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TPP failure would cost the US trade dominance

Japanese use Chinese character "米“ (means "rice", sounds "Mi") to refer to America.

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Republican candidate Donald Trump’s stunning election victory has left some of Asia’s biggest companies that rely on business with the US grappling with uncertainty, amid hopes the presidentelect will tone down his threats to impose tariffs on imports and rework global trade treaties.

In Japan, companies from Sony to Toyota saw their share prices hammered on Wednesday as the prospect of Mr Trump’s election victory pushed the Japanese yen higher against the US dollar, hurting some of the region’s biggest exporters.

Mr Trump’s victory has underlined the uncertainty surrounding his policy positions. Boardrooms globally have been unsettled by his threats to renegotiate trade deals he views as damaging to US jobs, and levy tariffs as high as 45 per cent on imports from China, Mexico and elsewhere. “We hope president Trump is more nuanced than candidate Trump,” said Jake Parker, vice-president of China operations at the US-China Business Council.

Investors dumped shares of Japanese and South Korean carmakers as Mr Trump’s victory became clear. Toyota, Honda and Nissan lean heavily on manufacturing US-bound exports from Mexico, particularly to meet rising demand from American car buyers for trucks and sport-utility vehicles.

To be sure, analysts question whether Mr Trump can ultimately unwind complex, global deals or impose such drastic tariffs.

But carmakers in particular would be hit if Mr Trump follows through with his threat to slap a 35 per cent tariff on cars imported from Mexico.

Toyota recently announced plans to expand capacity at its factory in Baja California, Mexico, that produces its Tacoma midsize truck, while Honda plans to ramp up exports of the popular HR-V crossover from there to meet US demand.

Nissan builds many of its small cars in Mexico, like the Sentra and Versa, and around half of its production there was exported to the US Last fiscal year, ended March 31, a quarter of Nissan vehicles sold in the US were made in Mexico.

Toyota lost 6.5 per cent, Honda slumped 7.8 per cent and Nissan tumbled 6 per cent in Tokyo on Wednesday. The companies declined to comment.

Hyundai and its affiliate Kia Motors are among the South Korean companies that stand to lose if Mr Trump follows the protectionist path he threatened during his campaign, said analysts. Both companies saw their shares fall by more than 3 per cent in Seoul on Wednesday. A Hyundai-Kia group spokesman declined to comment.

“Under Mr Trump’s leadership, the US government could embark on a renegotiation of free trade deals, including the US-Korea FTA,” said KTB Investment & Securities analyst Moon Yongkwon. “This is bad news for global carmakers, including Hyundai and Kia, which depend on US for growth.

Tariffs on Chinese imports would increase prices consumers pay for electronic goods across the board, regardless of brand, say analysts.

Nearly all the world’s major electronics companies — including Apple, Dell, Cisco Systems and IBM — rely heavily on China for manufacturing.

Tariffs from the US would likely accelerate China’s push to build a parallel technology ecosystem that doesn’t rely on the US, which would hurt US technology vendors seeking access to the vast market.

“Rather than build protectionist walls, we should boost American exports by reducing (the) trade and market access barriers that China uses to keep out American manufactured goods, services and agricultural products,” Mr Parker said.

Issues such as immigration and outsourcing, key pillars of India-US ties, were themes of Mr Trump’s campaign. Large numbers of Indians work in the US, including many IT professionals who use a visa program that facilitates the hiring of skilled foreign workers, and analysts said companies should be concerned about such programs now being curtailed.

A spokeswoman for India’s largest software exporter by revenue, Tata Consultancy Services, declined to comment on what a Trump presidency would mean for the company.
 
“Rather than build protectionist walls, we should boost American exports by reducing (the) trade and market access barriers that China uses to keep out American manufactured goods, services and agricultural products,” Mr Parker said.

Exactly. And they can start by lifting the arbitrary hostile sanctions against Huawei and ZTE.

After all, if they are not better than Cisco and the likes, they will be removed by the market forces.

As for US companies coming to China, they will be slaughtered and settle for a minimal market share given that even apple has been on the backtrack slippery mode in China although there is no barrier against them.
 
Exactly. And they can start by lifting the arbitrary hostile sanctions against Huawei and ZTE.

After all, if they are not better than Cisco and the likes, they will be removed by the market forces.

As for US companies coming to China, they will be slaughtered and settle for a minimal market share given that even apple has been on the backtrack slippery mode in China although there is no barrier against them.

This is the prime example of tit for tat.
U ban me, i ban you
 
Why not continue to work to seal the TPP deal without the Americans? Even without USA, the deal still contains many large trading countries; like Japan, South Korea, Canada, Vietnam..etc.
 
Why not continue to work to seal the TPP deal without the Americans? Even without USA, the deal still contains many large trading countries; like Japan, South Korea, Canada, Vietnam..etc.

Are you naive or simply stupid?
 
Why not continue to work to seal the TPP deal without the Americans? Even without USA, the deal still contains many large trading countries; like Japan, South Korea, Canada, Vietnam..etc.
The deal will continue, Trump will sign the deal cos TPP bring lots of benefit to US pharmaceutical industry. Trump just promise to remain Obamacare keys.

.
Trump: Obamacare key provisions to remain
_92409421_hi036281407.jpg

Image captionDonald Trump called Obamacare "a total disaster" during the campaign
US President-elect Donald Trump has said he is open to leaving intact key parts of President Barack Obama's healthcare bill.

Mr Trump, who has pledged to repeal the 2010 law, said he will keep the ban on insurers denying coverage for pre-existing conditions.

He told the Wall Street Journal that he also favoured allowing young adults to be insured on their parents' policies.

"I like those very much," Mr Trump said of the two pillars of the bill.

http://fxncc.com/trump-obamacare-key-provisions-to-remain-47601/

If Vietnam is the biggest winner of the birth of TPP, then who will be the largest loser to the death of TPP?
TPP or none TPP, we still living in fertile lands with cozy weather in the South, not in barren-useless desert :cool:
 
Are you naive or simply stupid?

Only naive people think they know all the answers and the only stupid question is the one that goes unasked. That's is why I am asking. If the TPP is fundamentally sound and fair and that it can benefit any and all countries involed then there is no reason why they shouldn't continue with the deal. But that is a question too.
 
The deal will continue, Trump will sign the deal cos TPP bring lots of benefit to US pharmaceutical industry. Trump just promise to remain Obamacare keys.

I dont' know enough to know if TPP will be over or not, but it is surely delayed.

What you said is true. TPP was basically written by the Americans for the Americans (big American corporations at least)
And other countries, like Vietnam and Philippines were basically told to sign on the dotted line and that's good for them. If TPP get passed, big American business will get great leverage and power over less developed countries through powerful non-public, non-transparent litigations.
 
I dont' know enough to know if TPP will be over or not, but it is surely delayed.

What you said is true. TPP was basically written by the Americans for the Americans (big American corporations at least)
And other countries, like Vietnam and Philippines were basically told to sign on the dotted line and that's good for them. If TPP get passed, big American business will get great leverage and power over less developed countries through powerful non-public, non-transparent litigations.
Trump is bussinessman,he soon will join pharma industry,selling drug and get more money.

VN can buy more US drug when we can sell more products to US.Both get more jobs,more money...I see no reason for Trump to stop TPP.
 
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/11/16/after-tpp-australia-looks-to-china-on-trade/
TRADE WINDS
After TPP, Australia Looks To China On Trade
Trade winds are quickly shifting, as Australia moves to embrace China’s alternatives to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).Financial Timesreports:

Australia is throwing its weight behind China’s efforts to pursue newtrade dealsin the Asia-Pacific region amid a growing acknowledgement the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is dead in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory.

Steven Ciobo, Australia’s trade minister, told the Financial Times that Canberra would work to conclude new agreement among 16 Asian and Pacific countries that excludes the US.


He said Australia would also support a separate proposal, the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, which Beijing hopes to advance at this week’s Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Peru.


“Any move that reduces barriers to trade and helps us facilitate trade, facilitate exports and drive economic growth and employment is a step in the right direction,” Mr Ciobo said Wednesday.


As wenoted this past week, the election of Donald Trump and theimminent demise of TPPhave given China an opening to pitch its own trade deals. Australia is the first major U.S. ally to peel off and publicly announce its intention to sign on to China’s deals. Others may soon follow suit, as China makes a renewed push to finalize the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), which has been under discussion for over a decade, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which China has been developing since 2012.

The United States will be present at discussions about FTAAP in Peru this year, but given the current circumstances it is unlikely to join in. If China does negotiate a successful deal, it will be a major economic and diplomatic achievement for Beijing, potentially allowing Beijing to set the rules of the road for Pacific trade for the foreseeable future.


Throughout his campaign, Donald Trump took a harsh rhetorical stance against free trade, much to the delight of his base, while the Left has been animated by a protectionist backlash as well. Yet the abdication of U.S. leadership on free trade is set to give Beijing a major victory at Washington’s expense. The Trump Administration will need to pursue an alternative strategy to restore U.S. credibility and ensure that the United States remains relevant in the Pacific.
 
Trump vows to withdraw from TPP on first day in office

Xinhua, November 22, 2016

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File photo taken on July 16, 2016 shows U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends a campaign event in New York, the United States. [Photo/Xinhua]


U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced Monday that he will withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on his first day in office.

"I'm going to issue a notification of intent to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a potential disaster for our country," Trump said.

Trump made the remarks in a short video in which he outlined his policy plans for the first 100 days in office.

"Instead, we'll negotiate fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry onto American shores," he added.

Trump said he will cancel "job-killing restrictions on the productions of American energy......creating many millions of high-paying jobs."

On ethics reform, government officials will be banned from becoming lobbyists within the first five years after leaving office and will be banned from lobbying on behalf of a foreign government for life.

Trump also pledged to draw up a comprehensive national security plan and order a probe into visa program abuses.

On regulation, Trump said for every one new regulation, two old ones must be eliminated.

The policies are aimed at reforming Washington and rebuilding the American middle class, Trump said.

Trump ascended to presidency earlier this month after beating Democrat Hillary Clinton. He is now in the process of forming his administration and preparing for officially taking over the White House on Jan. 20.

The TPP, a free trade pact between 12 Asia-Pacific countries, has been signed but not yet ratified by the U.S. lawmakers. During his election campaign, Trump had said he strongly opposed the deal.
***

Thank you, Mr. President!

@Beidou2020
 
The more Trump thinks of bring back jobs into US from countries like India or limiting H1B visas, the more US will loose its predominance. He should remember that US companies are global companies with majority of them earning major share of their revenues outside US. For companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook etc.. US is saturated markets and their future depends on markets of countries such as India. An inward looking US administration will jeopardize its own economy more than of others.
 

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