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Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

ISF tried to take it late 2017, American pressure stopped it from happening. Iraq can take it militarily easily as it is close by current ISF line but they need a strong reason to do so, such as heavy Turkish pressure that gives Baghdad an excuse in the face of Americans.

Although Baghdad taking Fishkhabour is one thing, closing the border between Fishkhabour and Syria (rejecting American movement) is another which would mean Iraq blocks the American project in northern Syria, whilst legally allowed to do so it would anger the US leaving them with no other alternative but to accept that fate or to be hostile to Baghdad.

Dangerous situation.

The new border proposal is to bypass the KRG customs/tarrifs, KRG will cave in to that demand eventually as they seek it.

http://www.rudaw.net/NewsDetails.aspx?pageid=394303

Baghdad will only reopen Erbil-Kirkuk road if it gets a customs border

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However what I do not understand is why Turkey doesn't use Iraq to counter the SDF/YPG project in Syria. Simply by making an offer to Iraq, setting up the atmosphere/pressure/support in some aggressive manner which Erdogan is good at that would let Iraq make the move to cut KRG from Syria whilst saving face in front of the US. Since this is such a big problem for Turkey, either they aren't considering that or doing so is not possible given the move would would meet strong US opposition. Sadr is a good candidate for such a thing as he's a strongman type of leader who doesn't like Americans and would rather work with neighbors.
Nobody knows what the near future will bring to us. As we see with every day Turkey becomes more and more confident regarding those issues but I don't think such a thing will happen very soon. Also it is not sure how the current Turkish government would take on the Kurdish issue. Tomorrow maybe we will wake up as federation because all their moves are pointing for that such preparation is being done. If they could counter the separatist movements its not so bad idea but if not it is suicidal.

We see that DEASH is being destroyed and little work still have to be done in that matter. We see that the environment in Syria is slowly setting up for a political and reconstruction process. Maybe when the situation in Syria settles up and the conditions are being clear of what will be done then such move can occur. I don't think that Turkey or Iraq will close the US corridor to Syria at the moment as both are members of the International Coalition against DEASH and that would mean "sabotaging the international efforts in the fight against DEASH". Every move against the US in Syria at the moment is complicated matter.

While everyone will take something from that war I think that the US will take federation and maybe US bases on Syrian territory. If the areas that will be under the control of Kurdish factions move for independence then I think that Turkey would act harshly and wage war otherwise we are countered into the corner. We must hope that Syria doesn't go for partition.
 
It's starting... The first "step" in any past "Operation" was leaflets...

The second step is Troops relocation...

Third is the Move...
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As for the Rebel side...

First... Is tracking traitors...

Second... If One Front creation...
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I feel... After Aïd... Things gonna be...

What does all means?
 
SAA dropped leaflets above Idlib
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Same old thing.
Look what we offer with ASSAd (aka peace) and look what you have out there (aka War /Destruction/Death)... And "Let's be friend again"...

Do you think SAA will carry this operation out without Russian approval? So far I’ve heard Russians vetoing it.

It will be interesting either way, there are some 30-50k rebels held up in Idlib.

In Turkey there is no talk of Idlib, leading me to believe maybe the government will simply backtrack, not good.

Also interesting Pro Assad fan boys calling this the last offensive as if half the country is not invaded by YPG.

Interesting times ahead.
 
@HannibalBarca Brother I want to hear your opinion of what we should do with HTS? How can we dissolve the group without compromising the power of Idlib based factions, without violating the international law by harboring them as they are listed as terrorist organization in many countries and organizations and also what should be done with their fighters per your points of view?
 
@HannibalBarca Brother I want to hear your opinion of what we should do with HTS? How can we dissolve the group without compromising the power of Idlib based factions, without violating the international law by harboring them as they are listed as terrorist organization in many countries and organizations and also what should be done with their fighters per your points of view?

Closing the borders, stop supporting them, and let them fight against SAA.
 
guys shit is boiling up in Idlib now. This was not part of the agreement so i wonder how we will react . anyone knows how our response will be?
 
Do you think SAA will carry this operation out without Russian approval? So far I’ve heard Russians vetoing it.

It will be interesting either way, there are some 30-50k rebels held up in Idlib.

In Turkey there is no talk of Idlib, leading me to believe maybe the government will simply backtrack, not good.

Also interesting Pro Assad fan boys calling this the last offensive as if half the country is not invaded by YPG.

Interesting times ahead.

Russia has still some"Influence" but not enough to keep every "faction" on her side. Therefore, as things are right now... You just need few "Frustrated groups" to jump on the snowball effect.
As for TR, I really don't know,if they will backtrack or help, I think they are against the same choices as after Aleppo fall... At that Time,you had "possibilities" to extend "influence" like taking ISIS areas or later on YPG threat.

But Right now... it's quite a difficult situation... Whatever the choice TR will make... Both could push TR in even more "problematic" futures... A No man's land Border+Millions of refugees+Losing Regional influence... or Get in good and Fight against a whole block for years to come+Making many enemies+Gaining great Regional influence... (RU would not be involved)

It's a difficult choice...

@HannibalBarca Brother I want to hear your opinion of what we should do with HTS? How can we dissolve the group without compromising the power of Idlib based factions, without violating the international law by harboring them as they are listed as terrorist organization in many countries and organizations and also what should be done with their fighters per your points of view?

HTS main "resentment" against TR is her relationship+Deals that she made with HTS enemies aka RU+Allies.
That's the main critics that you read from HTS figures.
HTS are an Islamist based group... who believe to be the true and only faithful group against ASSad...
HTS,or at least it's ideology, will never go away... Therefore FIghting this Ideology in this current war situation will be a waste of time and energy...
But One way to get HTS followers in your ranks and therefore make it empty is to answer to the core critics... That is... Behaving according to the revolution, aka Fight ASSad and no Compromise.

I believe, that if TR decide to engage against ASSad, those soldiers will have no choice but to join the ranks of TR, whatever it's temporary or not... as long as their numbers sink to nothing, that group will be a minority with no more power on the ground.
But If TR backtrack and decide to let Idlib being taken, People will see FSA as weak and unreliable and will, in this moment of despair either Run to TR border or join the ranks of those who claimed "Ownership" of the battle...

As for their "International" Title... it doesn't matter... If you are on the winning side... Having Radicals or not on your side is useless...

For ASSad, being HTS or FSA or TR... doesn't matter... all Three are Terros/Invaders of Syria... As long as Whole Syria isn't back in his hand... They will continue and use any justification to move ...
Therefore removing HTS... will be the same end result... and I'm pretty sure TR knows it... That's "maybe" also why they weren't that active in fighting HTS... Since that group isn't the "problem"... in this "ASSad equation...
 
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This was not part of the agreement

What agreement? We supposed to remove Al-Qaeda/HTS. We didn't. Now we will pay another price for our retarded government's stupidity. SAA will take HTS existance as a justification for military operation.

We will either find last second solutions like previous stupidities, or we will host 4 million more Syrians. Ülkeyi bir avuç beyinsiz yönetiyor resmen.
 

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