The Taliban are sitting on $1 trillion worth of minerals the world desperately needs

[dbc]

I totally agree on the stability bit - will have to defer to what you say on the lithium bit as that is not an area of expertise of mine.

If the Taliban are sincere and they want to build a tolerant state under Islamic guidelines then they need to make sure that it is indeed inclusive and tolerant. Other views, all ethnic groups and women must and should play their part in the social and economic life of Afghanistan.

The Taliban would be very unwise to throw their lot in with the Chinese as then they risk being devoured by a massive and far more powerful and technologically advanced neighbour next-door.

It is in their interest to rule within the accepted standards of human rights in the world, as it is in the 21st century, and so they can trade and have good(or at least not hostile) relations with their neighbours and the great powers around the world such as USA, Europe, Russia, China, Japan etc.

Afghanistan will not suddenly emerge from the dark ages and transform itself into prosperous well run country over night. It will take time and exceptional leadership to make it happen.

China already has her hands full with other more profitable less risky ventures in Africa , Asia, Central Asia and South America to really get distracted and over extended by Afghanistan.

They may test the waters with a few less risky pilot projects but nothing extravagant for the moment.

The Environmental Impact of Lithium Batteries

During the Obama-Biden administration, hydraulic fracturing was accused of causing a number of environmental problems—faucets on fire, contamination of drinking…

www.instituteforenergyresearch.org

 

[Verve]

Sure good luck with that ...

FYI, the Mississippi river holds between 1.5 and 5 million gallons of water. So we're looking at between 3 to 10 million metric tons of Lithium from draining an entire river. Of course, you also have to deal with millions of gallons of toxic water.

Like I said before, good luck with that.

As I said, it would be a long term project with feasibility studies including environmental damage. Don't get stuck on Lithium alone -> Afghanistan has enough copper, gold and rare earth minerals that don't require water usage for extraction and for IEA to generate revenue from.

 

[Adecypher]

Afghanistan will not suddenly emerge from the dark ages and transform itself into prosperous well run country over night. It will take time and exceptional leadership to make it happen.

And I might add if you will - "Also, given NO attempt from western industrial predatory conglomerates to act as collective economic hitmen targeting Afghanistan in Future"...

 

[MH.Yang]

You really have very high hopes. FYI, extracting one metric ton of lithium requires 500,000 gallons of water. So unless, Xi is able to magic a massive river into Afghanistan there isn't much chance of turning Afghanistan into the Saudi Arabia of Lithium. Besides, you really don't want a lithium mine and concentration plant in your neighborhood it contaminates ground water and rivers for many generations.

China can transport lithium ore to eastern China for processing.
Moreover, the environment in Northwest China has changed dramatically, the rainfall has increased significantly, and many deserts have disappeared.

I'll tell you something you can't believe:
The largest desert in China, Taklimakan Desert. In recent years, its precipitation has increased sharply.
On July 19 this year, a flood occurred in Taklimakan, and 30k sets of equipment of CNPC were flooded.
Do you believe it? There was a flood in the desert.


Since April 17, 1951, China has carried out afforestation projects in Northwest China. By 2020, Chinese people have planted more than 2 billion trees. These trees have greatly changed the climate and precipitation in Northwest China.

 

[jupiter2007]

Even though I don’t like Chinese business practices, I hope China investment in Afghanistan and new Afghan government investment in their people.

 

[dbc]

China can transport lithium ore to eastern China for processing.
Moreover, the environment in Northwest China has changed dramatically, the rainfall has increased significantly, and many deserts have disappeared.

I'll tell you something you can't believe:
The largest desert in China, Taklimakan Desert. In recent years, its precipitation has increased sharply.
On July 19 this year, a flood occurred in Taklimakan, and 30k sets of equipment of CNPC were flooded.
Do you believe it? There was a flood in the desert.


Since April 17, 1951, China has carried out afforestation projects in Northwest China. By 2020, Chinese people have planted more than 2 billion trees. These trees have greatly changed the climate and precipitation in Northwest China.

Sure you can transport the ore to China assuming Afghan Lithium deposits are hard rock and not liquid brine. But the lithium yield from one ton of ore is typically just 1% so you will have to transport a lot of ore over rough mountains terrain past the Hindu Kush and scale the high elevation of the Himalayan plateau to reach a processing facility in China. It takes several tons of ore to extract enough lithium for one electric vehicle. Plus processing Lithium ore produces 15,000 kg of CO2 per ton of ore.

As I said before - good luck.

 

[MH.Yang]

Sure you can transport the ore to China assuming Afghan Lithium deposits are hard rock and not liquid brine. But the lithium yield from one ton of ore is typically just 1% so you will have to transport a lot of ore over rough mountains terrain past the Hindu Kush and scale the high elevation of the Himalayan plateau to reach a processing facility in China. It takes several tons of ore to extract enough lithium for one electric vehicle. Plus processing Lithium ore produces 15,000 kg of CO2 per ton of ore.

As I said before - good luck.

Let's build some railways and tunnels.
We have built railways and even high-speed railways in Tibet. We should and can defeat the Hindu Kush mountains. Its terrain cannot be worse than the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.
Don't underestimate the patience of the Chinese people. We can plant trees for 70 years in Northwest China, also can build railways for 70 years in Afghanistan.

Of course, the premise of all this is that the Taliban need to prove that it is a stable and inclusive regime. And China's investment will be protected and rewarded.

 

[blueazure]

You really have very high hopes. FYI, extracting one metric ton of lithium requires 500,000 gallons of water. So unless, Xi is able to magic a massive river into Afghanistan there isn't much chance of turning Afghanistan into the Saudi Arabia of Lithium. Besides, you really don't want a lithium mine and concentration plant in your neighborhood it contaminates ground water and rivers for many generations.

Li is extracted as Lio2 ore and the ore can be shipped to china / some other place and processed there

the chinese are not stupid as you think

 

[UKBengali]

Afghanistan will not suddenly emerge from the dark ages and transform itself into prosperous well run country over night. It will take time and exceptional leadership to make it happen.

China already has her hands full with other more profitable less risky ventures in Africa , Asia, Central Asia and South America to really get distracted and over extended by Afghanistan.

They may test the waters with a few less risky pilot projects but nothing extravagant for the moment.

The Environmental Impact of Lithium Batteries

During the Obama-Biden administration, hydraulic fracturing was accused of causing a number of environmental problems—faucets on fire, contamination of drinking…

www.instituteforenergyresearch.org

Well I am hoping for something different this time and remember that 20 years of education and living a more secular lifestyle by vast swathes of the population just cannot be wished away by the Taliban.

You forget that China has a land border with Afghanistan and that would give it more interest to the Chinese than far away lands in Africa that may have supplies disrupted during conflict and where the Chinese would have less influence naturally.

We shall have to wait and see over the coming months and years how this pans out.

 

[dbc]

Let's build some railways and tunnels.
We have built railways and even high-speed railways in Tibet. We should and can defeat the Hindu Kush mountains. Its terrain cannot be worse than the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.
Don't underestimate the patience of the Chinese people. We can plant trees for 70 years in Northwest China, also can build railways for 70 years in Afghanistan.

Of course, the premise of all this is that the Taliban need to prove that it is a stable and inclusive regime. And China's investment will be protected and rewarded.

of course you can do all these things no problem but then not at a profit. Lithium mining is problematic even in ideal conditions. Most operators of hard rock mines are running at a loss in a stable favorable business environment.

Li is extracted as Lio2 ore and the ore can be shipped to china / some other place and processed there

the chinese are not stupid as you think

oh noes! red bold text you must be right.

 

[dbc]

Well I am hoping for something different this time and remember that 20 years of education and living a more secular lifestyle by vast swathes of the population just cannot be wished away by the Taliban.

You forget that China has a land border with Afghanistan and that would give it more interest to the Chinese than far away lands in Africa that may have supplies disrupted during conflict and where the Chinese would have less influence naturally.

We shall have to wait and see over the coming months and years how this pans out.

Not disagreeing with you. Yes the Chinese share a border with Afghanistan but over extreme difficult terrain. Extending a rail and road network to Afghanistan will require huge investments with no assurances that the Afghan nation will remain stable long enough for them to recoup their investments. If the Chinese decide that Afghanistan is a strategic investment and worth taking a huge risk then yes all economic considerations fly out the window.

But I don't see why the Chinese will take the risk they already have land access to central Asia and Europe through two land routes. One through Russia and the other through Tajikistan, Kazakhstan...So apart from minerals there is very little incentive for China to take the risk.

Remember China is already heavily extended with CPEC and Belt and Road through Asia, Europe and Africa.

 

[UKBengali]

Not disagreeing with you. Yes the Chinese share a border with Afghanistan but over extreme difficult terrain. Extending a rail and road network to Afghanistan will require huge investments with no assurances that the Afghan nation will remain stable long enough for them to recoup their investments. If the Chinese decide that Afghanistan is a strategic investment and worth taking a huge risk then yes all economic considerations fly out the window.

But I don't see why the Chinese will take the risk they already have land access to central Asia and Europe through two land routes. One through Russia and the other through Tajikistan, Kazakhstan...So apart from minerals there is very little incentive for China to take the risk.

Remember China is already heavily extended with CPEC and Belt and Road through Asia, Europe and Africa.

Since China is a next door neighbour the Taliban need to be extra careful when dealing with the Chinese.

Despite what some posters here think, the Chinese are not a get out of jail card to allow the Taliban to both have their version of Islam imposed on their population and make lots of money from selling their minerals.

I cannot see a China making billions in investments and then just leaving afterward if the situation gets unstable. China would think nothing of sending its military to defend these mines if the need arises.
They would also get no support from Pakistan as that is a Chinese client state and the Iranians also would probably act in tandem with the Chinese.

Unless they want to go back to their medieval lifestyle they best learn to cultivate relations with all the powers of the world. The ball is in their court now.

 

[Path-Finder]

lithium is not the only minerals afghanistan has.

 

[chinasun]

There will be many countries to invest in Afghanistan in the future, and the Taliban will not put eggs in one basket. Afghanistan also has gold, silver, copper, rare earths and other minerals.

 

[dbc]

Since China is a next door neighbour the Taliban need to be extra careful when dealing with the Chinese.

Despite what some posters here think, the Chinese are not a get out of jail card to allow the Taliban to both have their version of Islam imposed on their population and make lots of money from selling their minerals.

I cannot see a China making billions in investments and then just leaving afterward if the situation gets unstable. China would think nothing of sending its military to defend these mines if the need arises.
They would also get no support from Pakistan as that is a Chinese client state and the Iranians also would probably act in tandem with the Chinese.

Unless they want to go back to their medieval lifestyle they best learn to cultivate relations with all the powers of the world. The ball is in their court now.

no the Chinese are not stupid to put boots on Afghan soil. Especially not after seeing the US spend ten years EMBROILED in Afghanistan with nothing to show for it.

Having the PLA stuck in Afghanistan will make ISI very happy. I don't think the PLA will have any difficulty sweeping aside the Taliban or any military opposition - but that's the easy part. The Taliban will just bide their time wait patiently for China to get frustrated and leave. Even if it takes a few decades...