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The west is doing its best to help China
US steel tariffs are just the latest in a list of blunders handing windfalls to Beijing
Donald Trump's blanket actions will make it easier for Xi Jinping to divide what we still call the west © AFP
Edward Luce YESTERDAY
Most of it is unintentional. Yet the west could not be helping China more if it tried. First we bet that China would consciously remake itself in our image. All we needed to do was nudge it along. That obviously failed. Then we reverted to the belief that history would steer the country to its liberal democratic endpoint — whether China knew of its destiny or not. Ditto.
Finally, we threw up our hands. China is plotting its own non-western course. All we can do is — what? Readers should fill in the blanks.
It is facile to lay all the blame on Donald Trump. To be sure, the US president’s proposed steel and aluminium tariffs are a case study in collateral damage. America’s allies will be hit far harder by Mr Trump’s friendly fire than Beijing. His blanket actions will make it easier for Xi Jinping, China’s “emperor-for-life” president, to divide what we still call the west.
But Mr Trump is only making a bad situation worse. The mess was something he inherited. Responsibility for the west’s blunders is all-inclusive. It bears everyone’s fingerprint — American, European, neoliberal and social democratic.
Each has been doing their bit to shift things in China’s direction. We are not yet a fifth of the way into the 21st century, but the west has already given Beijing three big windfalls. Mr Trump is working on a fourth.
The first was the 2003 Iraq war, which outweighs the damage the US president has caused so far. The war split the west between “old” and “new” Europe, as Donald Rumsfeld, the then US defence secretary, put it. It also cost the US and its allies more than $1tn in direct spending — and far more in opportunity cost.
The Iraq war also showed up the limits of the west’s military hard power. You cannot impose democracy at gunpoint. China watched while the west squandered its hard and soft power.
The second was the 2008 financial meltdown. The crisis debunked the myth that the west’s middle classes had been getting richer. As US investor Warren Buffett said, when the tide went out we saw how many were swimming naked. Western consumers had been borrowing beyond their means.
Many still refer to what followed as a global recession. In fact it was an Atlantic one. China has maintained strong levels of growth. As the west cut back on development lending, Beijing stepped into the breach.
From Africa to central Asia, democracy lost some of its allure. China’s Belt and Road Initiative was given its name last year. But it is at least a decade old. Last month, the democracy watchdog Freedom House announced the 12th consecutive year in which global freedom has fallen.
The third geopolitical gift to China is a work in progress — the west’s populist backlash. Whether you date it from the UK’s Brexit vote, or Mr Trump’s victory, its origins go much deeper. The decline in trust for western institutions has been under way for most of this century. We no longer believe our leaders work for us.
Italy’s election last Sunday was the most recent rebuke to the west’s technocratic classes. The rest of the world is watching closely. For the first time on record, China’s president has higher global approval ratings than America’s. Some — though not all — stems from Mr Trump’s awkward relationship with the truth. It is easy to mock those who think he “tells it like it is”. What they mean is that he speaks plainly. Even when he lies, Mr Trump’s meaning is easy to grasp. Alas, the rest of the world hears him all too clearly.
Is the US president the west’s greatest gift to China? That depends on how far he goes. For the time being, the answer is yes. America’s advantage lies in the strength of its alliances. China’s only treaty ally is Mongolia. The more Mr Trump undercuts friends such as Canada and Germany, the easier Mr Xi’s task of taking global centre stage. He is a cheerleader for China’s authoritarianism.
“I think it’s great,” the US president said of his counterpart’s decision to scrap China’s presidential term limit. “Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day.”
Some of Mr Trump’s critics took fright for the wrong reason. Even if he was being serious, there is scant chance he could make himself US president for life. The problem is that the rest of the world, including China, is taking Mr Trump seriously.
If I were a Chinese dissident, I would think about switching to gardening. Not only has America mislaid its faith in democrats abroad, it has lost its trust in democracy at home.
For the time being, the US is the emperor with no clothes.
https://www.ft.com/content/66f99e1c-2143-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80
US steel tariffs are just the latest in a list of blunders handing windfalls to Beijing
Donald Trump's blanket actions will make it easier for Xi Jinping to divide what we still call the west © AFP
Edward Luce YESTERDAY
Most of it is unintentional. Yet the west could not be helping China more if it tried. First we bet that China would consciously remake itself in our image. All we needed to do was nudge it along. That obviously failed. Then we reverted to the belief that history would steer the country to its liberal democratic endpoint — whether China knew of its destiny or not. Ditto.
Finally, we threw up our hands. China is plotting its own non-western course. All we can do is — what? Readers should fill in the blanks.
It is facile to lay all the blame on Donald Trump. To be sure, the US president’s proposed steel and aluminium tariffs are a case study in collateral damage. America’s allies will be hit far harder by Mr Trump’s friendly fire than Beijing. His blanket actions will make it easier for Xi Jinping, China’s “emperor-for-life” president, to divide what we still call the west.
But Mr Trump is only making a bad situation worse. The mess was something he inherited. Responsibility for the west’s blunders is all-inclusive. It bears everyone’s fingerprint — American, European, neoliberal and social democratic.
Each has been doing their bit to shift things in China’s direction. We are not yet a fifth of the way into the 21st century, but the west has already given Beijing three big windfalls. Mr Trump is working on a fourth.
The first was the 2003 Iraq war, which outweighs the damage the US president has caused so far. The war split the west between “old” and “new” Europe, as Donald Rumsfeld, the then US defence secretary, put it. It also cost the US and its allies more than $1tn in direct spending — and far more in opportunity cost.
The Iraq war also showed up the limits of the west’s military hard power. You cannot impose democracy at gunpoint. China watched while the west squandered its hard and soft power.
The second was the 2008 financial meltdown. The crisis debunked the myth that the west’s middle classes had been getting richer. As US investor Warren Buffett said, when the tide went out we saw how many were swimming naked. Western consumers had been borrowing beyond their means.
Many still refer to what followed as a global recession. In fact it was an Atlantic one. China has maintained strong levels of growth. As the west cut back on development lending, Beijing stepped into the breach.
From Africa to central Asia, democracy lost some of its allure. China’s Belt and Road Initiative was given its name last year. But it is at least a decade old. Last month, the democracy watchdog Freedom House announced the 12th consecutive year in which global freedom has fallen.
The third geopolitical gift to China is a work in progress — the west’s populist backlash. Whether you date it from the UK’s Brexit vote, or Mr Trump’s victory, its origins go much deeper. The decline in trust for western institutions has been under way for most of this century. We no longer believe our leaders work for us.
Italy’s election last Sunday was the most recent rebuke to the west’s technocratic classes. The rest of the world is watching closely. For the first time on record, China’s president has higher global approval ratings than America’s. Some — though not all — stems from Mr Trump’s awkward relationship with the truth. It is easy to mock those who think he “tells it like it is”. What they mean is that he speaks plainly. Even when he lies, Mr Trump’s meaning is easy to grasp. Alas, the rest of the world hears him all too clearly.
Is the US president the west’s greatest gift to China? That depends on how far he goes. For the time being, the answer is yes. America’s advantage lies in the strength of its alliances. China’s only treaty ally is Mongolia. The more Mr Trump undercuts friends such as Canada and Germany, the easier Mr Xi’s task of taking global centre stage. He is a cheerleader for China’s authoritarianism.
“I think it’s great,” the US president said of his counterpart’s decision to scrap China’s presidential term limit. “Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day.”
Some of Mr Trump’s critics took fright for the wrong reason. Even if he was being serious, there is scant chance he could make himself US president for life. The problem is that the rest of the world, including China, is taking Mr Trump seriously.
If I were a Chinese dissident, I would think about switching to gardening. Not only has America mislaid its faith in democrats abroad, it has lost its trust in democracy at home.
For the time being, the US is the emperor with no clothes.
https://www.ft.com/content/66f99e1c-2143-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80
