*** Total GDP Forecast with China's Ranking for 2015 ***

[Huan]

Forecast for year 2015:

1. USA: $17,968,000,000,000+
2. China: $11,385,000,000,000+
3. Japan: $4,116,000,000,000+

I notice that Japan's total nominal GDP has shrunk from $5.9 trillion to $4.116 trillion since 2011. At this rate, it will be 1/3 of China's GDP at official currency exchange rates in the year 2016.

Link: World GDP Ranking 2015 | Data and Charts - knoema.com

 

[Abacin]

Japan paid a huge price with their support of Abe government. Since Japan switched right in 2001, Japan falls like a rock. The achievement of Japanese government is judged by its ability to attract Japanese on military side and divert them from economic side. Japan is in a dead cycle. The poorer the economy, the righter Japan; The righter Japan, the poorer economy.

If one day United States turn its mind around, and choose to align with China as British does. The combination of China+United States dominates nearly every field.

 

[TaiShang]

Japan paid a huge price with their support of Abe government. Since Japan switched right in 2001, Japan falls like a rock. The achievement of Japanese government is judged by its ability to attract Japanese on military side and divert them from economic side. Japan is in a dead cycle. The poorer the economy, the righter Japan; The righter Japan, the poorer economy.

If one day United States turn its mind around, and choose to align with China as British does. The combination of China+United States dominates nearly every field.

I read somewhere, once Japan dominated Asian trade by some 35% while it is down to 12% these days.

China's share, on the other, has risen to 46% of all trade made in Asia.

That shows the huge difference in economies of scale.

What is more interesting, militarization seems not to be adding positively to economic vitality. And Abenomics cannot stop the slide in manufacturing and exports despite of Yen undervalued and QE.

 

[khakhi_chaddi]

Japan still has a per capita income 5 times more than China. It is quite possible that China may never ever reach Japans per capita income level.

 

[rcrmj]

Japan still has a per capita income 5 times more than China. It is quite possible that China may never ever reach Japans per capita income level.

it is more feasible for China to reach Japan's per capital than India to reach what we are now in 30 years time

 

[CHN Bamboo]

4 times per capita...
But it's okay,we will keep going up.Firstly we should have a good PPP(per capita).

 

[Emperor Modi]

4 times per capita...
But it's okay,we will keep going up.Firstly we should have a good PPP(per capita).

We India has the highest PPP. PPP is much accurate than GDP.
You should focus more on how to increase your PPP like how Modiji is doing.

it is more feasible for China to reach Japan's per capital than India to reach what we are now in 30 years time

No, our PPP is already 8 trillion dollar, but we have less people.

 

[IsaacNewton]

Japan's gdp in 2012 was that hugh because it was trading 80 yen to 1 dollar.

Now it is 120 yen for 1 dollar. If your currency fell 50% in value, your nominal GDP should drop 33% in value.

The long term problems for Japan is population implosion, ratio of old to young people, national debt, dead electronics industry, rising commodity price.

It is still a relevant economic power, but not the juggernaut that was king of automobile/electronics/technology it once was in the 80s, 90s.

 

[Satybharat]

Almost all major economies are shrinking........ except USA, China and India

 

[The BrOkEn HeArT]

I thought India's GDP is $2.3 trillion now. I think India will be at 6th by the mid of next year.

 

[Brainsucker]

Japan still has a per capita income 5 times more than China. It is quite possible that China may never ever reach Japans per capita income level.

That's because China has 10x more of people than Japan.
If you said per capita income level, Hongkong has higher GDP per capita income than Japan. So Hongkong is richer than Japan?

Hongkong SAR (2012) 51,108
Japan (2012) 35,635

 

[Shotgunner51]

I read somewhere, once Japan dominated Asian trade by some 35% while it is down to 12% these days.

China's share, on the other, has risen to 46% of all trade made in Asia.

That shows the huge difference in economies of scale.

What is more interesting, militarization seems not to be adding positively to economic vitality. And Abenomics cannot stop the slide in manufacturing and exports despite of Yen undervalued and QE.

Yes bro, I am also critical to Abenomics, and even more concerned about to where it's leading Japan. I wouldn't underestimate the influence of Washington neocons behind radicalization of geopolitics in Tokyo, since it's in their best interests to steer Japan into collision course with China.

However Japan is far from being irrelevant, in fact I would rate Japan as the second most powerful nation on earth, just as what CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) has done in the 2015 ranking of CNP (Comprehensive National Power). Link: CASS: Comprehensive National Power 2015

One common public myth is about GDP's dominance in national power, but what is GDP? It's one measure of vibrance of economic activities within the geographical borders. Since Plaza Accord in 1985 Japan has been massively investing overseas, making it the largest creditor nation on earth, by now 23 years in a row. While having a "low GDP", huge and ever-expanding international assets continue to serve national interests of Japan. Link: Japan net external assets hit record $3 trln as top creditor nation| Reuters

Another myth is "high government-debt", well I might as well quote a link: The Myth That Japan Is Broke: The World’s Largest “Debtor” Is Now the World’s Largest Creditor

Their financial prowess came from tech reserves, industrial capabilities, I suppose their global leadership in say electronics, semiconductor, nuclear science, rockets, tools, optics, E&M machines, robotics, materials science, heavy industries, etc., are obvious.

Strategic reserves, we may dig deeper and see. Imperial Japan, so was Nazi Germany, were destined to loose from day one, I don't think people make the same mistake twice.​

As I have described in another thread, the international "food chain" is like a banker (with armed guards, of course) on the top reaping the ultimate fruits, industrial-capitalists in the second league, resources-rich lucky ones in the third, and then the rest of miserable. Japan is at the top within the second league, along with say Germany. It's time to move beyond GDP myth, it isn't even fair to compare a continental-sized ancient civilization to an archipelago-sized country, let' be pragmatic to analyze facts, and move on to catching up with Japan in the real terms.

 

[Beidou2020]

I have said many times that Japan is irrelevant.

It's a dead economy and its people have lost its motivation.

As the years go by, China will eat Japan alive as the advantage shifts so far towards China that Japan will have the equivalent power of a medium size Chinese province.

 

[Abacin]

Japan still has a per capita income 5 times more than China. It is quite possible that China may never ever reach Japans per capita income level.

You are retarded. In 2015, less than 4 times (Japan $32,481; China $8,280). For some east coastal provinces, only 2 times. The life of east coastal provinces is actually better than Japan, with many of them having big houses and large cars, which is luxurious for most Japanese. Our eyes are only on United States.

East Coast of China kept to be richest in East Asia. In about 10-20 years, East Coast of China will be definitely richer than Japan, which is historical normal.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

You are retarded. In 2015, less than 4 times (Japan $32,481; China $8,280). For some east coastal provinces, only 2 times. The life of east coastal provinces is actually better than Japan, with many of them having big houses and large cars, which is luxurious for most Japanese. Our eyes are only on United States.

East Coast of China kept to be richest in East Asia. In about 10-20 years, East Coast of China will be definitely richer than Japan, which is historical normal.

Can people in big cities live in big house..?
It's right for town and small cities :p