dBSPL
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Mar 2, 2018
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The idea that alternative production centers will strengthen their position as a result of increasing global freight prices and especially US-centered anti-China policies can be the mainstay here. Compared to other emerging Asian economies, Turkey has a significant advantage in transportation costs and has almost completely covered the transportation and infrastructure deficiencies in the last 15-20 years. İn addition to that the legal and financial infrastructure, especially the customs union agreement, has been running successfully for more than 30 years.
In other words, considering the structure of the Turkish industry and the geopolitics it is in, the devaluation of TRY is not a negative policy, at least technically. However, the main problem is that this transformation is taking place so quickly that it threatens the living standards of the households. Rapid exchange rate increase is the main problem that triggers inflation. Because Turkey is still dependent on foreign sources for energy and its import-based luxury consumption is still very high compared to its income.
In terms of energy, -which is Turkey's main import item-, Turkey will have come a long way in a predictable period of 10-to-15 years. There is great effort in renewable energy and access to nuclear energy. Also, as you know, Turkey will soon be in a position to produce the natural gas it needs.
Turkey's main export market is the Eurozone. Although there is a development towards other markets, this picture will not change much in the near future. In bilateral trade balances, the positive trend with the EU region is getting stronger. The existing trade deficit with China is trying to being overcome by enabling Chinese electronic companies to invest and produce here with government subsidies.
It is a known fact that the president is obsessed with interest rate policies. Despite the fact that the country has been subjected to many financial attacks since 2013, it persistently criticizes the interest rate policies and constantly expresses an opinion to reduce it. Whether you can call this a lack of foresight or a painful transition, common idea is that it plays a motor role in the devaluation of TRY.
A dangerous and difficult game is being played in the Turkish currency markets. If we can get out of here, the Turkish economy will transform in line with its geopolitics and emerge stronger. However, it should not be forgotten that a strong economy is a product of strong law. If equal opportunity is lost, if the shattered confidence in the country's justice system cannot be mended, the markets will have nothing but mountains of debt, even though they bear the cost.
In other words, considering the structure of the Turkish industry and the geopolitics it is in, the devaluation of TRY is not a negative policy, at least technically. However, the main problem is that this transformation is taking place so quickly that it threatens the living standards of the households. Rapid exchange rate increase is the main problem that triggers inflation. Because Turkey is still dependent on foreign sources for energy and its import-based luxury consumption is still very high compared to its income.
In terms of energy, -which is Turkey's main import item-, Turkey will have come a long way in a predictable period of 10-to-15 years. There is great effort in renewable energy and access to nuclear energy. Also, as you know, Turkey will soon be in a position to produce the natural gas it needs.
Turkey's main export market is the Eurozone. Although there is a development towards other markets, this picture will not change much in the near future. In bilateral trade balances, the positive trend with the EU region is getting stronger. The existing trade deficit with China is trying to being overcome by enabling Chinese electronic companies to invest and produce here with government subsidies.
It is a known fact that the president is obsessed with interest rate policies. Despite the fact that the country has been subjected to many financial attacks since 2013, it persistently criticizes the interest rate policies and constantly expresses an opinion to reduce it. Whether you can call this a lack of foresight or a painful transition, common idea is that it plays a motor role in the devaluation of TRY.
A dangerous and difficult game is being played in the Turkish currency markets. If we can get out of here, the Turkish economy will transform in line with its geopolitics and emerge stronger. However, it should not be forgotten that a strong economy is a product of strong law. If equal opportunity is lost, if the shattered confidence in the country's justice system cannot be mended, the markets will have nothing but mountains of debt, even though they bear the cost.
