Turkish constitutional referendum 2017 - News, Update & Discussion

[KediKesenFare3]

How do you guys see the referandum going - predictions?

@xenon54

It's very unclear at the moment. Either one side will win with a razor-thin margin or we'll see a landslide victory. But I can't say which campaign is ahead now though I believe that the Yes campaign has a good chance due to its homogeneity (conservatives, religious people, nationalists, right-wing voters in general, Turkish diaspora, business people).

The No campaign is extremely diverse, perhaps even too diverse. Radical feminists, Communists/Socialists, Radical Islamists, Kemalists, PKK/HDP, some far right-wing MPs, fascists, Greens etc. They don't share a wider political worldview. These people usually fight each other; having nothing in common makes them look like a bunch of nay-sayers.

In addition, some people from the No side made grave tactical and strategical mistakes during the last days. Hüsnü Bozkurt (Kemalist/CHP MP) compared Yes voters to the Greek occupation forces during the Turkish War of Independence.

“If the ‘yes’ sides prevails in the ballot … we will set out from Samsun and go to Amasya, Sivas and Ankara before [proceeding to] İnönü, Sakarya and Dumlupınar. Shame on us if we do not chase you to İzmir. Then we will drive you, your families and all imperialists into the sea from İzmir.”

This was a complete waste of political sympathies. We're not finished here. The former party leader Deniz Baykal made an even worse comparison using the name of the prophet:

Lastly, the CHP (the main opposition party in Turkey) member Deniz Baykal performed a faux pas by uttering that even a prophet would corrupt if the authority proposed by the new constitution were given to him. Such a statement is like committing suicide in the middle of a campaign, which targets devout Muslims who have supported the AKP in the past years. If the CHP keeps on producing those unskilful discursive strategies, employing propaganda instruments used in other countries without considering the social dynamics of Turkey and following the agenda-setting of Erdoğan and the government, they will harm the campaign let alone contribute to it.
https://www.visionpolitic.com/hollandcrisis

People often forget that our opposition parties are Erdogan's greatest supporters.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@KediKesenFare Much appreciated. What are the implication if the 'Yes' camp win and Erdogan gets his way? Is it just case of more years for Erdogan or do you think it could augur major shifts in the direction Turkey takes?

And been meaning to ask you for some time. What does "Kedikesenfare" mean if anything? It kind sound sounds nice.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

@KediKesenFare Much appreciated. What are the implication if the 'Yes' camp win and Erdogan gets his way? Is it just case of more years for Erdogan or do you think it could augur major shifts in the direction Turkey takes?

The truth is that AKP is the leading party in Turkey. They already have the majority in the parliament, they won the presidential election, they won every single national referendum, they're appointing new judges and prosecutors since they came to power. Arguing that Turkey could become a dictatorship is therefore nonsense because AK party already has this "dangerous amount of power" over the state.

So, if the Yes camp wins, it means hat the current state of affairs will become legal. That's the whole story. On the other hand, 2/3 of the Turkish electorate belongs to the conservative political spectrum. Leftists and Kemalists fear that they never will win a presidential election, which means in a presidential system that they have to reform their party, agenda and ideology fundamentally to gain political power.

What Erdogan and the Kemalists don't see is that the CHP already started to change. Very slow and very little but the process started. Couple years ago they literally suppressed the religious classes in our society physically. For instance: https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2014/11/19/professor-faces-imprisonment-for-banning-headscarf

What a cruel and anti-democratic behavior.

Today, they started to understand that clinging to the past is the wrong approach. (Ironically, reformism is one of the main official pillar of the Kemalist ideology.) Now, being always the second has started to change their mindset. They're much more liberal, understanding and empathic towards the religious people in Anatolia.

Sure, right now no one is giving credit to them after 90 years of hardcore denying of people's traditional values. But if they manage to appear authentic, everything could change in a heartbeat. If someday the party base of CHP accepts that the state has neither the right to ban nor the right to force Islamic clothing onto people, even I would honestly consider to vote in favor of CHP. Yet, they aren't at this point today. But I clearly see that more and more Kemalists are changing their attitude and becoming a liberal secularist instead of only secular.

Some of my fellow countrymen will argue against my thoughts but remember. Erdogan was once a leading member of a hardcore, pro sharia, anti NATO and anti EU party. He changed. He won. He's the president. Turkey is prone for sudden political changes.

It's possible that in 20 years we'll see a completely new liberal, democratic and strong Kemalist party. If the Yes camp wins the current change in the state system could also lead to a deep reformation of the CHP. These are really ironic thoughts but I wouldn't be surprised.

Some Turkish members here who are describing themselves as Kemalist are already in fact more liberal than being Kemalistic in the narrower sense. Xenon, OguzSenturk (I like him much, don't know why), cabatli, Deliorman and to some extent even users like Soul, Sinan or this guy named Islamicfaithandsecularism etc. are examples for this change. They don't have problems with woman wearing headscarves as long as they can live the way they want to without outside interference. Unfortunately, many Kemalists are still "old school", rejecting people because of their Islamic life style.

And been meaning to ask you for some time. What does "Kedikesenfare" mean if anything? It kind sound sounds nice.

Oh no, hmm, it means "mouse who slaughters cat". It was meant to be funny.

 

[xenon54 out]

How do you guys see the referandum going - predictions?

@xenon54

55% yes.

 

[Max]

Very interesting approach. Why do you think that a change in the state system would reduce feudalism in rural Pakistan?

bcoz presidential candidates gets vote for their personal popularity and agenda which produce strong leaders, they dont heavily rely on feudal or influential people if they have personality, while in developing third world parliamentary democracies people become Prime Minister on bases of how much electable (feudals in rural areas in our case) they have on their sides.

NS is prime example, this guy cant deliver a speech without reading, you can guess his vision (if he have any) and he is our PM. you dont expect this in Presidential form of govt.

 

[Glockaholic]

My vote is for Erdogan

 

[KediKesenFare3]

What's happening with Turkey's constitution? Brief summary:

 

[T-Rex]

How do you guys see the referandum going - predictions?

@xenon54

I''l let the Turks do the prediction since it is their country but I believe the system they have at the moment hinders democracy. In a democracy there should never be a body acting as a guardian council which seeks to impose a particular political view on people.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Latest opinion polls :

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017

 

[KediKesenFare3]

A timeline of Turkey’s constitutional history
From restricting the authority of an Ottoman Sultan in 1808 to the election of a president by popular vote, Turkey's constitutional history is a story unto itself.

A historic referendum on constitutional changes in Turkey on April 16 will ask the electorate to vote on whether to approve an 18-article bill. Turkish citizens will decide to vote 'Yes' or 'No'. But it's not the nation's first major shift in governance nor amendments made to the constitution.

Here's a timeline of Turkey's constitutional history:

1808

Charter of Alliance; an agreement between the central government of the Ottoman Empire and local rulers restricted the authority of sultan.

1876

Ottoman constitution of 1876, the beginning of the constitutional era in Turkey.

The Ottoman Parliament (Meclis-i Umumi) opens for the first time in 1877. [Wikipedia]
1909

Revisions to the existing constitution.

1921

First constitution of the Republic of Turkey.

1924

The new constitution, considered to be less democratic than the previous:

- No separation of powers. Executive and judiciary were also under parliament’s control

- De facto, no multiparty system

1928

Religious remarks removed from the constitution

1931

Fiscal amendments

1934

Universal suffrage begins

1937

Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) principles imposed on the constitution through the amendment

1960

Military coup d'etat in Turkey, known as '27 May coup.'

The military coup in Turkey, was a coup d'état staged by a group of Turkish army officers, against the democratically elected government of the Democrat Party on May 27, 1960. [AP Archive]
1961

Constitution instated after the coup. It introduced the bicameral system

- The executive branch is left to president and the council of ministers

- The judiciary branch is left to impartial courts. Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors established

- Supreme Court is established

- Unions, labour agreements and strikes are allowed

1971

March 12 Memorandum

1972

Council of Ministers were given the authority to issue decrees

- Civil servants’ right to establish unions was abolished

- Autonomy of universities weakened

- State security courts with expanded jurisdiction were established

1980

September 12 coup d’état

The September 12, 1980 Turkish coup d'état, headed by Chief of the General Staff Kenan Evren, was the third coup d'état in the history of the Republic. [AA]
1982

Another constitution instated after a coup. Unicameral system reinstated.

- Executive branch is empowered

- The focus shifted from the people to the state as opposed to previous constitutions.

1982

- Voting age lowered to 19

- The number of MPs increased to 450 from 400

- Bans on certain leaders abolished

1993

Restrictions on setting up TV and Radio stations eased

1995

Freedom to set up unions for civil servants

- Workers and public servants were given right to labour agreements

- Voting age further lowered to 18

- The ban on political parties to establish women and youth branches abolished

- Academics and university students were given right to be members of political parties

- The number of MPs increased to 550

1997

Coup d’état (Postmodern coup)

1999

Military members of the State Security Court replaced by civilians

- Privatisation of state properties allowed

2001

Crucial changes in line with European Court of Human Rights

- Freedom of communication included in the text

- Gender equality fortified

- Closing political parties made more difficult

2005

Changes in the structure of the Radio and Television High Council

2006

Age of candidacy for MP decreased to 25 from 30

2007

E-memorandum

2007

Changes through referendum

- Elections to be held every four years instead of five

- The president is to be elected through popular vote.

- Presidential elections to be held every five years instead of seven. This did not apply to the incumbent Abdullah Gul.

2010

Changes through referendum

- Changes in the structure of judiciary and courts.

2014

Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes the first president of Turkey directly elected through popular vote.

He previously served as the Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014 and as the Mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998. [AA]
2016

July 15 attempted coup d’état.

The coup plotters killed 246 and injured more than 2,000 civilians in Turkey. [Reuters]
Source:
TRTWorld​

http://www.trtworld.com/referendum/turkeys-constitutional-history-a-timeline-334848

 

[ValerioAurelius]

I believe if "yes" wins, this means the final break with Europe. Erdogan followed a burned earth diplomacy and there is no way he can win back face.

If Yes wins, Turkey will be even more isolated and its economy sink down even more so.

If No wins i dont see any positive either. Erdogan is a dictator. I suggest chaos would break out since he would not accept that.

 

[damm1t]

I believe if "yes" wins, this means the final break with Europe. Erdogan followed a burned earth diplomacy and there is no way he can win back face.

If Yes wins, Turkey will be even more isolated and its economy sink down even more so.

If No wins i dont see any positive either. Erdogan is a dictator. I suggest chaos would break out since he would not accept that.

Lol.. same sterotyping over and over again ...

 

[ValerioAurelius]

Lol.. same sterotyping over and over again ...

Nope, just what our media say regarding that.

You seem to forget one thing. Erdogan inuslted european nations in the absolute most disgusting way.

We have voters too. Erdogan is burned here. Its impossible for any leader here to actually even try to show any sympathy for turkey or he / she gets shredded by the public.

How do you plan to overcome that? Its a honest question

 

[damm1t]

Nope, just what our media say regarding that.

You seem to forget one thing. Erdogan inuslted european nations in the absolute most disgusting way.

We have voters too. Erdogan is burned here. Its impossible for any leader here to actually even try to show any sympathy for turkey or he / she gets shredded by the public.

How do you plan to overcome that? Its a honest question

No one is planning to overcome it, one of the reasons Erdoğan rose his votes is Turks fed up with Europeans' behaviour and arrogance. So Erdoğan has full support of Turks whatever he does with EU - Turkey ties. Your own leaders make him win the referandum. They started to call him " Dictator, Authocrat, Sultan " so he fired back as " Nazis, Fascists ". There is no future for EU, specially Turkey within.

 

[ValerioAurelius]

No one is planning to overcome it, one of the reasons Erdoğan rose his votes is Turks fed up with Europeans' behaviour and arrogance. So Erdoğan has full support of Turks whatever he does with EU - Turkey ties. Your own leaders make him win the referandum. They started to call him " Dictator, Authocrat, Sultan " so he fired back as " Nazis, Fascists ". There is no future for EU, specially Turkey within.

This is not about EU. Im talking about nations. Germany, Italy, Austria ect.

Europeans are fed up with turkey. You can actually win elections in europe now, when you openly act against turkey. As could be seen in netherlands. Turkey depends 100% on trade with europeans. Anything that would damage turkey would be applauded by european voters. Europens are fed up with turkeys behavior. So you see its a double sided road. I dont think any constructive cooperation will be possible as long erdogan is president.