Thanks bro, good to be back. Well, I was on prolonged vacation, traveling all summer, visiting friends and family outside of Bosnia, so I wasnt really active. I followed th news etc..
Credit where xredit is due, Erdogan played it masterfully this time, really. He and his staff recognized the disconect between Trump, what he wants, and the Pentagon, esspecially CENTCOM. And used that fisure. Remember, not even a year ago Trump after a phonecall with Erdogan anounced Syria pullout, which was then deleyed by huge amount of preassure from Pentagon in private, Congres and in public media sphere. and Trump backed down, waiting for another oportunity. As soon as that first episode played out, Erdogan knew there s an opening. And Turkey waited for the sutible oportunity. In short,by lunching the op Turkey gave Trump an excuse to begin the pullout, something he really wanted do for some time. He wasnt interested in nation building or policing North Syria, all the fonds for reconstruction were slashed and plans rejected. And this force thats staying, its really a compromise with Congress, is not about the oil. Syrian oil reserves are insignificant, but what isnt is Iranian angle. Popmpeo went to Tel Aviv right after Ankara, they will stay in Deir province to stop Iran for completing the bridge beween its Iraqi proxies and those on Israeli borders in Syria and Lebanon. Lidsney Graham and his ilk of Republicans dont give a shit about 'the kurds', they just used that angle in public sphere to preassure Trump not to completly pull out, and stay in NE, that border region to prevent take over by the Russians and Iranians.
As for ceasfires, they are both diplomatical wins for Erdogans presidency and his administration. They got almost everythign they wanted, while simultaniusly dodging sanctions. Operation and turkish concerns were legitimized. It doesnt metter really if YPG honors it, or not. Turkey and TFSA will steamroll them, and they will have legal cover to do so by the terms of the agremement with US-. Same with Russia.