ToI: China admits it's feeling pressure from India in manufacturing sector?

[gslv mk3]

Pakistan is not the one whose manufacturing sector is "threatening China".

You're manufacturing sector can't even compete with Bangladesh. So stop throwing stones while living in a glass house.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Completely incorrect!

This is using the current nominal figures and assumes that Indian currency won't appreciate as India gets richer.

I would say that India would get to China's current level around 2035-2040.

Really. So it is completely incorrect according to you.

The truth is the gap between the two nations get even wider if one were to calculate by using REAL GDP growth rate where value of the goods and services are adjusted for inflation.

Anyway it is well known fact among international economists that India GDP calculation is inaccurate and is still could not compliance to 1993 SNA e.g. India adopt its own WPI standard instead conforming of the global international CPI standard.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Admin can delete such bull crap threads.

 

[somebozo]

but the cover says CITY OF LA, you didn't notice it before you decided to post this random image?

CITY of LA..Made in INDIA..
Cover is installed in City if LA.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

The latest number and reports for India by Bloomberg shows that the GDP number for 2016 is shrinking e.g. the latest index of industrial production just released by the Indian Government confirmed it.

Eleven reasons why India's 7.4% GDP growth is simply not believable
Dec 1, 2015 13:54 IST

By Vivek Kaul

Data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation shows that India’s gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the size of the economy, grew by 7.4% during the period between July to September 2015. These are fantastic numbers in a world where real economic growth is slowing down. Even China is finding it tough to grow at rates that it did in the past.

So what is driving India’s economy? Manufacturing grew by a 9.3%. Trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting grew by 10.6%. And financial, insurance, real estate and professional services grew by 9.7%. These three segments which formed 62.6% of the total economy between July to September 2014, helped the economy grow by 7.4%. Agricultural, forestry and fishing grew by just 2.2%.

The question is how believable is this growth of 7.4%? The short answer is—not very. It is worth mentioning here that GDP is ultimately a theoretical construct. Most real economic numbers suggest otherwise.

Let’s take a look at them one by one.

1) Exports have been falling eleven months in a row. In fact, between April and October 2015, exports have fallen by 17.6% to $154.29 billion, in comparison to the same period last year. Between April and October 2014, the exports had stood at $187.29 billion. A greater than 7% economic growth rate with falling exports is a little difficult to believe.

2) Corporate profitability continues to remain subdued. As a recent news-report in the Business Standard points out regarding the profitability for the period July to September 2015: “It was another muted quarter for India Inc, with aggregate profit growth at both the operating and net level growing at only under one per cent over a year-ago period. The sample is of 2,300 companies…The numbers are worse for the benchmark indices such as the Nifty, where operating and net profit are down between three-five per cent over the year-ago quarter, with aggregate numbers below expectations.”

3) Passenger vehicles sales, another good measure of economic recovery, have been subdued through most of this financial year, though there has been some recovery in October 2015, which doesn’t come under the July to September 2015 period, for which the economic growth number has been reported. Between September 2015 and September 2014, passenger vehicles sales went up by only 3.85%.

4) Motorcycle sales, a very good economic indicator in the Indian context, have fallen for most of the financial year, only to have recovered a little in October due to festival season sales. It remains to be seen whether the sales can be sustained for November 2015. Data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) points out that motorcycle sales during the first six months of the year (April to September 2015) were down by 4.06% to 5.36 million units, in comparison to the same period last year.

5) Tractor sales have been falling for thirteen months in a row. Data from the Tractor Manufacturers Association shows that sales have fallen by 20% during the first six months of this financial year (i.e. April to September 2015). This is a clear example of weak agricultural growth.

6) The loan growth of banks continues to remain subdued. The sectoral deployment of credit data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that bank loans grew by 8.4% between September 2014 and September 2015. In fact, they grew by an even slower 8.1% between October 2014 and October 2015.

7) Along with this, the bad loans of banks continue to pile up. As a recent report in The Indian Express points out: “Already burdened by bad loans, 37 banks, led by public sector ones, have reported a 26.8 per cent rise in non-performing assets (NPAs) over the 12-month period ending September this year.”

The overall non-performing assets of banks as of September 2015 stood at Rs 3,36,685 crore. This was an increase of Rs 71,000 crore, according to numbers put together by credit rating firm CARE.

8) The number of stalled industrial projects went up during the period July to September 2015. As a recent research note by Morgan Stanley points out: “The stock of stalled projects climbed in the September quarter, while existing capacity is being underutilized. This has, not surprisingly, lowered interest in greenfield investments, with industrial credit loan growth stagnating in single-digits.” The bulk of the stalled projects belong to the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Further, there is a good anecdotal evidence to suggest that small and medium enterprises, a major source of job growth, continue to struggle.

9) The Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan recently pointed out that factories were running 30% below capacity as of now. A research report by DBS points out that the capacity utilisation rate was at 80% in 2011-2012. This suggests a significant slack in the economy. How is manufacturing then growing by 9%, as suggested by the data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation?

10) The real estate sector, a major employer of people, continues to be in the doldrums, with new launches coming down and the number of unsold homes going up.

11) Further, for two years in a row India has had a deficient monsoon. In its end of season report, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the nation’s weather forecaster, stated that “rainfall over the country as a whole was 86% of its long period average (LPA). Thus years 2014 & 2015 was the fourth case of two consecutive all India deficient monsoon years during the last 115 years.”

IMD uses rainfall data for the last 50 years to come up with the long period average. If the rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the 50 year average, then it is categorised as normal. If it is between 90% and 96% of the 50 year average is categorised as below-normal. And anything below 90% is categorised as deficient.

If something has happened only four times in 115 years, there is clearly reason to worry, given that nearly half of India’s population is dependent on agriculture. Also, this has clearly slowed down consumer demand in much of rural India.

On the positive side a lot has been written on the 36% jump in indirect tax collections. This has been offered as an example of a revival in economic activity. Nevertheless, much of this huge jump has come from the government increasing the excise duty on petrol and diesel and capturing much of the fall in oil prices. Excise duty collections have jumped by 68.6% during the course of this financial year.

In fact as a recent ministry of finance press release points out: “These collections reflect in part increase due to additional measures taken by the Government from time to time, including the excise increases on diesel and petrol, the increase in clean energy cess, the withdrawal of exemptions for motor vehicles, capital goods and consumer durables, and from June 2015, the increase in Service Tax rates from 12.36% to 14%. However, stripped of all these additional measures, indirect tax collections increased by 11.6% during April-October 2015 as compared to April-October 2014.”

As the Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian recently said in an interview: “Even if you take away all the new things, new taxes have been added, that number[indirect taxes number] is growing at a robust about 11.5 -12% and if that number is right, that means that the underlined economy is recovering.”

There are few other data points on the positive side. The commercial vehicle sales have been robust during the first six months of the financial year. At the same time consumption of petroleum products has also gone up by 8.5% between April and September 2015.

While the underlying economy might be recovering, it is very difficult to believe that it is growing at 7.4%. In fact, Subramanian and Rajan suggested the same in a very roundabout sort of way in a recent joint interview to a television channel.

To conclude, once you take all the factors I have listed above into account, the economic growth (or GDP growth) number of 7.4%, doesn’t look believable.

(Vivek Kaul is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. He tweets @kaul_vivek)

 

[Jlaw]

U have noticed the price of 4 star hotels in Shanghai, very very affordable....
But let me tell you, in Lijiang, an ancient town in Yunnan, there are 2000+ hotels....
And their standard room costs $10-30 per night....

This one，a huge family room on the top of a boutique guesthouse, cost $40...
View attachment 336147View attachment 336148View attachment 336146

I really don't know how they calculate local tourism-related PPP.....
A uniform national standard across the entire country?

Lucky day for you as I can answer you with your hotel analogy:

A typical hotel in Lijiang $10-30$ night is very affordable and the room is clean and fit for prince.

A typical hotel say in New Delhi that cost $10-30 night is not fit for human to live in.

That is PPP to them.

 

[AndrewJin]

Lucky day for you as I can answer you with your hotel analogy:

A typical hotel in Lijiang $10-30$ night is very affordable and the room is clean and fit for prince.

A typical hotel say in New Delhi that cost $10-30 night is not fit for human to live in.

That is PPP to them.

Talk about PPP!

$26 FAMILY room in side Lijiang ancient town, China's most popular ancient town (not one of), also a UNESCO world heritage side.
Busy summer tourist season, 2015

 

[Jlaw]

The latest number and reports for India by Bloomberg shows that the GDP number for 2016 is shrinking e.g. the latest index of industrial production just released by the Indian Government confirmed it.

Eleven reasons why India's 7.4% GDP growth is simply not believable
Dec 1, 2015 13:54 IST

By Vivek Kaul

Data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation shows that India’s gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the size of the economy, grew by 7.4% during the period between July to September 2015. These are fantastic numbers in a world where real economic growth is slowing down. Even China is finding it tough to grow at rates that it did in the past.

So what is driving India’s economy? Manufacturing grew by a 9.3%. Trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting grew by 10.6%. And financial, insurance, real estate and professional services grew by 9.7%. These three segments which formed 62.6% of the total economy between July to September 2014, helped the economy grow by 7.4%. Agricultural, forestry and fishing grew by just 2.2%.

The question is how believable is this growth of 7.4%? The short answer is—not very. It is worth mentioning here that GDP is ultimately a theoretical construct. Most real economic numbers suggest otherwise.

Let’s take a look at them one by one.

1) Exports have been falling eleven months in a row. In fact, between April and October 2015, exports have fallen by 17.6% to $154.29 billion, in comparison to the same period last year. Between April and October 2014, the exports had stood at $187.29 billion. A greater than 7% economic growth rate with falling exports is a little difficult to believe.

2) Corporate profitability continues to remain subdued. As a recent news-report in the Business Standard points out regarding the profitability for the period July to September 2015: “It was another muted quarter for India Inc, with aggregate profit growth at both the operating and net level growing at only under one per cent over a year-ago period. The sample is of 2,300 companies…The numbers are worse for the benchmark indices such as the Nifty, where operating and net profit are down between three-five per cent over the year-ago quarter, with aggregate numbers below expectations.”

3) Passenger vehicles sales, another good measure of economic recovery, have been subdued through most of this financial year, though there has been some recovery in October 2015, which doesn’t come under the July to September 2015 period, for which the economic growth number has been reported. Between September 2015 and September 2014, passenger vehicles sales went up by only 3.85%.

4) Motorcycle sales, a very good economic indicator in the Indian context, have fallen for most of the financial year, only to have recovered a little in October due to festival season sales. It remains to be seen whether the sales can be sustained for November 2015. Data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) points out that motorcycle sales during the first six months of the year (April to September 2015) were down by 4.06% to 5.36 million units, in comparison to the same period last year.

5) Tractor sales have been falling for thirteen months in a row. Data from the Tractor Manufacturers Association shows that sales have fallen by 20% during the first six months of this financial year (i.e. April to September 2015). This is a clear example of weak agricultural growth.

6) The loan growth of banks continues to remain subdued. The sectoral deployment of credit data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that bank loans grew by 8.4% between September 2014 and September 2015. In fact, they grew by an even slower 8.1% between October 2014 and October 2015.

7) Along with this, the bad loans of banks continue to pile up. As a recent report in The Indian Express points out: “Already burdened by bad loans, 37 banks, led by public sector ones, have reported a 26.8 per cent rise in non-performing assets (NPAs) over the 12-month period ending September this year.”

The overall non-performing assets of banks as of September 2015 stood at Rs 3,36,685 crore. This was an increase of Rs 71,000 crore, according to numbers put together by credit rating firm CARE.

8) The number of stalled industrial projects went up during the period July to September 2015. As a recent research note by Morgan Stanley points out: “The stock of stalled projects climbed in the September quarter, while existing capacity is being underutilized. This has, not surprisingly, lowered interest in greenfield investments, with industrial credit loan growth stagnating in single-digits.” The bulk of the stalled projects belong to the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Further, there is a good anecdotal evidence to suggest that small and medium enterprises, a major source of job growth, continue to struggle.

9) The Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan recently pointed out that factories were running 30% below capacity as of now. A research report by DBS points out that the capacity utilisation rate was at 80% in 2011-2012. This suggests a significant slack in the economy. How is manufacturing then growing by 9%, as suggested by the data released by the ministry of statistics and programme implementation?

10) The real estate sector, a major employer of people, continues to be in the doldrums, with new launches coming down and the number of unsold homes going up.

11) Further, for two years in a row India has had a deficient monsoon. In its end of season report, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the nation’s weather forecaster, stated that “rainfall over the country as a whole was 86% of its long period average (LPA). Thus years 2014 & 2015 was the fourth case of two consecutive all India deficient monsoon years during the last 115 years.”

IMD uses rainfall data for the last 50 years to come up with the long period average. If the rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the 50 year average, then it is categorised as normal. If it is between 90% and 96% of the 50 year average is categorised as below-normal. And anything below 90% is categorised as deficient.

If something has happened only four times in 115 years, there is clearly reason to worry, given that nearly half of India’s population is dependent on agriculture. Also, this has clearly slowed down consumer demand in much of rural India.

On the positive side a lot has been written on the 36% jump in indirect tax collections. This has been offered as an example of a revival in economic activity. Nevertheless, much of this huge jump has come from the government increasing the excise duty on petrol and diesel and capturing much of the fall in oil prices. Excise duty collections have jumped by 68.6% during the course of this financial year.

In fact as a recent ministry of finance press release points out: “These collections reflect in part increase due to additional measures taken by the Government from time to time, including the excise increases on diesel and petrol, the increase in clean energy cess, the withdrawal of exemptions for motor vehicles, capital goods and consumer durables, and from June 2015, the increase in Service Tax rates from 12.36% to 14%. However, stripped of all these additional measures, indirect tax collections increased by 11.6% during April-October 2015 as compared to April-October 2014.”

As the Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian recently said in an interview: “Even if you take away all the new things, new taxes have been added, that number[indirect taxes number] is growing at a robust about 11.5 -12% and if that number is right, that means that the underlined economy is recovering.”

There are few other data points on the positive side. The commercial vehicle sales have been robust during the first six months of the financial year. At the same time consumption of petroleum products has also gone up by 8.5% between April and September 2015.

While the underlying economy might be recovering, it is very difficult to believe that it is growing at 7.4%. In fact, Subramanian and Rajan suggested the same in a very roundabout sort of way in a recent joint interview to a television channel.

To conclude, once you take all the factors I have listed above into account, the economic growth (or GDP growth) number of 7.4%, doesn’t look believable.

(Vivek Kaul is the author of the Easy Money trilogy. He tweets @kaul_vivek)

It doesn't need to make sense in india as long as Modi say they are growing at 7.6% than they are.

Talk about PPP!

$26 FAMILY room in side Lijiang ancient town, China's most popular ancient town (not one of), also a UNESCO world heritage side.
Busy summer tourist season, 2015
View attachment 336218 View attachment 336219 View attachment 336221 View attachment 336222 View attachment 336220

not bad. Lijiang could be one of my destination for China trip

 

[Rajaraja Chola]

Actually it will be true. That's how world economy has evolved. Once all the products were made in Europe or NA. After that the production moved to Japan. After Japan developed and its cost of manufacturing increased, it moved to Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore.

The next natural destination is India and Vietnam after the labour costs rises in China. After India it will be some country.
But I dont think China has to sit up, for India has lot of catching in Infrastructure building and taxation laws.

 

[AndrewJin]

It doesn't need to make sense in india as long as Modi say they are growing at 7.6% than they are.



not bad. Lijiang could be one of my destination for China trip

Shaxi Town....People say she will become the next Lijiang
In Jianchuan County of Yunnan Province, Southwest China

120yuan family room.....$18
We stayed there for 3 nights!
Damn amazing village, so many places to see around the village, grassland, field, mountains, springs......
Damn, 2 times in 3 years...

Look at their yard!
View from my room

 

[Three_Kingdoms]

India is a big mess
The so called "Silicon Valley of India" - Bangalore is on fire over the Court ruling of sharing of some basic facilities like water supply with Tamil Nadu
Think about that again and again if you want to challenge China's manufacturing prowess

Why water war has broken out in India's Silicon Valley
13 September 2016

I
Buses with Tamil Nadu number plates have been attacked in Bangalore
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37346570


Why two Indian states have started rioting over water
Disorder comes after Supreme Court orders state to release 12,000 cubic feet per second of water to its neighbour
13 September 2016

At least one person has died and another has been wounded in riots over water in India.

Protesters set fire to cars and buses and pelted people with stones in the Indian city of Bangalore in Karnataka state, senior police officer L. Chandrashekar said.

The unrest was over an Indian Supreme Court decision to force the state to release 12,000 cubic feet of water per second per day from its dams on the Cauvery river to the neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu until 20 September.

The decision has led to outrage among people in the technology hub - dubbed the country's answer to Silicon Valley - as the state said it does not have enough water for farmers to irrigate their land as it is.

More reporting from this link:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-bangalore-karnataka-tamil-nadu-a7247226.html

A report from PDF posting:

A vehicle in flames after being torched by pro-Kannada activists. PTI

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/bengalur...ures-centres-assistance.449067/#ixzz4Komr7McE

 

[AndrewJin]

India is a big mess
The so called "Silicon Valley of India" - Bangalore is on fire over the Court ruling of sharing of some basic facilities like water supply with Tamil Nadu
Think about that again and again if you want to challenge China's manufacturing prowess

Why water war has broken out in India's Silicon Valley
13 September 2016

I
Buses with Tamil Nadu number plates have been attacked in Bangalore
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37346570


Why two Indian states have started rioting over water
Disorder comes after Supreme Court orders state to release 12,000 cubic feet per second of water to its neighbour
13 September 2016

At least one person has died and another has been wounded in riots over water in India.

Protesters set fire to cars and buses and pelted people with stones in the Indian city of Bangalore in Karnataka state, senior police officer L. Chandrashekar said.

The unrest was over an Indian Supreme Court decision to force the state to release 12,000 cubic feet of water per second per day from its dams on the Cauvery river to the neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu until 20 September.

The decision has led to outrage among people in the technology hub - dubbed the country's answer to Silicon Valley - as the state said it does not have enough water for farmers to irrigate their land as it is.

More reporting from this link:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-bangalore-karnataka-tamil-nadu-a7247226.html

A report from PDF posting:

A vehicle in flames after being torched by pro-Kannada activists. PTI

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/bengalur...ures-centres-assistance.449067/#ixzz4Komr7McE

no sufficient water?
Watch this, where are water and irritation projects???

 

[Kraitcorp]

I yet have to see any Indian product in North America

Here's another Indian product in the USA

CONTINENTAL GT

CLASSIC DESERT STORM

CLASSIC CHROME

CLASSIC BATTLE GREEN

CLASSIC 500

BULLET 500 EFI

https://royalenfield.com/usa/

Now if you are lucky you can find at-least one Pakistani made product in the USA.

 

[xyxmt]

Here's another Indian product in the USA

CONTINENTAL GT

CLASSIC DESERT STORM

CLASSIC CHROME

CLASSIC BATTLE GREEN

CLASSIC 500

BULLET 500 EFI

https://royalenfield.com/usa/

Now if you are lucky you can find at-least one Pakistani made product in the USA.

this post was in China feeling the heat of Indian manufacturing powers...you just proved it china must feeling the heat...or do you just want to compare it with Pakistani, who is exporting fighter jets

 

[nang2]

Manufacturing sector is always under pressure, external or internal. But manufacturing isn't just about the labor cost. The whole ecosystem of supply chain is also very important. That makes some move towards inland or overseas a bit difficult.