Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Why would you hand over the Area to Assad on an empty promise to remove YPG control when you are in a better position now and can do so afterwards?

You underestimate how nationalistic Turkish people are and that no one is interested in a poor region being added to Turkey. Not going to happen.

Geographically speaking, the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor doesn't really put Turkey in a better position against the YPG. The Kurds to the east are protected by the Euphrates river as well as a substantial presence of American and French troops. The Kurds to west are protected by Afrin's rugged terrain.

Moreover, the Azaz-Jarabulus is filled with ISIS sleeper cells since most of the Euphrates Shield Syrian fighters are jihadists. In fact, another ISIS terrorist attack was carried out today in Azaz, which killed 20 FSA fighters. This is only a week after dozens of FSA fighters were killed by an ISIS suicide bomber in Sousyan.

So, technically speaking, Turkey's entry into the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor is meaningless with respect to using that area as a launchpad against the Kurds.

If Turkey hands the area over to Assad, then the YPG will never be able to connect the cantons again since they'll never fight a war against Assad's forces. That's out of question.

But the longer the Azaz corridor remains under Turkish control, the more likely it'll end up getting annexed into Turkey, which will ironically encourage the Kurds east of the Euphrates to declare independence and merge with their Iraqi Kurdish brethren.

And this looks increasingly likely since the Azaz corridor is mainly being settled by ethnic Turkmens right now, including many Sunni Iraqi Turkmens who've recently fled Tal Afar in order not to get caught by the Iraqi PMU.

Anyway, I think Turkey needs to stop playing the Sunni card and start playing more of the Turkmen card from now on. Ankara should ask Syria to drop the "Arab" from the country's official name and recognize Turkmen autonomy. If Damascus refuses to do that, then Turkey should annex the Turkmen areas.

 

[TheCamelGuy]

SAA controlling the whole country is the best scenario. The last that should happen is for erdogans peshmerge monkeys to rule northern Syria.

 

[HannibalBarca]

Geographically speaking, the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor doesn't really put Turkey in a better position against the YPG. The Kurds to the east are protected by the Euphrates river as well as a substantial presence of American and French troops. The Kurds to west are protected by Afrin's rugged terrain.

Moreover, the Azaz-Jarabulus is filled with ISIS sleeper cells since most of the Euphrates Shield Syrian fighters are jihadists. In fact, another ISIS terrorist attack was carried out today in Azaz, which killed 20 FSA fighters. This is only a week after dozens of FSA fighters were killed by an ISIS suicide bomber in Sousyan.

So, technically speaking, Turkey's entry into the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor is meaningless with respect to using that area as a launchpad against the Kurds.

If Turkey hands the area over to Assad, then the YPG will never be able to connect the cantons again since they'll never fight a war against Assad's forces. That's out of question.

But the longer the Azaz corridor remains under Turkish control, the more likely it'll end up getting annexed into Turkey, which will ironically encourage the Kurds east of the Euphrates to declare independence and merge with their Iraqi Kurdish brethren.

And this looks increasingly likely since the Azaz corridor is mainly being settled by ethnic Turkmens right now, including many Sunni Iraqi Turkmens who've recently fled Tal Afar in order not to get caught by the Iraqi PMU.

Anyway, I think Turkey needs to stop playing the Sunni card and start playing more of the Turkmen card from now on. Ankara should ask Syria to drop the "Arab" from the country's official name and recognize Turkmen autonomy. If Damascus refuses to do that, then Turkey should annex the Turkmen areas.

Well... the future conflict will not come from FSA or any of his proxies or support... it's will come from SDF/YPG... SDF/YPG forces is made as for today of around 50-60% syrian arabs... and more they take grounds in the southest, more arabs they will get in, and as any entities with no official gov, they will get a conflict of power btw syrian arabs and YPG affiliated... At that moment if Turkey is still around the block, those new "group" that will be almost 30% of syria territory will seek new support... .
At that moment you will get this "new group"+ES+Idlib+Derra ( almost 50% of syria).

In the End the only solution in Syria is to get the israelis+GCC on your side... and Push the USA to play the fool...

Syria war is just beginning... kings and Queens are still in the making... The party has not begun yet...

That shit could end very bad... and not only in the Middle east region...

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Well... the future conflict will not come from FSA or any of his proxies or support... it's will come from SDF/YPG... SDF/YPG forces is made as for today of around 50-60% syrian arabs... and more they take grounds in the southest, more arabs they will get in, and as any entities with no official gov, they will get a conflict of power btw syrian arabs and YPG affiliated... At that moment if Turkey is still around the block, those new "group" that will be almost 30% of syria territory will seek new support... .
At that moment you will get this "new group"+ES+Idlib+Derra ( almost 50% of syria).

In the End the only solution in Syria is to get the israelis+GCC on your side... and Push the USA to play the fool...

Syria war is just beginning... kings and Queens are still in the making... The party has not begun yet...

LOL, the war's practically over.

The regional and world powers are simply trying to decide how to divide the Syrian pie.

As for the SDF consisting mostly of Arabs, yeah that's the point the YPG has been making all along rofl. The YPG Kurds aren't interested in seceding from Syria or partitioning the country. Most of them still identify with Syria. Their dream is to make Syria a federalized secular democracy that respects the cultural and linguistic rights of the Kurdish minority. The Arabs who are fighting alongside the Kurds in the SDF are also in favor of a secular democracy.

These secular groups aren't going to align with the Euphrates Shield / FSA due to ideological differences and due to the fact that America wants to use them to mold the future Syria in America's own image. The FSA is practically dead right now. It has been largely cannibalized by Al-Qaeda in Idlib.

It's over. From now on, you'll see an increasingly Turkmen-dominated Islamic-oriented Euphrates Shield militia, a Kurdish-led secular SDF militia, and an Alawite-led Syrian army. The Sunni Arabs are now largely being led by either ISIS or Al-Qaeda factions.

The real players in Syria right now are the Russians and Americans. The Turks and Iranians are playing second fiddle.

 

[what]

Geographically speaking, the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor doesn't really put Turkey in a better position against the YPG. The Kurds to the east are protected by the Euphrates river as well as a substantial presence of American and French troops. The Kurds to west are protected by Afrin's rugged terrain.

Moreover, the Azaz-Jarabulus is filled with ISIS sleeper cells since most of the Euphrates Shield Syrian fighters are jihadists. In fact, another ISIS terrorist attack was carried out today in Azaz, which killed 20 FSA fighters. This is only a week after dozens of FSA fighters were killed by an ISIS suicide bomber in Sousyan.

So, technically speaking, Turkey's entry into the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor is meaningless with respect to using that area as a launchpad against the Kurds.

If Turkey hands the area over to Assad, then the YPG will never be able to connect the cantons again since they'll never fight a war against Assad's forces. That's out of question.

But the longer the Azaz corridor remains under Turkish control, the more likely it'll end up getting annexed into Turkey, which will ironically encourage the Kurds east of the Euphrates to declare independence and merge with their Iraqi Kurdish brethren.

And this looks increasingly likely since the Azaz corridor is mainly being settled by ethnic Turkmens right now, including many Sunni Iraqi Turkmens who've recently fled Tal Afar in order not to get caught by the Iraqi PMU.

Anyway, I think Turkey needs to stop playing the Sunni card and start playing more of the Turkmen card from now on. Ankara should ask Syria to drop the "Arab" from the country's official name and recognize Turkmen autonomy. If Damascus refuses to do that, then Turkey should annex the Turkmen areas.

Linking of the cantons is off the table anyway with the SAA getting almost half of the Manbij area and soon cutting off SDF/YPG south of it. We should push towards Tel Rifaat and either liberate it or its moves in the hands of SAA. Win-Win. I'm in favor of dropping Sunnism for a Turkmen centered policy but that would be wrong to the Kurdish and Arab militas in ES.

Kurds are not in the majority in large parts of the SDF controlled area, according to General Townsed the SDF is not almost 60% Arab. What happens once the alliance has fullfilled its goal of kicking ISIS out is an entire different story. There will be no linked Kurdish territories with thousands of Arabs inbetween. The demographics speak against it. The way I see it the operation was successfull and will be a great bargain chip in potentially upcoming negotiations. If Assad wants to give autonomy to the Kurds, well than so will the Turkmens. No annexiation but needless to say that the Turkmen controlled area will be pretty good with Turkey.

LOL, the war's practically over.

The regional and world powers are simply trying to decide how to divide the Syrian pie.

As for the SDF consisting mostly of Arabs, yeah that's the point the YPG has been making all along rofl. The YPG Kurds aren't interested in seceding from Syria or partitioning the country. Most of them still identify with Syria. Their dream is to make Syria a federalized secular democracy that respects the cultural and linguistic rights of the Kurdish minority. The Arabs who are fighting alongside the Kurds in the SDF are also in favor of a secular democracy.

Thats a pretty bold claim. Assad has said many times before that he will conquer every inch of the country back and that autonomy is not negotiable.

 

[A friend]

Geographically speaking, the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor doesn't really put Turkey in a better position against the YPG. The Kurds to the east are protected by the Euphrates river as well as a substantial presence of American and French troops. The Kurds to west are protected by Afrin's rugged terrain.

Moreover, the Azaz-Jarabulus is filled with ISIS sleeper cells since most of the Euphrates Shield Syrian fighters are jihadists. In fact, another ISIS terrorist attack was carried out today in Azaz, which killed 20 FSA fighters. This is only a week after dozens of FSA fighters were killed by an ISIS suicide bomber in Sousyan.

So, technically speaking, Turkey's entry into the Azaz-Jarabulus corridor is meaningless with respect to using that area as a launchpad against the Kurds.

If Turkey hands the area over to Assad, then the YPG will never be able to connect the cantons again since they'll never fight a war against Assad's forces. That's out of question.

But the longer the Azaz corridor remains under Turkish control, the more likely it'll end up getting annexed into Turkey, which will ironically encourage the Kurds east of the Euphrates to declare independence and merge with their Iraqi Kurdish brethren.

And this looks increasingly likely since the Azaz corridor is mainly being settled by ethnic Turkmens right now, including many Sunni Iraqi Turkmens who've recently fled Tal Afar in order not to get caught by the Iraqi PMU.

Anyway, I think Turkey needs to stop playing the Sunni card and start playing more of the Turkmen card from now on. Ankara should ask Syria to drop the "Arab" from the country's official name and recognize Turkmen autonomy. If Damascus refuses to do that, then Turkey should annex the Turkmen areas.

-

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Linking of the cantons is off the table anyway with the SAA getting almost half of the Manbij area and soon cutting off SDF/YPG south of it. We should push towards Tel Rifaat and either liberate it or its moves in the hands of SAA. Win-Win. I'm in favor of dropping Sunnism for a Turkmen centered policy but that would be wrong to the Kurdish and Arab militas in ES.

Kurds are not in the majority in large parts of the SDF controlled area, according to General Townsed the SDF is not almost 60% Arab. What happens once the alliance has fullfilled its goal of kicking ISIS out is an entire different story. There will be no linked Kurdish territories with thousands of Arabs inbetween. The demographics speak against it. The way I see it the operation was successfull and will be a great bargain chip in potentially upcoming negotiations. If Assad wants to give autonomy to the Kurds, well than so will the Turkmens. No annexiation but needless to say that the Turkmen controlled area will be pretty good with Turkey.

Tell Rifaat already signed a security pact with the Syrian government, by the way. The Kurds of Afrin did that a couple of weeks ago. It's the same kind of security arrangement that they've recently made in rural Manbij.

It's mostly a symbolic security agreement to deter the Turks from launching large-scale offensives against these areas.

Anyhow, I had no idea there were Kurds fighting for the Euphrates Shield. :-/

I read a few days ago that Erdogan and Barzani are planning to introduce the Rojava Peshmerga to the Kurdish areas of northern Syria. If this successfully occurs, then both Kurdish and Turkmen autonomy can be realized and forced upon Assad.

But Assad isn't a dummy. He knows that Erdogan's Syrian Kurdish allies are more nationalistic and in favor of secession than the YPG, which is why he will always be aligned with the YPG Kurds instead.

 

[HannibalBarca]

LOL, the war's practically over.

The regional and world powers are simply trying to decide how to divide the Syrian pie.

As for the SDF consisting mostly of Arabs, yeah that's the point the YPG has been making all along rofl. The YPG Kurds aren't interested in seceding from Syria or partitioning the country. Most of them still identify with Syria. Their dream is to make Syria a federalized secular democracy that respects the cultural and linguistic rights of the Kurdish minority. The Arabs who are fighting alongside the Kurds in the SDF are also in favor of a secular democracy.

These secular groups aren't going to align with the Euphrates Shield / FSA due to ideological differences and due to the fact that America wants to use them to mold the future Syria in America's own image. The FSA is practically dead right now. It has been largely cannibalized by Al-Qaeda in Idlib.

It's over. From now on, you'll see an increasingly Turkmen-dominated Islamic-oriented Euphrates Shield militia, a Kurdish-led secular SDF militia, and an Alawite-led Syrian army. The Sunni Arabs are now largely being led by either ISIS or Al-Qaeda factions.

The real players in Syria right now are the Russians and Americans. The Turks and Iranians are playing second fiddle.

Nope princess... In any conflict someone will want more than the other... and it's at that moment that everything change.
Syrian war is not over yet, when ISIS is gone the real war will begun. No more escuses when daesh is gone...
As for YPG, they ideology is not an US one... they are commies. they play along bc they need support to gain influence, nothing more nothing else, they will side with anyone, even Ibliss, if they get what they want, they're ideology is the same as any extremist ideology.

Syrian conflict will still be here in the next decade or so, and it will be a field used for power among regional power, like afghanistan back in the soviet days...

And Syria is calm tbh right now... the conflict will get even more if the Yemen war end bf the syrian one... you will get another persona ( few tbh).

Kings and Queens are not born yet...

 

[what]

Tell Rifaat already signed a security pact with the Syrian government, by the way. The Kurds of Afrin did that a couple of weeks ago. It's the same kind of security arrangement that they've recently made in rural Manbij.

It's mostly a symbolic security agreement to deter the Turks from launching large-scale offensives against these areas.

Anyhow, I had no idea there were Kurds fighting for the Euphrates Shield. :-/

I read a few days ago that Erdogan and Barzani are planning to introduce the Rojava Peshmerga to the Kurdish areas of northern Syria. If this successfully occurs, then both Kurdish and Turkmen autonomy can be realized and forced upon Assad.

But Assad isn't a dummy. He knows that Erdogan's Syrian Kurdish allies are more nationalistic and in favor of secession than the YPG, which is why he will always be aligned with the YPG Kurds instead.

We have yet to see any proof of that kind of agreement. It was reported by pro government media and denied but YPG media.

There is at least one Kurdish group in ES.

You cant just introduce a milita into an area that is hostile to that milita. KDP Peshmerga are at the border removing Yezidi PKK groups.

On paper YPG is asipring for autonomy as much as the Iraqi Kurds were in the past, its just a pretense and prepartion for a future independence. Syria's fertile lands are in the hand of SDF and a lot of the ressources too. This conflict aint over. YPG and SAA are not allied. Kurds are no friends of Assad because of the repressions they faced under his rule. SAA troops are not allowed to move out of Qamsili, civilians can. The same is the case for SDF controlled areas. Make no mistake they do not support each other. They tolerate each other and dont attack each other for now.

Plus the SDF is a group that is bound to crumble once the common enemy is defeated and people realize that they've been fighting with people with many many different interests.

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

Nope princess... In any conflict someone will want more than the other... and it's at that moment that everything change.
Syrian war is not over yet, when ISIS is gone the real war will begun. No more escuses when daesh is gone...
As for YPG, they ideology is not an US one... they are commies. they play along bc they need support to gain influence, nothing more nothing else, they will side with anyone, even Ibliss, if they get what they want, they're ideology is the same as any extremist ideology.

Syrian conflict will still be here in the next decade or so, and it will be a field used for power among regional power, like afghanistan back in the soviet days...

And Syrian is calm tbh right now... the conglict will get even more if the Yemen war end bf the syrian one... you will get another persona ( few tbh).

Kings and Queens are not born yet...

ISIS isn't going to go away, I'm afraid. It'll simply morph into something deadlier in the coming decade.

ISIS is simply going to go into hiding in the short term and resort to terrorist attacks and insurgency until it reemerges as a stronger and more organized group all over again. Just look at Al-Qaeda in Iraq more than a decade ago. It was nowhere near as successful as ISIS has been in the last 3-4 years.

Salafi-jihadism is going to get worse and more successful in the coming years. ISIS's achievements in the last couple of years have overshadowed Al-Qaeda's achievements one decade ago. God knows what awaits this region in the 2020s. I only know that ISIS's successor will be more devastating and lasting, judging from the historical pattern.

The Sunni Arab extremists in the desert regions of eastern Syria and western Iraq will continue to revolt until they find a way to successfully build their own internationally-recognized state.

The main part of the Syrian war is over though. The rebel groups have been cannibalized by other militant factions. There is no Syrian struggle anymore. The only struggle today is between state actors and Islamic terrorist groups.

The war against Islamic terrorists is a long war. It won't end anytime soon, so all regional and global powers will continue to focus primarily on eliminating Islamic terrorists. Everything else will be secondary. Therefore you could argue that the Syrian civil war is all but over. There's no Syrian opposition on the ground anymore. You only have government forces and Islamic terrorists. The Kurdish YPG is the only exception, but the YPG will probably not last for a long time since it might end up getting replaced by Barzani's Peshmerga.

 

[HannibalBarca]

ISIS isn't going to go away, I'm afraid. It'll simply morph into something deadlier in the coming decade.

ISIS is simply going to go into hiding in the short term and resort to terrorist attacks and insurgency until it reemerges as a stronger and more organized group all over again. Just look at Al-Qaeda in Iraq more than a decade ago. It was nowhere near as successful as ISIS has been in the last 3-4 years.

Salafi-jihadism is going to get worse and more successful in the coming years. ISIS's achievements in the last couple of years have overshadowed Al-Qaeda's achievements one decade ago. God knows what awaits this region in the 2020s. I only know that ISIS's successor will be more devastating and lasting, judging from the historical pattern.

The Sunni Arab extremists in the desert regions of eastern Syria and western Iraq will continue to revolt until they find a way to successfully build their own internationally-recognized state.

The main part of the Syrian war is over though. The rebel groups have been cannibalized by other militant factions. There is no Syrian struggle anymore. The only struggle today is between state actors and Islamic terrorist groups.

The war against Islamic terrorists is a long war. It won't end anytime soon, so all regional and global powers will continue to focus primarily on eliminating Islamic terrorists. Everything else will be secondary. Therefore you could argue that the Syrian civil war is all but over. There's no Syrian opposition on the ground anymore. You only have government forces and Islamic terrorists. The Kurdish YPG is the only exception, but the YPG will probably not last for a long time since it might end up getting replaced by Barzani's Peshmerga.

ISIS/ ALqaeda or whatever khawarji ideology.. will always exist. it has begun in the time of the Prophet and they will End at the End of Time. Tbh they are necessity to all muslim, the Red line, we need them to exist at every generation, to remind us , where we shouldn't go, they're an evil need.

In the meantime, The so called Islamic rebels getting all the " moderate" rebels, will not last for eternity, they are fighting against them in the Idlib region, it will take time. And being "islamic" is not always a bad thing.. being a khawarji is... .

As for the Barzani rojava peshmerga, ( made by syrian kurds) they will play an important part in the reshaping of syria.. and IRaq... if Barzani stay in power ofc... .

And here my last info, for you who think Syrian war is over... They will be no Peace in Syria if Iraq does not have one... and the future is not good for the iraqi parts too... Barzani want what the iraqi chiite gov want... and who do you think the iraqi sunnis will choose? Barzani? Maliki allies? or? Nothing is over.. it has just begun...

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

We have yet to see any proof of that kind of agreement. It was reported by pro government media and denied but YPG media.

There is at least one Kurdish group in ES.

You cant just introduce a milita into an area that is hostile to that milita. KDP Peshmerga are at the border removing Yezidi PKK groups.

On paper YPG is asipring for autonomy as much as the Iraqi Kurds were in the past, its just a pretense and prepartion for a future independence. Syria's fertile lands are in the hand of SDF and a lot of the ressources too. This conflict aint over. YPG and SAA are not allied. Kurds are no friends of Assad because of the repressions they faced under his rule. SAA troops are not allowed to move out of Qamsili, civilians can. The same is the case for SDF controlled areas. Make no mistake they do not support each other. They tolerate each other and dont attack each other for now.

Plus the SDF is a group that is bound to crumble once the common enemy is defeated and people realize that they've been fighting with people with many many different interests.

It's possible that the SDF might fragment after ISIS is destroyed, but I personally don't think ISIS-style groups are going away anytime soon. They'll continue to pose a huge threat on civilian populations across large chunks of Syria, therefore the need for the SDF to remain intact will always be a priority for countries like Russia and the United States.

And as time goes by, the SDF subgroups will begin to share more and more common goals and ideologies. So far, all of them are against Islamism and prefer secularism, including the Arab factions of the SDF.

One thing that will work in the SDF's favor is the fact that the SDF has built a very tolerant and democratic model in northern Syria, which many groups are happy about.

For example, the Assyrians who are living in SDF-held territories enjoy more rights and freedoms than the Assyrians in other parts of Syria. Syriac is an official language and is taught in newly established schools. The same goes for the Chechens, Turkmens, Kurds, etc. So would these groups end up destroying a successful political system in northern Syria after the ISIS threat is mostly removed? I don't know. It's hard to tell what will happen.

If the SDF does crumble, then that will definitely benefit both Erdogan and Barzani. The Turks will no longer have a PKK-affiliated group along their border, and Barzani will then be able to send the Rojava Peshmerga into the Syrian Kurdish areas, which will then be incorporated into the KRG.

 

[HannibalBarca]

US SOF base btw Manbij and Raqqa... near cement plant

SOF base https://t.co/NM9IslKemv
and air/drone base https://t.co/u4QC75M16j

Enjoy

 

[Kuwaiti Girl]

ISIS/ ALqaeda or whatever khawarji ideology.. will always exist. it has begun in the time of the Prophet and they will End at the End of Time. Tbh they are necessity to all muslim, the Red line, we need them to exist at every generation, to remind us , where we shouldn't go, they're an evil need.

In the meantime, The so called Islamic rebels getting all the " moderate" rebels, will not last for eternity, they are fighting against them in the Idlib region, it will take time. And being "islamic" is not always a bad thing.. being a khawarji is... .

As for the Barzani rojava peshmerga, ( made by syrian kurds) they will play an important part in the reshaping of syria.. and IRaq... if Barzani stay in power ofc... .

And here my last info, for you who think Syrian war is over... They will be no Peace in Syria if Iraq does not have one... and the future is not good for the iraqi parts too... Barzani want what the iraqi chiite gov want... and who do you think the iraqi sunnis will choose? Barzani? Maliki allies? or? Nothing is over.. it has just begun...

It's over and not over at the same time, if you know what I mean lol.

The conflict might not be over, but the war and actual fighting is drawing to an end.

People are exhausted. All sides are weak and exhausted right now. Nobody has the upper hand. All sides are dependent on world powers, such as Russia and America, for political and military support. Even the regional powers, such as Iran and Turkey, are dependent on Russia and America for any moves they make on the ground.

So it's both over and not over at the same time. Tensions will continue, no doubt, but don't expect the fighting to intensify. Peak fighting is over. It'll be just like the situation in Somalia, Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh.

What you're describing is basically the fragmentation of Iraq and Syria. It may not be an official fragmentation, but it'll be de facto.

Iraqi Kurdistan will declare independence, which nobody will recognize, and then unofficially annex northeastern Syria via the Rojava Peshmerga.

The Shias of Iraq will be too exhausted to go to war with the Kurds, especially if they see that there aren't enough Kurds who are willing to side with the PKK instead of the Peshmerga. Baghdad will continue to act like it has power over Iraqi Kurdistan, but in reality it won't.

Iraqis in general are sick of the Kurdish issue and couldn't care less anyway.

The Turks will also unofficially carve a Turkmen region out of northwestern Syria, which Damascus will lay claim to but won't be able to enter.

The Druze area in southern Syria will increasingly fall into Jordan's economic and political orbit, but it'll still officially be aligned with Damascus.

The Russians will increase their cultural influence and presence in the Alawite coastal region, which is what they primarily cared about since day one.

Israel will be the biggest winner of course. Israel will continue to keep the Golan Heights and then focus on fighting ISIS militants in the Sinai Peninsula via their drones. They'll care less and less about respecting Egypt's sovereignty in that area.

So you'll end up with the same kinds of maps that the RAND Corporation and Wilson Center think tanks drew:

 

[HannibalBarca]

It's over and not over at the same time, if you know what I mean lol.

The conflict might not be over, but the war and actual fighting is drawing to an end.

People are exhausted. All sides are weak and exhausted right now. Nobody has the upper hand. All sides are dependent on world powers, such as Russia and America, for political and military support. Even the regional powers, such as Iran and Turkey, are dependent on Russia and America for any moves they make on the ground.

So it's both over and not over at the same time. Tensions will continue, no doubt, but don't expect the fighting to intensify. Peak fighting is over. It'll be just like the situation in Somalia, Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh.

What you're describing is basically the fragmentation of Iraq and Syria. It may not be an official fragmentation, but it'll be de facto.

Iraqi Kurdistan will declare independence, which nobody will recognize, and then unofficially annex northeastern Syria via the Rojava Peshmerga.

The Shias of Iraq will be too exhausted to go to war with the Kurds, especially if they see that there aren't enough Kurds who are willing to side with the PKK instead of the Peshmerga. Baghdad will continue to act like it has power over Iraqi Kurdistan, but in reality it won't.

Iraqis in general are sick of the Kurdish issue and couldn't care less anyway.

The Turks will also unofficially carve a Turkmen region out of northwestern Syria, which Damascus will lay claim to but won't be able to enter.

The Druze area in southern Syria will increasingly fall into Jordan's economic and political orbit, but it'll still officially be aligned with Damascus.

The Russians will increase their cultural influence and presence in the Alawite coastal region, which is what they primarily cared about since day one.

Israel will be the biggest winner of course. Israel will continue to keep the Golan Heights and then focus on fighting ISIS militants in the Sinai Peninsula via their drones. They'll care less and less about respecting Egypt's sovereignty in that area.

So you'll end up with the same kinds of maps that the RAND Corporation and Wilson Center think tanks drew:

The Syrian war can't be fully predicted, since other key states could enter.
The problem in our TIme is that Bipolarity is over , RU and US allies/enemies are the same, you don't have one side vs another and that's the problem, ppl will fall in madness, since in the near future , no one will know who is an ally and who is not... . GCC are getting into Hands with RU and China, Iran don't like it while they are RU allies. UAE & Iran are getting friend with Turkey, therefore with Israel and the US and so and so on... In the End, someone will not be able to support the situation and will explode... the Q is who?

It's over and not over at the same time, if you know what I mean lol.

The conflict might not be over, but the war and actual fighting is drawing to an end.

People are exhausted. All sides are weak and exhausted right now. Nobody has the upper hand. All sides are dependent on world powers, such as Russia and America, for political and military support. Even the regional powers, such as Iran and Turkey, are dependent on Russia and America for any moves they make on the ground.

So it's both over and not over at the same time. Tensions will continue, no doubt, but don't expect the fighting to intensify. Peak fighting is over. It'll be just like the situation in Somalia, Cyprus and Nagorno-Karabakh.

What you're describing is basically the fragmentation of Iraq and Syria. It may not be an official fragmentation, but it'll be de facto.

Iraqi Kurdistan will declare independence, which nobody will recognize, and then unofficially annex northeastern Syria via the Rojava Peshmerga.

The Shias of Iraq will be too exhausted to go to war with the Kurds, especially if they see that there aren't enough Kurds who are willing to side with the PKK instead of the Peshmerga. Baghdad will continue to act like it has power over Iraqi Kurdistan, but in reality it won't.

Iraqis in general are sick of the Kurdish issue and couldn't care less anyway.

The Turks will also unofficially carve a Turkmen region out of northwestern Syria, which Damascus will lay claim to but won't be able to enter.

The Druze area in southern Syria will increasingly fall into Jordan's economic and political orbit, but it'll still officially be aligned with Damascus.

The Russians will increase their cultural influence and presence in the Alawite coastal region, which is what they primarily cared about since day one.

Israel will be the biggest winner of course. Israel will continue to keep the Golan Heights and then focus on fighting ISIS militants in the Sinai Peninsula via their drones. They'll care less and less about respecting Egypt's sovereignty in that area.

So you'll end up with the same kinds of maps that the RAND Corporation and Wilson Center think tanks drew:

It has begun Let the party begin... want pop corn princess?

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