To stabilize Pakistan, U.S. needs to rethink India policy

[fatman17]

To stabilize Pakistan, U.S. needs to rethink India policy
Kaveh L. Afrasiabi
Friday, January 4, 2008

Pakistan's political crisis, triggered by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the ensuing violence sweeping the country, is a worrisome development in South Asia and beyond. Without a doubt, Pakistan's political decay will affect its neighbors, including Afghanistan, just as Pakistan itself for decades has been impacted by conflict spilling over from beyond its (contested) borders.
Indeed, a good deal of Pakistan's turmoil can be traced to the regional sources of instability that have acted as the breeding ground for the military government that has shaped Pakistan since the country's independence in 1947.
From the Indo-Pakistan conflict, which has led to a nuclear arms race, to the internationalized conflict in Afghanistan, to the armed uprising in the disputed territory of Kashmir, Pakistan is today ensconced in a fragile political environment that will likely remain that way for a generation. This unstable political situation will be compounded by numerous internal conflicts, such as ethnic separatism in Baluchistan and Sindh provinces and the recent uprising in the Federally Administrated Tribal Area (FATA) bordering Afghanistan, each of them requiring a distinct political solution.
With Bhutto's assassination, it will be more difficult for Pakistan to transition to a democratic government. More modest domestic political gains from its elections, now postponed until February, should be expected. Certainly, Pakistan's future hinges on whether control of the country will remain with the army or transition back to a civilian government.
Pakistani leader Gen. Pervez Musharraf is here to stay and the United States now needs to rethink its policy toward Pakistan. A clue to his staying power is his pragmatic and delicate handling of foreign policy, particularly with respect to the strategic development of the U.S.-India nuclear pact, widely interpreted in Pakistan as the United States' intention to insure that Pakistan's arch-enemy, India, is the leading power in South Asia.
Under Musharraf, Pakistan has steered an independent foreign policy while maintaining an alliance with the United States, by strengthening ties with Russia, China, Iran and other regional players weary of the "American agenda." Case in point: The United States has not welcomed any warming of tied between Iran and Pakistan, and Musharraf has defied the United States' call to shelve the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, a proposed $7 billion pipeline to deliver natural gas from Iran to India and Pakistan.
Bhutto went out of her way to show herself aligned with Bush's war on terrorism. Bhutto never criticized U.S. policy that seemed to elevate India in the region, thus many in the Pakistani military elite saw her in a negative light.
So now, how does the United States harmonize regional security imperatives with democratic politics in Pakistan? Should these imperatives be recast in favor of a new Pakistan policy that takes into consideration Pakistan's national security worries, which only partially coincide with those of the United States and thus limit full democratization of Pakistan?
Hectoring Pakistan's civil-military elite about democracy has clearly backfired. Bhutto's assassination has tipped the scales in favor of the ruling politico-military elite focused on national (security) interests. The latter's overriding concern now is to have some breathing space domestically.
It would be a major U.S. foreign policy blunder to indulge Musharraf in bashing Bhutto's internal detractors. The United States needs to seriously consider recasting its India policy in favor of a more balanced approach, while steering clear of Pakistan's domestic politics. Otherwise, the United States risks further alienation of Pakistan's political elite.

 

[solid snake]

Very accurate analysis. The more pro India the US becomes, the more pro China/Russia Pakistan will become and the US will lose a key ally in the region.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The author must honestly look at the political instability and the repeated rise of the military in government in Paksitan a bit more honestly.

How can the ills of Pakistan be attributed to India?

China is a bigger and more dangerous an adversary of India. Should India lament that all the ills of India are attributable to China. Fertile imagery can always be spun to prove that China is the source of all the problems of India, socially, militarily, diplomatically, economically and everything under the sun.

One must have the courage and the moral spine to call a spade a spade.

Pakistan first problem is that it has not been able to project her identity to its people. Urdu and Religion alone cannot be the symbol of an identity. The fact that Pakistanis (as in this forum indicated by a thread) are enthralled by the fact that they are Arabs indicates that being Arabs is the foremost acme of nationality! There was even one post which indicated that Arab scholars were the last word. If Arabs are the mentors and icons, then quo vadis the Pakistani identity? This undercurrent of identity identification is what upset the Bengalis ( again see the thread to indicate East of Indus is alien culture and genes) and they decided to go their own way. That is fine. But what did it encourage? Sub nationalism. This took shape in insurgencies and adding fuel to the fire, Zia uncorked the evil genie out of the bottle and now it has become difficult to put the genie back! The result is the troubles that grips Pakistan today!

Feudalism too has its role to play. In today's world all want a fair and level playing field. One cannot have masters and serfs. It only produces discontent and it slowly gathers momentum. It takes the shape of sub nationalism since that becomes a fair game instead of appearing to be a class struggle! Class struggle can be suppressed, but sub nationalism has it own lustre and sentimental pull!

US has its own priorities.

To her, the rise of China is a very serious threat and therefore she has to crank in certain facets to help her to contain this threat.

Her interest in CAR is not just for oil. It bring her closer to Xinjiang and leaning on there will distract China from its goal of being a superpower (as it will have to divert resources) as also from being Taiwan centric!

Pakistan will play out the role that the US wants since it will bankroll Pakistan as also please the military with weapons and their like.

Pakistan can be kept within the US ambit, but China cannot be kept in the bag!

These are but some early comments.

 

[IceCold]

US moving more and more towards india will only help us in the future. Though it will have some impacts on pakistan but they will be temporary, all we need is a strong relationship with key players in asia. We already have it with china and relationship with russia is also warming up. Though it will take some time to develop into a more mature strategic alliance, but finally we will be out of US influence for good. US has her own interest in the name of countering china and for that it will do anything bringing india to that level, we need to rethink and distant ourselves from the western nexus.

 

[jin]

IC,

This circle should be our ladder to get nuclear energy as well as to reach space with whatever mean and with whatever source to counter contain india by china.

 

[blain2]

The author must honestly look at the political instability and the repeated rise of the military in government in Paksitan a bit more honestly.

How can the ills of Pakistan be attributed to India?

China is a bigger and more dangerous an adversary of India. Should India lament that all the ills of India are attributable to China. Fertile imagery can always be spun to prove that China is the source of all the problems of India, socially, militarily, diplomatically, economically and everything under the sun.

One must have the courage and the moral spine to call a spade a spade.

I think you read too much into the article. Aside from the title of the article, there is nothing in it that puts the onus on India.

To deal with Pakistan, US must consider the security challenges for Pakistan and India plays a big part in what comprises this challenge. The fact that Pakistani military establishment is here to stay as per the author, their concerns wrt India have to come into play when the US is dealing with Pakistan.

With regards to national identity, my own take is that if the distribution of wealth and economic uplift reaches out to all parts of Pakistan then very little of this sub-nationalistic rhetoric will surface. A case in point is Karachi. During the past 6 years or so, the ethnic violence has been drastically low due to the fact that Karachi being the economic hub has seen considerable generation of jobs and income for all. The second example is that of Pashtunistan or the Afghan influence in the NWFP prior to the 80s. Since the 80s, Pakistani government and also the Afghan war resulted in such growth in the documented and undocumented economy that the Pashtunistan issue went by the way side.

Most of the sub-nationalistic fervor comes from areas underdeveloped and ignored. The key is to invest in these areas and bring them into the economic mainstream otherwise these groups will be exploited by insiders and outsiders alike to the detriment of Pakistani federation.

 

[fatman17]

The author must honestly look at the political instability and the repeated rise of the military in government in Paksitan a bit more honestly.

How can the ills of Pakistan be attributed to India?

China is a bigger and more dangerous an adversary of India. Should India lament that all the ills of India are attributable to China. Fertile imagery can always be spun to prove that China is the source of all the problems of India, socially, militarily, diplomatically, economically and everything under the sun.

One must have the courage and the moral spine to call a spade a spade.

Pakistan first problem is that it has not been able to project her identity to its people. Urdu and Religion alone cannot be the symbol of an identity. The fact that Pakistanis (as in this forum indicated by a thread) are enthralled by the fact that they are Arabs indicates that being Arabs is the foremost acme of nationality! There was even one post which indicated that Arab scholars were the last word. If Arabs are the mentors and icons, then quo vadis the Pakistani identity? This undercurrent of identity identification is what upset the Bengalis ( again see the thread to indicate East of Indus is alien culture and genes) and they decided to go their own way. That is fine. But what did it encourage? Sub nationalism. This took shape in insurgencies and adding fuel to the fire, Zia uncorked the evil genie out of the bottle and now it has become difficult to put the genie back! The result is the troubles that grips Pakistan today!

Feudalism too has its role to play. In today's world all want a fair and level playing field. One cannot have masters and serfs. It only produces discontent and it slowly gathers momentum. It takes the shape of sub nationalism since that becomes a fair game instead of appearing to be a class struggle! Class struggle can be suppressed, but sub nationalism has it own lustre and sentimental pull!

US has its own priorities.

To her, the rise of China is a very serious threat and therefore she has to crank in certain facets to help her to contain this threat.

Her interest in CAR is not just for oil. It bring her closer to Xinjiang and leaning on there will distract China from its goal of being a superpower (as it will have to divert resources) as also from being Taiwan centric!

Pakistan will play out the role that the US wants since it will bankroll Pakistan as also please the military with weapons and their like.

Pakistan can be kept within the US ambit, but China cannot be kept in the bag!

These are but some early comments.

all the article is asking for a balanced approach which is independent of each country. it does not attribute to our ills (are) because of india. very few pakistanis consider themselves as arabs. this is certainly news to me. the bengalis seperating from pakistan was on the cards even at the time of partition. certain politicians did not accept the result of the most free and fair elections held in our country (read ZABhutto) but you must admit that India did its best to spur the break-up of Pakistan. i agree with your comment that zia lit the fires of ethnic and sectarian violence which has damaged the body politic of our country. fudalism is also a curse but it is waning. it is strongest in the sindh, but this may surprise you, they seem to accept this status quo.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

all the article is asking for a balanced approach which is independent of each country. it does not attribute to our ills (are) because of india. very few pakistanis consider themselves as arabs. this is certainly news to me. the bengalis seperating from pakistan was on the cards even at the time of partition. certain politicians did not accept the result of the most free and fair elections held in our country (read ZABhutto) but you must admit that India did its best to spur the break-up of Pakistan. i agree with your comment that zia lit the fires of ethnic and sectarian violence which has damaged the body politic of our country. fudalism is also a curse but it is waning. it is strongest in the sindh, but this may surprise you, they seem to accept this status quo.

Fatman,

The journalistic skill on reporting current events is all about implying, especially when it is a thorny subject or the facts are weak and yet the messages is to be delivered.

But then, if you feel otherwise, then I will give way.

As far as the Arab issue, I too was surprised when I read the posts in this forum in the thread on Cultural aspects and the differentiation that was being insisted upon about Pakistan being culturally and historically different right through history. Interestingly, the differentiation between "Indian civilisation" and "Modern India" was missed out.

On the Bengalis and those who came from East of Indus, the contentions were not flattering either. This is not what I am saying, it is what is being said in the posts.

To be frank, the past I should know, but it is not critical. What matters to me is the present and the future.

Some posters do not hesitate to give caustic comments when I praise Pakistan and wish it well. They cannot accept that an Indian can also see the good of Pakistan, while at the same time look criticality of issues. Praising or commending, is in no way, indicative of Blind Faith! But then, many posters believe Blind Faith is the only way to show patriotism! I feel that is obeisance to a false idol as is enshrined in the poem - Ducle et Decorum Est, Pro Patria Mori!

Personally, it does not matter to me as to what one is or what is his antecedents. What matters is, is the person a nice man and is he keen to coexist?

As far as India breaking up Pakistan, I would submit that it is not easy to break up a country, and that too a country that separated from the very country, based on a very heart touching reason - religion! You will notice that religion plays a major role in Islamic states, unlike elsewhere, Even on this forum, religion is brought in for even mundane issues, which too, appears unusual to me, since religion does not rule the mundane elsewhere.

But yes, I will concede that India did use the extraordinary situation that arose in 1971, which resulted in the break up of Pakistan. Mrs Gandhi was too shrewd a lady! Yes, the refugees were hurting, but then that is was causus belli!

As far as Zia is concerned, I regret that I cannot like him. The more I read of him and his legacy, the more I am despondent that for his selfish aims of obtaining legitimacy of his personal rule, he allowed fundamentalism to raise its ugly head and allow it to gnaw the innards of Pakistan itself. I am one of those who believe that an unstable Pakistan, is the greatest danger to India and that is why I always want the best for Pakistan!

There is no doubt that Pakistan requires to bring Afghanistan into its ambit. It is a realism that cannot be dismissed, if one sees it from the Pakistani perspective. Therefore, it was essential for Pakistan to fan and support the insurrection in Afghanistan against the Soviets.

Now, if one reads the book by the Pakistani ISI Brigadier who organised the same Bear Trap, then one can perceive his frustration wherein the Mujhaideens were allowed total freedom to run a riot and even override the decision of the ISI. In fact, that there was some semblance of unity of ideas, is solely because of the ISI, but it still was not adequate as per him.

Zia should have seen that this Islamic fundamentalism did not colour Pakistan. But he instead encouraged all sorts of fundamental elements to rule supreme, even in Pakistan and the results are haunting Pakistan and more so, Musharraf. It is a damn shame that leaders of Pakistan can so easily be the targets of the fundamentalist morass, be it Musharraf or Bhutto or even the PM Aziz! Who are the terrorists to dictate terms to the Pakistani leadership? And shocking is that some Pakistanis on this forum use religion and indirectly are supporting of the cause of these anti national elements holding Pakistan to ransom.

I also find it lame that all the fault of Pakistan is blamed on foreign powers and their elements. There is no doubt that foreign agencies operate in Pakistan to serve their own national interest. But then, that is natural and all countries do it, including Pakistan. I would only draw everyone's attention that before blaming foreign elements, who will do everything for their national cause, a bit of introspection is done. Can any foreign agency operate if the whole Nation is against and does not support such activities? The fact that there are supporters within, for whatever be the cause, is what one must check out and eliminate. No intelligence can be successful and no covert or over operation by foreign agencies is feasible without the support of elements within the country. The same is true for Pakistan as it is true for India or any other country.

Therefore, I find your, AM and MK's post, amongst others most educative compared to those who are juvenile and steeped in pet peeves of hate or misuse religion as the be all and end all of discussion!

My apologies for this all encompassing reply, but I see your point!

Indeed, I wish Pakistan well. Pakistan's stability and economic vibrancy is the best answer to all problems!

 

[fatman17]

Fatman,

The journalistic skill on reporting current events is all about implying, especially when it is a thorny subject or the facts are weak and yet the messages is to be delivered.

But then, if you feel otherwise, then I will give way.

As far as the Arab issue, I too was surprised when I read the posts in this forum in the thread on Cultural aspects and the differentiation that was being insisted upon about Pakistan being culturally and historically different right through history. Interestingly, the differentiation between "Indian civilisation" and "Modern India" was missed out.

On the Bengalis and those who came from East of Indus, the contentions were not flattering either. This is not what I am saying, it is what is being said in the posts.

To be frank, the past I should know, but it is not critical. What matters to me is the present and the future.

Some posters do not hesitate to give caustic comments when I praise Pakistan and wish it well. They cannot accept that an Indian can also see the good of Pakistan, while at the same time look criticality of issues. Praising or commending, is in no way, indicative of Blind Faith! But then, many posters believe Blind Faith is the only way to show patriotism! I feel that is obeisance to a false idol as is enshrined in the poem - Ducle et Decorum Est, Pro Patria Mori!

Personally, it does not matter to me as to what one is or what is his antecedents. What matters is, is the person a nice man and is he keen to coexist?

As far as India breaking up Pakistan, I would submit that it is not easy to break up a country, and that too a country that separated from the very country, based on a very heart touching reason - religion! You will notice that religion plays a major role in Islamic states, unlike elsewhere, Even on this forum, religion is brought in for even mundane issues, which too, appears unusual to me, since religion does not rule the mundane elsewhere.

But yes, I will concede that India did use the extraordinary situation that arose in 1971, which resulted in the break up of Pakistan. Mrs Gandhi was too shrewd a lady! Yes, the refugees were hurting, but then that is was causus belli!

As far as Zia is concerned, I regret that I cannot like him. The more I read of him and his legacy, the more I am despondent that for his selfish aims of obtaining legitimacy of his personal rule, he allowed fundamentalism to raise its ugly head and allow it to gnaw the innards of Pakistan itself. I am one of those who believe that an unstable Pakistan, is the greatest danger to India and that is why I always want the best for Pakistan!

There is no doubt that Pakistan requires to bring Afghanistan into its ambit. It is a realism that cannot be dismissed, if one sees it from the Pakistani perspective. Therefore, it was essential for Pakistan to fan and support the insurrection in Afghanistan against the Soviets.

Now, if one reads the book by the Pakistani ISI Brigadier who organised the same Bear Trap, then one can perceive his frustration wherein the Mujhaideens were allowed total freedom to run a riot and even override the decision of the ISI. In fact, that there was some semblance of unity of ideas, is solely because of the ISI, but it still was not adequate as per him.

Zia should have seen that this Islamic fundamentalism did not colour Pakistan. But he instead encouraged all sorts of fundamental elements to rule supreme, even in Pakistan and the results are haunting Pakistan and more so, Musharraf. It is a damn shame that leaders of Pakistan can so easily be the targets of the fundamentalist morass, be it Musharraf or Bhutto or even the PM Aziz! Who are the terrorists to dictate terms to the Pakistani leadership? And shocking is that some Pakistanis on this forum use religion and indirectly are supporting of the cause of these anti national elements holding Pakistan to ransom.

I also find it lame that all the fault of Pakistan is blamed on foreign powers and their elements. There is no doubt that foreign agencies operate in Pakistan to serve their own national interest. But then, that is natural and all countries do it, including Pakistan. I would only draw everyone's attention that before blaming foreign elements, who will do everything for their national cause, a bit of introspection is done. Can any foreign agency operate if the whole Nation is against and does not support such activities? The fact that there are supporters within, for whatever be the cause, is what one must check out and eliminate. No intelligence can be successful and no covert or over operation by foreign agencies is feasible without the support of elements within the country. The same is true for Pakistan as it is true for India or any other country.

Therefore, I find your, AM and MK's post, amongst others most educative compared to those who are juvenile and steeped in pet peeves of hate or misuse religion as the be all and end all of discussion!

My apologies for this all encompassing reply, but I see your point!

Indeed, I wish Pakistan well. Pakistan's stability and economic vibrancy is the best answer to all problems!

Thx - I coudnt agree with you more! I do look forward to your insights on this forum.
Good Luck!

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Fatman,

It is always a pleasure to exchange notes with you.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Ok---if you see this movie SYRIANA by George Clooney, you may get a clearer picture of what is happening in and around pakistan.

Pakistan has stirred up the hornets nest in the west by constructing gwadar port through the assistance of the chinese---the next step is for the oil pipeline reaching china---the third step is rail and road communication to china from this port---pakistan has defied the U S by signing up with iran as well---the problem with the pakistanis is that they are trying to sell themselves real cheap----they donot understand their true worth---that is the reason they are looking for instant gains and benefits---case in point PPP and Nawaz PML---. Pakistan may have inadvertarntly wrestled onto something too strong to handle by themselves.

Now consider this scenario----iranians gun boats chase U S navy ships---pakistan has an active naval base in the viccinity of gwadar---chinese navy is visiting pakistani naval base at gwadar or neighbouring port---doesn't that add another dimension to the puzzle---there is too much power play behind the scenes---Musharraf and his allies have not used that information to their advantage---somebody needs to speak to the public and tell them what the west is upto and what PPP and pml N is going to do to harm the nation---sombody needs to talk to the pakistani public on a regular basis and mae them understand about power politics.

 

[salman nedian]

Pakistan first problem is that it has not been able to project her identity to its people. Urdu and Religion alone cannot be the symbol of an identity. The fact that Pakistanis (as in this forum indicated by a thread) are enthralled by the fact that they are Arabs indicates that being Arabs is the foremost acme of nationality! There was even one post which indicated that Arab scholars were the last word. If Arabs are the mentors and icons, then quo vadis the Pakistani identity? This undercurrent of identity identification is what upset the Bengalis ( again see the thread to indicate East of Indus is alien culture and genes) and they decided to go their own way. That is fine. But what did it encourage? Sub nationalism. This took shape in insurgencies and adding fuel to the fire, Zia uncorked the evil genie out of the bottle and now it has become difficult to put the genie back! The result is the troubles that grips Pakistan today!

Feudalism too has its role to play. In today's world all want a fair and level playing field. One cannot have masters and serfs. It only produces discontent and it slowly gathers momentum. It takes the shape of sub nationalism since that becomes a fair game instead of appearing to be a class struggle! Class struggle can be suppressed, but sub nationalism has it own lustre and sentimental pull!

I don’t think so that we consider ourselves as Arab. what we think is that our identity is Islam and Pakistani and then if u see today’s Pakistan u will find that the ethnic discrimination is being reduced coz we all have realized that we have to live together coz if Sindh is not there we don’t have industries,if Punjab is not there then food is not there,if Sarhad(NWFP) is not there water is not there and Baluchistan is our natural resources. You said that Bengalis were depressed due to identity confusion but you can see in this forum that Bengalis wants a Union with Pakistan this means that ultimately Islam is our Identity.
In a sense u r right that we need to develop a “Pakistani” mentality among our people and need to throw out feudalism.

 

[fatman17]

Hi,

Ok---if you see this movie SYRIANA by George Clooney, you may get a clearer picture of what is happening in and around pakistan.

Pakistan has stirred up the hornets nest in the west by constructing gwadar port through the assistance of the chinese---the next step is for the oil pipeline reaching china---the third step is rail and road communication to china from this port---pakistan has defied the U S by signing up with iran as well---the problem with the pakistanis is that they are trying to sell themselves real cheap----they donot understand their true worth---that is the reason they are looking for instant gains and benefits---case in point PPP and Nawaz PML---. Pakistan may have inadvertarntly wrestled onto something too strong to handle by themselves.

Now consider this scenario----iranians gun boats chase U S navy ships---pakistan has an active naval base in the viccinity of gwadar---chinese navy is visiting pakistani naval base at gwadar or neighbouring port---doesn't that add another dimension to the puzzle---there is too much power play behind the scenes---Musharraf and his allies have not used that information to their advantage---somebody needs to speak to the public and tell them what the west is upto and what PPP and pml N is going to do to harm the nation---sombody needs to talk to the pakistani public on a regular basis and mae them understand about power politics.

MK - could u elaborate on the roles of the PPP and PML-N in this scenario.

 

[IceCold]

IMO i dont think that pakistanies have tried to sell themselves cheap by allining themselves with china or for that matter Iran. I take it this way that its an honest act on behalf of pakistan to distant it self from the constant blackmailing of the West in paticular the US.
By the way this comment sounds very strange when people say that pakistan wasnt able to cash the situation with US. If we carefully analysise the situation, we'll know that US has on numerous different occasions stated that its interests lies with india(for instance the nuclear deal) and as far as pakistan is concerned, the cooperation lies only to an extent of terrorism. There isnt any bilateral thing going on, they decide what to do and then hand over the demands to pakistan and if we refuse it comply, they threat to bomb us back to stone age. So in an environment like this, i think its a very geninue step taken by pakistan to distance it self away from the US.