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Turkeys economy may expand 6.8 percent this year, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said, almost doubling its previous forecast after a rebound in exports.
See? It already changed from-6% to 6.8%. the grow changes every week 100% indigenous indians..the grow percentage at the end of december counts.
The Paris-based OECD had predicted 3.7 percent growth in a November study. The strength of exports together with a revival in consumer spending have helped the economy revive sharply after a 4.9 percent contraction last year, the group said in a report published Wednesday.
Turkey slashed interest rates to a record low last year and offered tax breaks to consumers buying items such as cars and home appliances to pull the economy out of recession. Exporters have sought to diversify their markets, targeting Russia and oil-producing Middle East nations as demand in Turkeys main European trading partners remained weak.
Exports rose 23 percent from a year earlier to $35.1 billion in the first four months of 2010, according to the Turkish Assembly of Exporters. It will be crucial for exporters to keep prices competitive as the Turkish Lira gains against the euro, the OECD said.
Consumer confidence rose to the highest for more than two years in April, official statistics show. The OECD forecast a 5.7 percent increase in private consumption this year. The benchmark stock index jumped 12 percent between January and April, before losing the gains this month as the European debt crisis worsened.
Despite the economic growth, the OECD report said job creation in Turkey would not be strong enough to absorb a rapidly growing labor force and that unemployment would rise further.
Economic growth will not be enough to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate, already more than 14 percent, as young people and second-earners join the labor force, the OECD said. Turkeys challenge is to bring the black economy under registration to expand the tax base, while preserving the labor market flexibility currently achieved by companies and employees breaching existing rigid rules, it said.
"Prudent macroeconomic management helped to improve domestic and international confidence. Ongoing progress in fiscal transparency is expected to confirm this trend. Labor market reforms are needed to preserve competitiveness and foster sustainable employment growth," the organization said in its report.
"Employment in both rural and urban areas grew despite the contraction of output in 2009, reflecting large scale labor hoarding facilitated by nominal wage cuts. However, this was not enough to offset steady inflows of people to the labor market, driven by demographic factors and 'second earner' effects, which lead to higher unemployment," the report said.
According to the report, "Unemployment remains high despite the acceleration of growth and net job creation. Reducing the high unemployment rate [17 percent in urban areas and 27 percent for young urban workers] requires fundamental labor market reforms."
Unemployment is set to become a key political battleground in the run-up to elections due next year. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, elected head of the main opposition party last week, called it the countrys largest problem in his victory speech. The government is working with academics and business leaders to draw up a national employment strategy.
Turkey was only one of the emerging countries for which the OECD raised its growth forecasts. The economy of the OECDs 30 members will grow 2.7 percent this year, more than the 1.9 percent predicted in November, the Paris-based group said recently in a report. Including non-members such as China, the global economy will expand 4.6 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2011, compared with an average of 3.7 percent during the decade through 2006.
The projections highlight a growing divergence in the global economy after it emerged last year from its worst slump in more than half a century. While the economies of China and India risk overheating, indebtedness may threaten expansion in the developed world, according to the OECD, which advises its members on policy.
A first substantive risk is related to developments in sovereign debt markets, OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan wrote in the report. Elsewhere, a boom-bust scenario cannot be ruled out, requiring a much stronger tightening of monetary policy in some countries, including China and India, he said.
Europes sovereign-debt crisis, triggered by Greece, has raised investor concern that the economic recovery will fade and sent equity markets around the world tumbling. The MSCI World Index is down 10 percent this year, while the S&P 500 Index in the U.S. has shed 3.7 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index has dropped 14 percent.
US growth
Still, the U.S. economy will grow 3.2 percent in 2010 and next year instead of the 2.5 percent predicted in November, and the euro region will advance 1.2 percent compared with the previous forecast of 0.9 percent, the OECD said. Japans economy will expand 3 percent instead of 1.8 percent.
Those rates contrast with a far faster pace of growth in emerging economies. China will expand more than 11 percent this year, India 8.3 percent and Brazil 6.5 percent, according to OECD forecasts.
As activity gathers momentum, global imbalances are beginning to widen again, Padoan said. Strong, sustainable and more balanced growth can be achieved through a combination of macro-economic, exchange-rate and structural policies.
Chinas efforts to stoke domestic demand have helped keep its trade surplus from returning to the record levels registered in 2006 and 2007 before the financial crisis, the OECD said.
U.S.-China talks set up primarily to head off bilateral disputes focused this week on threats to global stability, including Europes debt crisis. Roughly 200 U.S. officials wrapped up meetings in Beijing recently as the euros decline to an eight-year low against the yen and a 4.7 percent plunge versus the won overshadowed sparring on trade and Chinas control of its exchange rate.
The relative weakness of the euro region puts the onus on its policy makers to improve their long-term coordination after agreeing earlier this month on a support package worth almost $1 trillion to help debt-burdened countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal, the OECD said.
The European effort, culminating in a finance ministers meeting in Brussels on May 9, was comparable with that made to shore up banks in Western countries in October 2008.
Lingering instability
The fact that the second set of actions has been taken 18 months after the first is a reminder that the period of significant financial instability that began in August 2007 is not yet over, Padoan said. Short-term policy responses are not without long-term consequences. Above all, rising indebtedness and widespread moral hazard will reduce room for policy action, if needed, in future.
The OECD said the euro area needs to increase wage and price flexibility, change investment structures and consider raising retirement ages to help contain divergences between countries.
The organization urged the European Central Bank, which began buying government bonds for the first time this month, to remain accommodative. The ECBs main policy rate has been held at 1 percent for more than a year and it should be kept there until late 2010, the OECD said.
It also urged the Frankfurt-based central bank to provide a clear road map on the offsetting and the eventual unwinding of long-term asset holdings so as to anchor long-term inflation expectations, which in some cases have drifted up.
In Germany, the euro regions biggest economy, the recovery remains intact and growth should pick up strongly as global trade improves and companies boost investment, according to the report. Germany will expand 1.9 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2011, it said.
France will expand 1.7 percent and 2.1 percent this year and next, while the United Kingdom, a neighbor to the euro area, will grow 1.3 percent and 2.5 percent.
Britain, where David Cameron replaced Gordon Brown as prime minister earlier in May, is trailing the two other biggest economies in Europe because of high inflation and the lingering effects from the credit crunch, the OECD said. Cameron pledged to speed up measures to reduce the U.K.s record budget deficit as he outlined his governments legislative plan.
While fiscal policy supported activity in 2009, it will be a drag on activity from 2010 onwards, the OECD said. The OECDs forecast for euro-area growth next year barely budged, rising to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent, while Japans outlook was maintained at 2 percent growth.
See? It already changed from-6% to 6.8%. the grow changes every week 100% indigenous indians..the grow percentage at the end of december counts.
The Paris-based OECD had predicted 3.7 percent growth in a November study. The strength of exports together with a revival in consumer spending have helped the economy revive sharply after a 4.9 percent contraction last year, the group said in a report published Wednesday.
Turkey slashed interest rates to a record low last year and offered tax breaks to consumers buying items such as cars and home appliances to pull the economy out of recession. Exporters have sought to diversify their markets, targeting Russia and oil-producing Middle East nations as demand in Turkeys main European trading partners remained weak.
Exports rose 23 percent from a year earlier to $35.1 billion in the first four months of 2010, according to the Turkish Assembly of Exporters. It will be crucial for exporters to keep prices competitive as the Turkish Lira gains against the euro, the OECD said.
Consumer confidence rose to the highest for more than two years in April, official statistics show. The OECD forecast a 5.7 percent increase in private consumption this year. The benchmark stock index jumped 12 percent between January and April, before losing the gains this month as the European debt crisis worsened.
Despite the economic growth, the OECD report said job creation in Turkey would not be strong enough to absorb a rapidly growing labor force and that unemployment would rise further.
Economic growth will not be enough to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate, already more than 14 percent, as young people and second-earners join the labor force, the OECD said. Turkeys challenge is to bring the black economy under registration to expand the tax base, while preserving the labor market flexibility currently achieved by companies and employees breaching existing rigid rules, it said.
"Prudent macroeconomic management helped to improve domestic and international confidence. Ongoing progress in fiscal transparency is expected to confirm this trend. Labor market reforms are needed to preserve competitiveness and foster sustainable employment growth," the organization said in its report.
"Employment in both rural and urban areas grew despite the contraction of output in 2009, reflecting large scale labor hoarding facilitated by nominal wage cuts. However, this was not enough to offset steady inflows of people to the labor market, driven by demographic factors and 'second earner' effects, which lead to higher unemployment," the report said.
According to the report, "Unemployment remains high despite the acceleration of growth and net job creation. Reducing the high unemployment rate [17 percent in urban areas and 27 percent for young urban workers] requires fundamental labor market reforms."
Unemployment is set to become a key political battleground in the run-up to elections due next year. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, elected head of the main opposition party last week, called it the countrys largest problem in his victory speech. The government is working with academics and business leaders to draw up a national employment strategy.
Turkey was only one of the emerging countries for which the OECD raised its growth forecasts. The economy of the OECDs 30 members will grow 2.7 percent this year, more than the 1.9 percent predicted in November, the Paris-based group said recently in a report. Including non-members such as China, the global economy will expand 4.6 percent this year and 4.5 percent in 2011, compared with an average of 3.7 percent during the decade through 2006.
The projections highlight a growing divergence in the global economy after it emerged last year from its worst slump in more than half a century. While the economies of China and India risk overheating, indebtedness may threaten expansion in the developed world, according to the OECD, which advises its members on policy.
A first substantive risk is related to developments in sovereign debt markets, OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan wrote in the report. Elsewhere, a boom-bust scenario cannot be ruled out, requiring a much stronger tightening of monetary policy in some countries, including China and India, he said.
Europes sovereign-debt crisis, triggered by Greece, has raised investor concern that the economic recovery will fade and sent equity markets around the world tumbling. The MSCI World Index is down 10 percent this year, while the S&P 500 Index in the U.S. has shed 3.7 percent and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index has dropped 14 percent.
US growth
Still, the U.S. economy will grow 3.2 percent in 2010 and next year instead of the 2.5 percent predicted in November, and the euro region will advance 1.2 percent compared with the previous forecast of 0.9 percent, the OECD said. Japans economy will expand 3 percent instead of 1.8 percent.
Those rates contrast with a far faster pace of growth in emerging economies. China will expand more than 11 percent this year, India 8.3 percent and Brazil 6.5 percent, according to OECD forecasts.
As activity gathers momentum, global imbalances are beginning to widen again, Padoan said. Strong, sustainable and more balanced growth can be achieved through a combination of macro-economic, exchange-rate and structural policies.
Chinas efforts to stoke domestic demand have helped keep its trade surplus from returning to the record levels registered in 2006 and 2007 before the financial crisis, the OECD said.
U.S.-China talks set up primarily to head off bilateral disputes focused this week on threats to global stability, including Europes debt crisis. Roughly 200 U.S. officials wrapped up meetings in Beijing recently as the euros decline to an eight-year low against the yen and a 4.7 percent plunge versus the won overshadowed sparring on trade and Chinas control of its exchange rate.
The relative weakness of the euro region puts the onus on its policy makers to improve their long-term coordination after agreeing earlier this month on a support package worth almost $1 trillion to help debt-burdened countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal, the OECD said.
The European effort, culminating in a finance ministers meeting in Brussels on May 9, was comparable with that made to shore up banks in Western countries in October 2008.
Lingering instability
The fact that the second set of actions has been taken 18 months after the first is a reminder that the period of significant financial instability that began in August 2007 is not yet over, Padoan said. Short-term policy responses are not without long-term consequences. Above all, rising indebtedness and widespread moral hazard will reduce room for policy action, if needed, in future.
The OECD said the euro area needs to increase wage and price flexibility, change investment structures and consider raising retirement ages to help contain divergences between countries.
The organization urged the European Central Bank, which began buying government bonds for the first time this month, to remain accommodative. The ECBs main policy rate has been held at 1 percent for more than a year and it should be kept there until late 2010, the OECD said.
It also urged the Frankfurt-based central bank to provide a clear road map on the offsetting and the eventual unwinding of long-term asset holdings so as to anchor long-term inflation expectations, which in some cases have drifted up.
In Germany, the euro regions biggest economy, the recovery remains intact and growth should pick up strongly as global trade improves and companies boost investment, according to the report. Germany will expand 1.9 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2011, it said.
France will expand 1.7 percent and 2.1 percent this year and next, while the United Kingdom, a neighbor to the euro area, will grow 1.3 percent and 2.5 percent.
Britain, where David Cameron replaced Gordon Brown as prime minister earlier in May, is trailing the two other biggest economies in Europe because of high inflation and the lingering effects from the credit crunch, the OECD said. Cameron pledged to speed up measures to reduce the U.K.s record budget deficit as he outlined his governments legislative plan.
While fiscal policy supported activity in 2009, it will be a drag on activity from 2010 onwards, the OECD said. The OECDs forecast for euro-area growth next year barely budged, rising to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent, while Japans outlook was maintained at 2 percent growth.
