To Understand their game in Baluchistan

[maximuswarrior]

Pakistan absolute GDP was never greater than India. Before mid-1990s Pakistan had a greater per captia GDP than India.
Pakistani economy is in the doldrums since 1990. The infusion of US aid after 9/11 saved things temporarily.



Honestly the Israelis won't care if given security assurances. Our other bastard child Arab royals might freak out

LOL you keep fantasizing buddy. It is not a sin to fantasize.

 

[Clutch]

Pakistan absolute GDP was never greater than India. Before mid-1990s Pakistan had a greater per captia GDP than India.
Pakistani economy is in the doldrums since 1990. The infusion of US aid after 9/11 saved things temporarily.

Things go up and down. It will be naive to assume that Pakistan's economy is destined to be in the doldrums till perpetuity.

 

[nahtanbob]

Things go up and down. It will be naive to assume that Pakistan's economy is destined to be in the doldrums till perpetuity.

I see a pattern.

During the cold war Pakistan gets more aid on per captia basis compared to neighboring India. The economy outperforms India. Cold war ends. Indian economy booms due to software sector. Pakistan struggles to keep up.

The pattern has not been broken

 

[Clutch]

I see a pattern.

During the cold war Pakistan gets more aid on per captia basis compared to neighboring India. The economy outperforms India. Cold war ends. Indian economy booms due to software sector. Pakistan struggles to keep up.

The pattern has not been broken

That is at most a double cycle pattern ... Hardly enough historical data to extrapolate with any sort of confidence.

 

[Nancy]

Just a laughing discussion. Are we trying to compare a bankrupt state with world #5 economy? Good laughing although.

 

[nahtanbob]

That is at most a double cycle pattern ... Hardly enough historical data to extrapolate with any sort of confidence.

Both countries are 72 years independent. that is plenty of data

 

[Clutch]

Both countries are 72 years independent. that is plenty of data

I am not talking about entire history. Just the Aid-Bust cycle you gave. That is just two cycles of that pattern. Pakistan previous cycles of economic growth were longer.

 

[nahtanbob]

I am not talking about entire history. Just the Aid-Bust cycle you gave. That is just two cycles of that pattern. Pakistan previous cycles of economic growth were longer.

Tell me the time intervals when Pakistan was without American aid

 

[Clutch]

Tell me the time intervals when Pakistan was without American aid

I would argue that american aid has been AIDS for pakistan...

Can Pakistan survive without US aid?
Murtaza HaiderFebruary 15, 2012
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Several policy-makers, politicians, and development professionals in the west believe that the economic survival of Pakistan rests on handouts from the United States. Often American legislators ridicule Pakistan for willingly accepting American dollars in charity, but not delivering on American demands in return.

The Westerners are not alone in believing that Pakistan’s survival rests on handouts from the US. While speaking on Canadian TV earlier this week, Raheel Raza, a Canadian of Pakistani origin, argued the same. “Ever since the inception of Pakistan the United States has given Pakistan aid without which it cannot survive,” said Ms. Raza.

The US economic and military assistance to Pakistan indeed has a long history stretched over decades during which several American governments have poured billions of dollars into Pakistan. The question, however, is to determine first why Americans aided Pakistan and second what was the money intended for. And even more importantly, one should determine if indeed Pakistan’s economic survival rests on American aid.

The British newspaper Guardian maintains an active database documenting six decades of American aid to Pakistan. The data is compiled by Wren Elhai of the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC. The database reveals that since 1948 the US assistance to Pakistan has largely been for civilian purposes. Of the $61.7 billion in total assistance (in constant 2009 dollars) provided to Pakistan between 1948 and 2010, $40.4 billion were provided for economic assistance and $21.3 billion in military assistance. The economic assistance to Pakistan peaked in the early 60s when in excess of $2 billion annually were provided to Pakistan.

ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD
Title: US Aid to Pakistan, 1948-2010, (millions, constant 2009 US$)

-Source: Guardian.


Since 1982, the United States has provided $17 billion in military assistance compared to $13.5 billion in economic assistance. This has largely been a result of covert and overt American military operations in Afghanistan that began in late 70s. And while there has been a slowdown in economic and military assistance between 1992 and 2001, the US revived its economic and military assistance to Pakistan after 9/11. In fact, since 2002 the US military assistance to Pakistan at $13billion dollars is two-times the economic assistance it provided to Pakistan. The dramatic increase in military assistance to Pakistan in the recent past has contributed to the weakening of democratic and civilian institutions in Pakistan, while it has helped strengthen military’s grip on the socio-political spheres in Pakistan.

One cannot consider military assistance as a favour to Pakistanis. In fact, the US military assistance has been instrumental in reinforcing Pakistani armed forces against the civilian governments. The American military and economic assistance offered to General Zia in early 80s and later to General Musharraf since 2002 are examples of how American funds have strengthened military dictators against civilian setups in Pakistan. Notice in the above graph how the US assistance has largely been absent in the 1990s when parliamentary democracy prevailed in Pakistan.

In 2010, the US economic assistance to Pakistan equalled $1.8 billion. While the amount is indeed large, however on a per capita basis, this translates into a mere $10.3 for the 180-million Pakistanis. Should we believe that Pakistan’s survival has rested on a mere $10.3 per person in civilian assistance from the United States?

Some fact-checking is indeed in order. Pakistan is a $175 billion economy. Since 2002, the US has provided on average $825 million annually in economic assistance to Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistani expatriates have remitted on average $1 billion each month in 2011, making remittances an order of magnitude higher than what the US has been providing to Pakistan. I would argue that Pakistan’s economy owes much more to what the expatriates contribute than what comes in charity from the United States.

While I remain grateful to American taxpayers who have contributed billions of dollars to Pakistan, for instance, American help with the rescue and relief efforts after the floods in 2011 is indeed commendable, I must also point out that the American wars in the region have played havoc with Pakistan’s economic and social infrastructure. According to the Government of Pakistan, the direct and indirect costs from Nato’s war in Afghanistan, which began on October 07, 2001, has reached over $68 billion. These economic losses are an order of magnitude higher than what the US has offered in economic and military assistance to Pakistan. And who to account for the 36,000-plus Pakistanis who have perished as a result of the Nato' war efforts in the region. A fair compensation would require the US to engage the United Nations to verify Pakistan’s claims and then reimburse Pakistan in full for proven claims.

-Source: Pakistan Economic Survey: 2010-11.


* The 2010-11 figures are estimated from 8 months of data.

The nature of development aid business is such that large sums of donated money in fact return to the donor country in the form of contractual payments to consultants and manufacturers. I recall listening to the former World Bank president James Wolfensohn in 2004 at the 16th Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics in Washington DC where he offered his candid views about how development aid was misspent by donors. In 2003-04 development aid was estimated at $58 billion of which $14 billion were pocketed by the consultants alone.

The billions of dollars in US military assistance to Pakistan are no different which in fact help sustain the defense economy in the US. Pakistan ends up buying US-made weapons and fighter jets from the very military assistance it receives from the US, and money it borrows from international lenders.

I also recall listening to Hans von Sponeck, the former head of UN operations in Iraq who resigned in February 2000 to protest against UN sanctions. He explained in an interview in Islamabad how aid agencies prefer spending aid money on brick and mortar, and not on developing human capital. Furthermore, aid funds are often abused because of cost overruns. Consider the mismanaged construction of the waste water treatment plant in Fallujah, Iraq. An audit by the US Special Inspector General revealed that the plant was to be built for $35 million to serve a population of 100,000. Years later, the partially built plant served only 38,400 people after American contractors had spent over $108 million. Latest estimates suggest that the waste treatment plant would consume another $87 million before it will be completed in 2014.

In the proposed budget for 2013, the Obama administration has set aside $2.4 billion in spending related to Pakistan. $800 million out of the $2.4 billion are earmarked for counter intelligence in KP and Fata and for other security operations. $200 million have been earmarked for discretionary spending by the US diplomatic missions in Pakistan. While it appears that huge sums of money will again flow to Pakistan, the reality is that often the planned funds never reach Pakistan. Consider the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill (The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act, 2009) that set aside a total of $7.5 billion in assistance to Pakistan spread over five years. The disbursement under the bill was to begin in 2010. However, the funds have not yet been appropriated. At the same time, the US legislators continue to chastise Pakistan for taking US funds (hitherto not provided) but not delivering in return!

Earlier this week, Pakistan’s parliament unanimously passed a resolutioncondemning the US Congress for conducting hearings about the insurgency in Balochistan. The resolution stated: “the house rigorously condemns and does not accept the hearing by the US congress and considers any such attempt an open intervention in state’s sovereignty and its internal affairs.” Parliamentarians of all political complexions, who were deeply incensed by the US intervention in Pakistan’s domestic affairs, set aside their differences in passing the resolution. I believe that Pakistan’s Parliament should now pass another resolution stating that it will not receive any additional charity from the United States. Knowing that there have always been strings attached to the funds that came from the US, the Parliamentarians should therefore consider US economic and military assistance to be a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty.

Refusing aid and other assistance is a prerequisite for Pakistan’s economic recovery. The billions of dollars in aid have distorted markets in Pakistan and have subsidised the civil and military elite. Pakistan’s foremost economists, such as S. Akbar Zaidi and others at the Planning Commission in Islamabad, have argued for a secession of aid as a precondition for restructuring Pakistan’s economy to make it self-sufficient over time.

 

[nahtanbob]

I would argue that american aid has been AIDS for pakistan...

that is a different argument. when the gravy train kept coming the economy did better. at least in the short run

LOL you keep fantasizing buddy. It is not a sin to fantasize.

13 IMF bailouts are fantasies of mine

 

[SecularNationalist]

pakistan does not control afghanistan now. it won't control afghanistan a decade from now
you blew your chances in the late 1990s

Ok then who is controlling most parts of Afghanistan these days? Americans and their puppet infant afghan forces?
It does not matter whether you swallow that bitter pill or not,the fact is despite being a very important world power you cannot impose your will in this region.We are a regional power and we control this region.We invite you to again come in this region with all your advanced military tech and high budgeted army and i am sure again you will bite the dust.
The funny thing is even after accepting your defeat and withdrawing all your forces from afghanistan you are still dreaming about unfettered access to afghanistan

13 IMF bailouts are fantasies of mine

We were always like this and every time the western world has failed a impose us or pressurize us.Every time there is a invisible hand which helps us.
And you for sure earned those 19 red ratings with all your high quality posts on this forum.