muse
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Dr. Fatemi has been advising Nawaz Sharif - but he seems not lost it completely, he can still fathoms signals:
Some ominous developments
By Tariq Fatemi
INDIA takes great pride in its claim to be the worlds largest functioning democracy a claim not altogether without some truth to it.
This does not however mean that New Delhi shows special consideration for democratic governments in neighbouring states. In fact, as devoted students of Chanakya (an illustrious predecessor of Machiavelli), they cannot but be skilful practitioners of realpolitik.
Some of our politicians may have hoped that New Delhi would look with favour upon a recently restored democratic government in Pakistan, but India remains wedded to its traditional approaches. If anything, India appears to have ratcheted up its diatribe against Pakistan. Much of it has been repetitive, both in content and presentation, and revolves primarily around allegations that Pakistani intelligence and security agencies are hand in glove with extremists and terrorists. India also holds Pakistan responsible for increased militancy in occupied Kashmir. But what is deeply worrying is a new stridency in New Delhis pronouncements.
The depth of the distrust that pervades Pakistan-India bilateral ties came out in a most dramatic fashion during the meeting of the foreign secretaries in New Delhi on July 21. Though it was an inaugural session of the fifth round of the composite dialogue process, the Indians refused to let diplomatic niceties hide their annoyance with Pakistan.
The Indian foreign secretary, in his press comments, charged that the attack on Indias embassy in Kabul on July 7 had been carried out with the help and connivance of Pakistans intelligence agencies and that this had placed the dialogue process under stress. Menon added that the talks were taking place at a difficult time in our relationship with Pakistan, especially as there have been several issues in the recent past which have vitiated the atmosphere. In this context, he referred to violations on the Line of Control, cross-border terrorism, incitement to violence in Kashmir and public statements by Pakistani leaders who were reverting to the old polemics.
Pakistans new foreign secretary, Salman Bashir, a cool and skilful diplomat, however refused to be ensnared in the blame game, but affirmed that we do not have to prove our credentials to anyone. We are engaged at the forefront of the fight against terror. He also warned India that the blame game could be played by both sides, as Pakistan had evidence of Indian involvement in Balochistan and Fata.
Admittedly, the suicide bomb attack on the embassy in Kabul must have been a painful shock to the Indians, especially as it resulted in the death of two senior officials, one of whom was involved in intelligence activities. But the speed and stridency of the Indian reaction betrayed an inbuilt mistrust of Pakistan. Even more disconcerting was the harsh and intemperate words used by the Indian national security adviser, who not only accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack but also demanded the destruction of the ISI. To make such a demand without even waiting for the probes results was uncalled for, especially as the Indians have so far not shared any evidence that could point in our direction.
To our good fortune, the Bush administration refused to endorse the Indian charges while calling on the two governments to share available intelligence on the subject. It nevertheless appears that New Delhi has reached the conclusion that the recent Taliban resurgence has opened up fresh opportunities that could be exploited to its advantage. After all, it has long been Indias aim to paint Pakistan with the tar brush of terrorism, an effort that was most pronounced in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, when it launched a major campaign to arrogate to itself the same right to unilateral action claimed by the Bush administration.
Now, with the Bush administrations growing alarm over the Taliban resurgence and its annoyance with what it suspects is a lackadaisical attitude of the democratic government in Pakistan, New Delhi has seized, with gusto, the opportunity to join in the chorus of denunciations emanating from Washington. It recognises that this plays well with powerful elements in the US while allowing it to reinforce its presence in Afghanistan, and of course keeping Islamabad off balance in relations with other powers.
Manmohan Singh is a pragmatic politician with little regard for ideological considerations, as demonstrated by his determination to obtain the Lok Sabhas approval of the nuclear deal with the US, going to the extent of risking his government. Some may accuse him of having engaged in subterfuge, stealth and deception in imposing the nuclear deal (as claimed by veteran journalist Praful Bidwai), but to the victor go the spoils of the day.
It also confirms the assessment of analysts, including this scribe, that the nuclear deal should not be seen merely as bringing nuclear technology to India. It is a far more important development that contains within it the seeds of a strategic partnership between the US and India that is likely to have major implications for Pakistan and the region. It also represents the formal abandonment of Indias long-held policy of not being tied to any superpower, as well as Americas recognition of Indias status as a nuclear weapons state.
In fact, acceptance of this country-specific concession by the IAEA and the NSG would be disastrous for the international non-proliferation regime. This needs to be resisted vigorously, for it would sanctify Pakistans clearly discriminatory treatment vis-à-vis India.
The current warmth between India and the US was initiated by Clinton but deepened by Bush. And Obama has spoken of his determination to focus on India, along with Japan, Korea and Australia, to create a stable and prosperous Asia. As far as Pakistan is concerned, Obama sees the cave-spotted mountains of Northern Pakistan, with the same, if not greater, concern than the centrifuges spinning beneath Irans soil. This is all indicative of the way the wind is blowing in Washington.
Do we see the first signs of a nexus between the US, India and Afghanistan, to come down hard on Pakistan? Though a partner of the US in the war on terror and a non-Nato ally to boot, we are likely to come under increased pressure to do more, even if it means greater turmoil within Pakistan. Prime Minister Gilani was likely impressed by the glamour of the White House welcome, but the gathering clouds portend ominous developments that call for a strong, resolute and clear-headed leadership.
Some ominous developments
By Tariq Fatemi
INDIA takes great pride in its claim to be the worlds largest functioning democracy a claim not altogether without some truth to it.
This does not however mean that New Delhi shows special consideration for democratic governments in neighbouring states. In fact, as devoted students of Chanakya (an illustrious predecessor of Machiavelli), they cannot but be skilful practitioners of realpolitik.
Some of our politicians may have hoped that New Delhi would look with favour upon a recently restored democratic government in Pakistan, but India remains wedded to its traditional approaches. If anything, India appears to have ratcheted up its diatribe against Pakistan. Much of it has been repetitive, both in content and presentation, and revolves primarily around allegations that Pakistani intelligence and security agencies are hand in glove with extremists and terrorists. India also holds Pakistan responsible for increased militancy in occupied Kashmir. But what is deeply worrying is a new stridency in New Delhis pronouncements.
The depth of the distrust that pervades Pakistan-India bilateral ties came out in a most dramatic fashion during the meeting of the foreign secretaries in New Delhi on July 21. Though it was an inaugural session of the fifth round of the composite dialogue process, the Indians refused to let diplomatic niceties hide their annoyance with Pakistan.
The Indian foreign secretary, in his press comments, charged that the attack on Indias embassy in Kabul on July 7 had been carried out with the help and connivance of Pakistans intelligence agencies and that this had placed the dialogue process under stress. Menon added that the talks were taking place at a difficult time in our relationship with Pakistan, especially as there have been several issues in the recent past which have vitiated the atmosphere. In this context, he referred to violations on the Line of Control, cross-border terrorism, incitement to violence in Kashmir and public statements by Pakistani leaders who were reverting to the old polemics.
Pakistans new foreign secretary, Salman Bashir, a cool and skilful diplomat, however refused to be ensnared in the blame game, but affirmed that we do not have to prove our credentials to anyone. We are engaged at the forefront of the fight against terror. He also warned India that the blame game could be played by both sides, as Pakistan had evidence of Indian involvement in Balochistan and Fata.
Admittedly, the suicide bomb attack on the embassy in Kabul must have been a painful shock to the Indians, especially as it resulted in the death of two senior officials, one of whom was involved in intelligence activities. But the speed and stridency of the Indian reaction betrayed an inbuilt mistrust of Pakistan. Even more disconcerting was the harsh and intemperate words used by the Indian national security adviser, who not only accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack but also demanded the destruction of the ISI. To make such a demand without even waiting for the probes results was uncalled for, especially as the Indians have so far not shared any evidence that could point in our direction.
To our good fortune, the Bush administration refused to endorse the Indian charges while calling on the two governments to share available intelligence on the subject. It nevertheless appears that New Delhi has reached the conclusion that the recent Taliban resurgence has opened up fresh opportunities that could be exploited to its advantage. After all, it has long been Indias aim to paint Pakistan with the tar brush of terrorism, an effort that was most pronounced in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, when it launched a major campaign to arrogate to itself the same right to unilateral action claimed by the Bush administration.
Now, with the Bush administrations growing alarm over the Taliban resurgence and its annoyance with what it suspects is a lackadaisical attitude of the democratic government in Pakistan, New Delhi has seized, with gusto, the opportunity to join in the chorus of denunciations emanating from Washington. It recognises that this plays well with powerful elements in the US while allowing it to reinforce its presence in Afghanistan, and of course keeping Islamabad off balance in relations with other powers.
Manmohan Singh is a pragmatic politician with little regard for ideological considerations, as demonstrated by his determination to obtain the Lok Sabhas approval of the nuclear deal with the US, going to the extent of risking his government. Some may accuse him of having engaged in subterfuge, stealth and deception in imposing the nuclear deal (as claimed by veteran journalist Praful Bidwai), but to the victor go the spoils of the day.
It also confirms the assessment of analysts, including this scribe, that the nuclear deal should not be seen merely as bringing nuclear technology to India. It is a far more important development that contains within it the seeds of a strategic partnership between the US and India that is likely to have major implications for Pakistan and the region. It also represents the formal abandonment of Indias long-held policy of not being tied to any superpower, as well as Americas recognition of Indias status as a nuclear weapons state.
In fact, acceptance of this country-specific concession by the IAEA and the NSG would be disastrous for the international non-proliferation regime. This needs to be resisted vigorously, for it would sanctify Pakistans clearly discriminatory treatment vis-à-vis India.
The current warmth between India and the US was initiated by Clinton but deepened by Bush. And Obama has spoken of his determination to focus on India, along with Japan, Korea and Australia, to create a stable and prosperous Asia. As far as Pakistan is concerned, Obama sees the cave-spotted mountains of Northern Pakistan, with the same, if not greater, concern than the centrifuges spinning beneath Irans soil. This is all indicative of the way the wind is blowing in Washington.
Do we see the first signs of a nexus between the US, India and Afghanistan, to come down hard on Pakistan? Though a partner of the US in the war on terror and a non-Nato ally to boot, we are likely to come under increased pressure to do more, even if it means greater turmoil within Pakistan. Prime Minister Gilani was likely impressed by the glamour of the White House welcome, but the gathering clouds portend ominous developments that call for a strong, resolute and clear-headed leadership.
