Before I say what I'm about to say, I'm putting out a disclaimer: never would I want to see it come to blows, so any type of war against Iran is not something I would ever want to see. That being said, I'm sure you realize there are different types of wars, and if there will be any type of military action, it will only be in the form of 'round the clock' air strikes. There won't be any "Iraq invasion" type strategy here. There are certain "valued targets" as you well know that will be listed in order of importance. I wouldn't be surprised if the US plans an attempt at a regime change with a separate covert action after they take out the Mullah residences and probably target certain valued government buildings. There could very well be a plan for a certain group within Iran (whether it comes in from Iraq or even Syria) that would be poised to take control of the government and the people within the ensuing chaos of multiple and crippling air strikes.
People can rag on the US all they want, but those in the know realize that its aerial punch is nothing to laugh about, quite the opposite. I wouldn't even doubt if Israeli aircraft would be flying with American colors in separate but coordinated formations and strikes. US strike munition is the most precise and most powerful in the world, so it's no joke by any means. Not only that, coordination and mission planning will most certainly start with eliminating and suppression of air defense systems, something the US has been doing since 1947 and they refined it in 1966 in Vietnam. Now it excels at it with the most advanced technology out there. They've only been ahead of everyone else in SEAD missions since then and what's the most potent AD system in Iran, the S-300VM? Gonna need a minimum of 150 batteries and a stockpile of 8000 missiles without losing a single battery in the malay. Does Russia even have that number? Gonna have to take out what will most likely be a preliminary and overwhelming attack of maybe 5,000 tomahawks that will target all military airports and command centers. That's always been the US' modus operendi and they will be overwhelming attacks in a manner that's probably never been seen before. UCAVs strikes following the cruise missiles and then you'll see E/A-18G Growlers sending out all sorts of EW signals and jamming the entire coastal front where they'll be followed by E-2C Hawkeys and E-3 Sentrys backing up a slew of F-35s just lurking waiting for Iranian Tomcats to get within their radars and we know the Tomcats are probably not going to see the F-35s until they hear their own MAWS lighting up from AIM-120s coming at them. But prior to this point, they'll most likely fly two dozen B2 Spirits at a much higher altitude lobbing JDAMs to take out all the runways and towers and any aircraft that are exposed. Even ones in hangars will get bunker busters if the Tomahawks missed them. The B2s would probably drop $1B worth of munitions and there would still be 6000 times that stockpile left over. This is how scary this whole thing is. Follow any missed targets with B1-Bs dropping MOABs on certain hard targets and escaping at mach-3. This is almost impossible to defend.
By then, whatever aircraft they choose to perform the interdiction missions with to take out the "valued" targets will commence and won't stop no matter how many sorties it takes to accomplish all missions. While all of this is going on, there's also the threat of any number of Ohio and Virginia Class submarines firing their own slew of Tomahawks and harpoons which would more likely be the US' strategy to taking on the Iranian navy. The prospect of the damage that can be caused by those submarines is beyond what most distractors can imagine and are practically impossible to defend without an equivalent platform.
This is the scary type of war that the US (even without the help of the Israelis) can easily mount and wouldn't even make a dent in the budget. God forbid this ever happens, but when the craziest lunatic who said publicly on TV that he would've bombed Iran 5 or 6 years ago and who's headline in the newspaper the day before Obama made the deal with your guys was "to stop Iran's bomb, bomb Iran" just became the national security adviser ..... is frankly a very scary prospect. If there is ever a war mongering scumbag, this is him. The orange baboon couldn't have found anyone worst. And with the way Trump is sorely in need of some foreign policy victory with the looming meeting between him and Kim Jong Un which is bound to fail miserably since we know that an already nuclear NK is not giving that up in exchange for peanuts and more importantly this NSA change comes squarely after Netanyahu's visit to the US, I would never assume this is a bluff just because it hasn't happened yet.
My only question would be how and what will this clown of an administration uses as an excuse for going to war. Not living up to the spirit of the agreement won't cut the cheese. They'll need to come up with something much worst to blame on Iran and we all know that doesn't take much for the US to do so. So why would the aforementioned type of war not be a huge possibility with just the way things have developed in the last month and how's Iran going to defend itself against a barrage like that?
Bro see below topic for my estimation about American cruise missile number in first wave of attack
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/how-will-america-attack.509136/page-9#post-9727461
In short:
2. first wave of American attack
the under water swords of US to invade:
Tomahawk:
base on wiki :
Unit cost : 1.8 m$ (block 4)
Warhead : 450 kg
Operational range : not more than 2500 km in longest range block
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Launch platforms:
Los Angeles-class submarine:
Active number : 36
Tomahawk fire power : 37
Total Tomahawk for all : 36*37 = 1332
Ohio-class submarine :
Active number : 18
Tomahawk fire power : 154
Total Tomahawk for all : 18*154= 2772
Seawolf-class submarine
Active number : 3
Tomahawk fire power : 50
Total Tomahawk for all : 3*50= 150
Virginia-class submarine
Active number : 13
Tomahawk fire power : 40
Total Tomahawk for all : 13*40= 520
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I personally do not believe that American would bring All of their submarines to attack Iran, in addition submarines do not carry only Tomahawk missiles. Submarines should bring torpedoes in torpedo room as well to protect themselves, so base on my calculation Americans are able to fire maximum
2000 Tomahawk cruise missiles from SubWater
.
1332 + 2772 + 150 + 520 = 4774
if Americans bring half of them to attack Iran : 2387
considering torpedoes as well in tubes : 2000 Tomahawk
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behind submarines would be Americans cruisers and destroyers for firing more tomahawk missiles
Arleigh Burke-class destroyer :
Active number : 64
Tomahawk fire power : this destroyer has 96,
Mk 41 Vertical Launching System (VLS) and we assume just 50 of them are filled with Tomahawk
Total Tomahawk for all : 64*50= 3200
Ticonderoga-class cruiser :
Active number : 22
Tomahawk fire power : this destroyer has 122,
Mk 41 Vertical Launching System (VLS) and we assume just 75 of them are filled with Tomahawk
Total Tomahawk for all : 22*75= 1650
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as result Americans are able to fire 4850 (3200+1650) tomahawk missiles, if bring all of their destroyers and cruiser which is impossible again to bring all of them for war with Iran.
we consider only half of these ships would come for war which this lead us to
around 2000 cruise missiles again.
behind all of these ships would be American aircraft carriers which are able to carry F/A 18 and other planes
Nimitz-class aircraft carrier :
Active number : 10
Aircraft carried: 85–90 fixed wing and helicopters
Total Aircraft for all : 10*85= 850
F/A-18 Hornet :
AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER under F/A 18
F/A-18 is able to fly from
Nimitz aircraft carriers and fire AGM-84H/K SLAM-ER with 270 km range an also AGM-158 JASSM with more than 1000 km range.
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This won't exceed 4000 cruise missiles in first wave of attack.
