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The Indian government is facing a growing challenge from Islamist militancy as the two preeminent transitional jihadist organisations - the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda - increasingly focus on India and the wider South Asia region in order to dominate the militant Islamist discourse in the country. Both groups have begun outreach efforts using social networks and through the release of propaganda materials on social media platforms to galvanise support and foment radicalisation and recruitment in India. Underlining the mounting nature of the Islamic State's influence in the country, the Indian government banned the group on 16 December in an attempt to rein in its sympathisers.
India is no stranger to external jihadist actors pushing a radical agenda inside the country. Al-Qaeda has frequently appealed to Indian Muslims with its call to violence over the past decade, although it has largely been unsuccessful in mobilising the country's large Muslim population - estimated at 172 million in 2011. This inability to establish a strong presence in the country was probably a main factor in Al-Qaeda's formation of a new regional affiliate organisation in South Asia in September 2014, entitled Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).
Indeed, shortly after the formation of AQIS, Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri exhorted all Muslims in the region to unite under the leadership of AQIS emir Maulana Asim Umar, a Pakistani cleric of Indian origin. Umar had helped to articulate Al-Qaeda's propaganda strategy in India over the past several years, and his latest call came in the form of an article in the first issue of Al-Qaeda's new magazine Resurgence , released on 19 October 2014, in which he attacked the perceived Hindu domination of India and violence in the form of communal riots aimed at the minority Muslim population in the country. Although such propaganda may reverberate with disenchanted Muslim youths and potentially drive AQIS recruitment, there has been little indication of the new affiliate making significant headway in India, particularly compared with Pakistan and Bangladesh, where it has garnered noticeable levels of support on social media.
By contrast, the Islamic State has seemingly found traction within India relatively quickly. In his first public speech in July 2014, the Islamic State's leader Ibrahim al-Badri (alias Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) claimed that Indian nationals were among the group's ranks. Citing the issue of Kashmir, he also claimed that India was one of the countries where the rights of Muslims have been constantly violated. Baghdadi's words have been well received by elements within the Muslim population in India, with periodic instances of the flying of the Islamic State flag and masked men wearing fatigues with Islamic State insignia in various places in Kashmir, as well as in Chennai and other urban centres.
Notably, local media reported that prominent Sunni cleric Maulana Salman Nadwi of the Darul Uloom Nadwatul Ulama Islamic centre - based in the city of Lucknow in India's Uttar Pradesh state - had announced his support for Baghdadi in late July. Indian authorities fear this overt endorsement may influence and lure thousands of Nadwi's Muslim students towards the Islamic State.
The pull of the Islamic State was further underlined in May 2014 when four Indian engineering students from Kalyan, Maharashtra, travelled to Iraq via Turkey and joined the Islamic State. According to local media, one of the men who returned to India and was subsequently arrested in late November confessed to authorities to have undergone training in suicide bombing while abroad.
Another event that demonstrated the Islamic State's support base inside India was the arrest of a Bangalore-based man, Mehdi Masroor Biswas, who was suspected of running a popular and influential pro-Islamic State Twitter account used for incitement and recruitment purposes.
This growing low-level support for the Islamic State has already seemingly manifested into violence as the October 2014 arrest of Anees Ansari in the city of Mumbai underlines. According to Ansari's confessions to authorities, he had attempted a knife attack on a United States national in order to receive support and sympathy from the Islamic State. Ansari had also reportedly collected details from the internet about "flamethrowers" and "thermite bombs", and hinted at a plot to target US establishments including a school in Bandra, Mumbai.
The Islamic State has also garnered support from some India-centric militant formations such as the Maulana Abdul Rahman-led Ansar-ut-Tawheed fi Bilad al-Hind - a militant group comprising Indian nationals and some Indian Mujahideen fugitives that is active in Pakistan and has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Ansar-ut-Tawheed fi Bilad al-Hind has been promoting jihadist materials and other Islamist literature in several Indian languages, using social network platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter, as well as its media arm Al-Isabah Media.
Each of these developments is not overly significant on its own, but when viewed together they seem to counter a long-held conception that Indian Muslims were immune to Islamist radicalisation. Undoubtedly, India is very concerned by the Islamic State - and possibly to a lesser extent, by Al-Qaeda - and the possibility of the fundamental ideologies promoted by such groups finding root among disenchanted elements of the country's sizeable Muslim population. Indeed, the potential return of Indian nationals from fighting in Syria and Iraq, when combined with the persistent propaganda push targeting Indian Muslims by external groups, may indeed lead to an unprecedented increase in Islamist radicalisation and recruitment in the country.
OSINT Summary: Transnational jihad begins to make inroads in India - IHS Jane's 360
India is no stranger to external jihadist actors pushing a radical agenda inside the country. Al-Qaeda has frequently appealed to Indian Muslims with its call to violence over the past decade, although it has largely been unsuccessful in mobilising the country's large Muslim population - estimated at 172 million in 2011. This inability to establish a strong presence in the country was probably a main factor in Al-Qaeda's formation of a new regional affiliate organisation in South Asia in September 2014, entitled Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).
Indeed, shortly after the formation of AQIS, Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri exhorted all Muslims in the region to unite under the leadership of AQIS emir Maulana Asim Umar, a Pakistani cleric of Indian origin. Umar had helped to articulate Al-Qaeda's propaganda strategy in India over the past several years, and his latest call came in the form of an article in the first issue of Al-Qaeda's new magazine Resurgence , released on 19 October 2014, in which he attacked the perceived Hindu domination of India and violence in the form of communal riots aimed at the minority Muslim population in the country. Although such propaganda may reverberate with disenchanted Muslim youths and potentially drive AQIS recruitment, there has been little indication of the new affiliate making significant headway in India, particularly compared with Pakistan and Bangladesh, where it has garnered noticeable levels of support on social media.
By contrast, the Islamic State has seemingly found traction within India relatively quickly. In his first public speech in July 2014, the Islamic State's leader Ibrahim al-Badri (alias Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi) claimed that Indian nationals were among the group's ranks. Citing the issue of Kashmir, he also claimed that India was one of the countries where the rights of Muslims have been constantly violated. Baghdadi's words have been well received by elements within the Muslim population in India, with periodic instances of the flying of the Islamic State flag and masked men wearing fatigues with Islamic State insignia in various places in Kashmir, as well as in Chennai and other urban centres.
Notably, local media reported that prominent Sunni cleric Maulana Salman Nadwi of the Darul Uloom Nadwatul Ulama Islamic centre - based in the city of Lucknow in India's Uttar Pradesh state - had announced his support for Baghdadi in late July. Indian authorities fear this overt endorsement may influence and lure thousands of Nadwi's Muslim students towards the Islamic State.
The pull of the Islamic State was further underlined in May 2014 when four Indian engineering students from Kalyan, Maharashtra, travelled to Iraq via Turkey and joined the Islamic State. According to local media, one of the men who returned to India and was subsequently arrested in late November confessed to authorities to have undergone training in suicide bombing while abroad.
Another event that demonstrated the Islamic State's support base inside India was the arrest of a Bangalore-based man, Mehdi Masroor Biswas, who was suspected of running a popular and influential pro-Islamic State Twitter account used for incitement and recruitment purposes.
This growing low-level support for the Islamic State has already seemingly manifested into violence as the October 2014 arrest of Anees Ansari in the city of Mumbai underlines. According to Ansari's confessions to authorities, he had attempted a knife attack on a United States national in order to receive support and sympathy from the Islamic State. Ansari had also reportedly collected details from the internet about "flamethrowers" and "thermite bombs", and hinted at a plot to target US establishments including a school in Bandra, Mumbai.
The Islamic State has also garnered support from some India-centric militant formations such as the Maulana Abdul Rahman-led Ansar-ut-Tawheed fi Bilad al-Hind - a militant group comprising Indian nationals and some Indian Mujahideen fugitives that is active in Pakistan and has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. Ansar-ut-Tawheed fi Bilad al-Hind has been promoting jihadist materials and other Islamist literature in several Indian languages, using social network platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter, as well as its media arm Al-Isabah Media.
Each of these developments is not overly significant on its own, but when viewed together they seem to counter a long-held conception that Indian Muslims were immune to Islamist radicalisation. Undoubtedly, India is very concerned by the Islamic State - and possibly to a lesser extent, by Al-Qaeda - and the possibility of the fundamental ideologies promoted by such groups finding root among disenchanted elements of the country's sizeable Muslim population. Indeed, the potential return of Indian nationals from fighting in Syria and Iraq, when combined with the persistent propaganda push targeting Indian Muslims by external groups, may indeed lead to an unprecedented increase in Islamist radicalisation and recruitment in the country.
OSINT Summary: Transnational jihad begins to make inroads in India - IHS Jane's 360
