Turkey Sends A Message To YPG

[-SINAN-]

AKP govt or AKP/MHP coalition.

MHP got 3 conditions.

1-) Abandoning "Peace Process"
2-) Persecution for the "thief" ex-ministers.
3-) Erdoğan should act like the president as defined in the constitution.

Let's say AKP agreed on 1st and 3rd conditions..... it will never agree on 2nd condition. As Erdoğan knows that at the end of the persecution, he will be put on trial with the accusation of " treason to country"

My prediction is AKP-CHP coalition.

CHPs demands are change of the foreign policy and educational system. These are acceptable terms for AKP.

 

[Orez]

My prediction is AKP-CHP coalition.

CHPs demands are change of the foreign policy and educational system. These are acceptable terms for AKP.

I don't like it.
AKP-CHP coalition is maybe more easy to make, but the govt will never be strong with 2 party too different with one another.

MHP can always give up his second condition, and that will do, but otherwise....the situation will not change after sunday.

But this not the polital topic, we should stop here.

 

[LegionnairE]

I don't remember any cross-border ground operation against Kandil....Kandil is the last destination. Before Kandil, there is Metina, Zap, Avaşin, Hakurk, etc.... camps. First we need to finish those kamps. In Kandil there is no fighting force of PKK, just wounded guys as their leaders fled Iraq.

We could send paratroopers with air cover while we attack hakurk from land

options are unliminted

 

[-SINAN-]

We could send paratroopers with air cover while we attack hakurk from land

options are unliminted

Yeah, could be done but my point is, fighting elements of the PKK are not in Kandil, their leaders are not in Kandil (they all fled to Syrıa and Iran). So, what are we going to achieve by capturing Kandil ? Yeap, it would be a physiological blow to PKK, but i think, first we should focus on their camps near the border.

Also i think, we should begin to squeeze Barzani. KRG became very depended on Turkey. KRG's only income is their oil which is being exported via Turkey. While being highly depended on Turkey and having hostile relations with central government, he should appease us.

 

[atatwolf]

Yeah, could be done but my point is, fighting elements of the PKK are not in Kandil, their leaders are not in Kandil (they all fled to Syrıa and Iran". So, what are we going to achieve by capturing Kandil ? Yeap, it would be a physiological blow to PKK, but i think, first we should focus on their camps near the border.

It the book Art of War it is explained that a static army will always loose against guerrilla forces. It doesn't matter how big the army is or anything. The best plan of action for Turkey would be to use the same tactics PKK is using. We need special units roaming in Iraq hunting down PKK groups. At night they shouldn't be able to sleep. If we go in conventional way with a big army, there would be public outcry and also we would be easy target for Iranian and Russian proxies.

 

[kalu_miah]

Turkey needs a long term strategy to tackle the Kurdish problem. Turkey has two main minority groups, Alevis and Kurds. I do not think Turkey majority can afford to alienate both of these groups at the same time. And Alevi's have not been disloyal to Turkish state like the Kurds have been since 1920's, so Shia-Sunni continuing war and Turkey's participation in it in the neighborhood is not in Turkey's long term interest. Naturally Kurds then become the expendable group if you have to choose between the two. In order to take care of the Kurdish problem in the long term, Turkey cannot and should not allow any autonomous Kurdish entities to take root in any shape or form next to Turkish border. If they do form, like it did in Northern Iraq and like it is ongoing in Northern Syria, then inevitably they have and will become safe haven for PKK. So how can Turkey prevent these entities from taking shape? By empowering Arabs in both areas and eventually helping Arabs to dilute Kurdish majority in these Kurdish enclaves. Same demographic changes are needed in Kurdish majority areas in South Eastern Turkey as well. Ahiska Turks can be moved in these areas, interested Uzbeks, Turkmens and Turkics from other countries can also be used. So Kurdish majority must be eventually made into a minority within Turkey using Turks, Turkmens and Turkics. And outside Turkey near Turkish border in Syria and Iraq, this can be done using Arabs and perhaps Turkmens who were displaced from these areas, in cooperation with Arabs. Just some ideas I wanted to share.

I mentioned this before in PKK related thread. The US has helped Kurds formed their enclave in northern Iraq, now with the excuse of fighting ISIS they are doing the same in northern Syria. Turkey needs to have a strategy to stop this increasing US-Kurd alliance. The following is the big news here on TV:
Obama is sending US special forces to Syria. Here's what that means. - Vox
"One US official says those partners could include Kurdish forces or the "Syrian Democratic Forces," a somewhat nebulous group of Kurdish and Arab forces allied against ISIS in the country's north."

So what is the Turkish plan? Turkey needs a workable plan that will be win win for both US/West and Turkey.

 

[Orez]

The alevi are not a threat to Turkey, yes some of them may have some grudge against the AKP, but they will not betray their country for that or for some links with Syria's alouite.

The Kurds alevi are the worst possible people for Turkey, but the Turks alevi ? No, they can even be considerated more nationalist than the average Turk (and the Turks are generally more nationalist than other nationality).

 

[kalu_miah]

US Troop Deployment to Syria Frustrates Anti-Assad Rebels

US Troop Deployment to Syria Frustrates Anti-Assad Rebels


FILE - Chief of Staff of the Free Syrian Army Gen. Salim Idris addresses the media after he discussed the situation in Syria with the leader of the Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Guy Verhofstadt, right, at the European Parliament in Brussels, March 6, 2013.

Jamie Dettmer
October 31, 2015 11:33 AM

ISTANBUL—
Washington's decision to dispatch U.S. commandos to northern Syria to help coordinate the fight against the Islamic State terror group is roiling increasingly tense relations between the Obama administration and the main Western-backed Syrian political opposition, as well as Sunni Arab rebels whose priority is to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Rebel commanders with the Free Syrian Army say they were not informed of the decision to send the U.S. military into northern Syria. They learned of the plans from reporters after the White House announced that a small group of special forces — fewer than 50 — would deploy to Syria coordinate anti-IS operations by mainly Kurdish fighters and by the U.S.-led coalition supporting the rebels.

In an email to VOA, General Salim Idris, a top FSA commander, admitted, “I don't have any idea about the sending of U.S. soldiers to Syria.”


FILE - U.S. special forces soldiers.

Support for YPG

at being left in the dark about the deployment, FSA rebel commanders complain the United States appears determined to build up the capacity of the Kurdish People's Protection Units, or YPG, and a smaller alliance of disparate Arab and Turkmen militias based in northeast Syria, while neglecting rebel forces west of the Euphrates.

Since Russia launched its air campaign mainly against anti-Assad rebels, arms supplies to the FSA have increased from the United States and other countries known collectively as the "Friends of Syria." Chief among the arms supplies is anti-tank TOW missiles. But FSA commanders complain the resupplies are insufficient in the face of Russian-backed Assad ground offensives, and they continue to voice deep resentment toward Washington for refusing to supply shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles known as MANPADS.

And the support for the YPG is increasingly frustrating FSA commanders and politicians in the Syrian National Coalition, who fear the territorial ambitions of pro-separatist Kurds.


FILE - Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fighters take up positions inside a damaged building in al-Vilat al-Homor neighborhood in Hasaka city, as they monitor the movements of Islamic State fighters stationed in Ghwayran neighborhood.

SNC's reaction

Just hours before the White House announcement Friday, SNC vice president Nagham al-Ghadri complained of the U.S. strategy on Syria and lamented Washington's backing for the Kurdish YPG, the armed offshoot of the Democratic Union Party (PYD).

“They give full support to the PYD," al-Ghadri said in an exclusive interview with VOA. "We have spoken to the Americans about it many times." She described the PYD as "a tool of the Assad regime in Kurdish areas” of Syria.

FSA rebel commanders argue the YPG does not fight Assad’s forces, apart from an occasional skirmish when local disputes flare between the two.

“From the beginning of the revolution until now, there is always an excuse why the U.S. is not supporting us more,” al-Ghadri said.

Speaking in the Syrian National Coalition's offices near Istanbul’s main airport, with passenger jets thundering overhead, she added: “Two years or three years ago they start giving an excuse that all the opposition has to be united. But when you look at them they are not united. The 'Friends of Syria,' they have different opinions and different ways of dealing with the Syrian situation. And now we are seeing the United States is [apart] from the rest of the 'Friends of Syria'.”

She says deposing Assad should be the main priority: “ISIS will be easy to get rid of when Assad is removed. Our to-do list is, number one, [against] the regime and to get rid of Assad; and number two, ISIS.”


FILE - Syria's President Bashar al-Assad speaks during an interview with the Iranian Khabar TV channel in this handout photograph released by Syria's national news agency SANA, Oct. 4, 2015.

U.S. military officials say the YPG is the coalition’s most capable partner on the ground in the struggle against Islamic State militants. But FSA and Islamist rebel brigades harbor a deep overall suspicion of those Kurdish fighters, who have as their overarching objective to establish some kind of autonomous or semi-autonomous Kurdish state in northeast Syria.

Adding to the suspicions is a recent report by Amnesty International accusing Kurdish militias of forced displacement of Arabs and Turkmen from territory they have captured in recent weeks, and of mass house demolitions in non-Kurdish villages.

PYD and YPG officials vehemently deny the rights group’s allegations.

Turkish concerns

Turkish officials also have expressed disapproval of Washington’s burgeoning support for the YPG, which is an offshoot of Turkey’s outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the PKK. Ankara fears territorial gains by the Syrian Kurdish militia along its borders will fuel the ambitions of separatist Kurds in Turkey. A cease-fire between Ankara and the PKK collapsed in July, triggering a resumption of hostilities in the decades-long struggle in Turkey between ethnic Kurds and Turks.

Earlier this month, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu warned the U.S. publicly against arming the Syrian Kurds, declaring such a move would threaten Turkey's security.

A key Ankara demand is that the YPG and associated armed groups do not cross west of the Euphrates River to establish contiguous Kurdish-controlled territory along a large stretch of the 900-kilometer Syrian-Turkish border, from Iraq in the East to the mainly Kurdish town of Afrin.

Washington has struggled for months to square the circle between Ankara and the YPG. On Wednesday, President Barack Obama’s special envoy, General John Allen, told a U.S. Senate panel that maintaining support for the PYD and its armed wing the YPG in Syria while cooperating with Ankara is one of the most complex challenges facing Washington.

So far, there has been no official Turkish response to Friday’s announcement of the deployment of U.S. special forces — the first time Washington has put boots on the ground in Syria for anything but a defined raid.

But a senior Turkish official said Ankara is demanding more detail from Washington about exactly where the U.S. commandos would be based and what their function would be.

Picking up on U.S. media reports that the special forces deployed could help influence the YPG to remain east of the Euphrates, the official told VOA, “Let’s hope so.” He added that, for Ankara, any Kurdish movement west of the river would prompt a strong military reaction from Turkey, “whether there are U.S. troops nearby or not.”

Turkish Prime Minister Davutoğlu said last Monday that Turkey has struck Kurdish militia fighters in Syria twice after they defied Ankara's warning not to cross the Euphrates. “We have said, the PYD must not cross west of the Euphrates,"Davutoğlu told a local TV news channel. "We will hit them the moment they do, and we have struck them twice" already. He did not explain where or when those incidents took place.

 

[kalu_miah]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0a098986-7e36-11e5-a1fe-567b37f80b64.html#axzz3qOBenB5q

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0a098986-7e36-11e5-a1fe-567b37f80b64.html#ixzz3qOGeQCyV
November 1, 2015 10:53 am

Syrian Kurds exploit Russian presence to strengthen hand
Erika Solomon in Beirut and Geoff Dyer in Washington

Stronger PYD risks jeopardising US efforts to combat Isis

They have been the most valuable ally to the US-led coalition against Isis in Syria — but now Syria’s Kurdish forces could become its biggest headache.

As the US-led coalition tries to step up its offensive on Islamist militants Isis, Syria’s dominant Kurdish faction is making its own plans. In recent weeks, it announced a new autonomous district in northern Syria, a decision that has riled neighbouring Turkey, a coalition partner that hosts airbases for US jets.

More worryingly, observers say, the Democratic Union party (known by its Kurdish acronym PYD) is also discussing its ambitions for greater self-rule in diplomatic meetings with Russia — America’s rival and President Bashar al-Assad’s international backer.

Emboldened by their crucial role against the jihadi threat in Syria, the PYD and its partners are moving to strengthen their hand politically. But such steps also risk jeopardising US efforts to combat Isis, by antagonising its partner Turkey as well as Arab rebels on the ground.

Observers say the PYD’s talks with Russia are aimed at pressuring the US for more military support and, ideally, political recognition.

“It’s like a reconnaissance mission to see what the positions are. Everyone else is meeting to discuss their options — why shouldn’t the PYD?,” said Nawaf Xelil, a former PYD official who now runs the Kurdish Studies Centre in Germany. “We want recognition for regional self-administration, so we need to expand our relationships.”

Kurds are the world’s largest ethnicity without a state, sprawled across Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria.

But in the midst of Syria’s multi-sided civil war, they have carved out a region of self-rule in the country’s north-east, which they call Rojava, similar to the autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq.

Most of Syria’s Sunni Arab majority is against this — as is neighbouring Turkey, wary that its own Kurds on the other side of the border could make similar demands.

If self-rule for Kurds in Syria once seemed an unlikely outcome of the war, it now looks almost inevitable since Syria’s Kurdish militia proved themselves to be an effective ground partner for coalition air strikes against Isis.

As they pushed out Isis under US air cover this year, the Kurds cemented and expanded their control of Syria’s north-eastern Kurdish region and sought to link it with Kurdish territory further west.

Many Kurds feel history justifies forceful tactics: they have often been abandoned by international allies in the final hour. The US twice aborted support of Kurdish rebellions against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, leaving tens of thousands of Kurds to be slaughtered.

“They feel this is their moment, and they’re not going to take orders,” said Aaron Stein, a non-resident fellow of the Atlantic Council. “They’re going to make history, not just accept it.”

That risks putting the PYD on a collision course with Turkey, which fired on Kurdish positions last week. If such attacks escalate, anti-Isis coalition members would essentially be pitted against each other.

This comes at a trying time for Washington, which has been revamping its efforts after the collapse of its $500m programme to train rebels against Isis at the same time that Russia launched air strikes against both Isis and rebels Washington supports.

Some US officials link Kurdish talks with Russia to the broader contest for influence in Syria between Moscow and Washington. Russian outreach to the Syrian Kurds, including quiet encouragement of their demands for greater autonomy within the country, some US officials believe, could be part of a broader push to try to drive a wedge between the US and Turkey by playing on Ankara’s fears about the creation of a Kurdish state.

Even if the main objectives of Russia’s meetings is to discuss a political solution to the war, others say, the potential these talks have for complicating relationships between the US and its partners is likely to be a welcome side-effect.

And for Turkey, the stakes are high. In a speech on Wednesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued a warning in response to Syrian Kurds’ announcement of a new self-ruling district for Tel Abyad, a town they captured from Isis under US air cover this year. “If you try to do this elsewhere, Turkey doesn’t need permission from anyone. We will do what is necessary,” Mr Erdogan said.

Both the PYD and the militia linked to it are sister organisations of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a group branded as terrorists by much of the west as well as Turkey, which has fought the group for decades.

Turkey does not distinguish the Syrian affiliate from the PKK, but has tolerated the US support for it. The fear now, Mr Stein said, is that talks with Russia have encouraged the Kurds to push west towards the largely Kurdish border town of Jarablus, currently in Isis hands.

Turkey considers the town a red line — if captured, the Kurds could link nearly all pockets of Kurdish territory — and could take stronger military action. “It could fracture the coalition,” he said.

Kurdish commanders say they have no plans to push on the town, although many political leaders argue it is critical to cutting Isis supply routes.

PYD official Idris Naasan, who has called for pushing on Jarablus, said Russia looked willing to support plans for self-ruling districts inside Syria.

“We have become an influential player and they want to increase their diplomatic relationships with us for their future interests in the country,” he said, but insisted they would never risk losing their burgeoning alliance with the US.

Many Syrian Kurds say these forces will push as much as possible, not just for more military support, but for the political recognition they crave.

“The Kurds still have a lot of concerns. International sympathy never goes beyond their military fight against Isis,” said journalist Zana Omer, a Syrian Kurd in the PYD-run town of Qamishli. “What they want is political recognition for their sacrifices. And they still don’t have that.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/w...ed-alliance-in-syria-exists-in-name-only.html
U.S. and Turkey on a Collision Course in Syria | David L. Phillips