Two Israeli soldiers captured seven killed in Hezbollah attack

[sigatoka]

1. Firstly it's he, not she, and parihaka, not parika.

2. Secondly, I'm not advocating constant withdrawl or in any way not resisting Israeli agression, but simply not letting your enemy know your intention beforehand and not providing an excuse for escalation and involvement when that helps no one.

3. What I WOULD say to Assad is if you need to make public utterances of this nature to give yourself backbone, you need a new job.

4. Under whatever scenario of escalation to a convential war, Syria looses, irrespective of whether Israel looses or not. Any leader under these circumstances should be trying to cool the situation down, not heat it up with meaningless public rhetoric.

1. So Jana is the only girl on this forum and shes left

2. What you are intending is not for constant withdrawal, but the effect of what you are suggesting IS constant withdrawal.

Telling the opponent of your intentions in this case doesnt increase but rather Decreases the chances of escalation.

3. The public utterance is the "correct" move to make.

4. True, and that is why Syrian tanks are not going to be storming into the Golan heights or Syrian planes in Israel or Syrian Artillery shells being the first to fly into Israel.

I wonder if you have ever experienced school bullying. Its usually the physically weak children who are bullied for pocket money (a given). But theres another characteristic as well, these chilren are the ones who never resist.

Every time the bully comes up, they face two choices to fight and keep money or not to fight and give money. Every time its rational for them to give the money.

Take a step back, even though at each turn giving the money is efficient, in the long run it is not. At the first turn if the weak child fights (and loses) the cost of the fight usually for the bully is not enuf for the petty pocket money (even if he wins the fight).

Take another step back, what if before the bully ever comes to him (but he knows the bully is coming) the weak child tells the entire class that he will fight.

Now the weak child cant back down. (too humiliating). Sum1 from class runs up and tells the bully what happened. The bully now knows that

1. The weak child is going to fight because it will be too humiliating for him to back down
2. The pocket money is not worth the fight.

The weak child doesnt fight at all. The key to this story is Communication (or signalling as known in game theory) . If someone from the class hadnt told the bully about the weak child's Committment, the fight would happen.

In a similar fashion Syria's Committment is ineffective unless its Signalled (communicated) to Israel. In Syria's case, the Committment and the Signalling happens in the one Action. The Committment happens in the broadcast (to the school children) , the bully is also informed in the broadcast.

 

[parihaka]

1. So Jana is the only girl on this forum and shes left

2. What you are intending is not for constant withdrawal, but the effect of what you are suggesting IS constant withdrawal.

Telling the opponent of your intentions in this case doesnt increase but rather Decreases the chances of escalation.

3. The public utterance is the "correct" move to make.

4. True, and that is why Syrian tanks are not going to be storming into the Golan heights or Syrian planes in Israel or Syrian Artillery shells being the first to fly into Israel.

I wonder if you have ever experienced school bullying. Its usually the physically weak children who are bullied for pocket money (a given). But theres another characteristic as well, these chilren are the ones who never resist.

Every time the bully comes up, they face two choices to fight and keep money or not to fight and give money. Every time its rational for them to give the money.

Take a step back, even though at each turn giving the money is efficient, in the long run it is not. At the first turn if the weak child fights (and loses) the cost of the fight usually for the bully is not enuf for the petty pocket money (even if he wins the fight).

Take another step back, what if before the bully ever comes to him (but he knows the bully is coming) the weak child tells the entire class that he will fight.

Now the weak child cant back down. (too humiliating). Sum1 from class runs up and tells the bully what happened. The bully now knows that

1. The weak child is going to fight because it will be too humiliating for him to back down
2. The pocket money is not worth the fight.

The weak child doesnt fight at all. The key to this story is Communication (or signalling as known in game theory) . If someone from the class hadnt told the bully about the weak child's Committment, the fight would happen.

In a similar fashion Syria's Committment is ineffective unless its Signalled (communicated) to Israel. In Syria's case, the Committment and the Signalling happens in the one Action. The Committment happens in the broadcast (to the school children) , the bully is also informed in the broadcast.

Again, I'm not advocating weakness.
It's a very long time since I was in school but I've had more than my fair share of fights.
I maintain a polite disposition and some have taken this for weakness. If their aggression is contained to words I have no problem because words mean nothing, if they physically attack me they find a fist in their face.
I've learnt when to fight and when to run away, I've learnt that when someone is looking for a fight it's better not to announce that I'm ready for it but to simply strike without warning if the need arises.
I've learnt that when a 'bully' attacks you doing the unexpected defeats them.
Above all else, I have learnt to speak softly and carry a big stick.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Syria is not escalating is because she would be on the receiving end.

In every war, the Arabs though united, have lost to Israel and therefore the spectre of another defeat haunts the Arabs and it will be more humiliating since the Islamic fundamentalists have been able to make things difficult for the US elsewhere in the Arab world. So, if the Arabs lose a conventional war, nothing could be more humiliating.

Further, the Hizbollah is a Shia majority organisation. Syria and Iran may be interested, the remainder of the Arab world are Sunnis and there is no love lost between them. Further, the remainder of the Arab world, who are Sunnis (Saudi, Egypt, the Shiekdoms etc) are all beholden to the US. Obviously, they do not want to upset the US.

And so the whole show rolls on......verbally!

 

[Owais]

Israel to resume full air raids in Lebanon early Wednesday

JERUSALEM: Israel will resume full air attacks against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon early Wednesday, Trade Minister Eli Yishai told army radio.

"At the end of the 48 hours, the air force will continue to operate with all its power and all of its forces," said Yishai, a member of Israel's security cabinet.

He was referring to a 48-hour halt in air attacks to which Israel agreed after its raid in the Lebanese village of Qana Sunday, which killed 52 civilians, most of them women and children, and sparked world outrage.

Israel has said the two-day halt entered into effect at 2300 GMT Sunday, meaning that it runs out at 2:00 am Wednesday (2300 GMT Tuesday).

Yishai, from the right-wing Shas party, said he doubted the United Nations would secure a ceasefire this week in the 21-day Lebanon offensive and said the Jewish state would not feel obliged to respect it if they do.

"Israel is not obliged to stand at attention and cease its operations if the United Nations decide on a ceasefire.

"We will continue to react and will not accept a ceasefire except on our conditions."

"I suppose that our American friends will use their veto in such a case," he said, referring to Israel's main ally, the United States, which holds veto power on the UN Security Council.

"This is not the first war that we have waged. That's why we will continue to do everything necessary and we will not stop until we attain our goals," he said.

 

[Owais]

Hezbollah claims 35 Israeli soldiers killed as fighting rages in Lebanon


TEL AVIV: Heavy fighting raged Tuesday in the Lebanese border village of Aita al-Shaab, and Hezbollah television said 35 Israeli soldiers had been killed or wounded in the fighting.

Israeli warplanes pounded Shiite Lebanese villages in many areas along the border and struck Hezbollah strongholds deep inside the country.

Arab satellite channels carried live pictures as Israeli forces poured in a relentless bombardment of artillery shells on Aita al-Shaab, the town from which Hezbollah guerrillas crossed the border on July 12 and captured two Israeli soldiers and killed three others, igniting the conflict.

The Hezbollah-run channel, reported that guerrilla fighters had Israeli forces pinned down and unable to evacuate the wounded soldiers. That apparently prompted the heavy renewed fighting.

Huge clouds of smoke rose above the village and artillery concussions echoed across the valleys.

The Hezbollah television said fighters had ambushed Israeli soldiers near the town's main school building.

Israeli authorities have not publicly commented on the Al-Manar claim of casualties.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Most unfortunate.

 

[Averroes]

Yesha Rabbinical Council: During time of war, enemy has no innocents

The Yesha Rabbinical Council announced in response to an IDF attack in Kfar Qanna that "according to Jewish law, during a time of battle and war, there is no such term as 'innocents' of the enemy."

All of the discussions on Christian morality are weakening the spirit of the army and the nation and are costing us in the blood of our soldiers and civilians," the statement said. (Efrat Weiss)

(07.30.06, 17:37)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3283720,00.html

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Middle East does breed intolerance.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Already put.

Syria and Iran are testing the waters at the expense of Lebanon.

 

[parihaka]

Already put.

Syria and Iran are testing the waters at the expense of Lebanon.

To borrow from OoE: Syria and Iran will fight to the last drop of Lebanese blood.

 

[A.Rahman]

Israeli PM orders army to prepare for deeper Lebanon push
(AFP)

11 August 2006


JERUSALEM - Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert ordered the army Friday to prepare for launching its expanded ground offensive in Lebanon after diplomatic efforts stumbled, a foreign ministry spokesman said.
‘The prime minister this afternoon decided to implement the cabinet decision from Wednesday and ordered the Israeli Defence Forces to act against Hezbollah positions in the south from which rocket barrages are launched against Israeli cities,’ Marc Regev told AFP.
He did not say when the expanded operation would be launched.
The statement came as diplomats huddled at the UN headquarters in New Yorktrying to hammer out a resolution to end the month-long war but Regev stressed that Israel was still engaged in political efforts to end the bloodshed.
‘This decision does not exclude a diplomatic solution,’ he said.
‘On the contrary, Israel is closely following the discussions at the UN Security Council but the absence until now of concrete steps from the international community makes it necessary for Israel to act and defend its citizens,’ Regev added.
Diplomatic sources told AFP that US and French negotiators had reached agreement on a text but that it now needed the accord of their governments and Israel and Lebanon.
The decision to prepare the expanded ground push came after Lebanon rejected key elements of the proposed text, a senior Israeli government official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
‘This decision was made after the Lebanese government, under pressure from Hezbollah, rejected some crucial elements in the draft resolution to be presented to the UN Security Council,’ he said.
‘We cannot wait indefinitely for Lebanon’s goodwill, especially since Lebanon rejected several key clauses in the document, including on the deployment of a robust international force in south Lebanon.’
On Wednesday, Israel’s security cabinet approved plans by the army and defence minister for battling Hezbollah deeper inside the country after failing to break the back of the Lebanese militia in four weeks of fighting.
Israel would double the number of troops currently operating inside south Lebanon for the expanded push, a senior military official told AFP.
Two divisions, or up to 20,000 troops are currently operating inside the country, he said.
‘Israel will reach the Litani River within a week and it will all be over by then,’ the official said.
The Litani runs from east to west across southern Lebanon and is in various locations between five and 30 kilometers (three and 19 miles) from the Israeli border.
‘Hezbollah is in a very bad situation right now and Israel should deal it a blow that will give it a stronger stand once a ceasefire is reached,’ the official said.
He warned that the upped offensive against the Shiite militant group, which has been putting up fierce resistance to Israel so far, would not be easy.
‘There are going to be a lot of (Israeli) casualties,’ he said.
A total of 120 Israelis, including 82 soldiers, have been killed since the massive month-old land, sea and air operation was launched in Lebanon after Hezbollah killed eight soldiers and seized another two in a cross-border raid on July 12.
Earlier Friday, Israel had said that most of its conditions were satisfied in the document being drafted by France and the United States in a bid to bring an end to the bloodshed.
Israel wants the resolution to include the release of its two captured soldiers, an agreement to keep Hezbollah beyond the Litani River, and the deployment of an international force in south Lebanon and along the Syrian-Lebanese border.

 

[A.Rahman]

US and Lebanon say ceasefire deal is close
(Reuters)

11 August 2006


BEIRUT - The United States and Lebanon said on Friday a deal on a United Nations resolution to end Israel’s month-old war with Hezbollah guerrillas was in sight.
‘We are now very, very close to agreement and our aspiration to have a vote at the end of the afternoon remains,’ Washington’s UN envoy John Bolton told reporters.
A senior Lebanese political source said Lebanese leaders had made significant progress in talks with a top US official in Beirut.
‘There is serious and major progress that could lead to an understanding in the next few hours. There are no more basic sticking points,’ the source said, without giving details.
The source was speaking after talks that US Assistant Secretary of State David Welch held with Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Shi’ite politician who has negotiated on Hezbollah’s behalf.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew to New York to try clinch agreement on a deal to stop the war, in which at least 1,026 people in Lebanon and 123 Israelis have been killed.
‘We are pushing to get this done today. We think we should be able to,’ said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.
French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy and British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett were also expected to join efforts to get a U.S.-French draft resolution adopted.
However, there was no let-up in the violence in Lebanon and Israel. Air raids killed another 15 people in Lebanon. An Israeli soldier was reported killed in fighting and Hezbollah rockets wounded seven people in northern Israel.
Air strikes

Israeli raids on a bridge near the border with Syria killed 12 people and wounded 18, hospital staff said. Witnesses said a second strike hit the bridge 15 minutes after the first had brought rescuers rushing to the scene.
Israeli strikes killed two people in the eastern Bekaa Valley and one in south Lebanon, medical sources said.
An Israeli soldier was killed and one was badly wounded in fighting with Hezbollah guerrillas, Al Arabiya television reported. The Israeli army had no immediate comment.
More bombs hit Beirut’s battered Shi’ite Muslim suburbs, hours after dawn raids on the capital. Many people fled the suburbs on Thursday after Israel dropped warning leaflets.
Hezbollah, whose seizure of two Israeli soldiers sparked the war on July 12, fired more than 55 rockets into Israel, wounding seven people, police and ambulance staff said.
Humanitarian agencies sought ways to get aid to an estimated 100,000 people trapped in southern Lebanon and the mayor of Tyre said the city could run out of food in two days.
UN and other convoys have been unable to deliver supplies since an Israeli air strike hit a Litani river bridge on Monday.
The U.S.-French draft resolution calls for a ‘cessation of hostilities’. Lebanon wants a quick Israeli pullout, but Israel says a strong multinational force must be deployed first.
The latest compromise calls for a phased Israeli withdrawal as the Lebanese army moves into the south. At the same time, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, would be reinforced by up to 15,000 French and other troops.
Range of issues

As part of the deal, Hezbollah would pull out from south of the Litani River, 20 km (13 miles) from the Israeli border.
A second resolution on a permanent ceasefire would follow within a month, tackling a range of outstanding issues, including the release of the two soldiers held by Hezbollah.
Israel will reserve the right to re-enter Lebanon in future if the proposed UN force fails to stop Hezbollah fighters from returning to the border, a top military official said on Friday.
In Marjayoun, a Christian town occupied by Israeli forces on Thursday, UNIFIL troops were trying to evacuate about 350 Lebanese soldiers and policemen from the local barracks under an agreement with the Israelis, officials said.
‘However, it seems that all the roads leading from Marjayoun are destroyed or blocked and it is not possible to leave the area at this time,’ UNIFIL spokesman Milos Strugar said.
Many of the estimated 3,000 people left in Marjayoun and nearby Qlaiah wanted to join the evacuation to the southern city of Sidon and hundreds of cars gathered near the army barracks.
‘We have no running water, no electricity, and we are running out of food. We have one bag of bread left,’ resident Rana Daher told Reuters by telephone.