Cat Shannon
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2050, that date has been set. But the meaning varies, 2050 just means we will be able to win in 2050 WITHIN the first island chain and the South China Sea decisively, and have a good chance WITHIN the second island chain, but lose past Guam.
We can challenge them else where, but depending on the political and strategic situation of that time how effective relative to the US varies.
2035 would be the time, we can definitely beat the US within the first island chain and probably South China Sea.
I'll tell you why.
China's problem right now isn't radar, weapons and electronic systems, to a lesser extent software even. It's platform.
China has no big transports, Y-20 by 2017-18 will solve that problem(domestic engine too), while C919-C939 will also contribute to the solution but that requires to about 2030ish for C939(300+seat airliner).
Z-20, Z-15, and other Z series helicopter will also help considerably by 2030.
We have plenty of Anti Sub weapons, including helicopter sub hunters, but the thing is, the helicopter is either too small or outdated.
We have under water drones, sonars, and all kinds of different weapons, but the thing is our platform shortage is a MAJOR problem. We have a Y-9 based ASW plane, but it's range and carry isn't top of the line, it's effective for short range missions but needs work for long range ones.
Bigger planes can also be made into oilers and greatly extend the range and operation time of all of these planes.
I should also mention one of the most lethal Sub hunter is submarine itself, and we will update all 50 diesel subs into state of the art subs by 2030.
Plans are also discussed for 20-25 nuclear attack subs, but the timeline on this isn't set.
LCS? We have 24 054A now, and 20 more 054B by 2023. So.....Not a big deal. Did I mention 50 type 056 and potentially another 50 of the same or a improved version is also talked about.
F-22? F-35? J-20, J-31. WS-13's factory is built, 2015 will start the first production engine next year, WS-10, still needs a year or so, 2016 at the latest, a version that can finally be mass produced( we have hundred or so WS-10 equipped fighter now, but needs work still.
WS-15, fifth gen engine by 2020ish, first test flight next year.
With reports, and our current number, future spending, and mission, 1,000+ fifth gen fighters deployed in China is all but assured.
There's no way America would deploy that many within the first island chain.
Missiles? We are about equal right now, I don't see any reason why it be any different decades from now.
I missed quite a few other things, but we'll leave it here for now.
hmmm...thank you so much.