TPP failure would cost the US trade dominance
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LeveragedBuyout
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It is worth noting that the dominant Republican performance in the elections last night bodes well for TPP, since the Republicans have historically been strong supporters of free trade. The first test will be to see if "fast track" authority is granted to Obama, to provide confidence to our TPP counterparts that Congress will not amend any agreement that is reached.
TaiShang
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Is Obama (Democrats) stronger now, or weaker?
I do not have much faith on this, given the deep ideological divide. Why would they let Obama carry this through and put something grand on his resume a couple of years shy of into his way out of the White House?
But, I feel, Japan has now the upper hand to dictate its own terms on the US, which is a good thing for Tokyo and Mr. Abe.
On the other, deep concessions will make other partners uneasy. If Japan can get over loose regulations, why not each and single one of them?
Considerably weaker now. The democrats are a minority in both the House of Representatives and in the Senate. So if the Republicans want to enact policies, they can merely overpower the Democratic vote (which they can). Tho Obama can veto, but there are measures for Congress to bypass that, even.
I think that since the Republicans are in power, we can see more realistic compromise happening. The only reason why The Diet stalled with American negotiators was because of the uncertainty in the US legislative election.
American Democrats are very pro-protectionist, whereas the Republicans are very pro-business. And this may realize concessions on the Americans' part, as well as result in our sides' concessions to meet a compromise.
If America can reduce / remove some tariffs it has on our goods, namely our manufacturing / electronic export products, we'll be willing to reduce tariffs on American agricultural exports. There has to be an equal tit for tat.
TaiShang
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Obama becomes a real lame duck, and, if the Republicans allow him to pull this thing out, they must be out of their clear mind. Why just wait another year or so, and then, having won the White House, allow the new Republican president bask in TPP glory in his first year in office?
Japan also should push the US to agree to never carry on protectionist policies like the VERs on Japanese automobiles and electronics. As the GM used to say, why not "let the best car win?"
I guess, overall, Japan's position is considerably strengthened now. Japan can wait for a Republican government, if nothing.
On the other, however, as I said, concessions on Japan may not go well in other partner economies.
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As much as I admire and respect the time honored relations with America, as a Japanese Nationalist, I want to see greater integration between Japan and China. Our side should also strengthen the China-led regional comprehensive economic partnerships that are already around, which, ironically, also involves Japan but not the United States. Either way, we're in a win-win scenario because the integration with China through the CRCEP enables our prosperity with the region. Japan benefits, which is what I care about.
Japan’s Abe says Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks with U.S. are near ‘final stage’
TOKYO — Japan’s prime minister has affirmed his commitment to reaching a broad trade deal with the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations, even as Tokyo stands accused of refusing to budge on the thorny issue of agricultural tariffs.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement is a crucial component of Shinzo Abe’s plans to revive Japan’s economy after two “lost decades” of stagnation and falling prices, and the prime minister says reviving the economy is his top priority.
“My mission is to make sure that the Japanese economy really gets out of the deflation that has continued for more than 15 years,” Abe said this week during a wide-ranging interview with Lally Weymouth, The Washington Post’s senior associate editor, in which he talked about relations with China and the United States and his vision for the economy.
The economy is a political life-or-death issue for Abe, who has been able to advance his foreign policy agenda — including plans to allow Japan’s military to shake off some of its post-war shackles — partly because the economy was improving.
But boosting growth through freer trade has so far proven elusive for Abe.
TPP negotiations between the United States and Japan, the two largest members of the bloc, have stalled, partly over Japan’s reluctance to open its agricultural markets. The tariff on imported rice is 778 percent.
With both sides set to meet again Saturday ahead of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Beijing, Abe voiced optimism that the negotiations were nearing an end.
“I think it is arriving at the final stage,” Abe said, adding that he has instructed his trade minister, who walked out of a meeting with his U.S. counterpart in September, to work toward closing the deal.
On the U.S. side, prospects for political approval of the agreement are widely viewed as having improved this week after Republicans won control of the Senate. The party traditionally supports such trade deals and is considered more likely to give President Obama “fast track” authority to proceed.
Abe has learned a lot, his aides say, since he had to cut short his first stint as prime minister in 2007, the result of health problems and a series of political scandals in his cabinet.
In the intervening years before he returned to power at the end of 2012, Abe spent time studying economics — his weak point during his first tenure — and has returned to office much more confident, they say.
This time around, he has embarked on an ambitious “Abenomics” plan to kick-start Japan’s moribund economy by pumping in money, launching huge public works programs and making structural reforms to overhaul parts of the economy that had been holding it back, such as the labor market.
While his reforms initially gave the economy a boost, the gloss now appears to be coming off Abenomics.
Official data showed that the economy suddenly shrank in the second quarter, largely because the government raised the consumption tax by 3 points, to 8 percent, in April. It was the first time in 17 years that the tax had gone up, and the sudden increase in prices after years of deflation led consumers to put away their pocketbooks.
Abe is now weighing whether to go ahead with a second planned increase, to 10 percent, for October next year. He has said he will wait for the latest quarterly data, due Nov. 17, before deciding whether to press ahead.
He is being pulled in both directions by members of his party: the fiscal hawks who want to tackle Japan’s enormous public debt — at twice the size of the economy, it is the largest in the developed world — and those who say that if he focuses on boosting growth, the debt will fix itself.
“Our thinking is to raise it once again next year, up to 10 percent,” the prime minister said.
But reflecting his concern that raising the consumption tax again might amount to shooting the economy in the foot, Abe signaled that he had not yet made a decision.
“We should never see a situation where the economy will lose steam so that tax revenue will not increase,” he said.
His biggest priority is pulling Japan out of its 15-year deflationary spiral. While prices are no longer falling in Japan, they are not rising much, either.
Warning that it was hard to persuade Japan to shrug off its “deflationary mind-set,” the Bank of Japan last week announced another huge cash infusion for the economy. It said it would increase its asset-buying plan by as much as $200 billion to almost $800 billion annually.
The move was viewed not just as an attempt to boost inflation — the bank has signaled that it’s unlikely to hit its target of 2 percent inflation by early next year — but also as giving the government cover to increase the consumption tax again.
A panel of 45 experts has been chosen to help the prime minister decide whether to increase the sales tax. Five of the eight experts who met during a first session this week said the prime minister should go ahead with the increase.
“We are aiming at simultaneously attaining economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation,” Abe said. “This is the only way to go.”
Japan’s Abe says Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks with U.S. are near ‘final stage’ - The Washington Post
@LeveragedBuyout
TOKYO — Japan’s prime minister has affirmed his commitment to reaching a broad trade deal with the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations, even as Tokyo stands accused of refusing to budge on the thorny issue of agricultural tariffs.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement is a crucial component of Shinzo Abe’s plans to revive Japan’s economy after two “lost decades” of stagnation and falling prices, and the prime minister says reviving the economy is his top priority.
“My mission is to make sure that the Japanese economy really gets out of the deflation that has continued for more than 15 years,” Abe said this week during a wide-ranging interview with Lally Weymouth, The Washington Post’s senior associate editor, in which he talked about relations with China and the United States and his vision for the economy.
The economy is a political life-or-death issue for Abe, who has been able to advance his foreign policy agenda — including plans to allow Japan’s military to shake off some of its post-war shackles — partly because the economy was improving.
But boosting growth through freer trade has so far proven elusive for Abe.
TPP negotiations between the United States and Japan, the two largest members of the bloc, have stalled, partly over Japan’s reluctance to open its agricultural markets. The tariff on imported rice is 778 percent.
With both sides set to meet again Saturday ahead of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Beijing, Abe voiced optimism that the negotiations were nearing an end.
“I think it is arriving at the final stage,” Abe said, adding that he has instructed his trade minister, who walked out of a meeting with his U.S. counterpart in September, to work toward closing the deal.
On the U.S. side, prospects for political approval of the agreement are widely viewed as having improved this week after Republicans won control of the Senate. The party traditionally supports such trade deals and is considered more likely to give President Obama “fast track” authority to proceed.
Abe has learned a lot, his aides say, since he had to cut short his first stint as prime minister in 2007, the result of health problems and a series of political scandals in his cabinet.
In the intervening years before he returned to power at the end of 2012, Abe spent time studying economics — his weak point during his first tenure — and has returned to office much more confident, they say.
This time around, he has embarked on an ambitious “Abenomics” plan to kick-start Japan’s moribund economy by pumping in money, launching huge public works programs and making structural reforms to overhaul parts of the economy that had been holding it back, such as the labor market.
While his reforms initially gave the economy a boost, the gloss now appears to be coming off Abenomics.
Official data showed that the economy suddenly shrank in the second quarter, largely because the government raised the consumption tax by 3 points, to 8 percent, in April. It was the first time in 17 years that the tax had gone up, and the sudden increase in prices after years of deflation led consumers to put away their pocketbooks.
Abe is now weighing whether to go ahead with a second planned increase, to 10 percent, for October next year. He has said he will wait for the latest quarterly data, due Nov. 17, before deciding whether to press ahead.
He is being pulled in both directions by members of his party: the fiscal hawks who want to tackle Japan’s enormous public debt — at twice the size of the economy, it is the largest in the developed world — and those who say that if he focuses on boosting growth, the debt will fix itself.
“Our thinking is to raise it once again next year, up to 10 percent,” the prime minister said.
But reflecting his concern that raising the consumption tax again might amount to shooting the economy in the foot, Abe signaled that he had not yet made a decision.
“We should never see a situation where the economy will lose steam so that tax revenue will not increase,” he said.
His biggest priority is pulling Japan out of its 15-year deflationary spiral. While prices are no longer falling in Japan, they are not rising much, either.
Warning that it was hard to persuade Japan to shrug off its “deflationary mind-set,” the Bank of Japan last week announced another huge cash infusion for the economy. It said it would increase its asset-buying plan by as much as $200 billion to almost $800 billion annually.
The move was viewed not just as an attempt to boost inflation — the bank has signaled that it’s unlikely to hit its target of 2 percent inflation by early next year — but also as giving the government cover to increase the consumption tax again.
A panel of 45 experts has been chosen to help the prime minister decide whether to increase the sales tax. Five of the eight experts who met during a first session this week said the prime minister should go ahead with the increase.
“We are aiming at simultaneously attaining economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation,” Abe said. “This is the only way to go.”
Japan’s Abe says Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks with U.S. are near ‘final stage’ - The Washington Post
@LeveragedBuyout
kawaraj
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Don’t just blame the stalling on US-Japan agricultural hurdles.
The US and China seemed inking the climate change initiatives,and some Japanese analysts suspect the big two also have a plan on trade or through WTO next rounds. Besides, the recent AIIB has shown foreseeable trend in the multilateral efforts, and the Philippines just quit TPP talk. What do you opinion on this developing story.
Abe should stop wasteing time and resources on the meaningless discussion before trapping in another deflation nightmare.
The TPP: Doomed to fail? | Embassy - Canada's Foreign Policy Newspaper
The US and China seemed inking the climate change initiatives,and some Japanese analysts suspect the big two also have a plan on trade or through WTO next rounds. Besides, the recent AIIB has shown foreseeable trend in the multilateral efforts, and the Philippines just quit TPP talk. What do you opinion on this developing story.
Abe should stop wasteing time and resources on the meaningless discussion before trapping in another deflation nightmare.
The TPP: Doomed to fail? | Embassy - Canada's Foreign Policy Newspaper
TTP was doomed to fail since very beginning-everyone with a properly working brain did know it.TTP is just USA corporate racket nothing else.Even most obedient USA bootlickers will think twice before even starting to consider it.China has already won the hearts of East Asian countries for their own trade agreement. TTP and its EU cousin-just a very crude and desperate attempts by USA to save their own skin at the expense of rest of the world(as usual) .
Götterdämmerung
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There is one difference between TPP and TTIP, the US has to negotiate with individual countries in the Pacific region, which of course is much harder to get a common consensus. In the EU, the secret negotiation are all done with one partner, the EU bureaucracy in Brussels. Although it's against the constitution of each member countries, I'm afraid we'll have to swallow the frog if the public does not voice loud enough against this treaty.
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