Pakistani troops crossed Kashmir line, says India | World news | The Guardian
Pakistani troops crossed Kashmir line, says India
India says two soldiers killed in gunfight; Pakistan denies allegations of unprovoked firing across the line of control
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Jason Burke in Delhi
The Guardian, Wednesday 9 January 2013
An Indian security post near the India-Pakistan border in August. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
India accused Pakistan of sending troops across the line dividing the disputed region of Kashmir on Tuesday, and said two of its soldiers were killed and one wounded in a half-hour exchange of fire.
Military experts in Delhi said that if the reports were reliable – particularly the charge by one Indian military official that the mutilated body of a dead soldier was found in a forested area of the Himalayan territory – then escalation was possible unless the Indian government made a deliberate decision to "calm things down".
Policymakers in Washington will be concerned at any sign of possible conflict between Delhi and Islamabad, which would hugely complicate the already delicate task of withdrawing tens of thousands of troops from Afghanistan without destabilising the region.
A Pakistani army spokesman denied what it said were Indian allegations of "unprovoked firing" across the heavily militarised line of control between the two states.
Unconfirmed reports by Indian media that one of the soldiers was decapitated will inflame public opinion in India and increase the pressure on politicians to order a significant response.
"Regrettably, there is almost certain to be a major retaliation from the Indian side. I can't say what form it will take but this won't just be passed over," Arun Singh, a retired Indian army brigadier, told the Guardian.
However, Ajai Shukla, a military analyst and retired officer who served in Kashmir, said that although "in normal circumstances the Indians would now retaliate", he did not think Delhi would allow the situation to escalate.
Relations between the two countries, which have fought three wars, have improved in recent years as tensions caused by a terrorist attack by Pakistan-based extremists on the Indian commercial capital of Mumbai in 2008 have gradually eased.
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The peace process is going the way India wants it to. Pakistan is engaged on its western frontier, trade is increasing, agreements are being signed, there are no talks on Kashmir … Delhi will want things to calm down and go back to business as usual," Shukla said.
The incident came two days after a clash in which Pakistan said one of its soldiers was killed after an Indian incursion. India denied that its troops crossed the line.
Rajesh Kalia, spokesman for the Indian army's northern command, said Tuesday's "intrusion" was "a significant escalation … of ceasefire violations and infiltration attempts supported by [the] Pakistan army".
"Pakistan army troops, having taken advantage of thick fog and mist in the forested area, were moving towards [their] own posts when a … patrol spotted and engaged the intruders," he said. "The firefight between Pakistan and our troops continued for approximately half an hour, after which the intruders retreated back towards their side of line of control."
In 1999 Pakistan-backed Islamist infiltrators occupied the Kargil heights in northern Indian Kashmir in a surprise operation. India lost hundreds of troops before re-occupying the mountains after bitter fighting that almost triggered a fourth war.
Indian military officials said the frequency of cross-border clashes has increased in recent weeks, with at least half a dozen ceasefire violations in the past week alone. Officials in Delhi claim that Pakistan provokes such incidents to distract their troops to allow militants to cross the heavily defended de facto frontier.
Intelligence services in India have said they are puzzled by what appears to have been a large number of such infiltrations in recent months and the lack of resulting violence.
The insurgency that led to tens of thousands of casualties and widespread human rights abuses in the 1990s and early part of the last decade has faded and the bombings, shootings and suicide attacks once common in Indian Kashmir are now extremely rare. The Pakistani army recently said that it had reorientated its key strategic and tactical doctrines away from conflict with India – as had been the case for decades – and towards internal threats to the country's security.
However, despite the slowly improving ties and relative calm, firing and small skirmishes between the two countries along the line of control are frequently reported. The Indian army says eight of its soldiers were killed in 2012. While deaths are now relatively rare, a number of Pakistani civilians were wounded by Indian shelling in November. In October the Indian army said Pakistani troops killed three civilians when they fired across the frontier.
Singh said three factors might have led to the latest flare-up: local tensions between individual commanders, infiltration of militants along routes that are snow-free at this time of year, and the Pakistani army's desire to stir up trouble on the country's eastern frontier to shore up its position domestically and internationally.
Another possibility is a desire among Pakistani senior officers to send a strong signal to India that the recent doctrinal shift does not signify a new weakness in the 65-year face-off across the frontier. The earlier incident created no signs of escalating tensions and received relatively little media attention in either country.
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