Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

[mahatir]

He doesnt care about PKK, but he does care about Deir Ez-Zur. He tried to reach Deir Ez-Zur with Palmyra way, they failed.

Give Assad a guarantee about "we will give you constant AF and howitzer support when you capture Qamisli, Hasakah, and then connect to Deir Ez-Zur and then connect it to Palmyra, and let SAA armor go through our territory, and constant ceasefire between FSA-SAA, and co-operation against Al-Nusra terrorists => will be a great deal.

Naive thinking , most of Assad forces are actually foreign shia militias loyal to Iran . Do you think iran will accept using their own militias to act as border guards for Turkey against PKK/PYD ? if that was the case then they would have cleaned qandil decades ago right on their border.

Assad does not have enough loyal forces to hold big cities , this war will continue for decades . Groups like Isil will never be destroyed as long as Mullah regime in Iran exists . Islamic terrorism will not end until a new ideology comes out to erase it , Americans spent over a decade in Afghanistan to destroy Taliban and they failed , before that soviet union spent over decade with the same result .

The only best option I see is carry out a new Euphrate shield operation in Riqqah " Tal-Abyad " after completing operation west of the river .

I was going to write it. Cause its the most important point for isis to keep alive in syria.

Another thing is go to damascus. But russian will appear then. They lost al bab and wouldnt risk it for rakkah

Isil existed since 2003 , they do not need to hold cities to survive . The group started deep inside the caves and isolated settlements in the deserts of Syria and Iraq where no one lives .

Remember Isil started as a clandestine terrorist organization relying on sleeping cells to carry out attacks against opponents . They only transformed recently into a state when they saw central governments in Syria and Iraq crumbling .

They will fight hard for Riqqah just like Mosul to inflict the largest losses on PYD as its the last city they hold in either Iraq and Syria .

From the latest events I see now Isis are retreating back to the desert where they came from . The group will start again rebuilding itself and will carry out a long insurgency to weaken the new forces whether PYD , Iraq Army and Syrian army before launching a new attack to take over regions they lost past 2 years .

This is like a long ping-pong game that never ends , the new difference here is now Isil will have to deal with weaker opponents in the future after they managed to weaken and destroy the national armies of Syria and Iraq .

After the Americans completely withdraw from middle east under Trump you will see this game replicating itself again .

 

[AnatolianEagle]

I guess you're active in this thread or similar threads. I've the feeling and I would like to say that were preparing for the next opp. Mid winter after el bab.
1. Both sides Turkiye and isis will be a pressure on pkk. The issue is if US is going to be there? 2.what could happen after?

U Turk btw? @mahatir

 

[brokk]

Just read that the Turkish tanks that were attacked, weapons used was US made TOW's (that they graciously continue to drop to the PYD/YPG, next they will be dropping 'Stingers'), I think there should be a very serious military reaction to this.

 

[AnatolianEagle]

Just read that the Turkish tanks that were attacked, weapons used was US made TOW's (that they graciously continue to drop to the PYD/YPG, next they will be dropping 'Stingers'), I think there should be a very serious military reaction to this.

we like to hit planes

 

[mahatir]

I was going to write it. Cause its the most important point for isis to keep alive in syria.

Another thing is go to damascus. But russian will appear then. They lost al bab and wouldnt risk it for rakkah

They will never attack a big city like Damascus , Isis main focus in Syria is on central and eastern provinces like Homs , Hassaka and Riqqah where not many people live . They use these regions as a launching pad to launch attacks against central governments .

I guess you're active in this thread or similar threads. I've the feeling and I would like to say that were preparing for the next opp. Mid winter after el bab.
1. Both sides Turkiye and isis will be a pressure on pkk. The issue is if US is going to be there? 2.what could happen after?

U Turk btw? @mahatir

Are you referring Mid Winder operation against PKK in southern eastern Turkey countryside ?

The USA under Trump would still protect PYD but they would be willing to reduce the land they hold .

1) Give up Tal-Abyad ( Riqqah border regions with Turkey )
2) let the Arab component of SDF control Riqqah city .

They will work though on protecting PYD in Hassakah .

The Trump administration in my thinking will be focusing more on Targeting and Weakening Iran in the region , especially that the new officials nominated for security positions such as secretary of defence James Mattis are Anti-Iran .

I am expecting a war where Israel will eventually destroy hezbollah in Lebanon , especially with Trump in office he will not criticize collateral damage caused against civilians .

 

[AnatolianEagle]

They will never attack a big city like Damascus , Isis main focus in Syria is on central and eastern provinces like Homs , Hassaka and Riqqah where not many people live . They use these regions as a launching pad to launch attacks against central governments .


Are you referring Mid Winder operation against PKK in southern eastern Turkey countryside ?

The USA under Trump would still protect PYD but they would be willing to reduce the land they hold .

1) Give up Tal-Abyad ( Riqqah border regions with Turkey )
2) let the Arab component of SDF control Riqqah city .

They will work though on protecting PYD in Hassakah .

The Trump administration in my thinking will be focusing more on Targeting and Weakening Iran in the region , especially that the new officials nominated for security positions such as secretary of defence James Mattis are Anti-Iran .

1. I was reffering a new opp. In Syria like SE of Turkiye and will start in winter just a guess.
2. Since irogn is on topic What do you think about south Azerbaycan? Is it likely to be apart from irogn. I can see an strong agreement between Azerbaycan Turkiye Israel and more.

Note: dont know whats happening to my keyboard whenever I write irogn.

 

[mahatir]

1. I was reffering a new opp. In Syria like SE of Turkiye and will start in winter just a guess.
2. Since irogn is on topic What do you think about south Azerbaycan? Is it likely to be apart from irogn. I can see an strong agreement between Azerbaycan Turkiye Israel and more.

Note: dont know whats happening to my keyboard whenever I write irogn.

1) From current events I only see an Attack on Manbij , if your referring about Eastern Euphrates I dont think that would happen until an agreement is reached with Trump on which PYD controlled regions they are willing put a blind eye on if Turkey is to attack .

2) Iran is a strong country , its not like Syria and Iraq . The only way to cripple Iran is by containing and imposing harsh sanctions until it collapses from within similar to what happened with Soviet Union . What could be done is instead working on destroying Iran main proxy Hezbollah in southern lebanon through Israel .

3) Russia and Iran can never be allies , they are after all competitors in every dimension whether through gas exports markets or imposing their version of rule in Syria after war is over . Russia will seek to reduce Iran influence in Syria after the war is over , Russia's indirect approval for Eurphrates shield is one of the ways they seek balance forces in Syria while maintaining their own interests and upper hand on events on the ground .

4) You need to remember Syria is the last Arab country Russia maintains influence over after they lost Egypt after camp david and later Libya and Iraq . Losing Syria would mean Russia would be out of the middle east for good .

 

[AnatolianEagle]

1) From current events I only see an Attack on Manbij , if your referring about Eastern Euphrates I dont think that would happen until an agreement is reached with Trump on which PYD controlled regions they are willing put a blind eye on if Turkey is to attack .

2) Iran is a strong country , its not like Syria and Iraq . The only way to cripple Iran is by containing and imposing harsh sanctions until it collapses from within similar to what happened with Soviet Union . What could be done is instead working on destroying Iran main proxy Hezbollah in southern lebanon through Israel .

3) Russia and Iran can never be allies , they are after all competitors in every dimension whether through gas exports markets or imposing their version of rule in Syria after war is over . Russia will seek to reduce Iran influence in Syria after the war is over , Russia's indirect approval for Eurphrates shield is one of the ways they seek balance forces in Syria while maintaining their own interests and upper hand on events on the ground .

4) You need to remember Syria is the last Arab country Russia maintains influence over after they lost Egypt after camp david and later Libya and Iraq . Losing Syria would mean Russia would be out of the middle east for good .

What a nice analyst. At least im on the same track. But I believe it it is likely to happen it can take some time 10 years maybe who knows.
Thnks for everything!

 

[mahatir]

What a nice analyst. At least im on the same track. But I believe it it is likely to happen it can take some time 10 years maybe who knows.
Thnks for everything!

https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2015-2025

Read stratfor report about the world especially Turkey in the next 10 years.

 

[brokk]

1) From current events I only see an Attack on Manbij , if your referring about Eastern Euphrates I dont think that would happen until an agreement is reached with Trump on which PYD controlled regions they are willing put a blind eye on if Turkey is to attack .

I really don't think so, we are at a point that is almost existentially vital for Turkey and it will attack regardless. Turkey in the last MGK meeting made targets of all PYD/YPG strongholds. I'm pretty sure that Russia would support this.. and the US, EU well they made their intentions pretty clear providing anti-tank, anti-air weaponry to the YPG as ISIS doesn't have any aircraft of consequence for these to be used against.

2) Iran is a strong country , its not like Syria and Iraq . The only way to cripple Iran is by containing and imposing harsh sanctions until it collapses from within similar to what happened with Soviet Union . What could be done is instead working on destroying Iran main proxy Hezbollah in southern lebanon through Israel .

Agreed, but Iran played its hand very wrong, when it began supporting PKK/YPG/PYD.... which will mean that Turkey will join into an embargo against them, unlike the last time.

3) Russia and Iran can never be allies , they are after all competitors in every dimension whether through gas exports markets or imposing their version of rule in Syria after war is over . Russia will seek to reduce Iran influence in Syria after the war is over , Russia's indirect approval for Eurphrates shield is one of the ways they seek balance forces in Syria while maintaining their own interests and upper hand on events on the ground .

Some Russian officers serve their last year of schooling in rocket bases in Iran, Iran is an ally of Russia however, it is also a rival to a market that is vital for Russia.. So a love - hate relationship, having Iran ally with the US would be bad, the only counter balance to which would be allying fully with Turkey... whichever way this goes is going to be interesting. At the moment it looks like its forming and going towards a triangle; Russia, Turkey and Iran as allies...

4) You need to remember Syria is the last Arab country Russia maintains influence over after they lost Egypt after camp david and later Libya and Iraq . Losing Syria would mean Russia would be out of the middle east for good .

Not really, but it would make things a little more difficult. I doubt that any puppet regime will trust those that destroy their own puppets... Russia will just have to wait till the americans make an *** of themselves, as they always do.

https://www.stratfor.com/forecast/decade-forecast-2015-2025

Read stratfor report about the world especially Turkey in the next 10 years.

It makes too many assumptions, and it doesn't see Turkey forming military alliances with Russia, and utterly forgets about direct US and EU involvement against Turkey. Turkey is a major regional actor today what it will morph into in the next decade who knows..

 

[mahatir]

It makes too many assumptions, and it doesn't see Turkey forming military alliances with Russia, and utterly forgets about direct US and EU involvement against Turkey. Turkey is a major regional actor today what it will morph into in the next decade who knows..

I agree with 2 main points in the report , decline of China economically and the end of Nation states in the Arab world .
As this report is made my an American Think Tank they would tend to bash Russia .

What will take Russia down the fall in hydocarbons prices and its foreign wars in Syria and Ukraine . The main aim behind the USA is to make Russia waste its resources on wars on 2 fronts while creating a propaganda that Russia is an aggressive state to push countries on Russia's borders into joining Nato or opening their bases for US troops.

The Americans are only using PYD as a tool to push Turkey into taking an Anti-Russian position regarding events in Eastern Europe and Black Sea .

The financial cost of Syrian war is a burden on both Russia and Especially Iran .

The deal between Russia and Turkey was a good step in reducing the costs of this war but if both powers manage to keep Iran out of Syria then it would be much easier to reach a grand deal that will end the war and end support for rebel groups against Assad.

You need to understand Iran and Isis are two coins of the same side .

 

[kartal1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/808580533399781376

Did I heard "thirteen" with a native accent on 0:09? Please tell me there are no americans and our guys just speak english with a good accent.

 

[Arabic_Ottoman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/808580533399781376

Did I heard "thirteen" with a native accent on 0:09? Please tell me there are no americans and our guys just speak english with a good accent.

most likely from the device they used. (sounds robotic)

 

[brokk]

I agree with 2 main points in the report , decline of China economically and the end of Nation states in the Arab world .
As this report is made my an American Think Tank they would tend to bash Russia .

What will take Russia down the fall in hydocarbons prices and its foreign wars in Syria and Ukraine . The main aim behind the USA is to make Russia waste its resources on wars on 2 fronts while creating a propaganda that Russia is an aggressive state to push countries on Russia's borders into joining Nato or opening their bases for US troops.

Well, I guess the joke is on them on that one...
- The CIA has played with fire and will get burnt very badly as Turkey is going anti-NATO, anti-US, anti-EU very fast, with all these FETO/Gulen stuff still echoing and the US / EU still supporting them, along with the US directly supporting and providing arms to the YPG and other terrorist elements active in Iraq, Syria, Turkey.
- Russia and Turkey are being forced together to be allies both by the US and by the EU, and this will happen like it or not.. When that happens and I think it is already happening.. then the flank of NATO will be wide open, there is no country that can replace Turkey, not Italy, not Spain, not France... with Turkey gone, I think the whole of the balkans including Greece will also leave NATO....

The Americans are only using PYD as a tool to push Turkey into taking an Anti-Russian position regarding events in Eastern Europe and Black Sea .

I don't agree, they were aiding the PKK in the 90's, and throughout the years they supported almost all of their offshoots, PYD/YPG is merely one of those. This and all other negativity factors have in fact had the opposite effect as mutual relations with Russia and Turkey have improved, whilst relations with the west have dropped to all time lows....

The financial cost of Syrian war is a burden on both Russia and Especially Iran .
The deal between Russia and Turkey was a good step in reducing the costs of this war but if both powers manage to keep Iran out of Syria then it would be much easier to reach a grand deal that will end the war and end support for rebel groups against Assad.

Perhaps.

You need to understand Iran and Isis are two coins of the same side .

Iran is a country pursuing its own interests in whatever way it can, good or bad that isn't the point. But Daesh/ISIS is a pure terrorist group so I really don't see any similarity. However PKK(and all its offshoots, and whichever name they come up with next) are two sides of the same coin with Daesh/ISIS.

 

[Arabic_Ottoman]

A group of our soldiers in Syria were jumping on and kicking a POW. The guy was saying Abi Abi Abi so that tells me he is probably from Turkey fighting in Syria with PYD. The film abruptly cuts off when the soldiers look alarmed-scared and say who is coming.

The soldiers should be relieved of their duty to make an example of them. We pride our selves on having a disciplined and just military, soldiers like that have no place in our armed forces. I can see roughing the guy up a little bit kind of lightly but the physical damage they were doing was too much. The guy might even have internal organ damage. Definitely some broken bones. The government should make a statement about it and say that the men were punished.

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Euphrates Shield forces capture a weapons depot in Al-Bab.

any updates on this?.