Turkiye's annual inflation rate hits 69.97% in April

[Foinikas]

You can laugh fellow greek but when indkation in EU bursts out and spill over to Greece during late summer and early automn, remember what you laughed at.

Indkation?

 

[mulj]

Indkation?

Negative USA economy 1% this year and commodity prices hike up

what kind of logic is that

Exoprts are all tme high amd if they sign with Russia trade in Lira Ruble their economy will soar.

 

[comci]

Negative USA economy 1% this year and commodity prices hike up


Exoprts are all tme high amd if they sign with Russia trade in Lira Ruble their economy will soar.

Where does your economic hypothesis based of? You really need economic class 101 to understand the basic and the complexity of a macro economy.

 

[mulj]

Where does your economic hypothesis based of? You really need economic class 101 to understand the basic and the complexity of a macro economy.

So, what is wrong with said above?

 

[comci]

So, what is wrong with said above?

Whats wrong with your economic statements? A LOT!
I could lecture you about the issue you stated above, but somehow i really dont want to because i dont even know where to start...

 

[unrequitted_love_suzy]

persian immigrants doing money laundry in Turkyie
seriously this is the Abraham accords kicking in .

 

[mulj]

Whats wrong with your economic statements? A LOT!
I could lecture you about the issue you stated above, but somehow i really dont want to because i dont even know where to start...

Ok, might be so but as long as Turkie produce almost everything they will be fine and for containing inflation when they decide some of these measures will work out it like, interest rates, forex reserves and with some luck these would help to, Saudi money, Russian tourists/oligarch money.

 

[Indos]

Ok, might be so but as long as Turkie produce almost everything they will be fine and for containing inflation when they decide some of these measures will work out it like, interest rates, forex reserves and with some luck these would help to, Saudi money, Russian tourists/oligarch money.

This is the impact of having high inflation ( even 6-9 percent has already been regarded as high inflation, let alone 60 % ), just for comparison Indonesia inflation in whole 2021 is less than 2 percent, and for Jan-March 2022 the figure is increasing, but still below 3 %.

The economy will be slower, that is the result of this hyperinflation. And no, Turkey doesnt produce almost every thing, you can see their trade deficit which is quite large.

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Why the economy will be slower ? IMF has predicted Turkey growth ( nominal GDP/ current price) in 2022 about 2 percent ( PS : except for India, I believe IMF prediction is still reliable with small deviation of 0.1-1 percent from actual number that will come out later). This is much slower than last year growth.

1. Turkey currency will fall ( as it has been the case ),

A. This will lead to higher debt for both government and private sector who has issued obligation in USD or Euros.

B. Higher energy prices and many commodities as input for Turkey industries

C. High inflation ( Less money put as saving, which lead to higher interest rate for borrower-market mechanism )- higher interest rate effect NPL (Non Performing Loan) increase that can endanger the banking system and of course real sector (businesses/industry)

D. More money disbursed by Turkey gov to subsidize the people who put their money on bank (Lira account), this is the strategy that has stabilize Lira but will burden Government budget.

2. Higher inflation will make Turkish government and private sector bond yield ( interest ) in Lira increases, thus make them difficult to pay both the yield and the main bond. Bond yield in USD or Euro will be increased as well as putting money in Turkey will face greater risk than before ( see Turkey bond rating in S&P, Moody, Fitch rating etc.......)

3. Higher inflation will also means high interest rate and less consumption ( quantity ). Both has negative effect on business sector and Turkey citizen in general. High interest rate in borrowing will curb both investment and overall spending figure = reduce the economy growth

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The positive effect is only in export oriented business, but Turkey trade shows huge deficit, so it will have very negative consequent for at least medium term ( 5 years ) for economy in general

 

[mulj]

This is the impact of having high inflation ( even 6-9 percent has already been regarded as high inflation, let alone 60 % ), just for comparison Indonesia inflation in whole 2021 is less than 2 percent, and for Jan-March 2022 the figure is increasing, but still below 3 %.

The economy will be slower, that is the result of this hyperinflation. And no, Turkey doesnt produce almost every thing, you can see their trade deficit which is quite large.

Their trade balance is like that mostly because energy costs and other raw materials, when they open black sea gas fields (2023) and with russia deals that will be improved significantly and will not be problem.
All other measures that you mentioned will align accordingly.

 

[dBSPL]

While breaking the records of our Republic history with increases in exports, employment, investment, R&D, industrial capacity and production; It is an extremely myopic point of view to see the Turkish economy as only with an inflation problem.

 

[chinasun]

Low interest rates and excessive infrastructure have missed opportunities for industrial upgrading. However, the industrial foundation formed by the long-term economic development has enabled the Turkish economy to maintain a certain degree of resilience.

 

[Hellfire2006]

No,we had an economic crisis but stayed in the Euro. We had austerity measures imposed by the EU and IMF and it was more of a debt crisis rather than inflation.

Why would I add tips for Turks? For 10 years they had been mocking us with things like "haha Greece bankrupt,I buy your country for 1 euro" and other comments.

Greece's GDP to debt ratio is still humungous , your economy hasn't recovered yet . But does the inflation crisis in turkey somehow tilt the military balance in your region ? I don't think so . Turks are still the strongest regional power in the eastern mediterranean .

 

[Foinikas]

Greece's GDP to debt ratio is still humungous , your economy hasn't recovered yet . But does the inflation crisis in turkey somehow tilt the military balance in your region ? I don't think so . Turks are still the strongest regional power in the eastern mediterranean.

It's massive. The economy was getting a lot better,but everything happening the last 2 years kind of slowed it down a bit.

Yes,Turkey is still strong,but there's also Egypt. Egypt can match them militarily.
Erdoğan's crazy spending on weapons and huge projects is destroying Turkey's economy more and more.

 

[Hydration]

Ok, might be so but as long as Turkie produce almost everything they will be fine and for containing inflation when they decide some of these measures will work out it like, interest rates, forex reserves and with some luck these would help to, Saudi money, Russian tourists/oligarch money.

man your economic prespective is flawed. And no turkey imports almost all of its gas and oil needs the 2 most important

 

[dBSPL]

Exports in 2022 increased by 25% compared to the same month of the previous year and reached 24 billion dollars. Meanwhile, imports on April 2022 are 29.5 billion dollars. Foreign trade volume increased by 30% and reached approximately 53 billion dollars on a monthly basis.

The ratio of exports to imports is 79.5%. The ratio of exports to imports excluding energy is 101%.

The USA, Germany and the UK are the three major export markets. However, the real dramatic rise is experienced in emerging markets. For example, Turkey started to double its trade volume within short periods in the African continent.

The number of countries to which exports are made in Turkish lira in April 2022 is 157. The number of net exporting companies in April is approximately 7000. There is an increase of 59% volume, compared to the previous year.

The biggest shackle on Turkey's feet is its status as a net energy importer. We will solve this problem in 10 years. There are investments with a total value of more than 100 billion dollars and we will give very good news soon.

Trade expansion in Turkey is growing on an almost logarithmic scale. If you examine the 10-year and 20-year projections of international institutions, you can see Turkey's potential more clearly.

Turkey is a country accustomed to living with high inflation in its history. In the 70's and 90's there was much more difficult inflation pressure. The current inflationary pressure is driven by global risks and, more locally, by the exchange rate; also It has been accepted due to some insistence on monetary policies, but those who draw a macroeconomic picture only based on this data do not really understand economics at all.

If only one side of the coin is to be looked at, an interpretation can be produced for each macroeconomic structure in the desired direction by making selective perception.