TPP failure would cost the US trade dominance

[GS Zhou]

The emerging Trumped populist power unveils the official start of the collapse of a war-mongering regime.
This is a significant sign of paradigm shift in geopolitics.

I understand your point. But I just dislike to put the bet on opponent's fall. That's why I say the only thing we should do is to fully concentrate on our own agenda.

 

[AndrewJin]

Chinese has started The"one Belt one Road"layout, and the ongoing domestic industrial upgrading.
Is India ready yet?

If he really wants to start a trader war, it will further drive their allies to China.
And those with the most backward manufacturing will suffer the most!
Especially for those with a huge number of jobless labour but with primitive manufacturing capacity.
Automation, industrial upgrading (industry 4.0), big middle-class market, etc, favour giant manufacturing powerhouses.

I understand your point. But I just dislike to put the bet on opponent's fall. That's why I say the only thing we should do is to fully concentrate on our own agenda.

Both of them will inevitably drive the rust country into hell, but in different way.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Trump is German (Ancestory alleged ), has no connection with Australia or Britain

 

[randomradio]

You can replace the word “india" in your comment with many countries.

He has said many countries.
He also claimed he wanted Apple and many manufacturing back and at the same time RSSers are cheering up.
Do these people have the slightest ideas of industrial chain and global business?

I suggest you read the article again, it is talking about geopolitics as opposed to some superficial points.

The conclusion in the article is wrong. Trump is not going to stop TTP. More importantly, he will increase tariffs for imports into the US.

His only priority is increasing manufacturing jobs, because that's the easiest to achieve, especially with automation. With services, it's not as easy because the US doesn't have replacements. And building an industry supply chain is not difficult for the US.

Something to think about.
https://yourstory.com/2016/05/apple-expand-manufacturing-india-china/

Right wing is cheering in India for his policy on Muslims. Nothing to do with Apple.

Chinese has started The"one Belt one Road"layout, and the ongoing domestic industrial upgrading.
Is India ready yet?

For what?

 

[Razia Sultana]

Chinese has started The"one Belt one Road"layout, and the ongoing domestic industrial upgrading.
Is India ready yet?

One Belt One Road is synonymous with huge trade imbalances with China. Instead Chinese should start manufacturing in their client countries if they want to increase or even keep the market share.

 

[艹艹艹]

One Belt One Road is synonymous with huge trade imbalances with China. Instead Chinese should start manufacturing in their client countries if they want to increase or even keep the market share.

 

[Gijoe]

One Belt One Road is synonymous with huge trade imbalances with China. Instead Chinese should start manufacturing in their client countries if they want to increase or even keep the market share.

Doing business elsewhere is safer and get richer better then doing business in India. Samsung had learned their lesson from note 7... lol kaboom

 

[AndrewJin]

The conclusion in the article is wrong. Trump is not going to stop TTP. More importantly, he will increase tariffs for imports into the US.

His only priority is increasing manufacturing jobs, because that's the easiest to achieve, especially with automation. With services, it's not as easy because the US doesn't have replacements. And building an industry supply chain is not difficult for the US.

Something to think about.
https://yourstory.com/2016/05/apple-expand-manufacturing-india-china/

Right wing is cheering in India for his policy on Muslims. Nothing to do with Apple.



For what?

Then according to your logics, Apple will not step up factory in india because they need such jobs and india's apple market is too tiny (less than 10% of China's apple market).

China has established manufacturing cooperation with many countries outside US.
And China is the biggest market of nearly all tangible goods, from smart phone to cars, from A/C to TBMs.

Building a supply chain (do they know how?) will pose 10 times more threat to india and all these kind of emerging countries with tremendous young labor and very little industrial technology.

 

[AMCA]

Doing business elsewhere is safer and get richer better then doing business in India. Samsung had learned their lesson from note 7... lol kaboom

Are Made in India Samsung Mobiles sold Globally? "La Kaboom" was heard in France too!!

 

[AndrewJin]

Trump is not going to stop TTP.

lol
The anti-TTP rhetoric is one important pillar of his victory.
if he gives up this promise in the future, we can also assume he will ignore most of his promises, from wall building to distancing from allies. Then the next anti-TPP president will win upon his TPP deal.

 

[TaiShang]

The conclusion in the article is wrong. Trump is not going to stop TTP. More importantly, he will increase tariffs for imports into the US.

His only priority is increasing manufacturing jobs, because that's the easiest to achieve, especially with automation. With services, it's not as easy because the US doesn't have replacements. And building an industry supply chain is not difficult for the US.

Something to think about.
https://yourstory.com/2016/05/apple-expand-manufacturing-india-china/

Right wing is cheering in India for his policy on Muslims. Nothing to do with Apple.

For what?

TPP was already dying under Obama. No two TPP member state look eye to eye on most sensitive issues. Hence, high standard goes out the window.

What Trump would do is just let the TPP die off. He does not have to really try to crush it; it is already crushed.

About the services, how about several million US homes in which not even a single family member is employed?

In your wonder Indian world, India is so indispensable for a God-given service sector power house status and Trump can't simply afford alienating those super-intelligent, capable and efficient service providers of India? And this is while Trump can cross off China at a stroke and put some 40% taxon everything that comes from China into the US?

Would he also tax the export done by the US and other foreign companies established in China?

In that wonder Indian world, world's greatest trading nation with the deepest trade penetration can be easily sidelined and punished whereas India, a midget in trade in manufacturing and services cannot be sacrificed?

Sounds like an amazing logic.

This is despite the fact that China's trade in services (export and import) is several times larger than that of India.

If Trump really behaved like the way you described, I would ascribe it to some conspiracy - like him being fed with water bottled in India.

 

[randomradio]

Then according to your logics, Apple will not step up factory in india because they need such jobs and india's apple market is too tiny (less than 10% of China's apple market).

China has established manufacturing cooperation with many countries outside US.
And China is the biggest market of nearly all tangible goods, from smart phone to cars, from A/C to TBMs.

Building a supply chain (do they know how?) will pose 10 times more threat to india and all these kind of emerging countries with tremendous young labor and very little industrial technology.

Why will any of this impact increasing import tariffs for the US?

The Americans created your supply chains, don't forget that.

And no, it won't threaten India at all. India's domestic market is protected by tariffs up to 100% and more. In some sectors FDI is not allowed. In India, our mantra is Make in India. Whether the product you made is meant for Indians or for export is not the govt's headache. But what we desire is companies start investing and making in India. Our market can speak for itself.

That's the reason why even Chinese companies have begun investing in India.
http://www.vccircle.com/news/econom...ts-23-bn-past-3-months-against-135-bn-2000-16
In contrast to $2.3 billion investment announced in the past three months, China routed only $1.35 billion in India by way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) between April 2000 and March 2016.

And even though an exports market is desired, the govt is working towards decreasing imports first. So the trade wars that you speak of will not affect India in anyway.

Look at our trade with the US.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/india

There's nothing there for them to damage our trade. They are selling hi tech stuff to us while we are selling them services, jewellery, petroleum, organic chemicals and medicines.

The only thing they can really damage is services, which they won't and also can't because it is led by human capital, something they don't have enough of. What makes it worse is Indian companies are spread across the world. So they will just sign a contract in the US, finish development in India, and then sell it to them in the US. It's just pieces of code or simply data which can be downloaded from anywhere, you can't carry it in your hand, so they can't stop it. There's no customs, there's no shipping, nothing.

Indian exports is human capital. That's why 86% in the US and 90% in the UK of temporary work visas given goes to Indians. And successive govts haven't been able to stop this because all companies don't allow that to happen. At first he said he will scrap this visa program which is important to India. Then he reversed his opinion citing that he himself hires Indians through H-1B visas. So quid pro quo. We are scratching each other's backs.

Otoh, China has too much to lose if trade barriers are erected by the US.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

Do you see how vulnerable China is in comparison to India?
Electrical machinery and machinery, the two common components, $237B vs $25B. If Trump erects a barrier, you will lose a huge chunk of that business. And domestic American companies will easily compensate for the loss because they are already supplying their goods to China.

American companies won't mind losing their $25B business to China if they are able to tap your $237B business.

Basically Trump is pro-capitalism and pro-American companies. So giving more Indians work and giving Chinese less work is Trump's agenda because it works out for him that way. He's helping Americans companies that way. They need Indian talent because their domestic population isn't skilled enough to replace us, and they need Chinese jobs because their domestic population is skilled enough for Chinese jobs.

Please worry about yourself, not us.

This article is mostly India specific, but you can use your own judgement to figure out how it applies to China. The first four points apply a lot to China also.
http://www.business-standard.com/ar...president-means-for-india-116110900537_1.html

lol
The anti-TTP rhetoric is one important pillar of his victory.
if he gives up this promise in the future, we can also assume he will ignore most of his promises, from wall building to distancing from allies. Then the next anti-TPP president will win upon his TPP deal.

Candidate Trump is not the same as President Trump. Candidate Trump was armed with rhetoric. President Trump will be armed with govt advisors, huge difference.

He will learn a lot about current events in the next 2 months towards his presidency.

TPP was already dying under Obama. No two TPP member state look eye to eye on most sensitive issues. Hence, high standard goes out the window.

What Trump would do is just let the TPP die off. He does not have to really try to crush it; it is already crushed.

About the services, how about several million US homes in which not even a single family member is employed?

In your wonder Indian world, India is so indispensable for a God-given service sector power house status and Trump can't simply afford alienating those super-intelligent, capable and efficient service providers of India? And this is while Trump can cross off China at a stroke and put some 40% taxon everything that comes from China into the US?

Would he also tax the export done by the US and other foreign companies established in China?

In that wonder Indian world, world's greatest trading nation with the deepest trade penetration can be easily sidelined and punished whereas India, a midget in trade in manufacturing and services cannot be sacrificed?

Sounds like an amazing logic.

This is despite the fact that China's trade in services (export and import) is several times larger than that of India.

If Trump really behaved like the way you described, I would ascribe it to some conspiracy - like him being fed with water bottled in India.

Read #19.

 

[AndrewJin]

Why will any of this impact increasing import tariffs for the US?

The Americans created your supply chains, don't forget that.

And no, it won't threaten India at all. India's domestic market is protected by tariffs up to 100% and more. In some sectors FDI is not allowed. In India, our mantra is Make in India. Whether the product you made is meant for Indians or for export is not the govt's headache. But what we desire is companies start investing and making in India. Our market can speak for itself.

That's the reason why even Chinese companies have begun investing in India.
http://www.vccircle.com/news/econom...ts-23-bn-past-3-months-against-135-bn-2000-16
In contrast to $2.3 billion investment announced in the past three months, China routed only $1.35 billion in India by way of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) between April 2000 and March 2016.

And even though an exports market is desired, the govt is working towards decreasing imports first. So the trade wars that you speak of will not affect India in anyway.

Look at our trade with the US.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/south-central-asia/india

There's nothing there for them to damage our trade. They are selling hi tech stuff to us while we are selling them services, jewellery, petroleum, organic chemicals and medicines.

The only thing they can really damage is services, which they won't and also can't because it is led by human capital, something they don't have enough of. What makes it worse is Indian companies are spread across the world. So they will just sign a contract in the US, finish development in India, and then sell it to them in the US. It's just pieces of code or simply data which can be downloaded from anywhere, you can't carry it in your hand, so they can't stop it. There's no customs, there's no shipping, nothing.

Indian exports is human capital. That's why 86% in the US and 90% in the UK of temporary work visas given goes to Indians. And successive govts haven't been able to stop this because all companies don't allow that to happen. At first he said he will scrap this visa program which is important to India. Then he reversed his opinion citing that he himself hires Indians through H-1B visas. So quid pro quo. We are scratching each other's backs.

Otoh, China has too much to lose if trade barriers are erected by the US.
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china

Do you see how vulnerable China is in comparison to India?
Electrical machinery and machinery, the two common components, $237B vs $25B. If Trump erects a barrier, you will lose a huge chunk of that business. And domestic American companies will easily compensate for the loss because they are already supplying their goods to China.

American companies won't mind losing their $25B business to China if they are able to tap your $237B business.

Basically Trump is pro-capitalism and pro-American companies. So giving more Indians work and giving Chinese less work is Trump's agenda because it works out for him that way. He's helping Americans companies that way. They need Indian talent because their domestic population isn't skilled enough to replace us, and they need Chinese jobs because their domestic population is skilled enough for Chinese jobs.

Please worry about yourself, not us.

This article is mostly India specific, but you can use your own judgement to figure out how it applies to China. The first four points apply a lot to China also.
http://www.business-standard.com/ar...president-means-for-india-116110900537_1.html



Candidate Trump is not the same as President Trump. Candidate Trump was armed with rhetoric. President Trump will be armed with govt advisors, huge difference.

He will learn a lot about current events in the next 2 months towards his presidency.



Read #19.

Lmao
U r so naive.

TPP was already dying under Obama. No two TPP member state look eye to eye on most sensitive issues. Hence, high standard goes out the window.

What Trump would do is just let the TPP die off. He does not have to really try to crush it; it is already crushed.

About the services, how about several million US homes in which not even a single family member is employed?

In your wonder Indian world, India is so indispensable for a God-given service sector power house status and Trump can't simply afford alienating those super-intelligent, capable and efficient service providers of India? And this is while Trump can cross off China at a stroke and put some 40% taxon everything that comes from China into the US?

Would he also tax the export done by the US and other foreign companies established in China?

In that wonder Indian world, world's greatest trading nation with the deepest trade penetration can be easily sidelined and punished whereas India, a midget in trade in manufacturing and services cannot be sacrificed?

Sounds like an amazing logic.

This is despite the fact that China's trade in services (export and import) is several times larger than that of India.

If Trump really behaved like the way you described, I would ascribe it to some conspiracy - like him being fed with water bottled in India.

Yeah, his logistics is flawed and delusional.
Any person from a mature manufacturing powerhouse will think differently and critically.

All their genuine allies are now in panic mode.
This is the very best chance for China in terms of geopolitics.

 

[TaiShang]

They [The US] need Indian talent because their domestic population isn't skilled enough to replace us, and they need Chinese jobs because their domestic population is skilled enough for Chinese jobs.

More likely they are not unskilled enough to replace you.

Nonetheless, this sums it up all. No need to engage further.

@Dungeness , @terranMarine , @FairAndUnbiased

 

[randomradio]

Lmao
U r so naive.

And you don't have an argument.

Trump view-
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-e...-trade-china-tariffs-20160721-snap-story.html

Alternative view-
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-trade-idUSKCN0WQ0WG

He doesn't mind a trade war. It will force China into a free floating exchange rate and open up more of its economy in order to prevent a trade war. And in order to compensate for the losses the US companies will face, he will reduce taxes to 15%.

Opening up new oil wells will decrease oil prices further, which will increase economic activity in the US.