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Turkish Peace Operations in Syria (Operation Olive Branch) Updates & Discussions

I think Russia is secretely happy that Turkey is taking over Afrin, and slowly the rebels. They can make a deal with Turkey, but not with the Rebels. Making the rebel areas a satellite state is therefore better than a rebel fraction that is totally independent.
 
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Under pressure, France toughens talk on Turkish Syria operation
Reuters Staff

PARIS (Reuters) - France’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that Turkey’s operation against Kurdish militants in the Afrin region was not justified, the strongest language yet from Paris regarding its NATO ally’s intervention in Syria.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...talk-on-turkish-syria-operation-idUSKCN1GP2EG

Why does France still believe it has the power to influence the Middle East?
 
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I think Russia is secretely happy that Turkey is taking over Afrin, and slowly the rebels. They can make a deal with Turkey, but not with the Rebels. Making the rebel areas a satellite state is therefore better than a rebel fraction that is totally independent.

It is no secret that Russia wants Turkey to take over Afrin. Presence of Kurdish groups means the presence of US. And as the Syrian government didn't have the power to take over Afrin or any of the Kurdish areas, Russia couldn't intervene. It couldn't go in there with its own forces either because that would be really bad for its internal politics. This is actually a great win-win scenario for Russia, Syrian Government and Turkey.

Russia wins by having less territories inside Syria to worry about. (Because, like I said, Kurdish presence means US presence. It would rather have Turkish presence in Afrin). Russia no longer acts like Turkey is a nato ally. It rather acts like it is an eastern bloc country nowadays. So, if Turkey has Afrin, it means less of a chance for a US-made defense system or base installed in Afrin. If somehow the US ensured the formation of a Kurdish state that stretched through the entire border of Turkey, US would have been able to have yet another ally in the area.

Syrian Government wins because it didn't need to use almost any manpower. It may look like it has lost, but believe me, in the future, if the rebels and the government somehow gets along or if they can elect a joint leader, it will have a larger territory. I also think that all those small forces that were sent to "take control of Afrin" were just a show. They wanted to show Turkey that if it decides to go further than Afrin, they may start a real war. (They can't afford that anyway so it was just the smallest bluff maybe).

Lastly, of course it is a win for Turkey as it clears its borders from these terrorists groups, injects its presence into a much larger area (which will mean a bigger bargaining chip on the table for Syria's future), ensures that a Kurdish presence can never reach the coasts (and consequently, land locks a possible future Kurdish nation), forces US to perhaps realize its real allies.

I think that, the real question is, will we actually give all of these sides what they want? Russia and Syria probably assumes that one day, they will get back these areas. But already, we have too many investments in these terrains. So consequently, I don't think that we will actually give them back. I actually believe that one day, in like 10-15 years when all of this crisis blows out entirely, there will be elections to add al-bab and Afrin into Turkey. Syria will be still weak enough to make any counter moves against that. We may, in the future, see Afrin as the 82nd province.


note: I should point out that this is solely my analysis of the situation. I'm not a military tactics expert. :)
 
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Under pressure, France toughens talk on Turkish Syria operation
Reuters Staff

PARIS (Reuters) - France’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that Turkey’s operation against Kurdish militants in the Afrin region was not justified, the strongest language yet from Paris regarding its NATO ally’s intervention in Syria.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...talk-on-turkish-syria-operation-idUSKCN1GP2EG

Why does France still believe it has the power to influence the Middle East?

Mr France is having diarrhea because they, including other western countries, thought that Turkey will get bogged down in this operation.
 
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It is no secret that Russia wants Turkey to take over Afrin. Presence of Kurdish groups means the presence of US. And as the Syrian government didn't have the power to take over Afrin or any of the Kurdish areas, Russia couldn't intervene. It couldn't go in there with its own forces either because that would be really bad for its internal politics. This is actually a great win-win scenario for Russia, Syrian Government and Turkey.

Russia wins by having less territories inside Syria to worry about. (Because, like I said, Kurdish presence means US presence. It would rather have Turkish presence in Afrin). Russia no longer acts like Turkey is a nato ally. It rather acts like it is an eastern bloc country nowadays. So, if Turkey has Afrin, it means less of a chance for a US-made defense system or base installed in Afrin. If somehow the US ensured the formation of a Kurdish state that stretched through the entire border of Turkey, US would have been able to have yet another ally in the area.

Syrian Government wins because it didn't need to use almost any manpower. It may look like it has lost, but believe me, in the future, if the rebels and the government somehow gets along or if they can elect a joint leader, it will have a larger territory. I also think that all those small forces that were sent to "take control of Afrin" were just a show. They wanted to show Turkey that if it decides to go further than Afrin, they may start a real war. (They can't afford that anyway so it was just the smallest bluff maybe).

Lastly, of course it is a win for Turkey as it clears its borders from these terrorists groups, injects its presence into a much larger area (which will mean a bigger bargaining chip on the table for Syria's future), ensures that a Kurdish presence can never reach the coasts (and consequently, land locks a possible future Kurdish nation), forces US to perhaps realize its real allies.

I think that, the real question is, will we actually give all of these sides what they want? Russia and Syria probably assumes that one day, they will get back these areas. But already, we have too many investments in these terrains. So consequently, I don't think that we will actually give them back. I actually believe that one day, in like 10-15 years when all of this crisis blows out entirely, there will be elections to add al-bab and Afrin into Turkey. Syria will be still weak enough to make any counter moves against that. We may, in the future, see Afrin as the 82nd province.


note: I should point out that this is solely my analysis of the situation. I'm not a military tactics expert. :)
Good written. If you make a little search of Alexander Dugin's stance on the Kurds as whole you will also understand the middle-long term Russian political plans for the Kurds.
 
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Good written. If you make a little search of Alexander Dugin's stance on the Kurds as whole you will also understand the middle-long term Russian political plans for the Kurds.

Turkey will respect the territorial integrity of Syria (and Iraq). Otherwise we'll have a problem of unmentionable size in our hands.

The west invest in Africa, not because they want to, but because they have to, if living conditions are improved so much that ppl don't flee Africa, then that's a win for EU/west.
 
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