The Secret Nuke Sub Deal

[Contrarian]

But she wont be comming up before 2015. I'd bet she'd start working actually in 2015 inspite of people saying its 2012.

 

[Neo]

Neo.
As Salam oAlaikum.
I wonder if it makes any difference. I dont think the Indians have bought a nuclear submarine keeping Pakistan in mind. It has always been obvious that Indian designs and vision includes the role of a regional power and , if true, this report points to another step in this direction. The Pak-India scenario with a view to second strike capability has already been covered by the conventional subs that the two nations have.
in any case, Allah forbid, if there is a war in the subcontinent, there may not be a need for second strike!!! i think these arguments are a thing of the past. What Pakistan probably still has not grasped is that the real war is already on going and we are sadly so far behind the times in it. This war is not conventional but is of an economic nature. this is a war that we should focus on not the conventional war , which in my opinion became a dead concept the day Pakistan tightened the last screws on its first nuclear weapon.Your comments would be appreciated.
WaSalam
Araz

Sir,

Indian current modernasation plans and acquisitions may be China centric it still affects all of us including Pakistan. I agree that there's no winner in a nuclear exchange, only losers but India having a second strike capability will assure total distruction of our defence as the nuclear submarine will have the possiblity to stay submerged and undetected well inside our territorial waters.

I agree on the second point regarding conventional and economic war. I'm more hopefull that in this field we'll be able to counter India successfully and close gap to minimum within next 10 to 15 years.

Indian economy took off 15 years ago and grew around 6% for the first 10 years. Its only since 2003-4 that she's accelerated to reach growth > 8%, higher growth will only make India a more expensive market to deal with giving us the opportunity to compete with cheaper products. It worked for China against top trading nations like US, Japan and Germany, it should work for us.

Pakistan is way ahead of India in terms of economic freedom and reforms, its easier to do business in Pakistan than India and we're exploiting this opportunity. Just look at the FDI growth in Pakistan, its been phenomenal! India is in middle of economic boom whereas we're just warming up, the best is yet to come.

 

[Bull]

Indian economy took off 15 years ago and grew around 6% for the first 10 years. Its only since 2003-4 that she's accelerated to reach growth > 8%, higher growth will only make India a more expensive market to deal with giving us the opportunity to compete with cheaper products. It worked for China against top trading nations like US, Japan and Germany, it should work for us.

Thats not true. China grew for more than 6% for 3-4 decades and now at more than 10% , how come their products are still cheap? While Indian products become costly after just 2 decades of growth.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Thats not true. China grew for more than 6% for 3-4 decades and now at more than 10% , how come their products are still cheap? While Indian products become costly after just 2 decades of growth.

Currency manipulation? Isn't that one of the biggest irritants in U.S-China trade relations, the lack of adjustment in the yuan to reflect China's economic growth? I also remember reading an article a few moths ago that expressed concerns from some businessmen in India that the rupee was too strong, and the trend would end up making Indian products more expensive. So there is truth to what Neo says, provided India does not follow China's example on currency.

 

[josh21x]

Sir,

Indian current modernasation plans and acquisitions may be China centric it still affects all of us including Pakistan. I agree that there's no winner in a nuclear exchange, only losers but India having a second strike capability will assure total distruction of our defence as the nuclear submarine will have the possiblity to stay submerged and undetected well inside our territorial waters.

I agree on the second point regarding conventional and economic war. I'm more hopefull that in this field we'll be able to counter India successfully and close gap to minimum within next 10 to 15 years.

Indian economy took off 15 years ago and grew around 6% for the first 10 years. Its only since 2003-4 that she's accelerated to reach growth > 8%, higher growth will only make India a more expensive market to deal with giving us the opportunity to compete with cheaper products. It worked for China against top trading nations like US, Japan and Germany, it should work for us.

Pakistan is way ahead of India in terms of economic freedom and reforms, its easier to do business in Pakistan than India and we're exploiting this opportunity. Just look at the FDI growth in Pakistan, its been phenomenal! India is in middle of economic boom whereas we're just warming up, the best is yet to come.

You need to look up economics a tad bit more.
Pakistan economy is no way following a postive trend in the long term sense.

 

[solid snake]

Sir,
Indian current modernasation plans and acquisitions may be China centric it still affects all of us including Pakistan. I agree that there's no winner in a nuclear exchange, only losers but India having a second strike capability will assure total distruction of our defence as the nuclear submarine will have the possiblity to stay submerged and undetected well inside our territorial waters.

What if we sink this submarine first and then launch several hundred nukes at India?

 

[Neo]

Thats not true. China grew for more than 6% for 3-4 decades and now at more than 10% , how come their products are still cheap? While Indian products become costly after just 2 decades of growth.

AM already answered you in #19 mate, the yuan is heavily under valued and unlike India China has an export oriented economy heavily dominated by cheap consumergoods and semipreparates.
Efficient infrastructure is another reason Chinese success.

 

[Bushroda]

I also remember reading an article a few moths ago that expressed concerns from some businessmen in India that the rupee was too strong, and the trend would end up making Indian products more expensive.

Concern was over sharp & quick appreciation of rupee & not the value of rupee being too strong. When a company allocates funds for the project they earmark a certain amount towards the project. So if currency appreciates before the end of the project, it escalates the cost of project. So there can be a big difference between the allocated fund & final bill.

 

[IceCold]

What if we sink this submarine first and then launch several hundred nukes at India?

Seriously dude if by that you mean a joke, its ok otherwise you are seriously out of your mind. Do u think India will be waiting to be nuked by pakistan. As soon as a nuke is fired from either side other will know about it, it just happens to be who has the second strike capability. I believe strongly that pakistan although it does not have a no first nuclear use policy, still should have a second strike capability in case if ever india changes her mind about no nuclear first use.

 

[Bushroda]

What if we sink this submarine first and then launch several hundred nukes at India?

To launch several hundred nukes at the same precision time would need an operation of the most clandestine nature. Pakistan hasn't got missile silos to keep the nukes in everready state. It would need to mate the warhead with the launchers & deploy them. With several hundred eyes watching you in the sky it would be a gargantuan task. If from any quarter the news leaks, it would invite an attack of massive scale not just from India but also maybe Israel, US, Nato.

 

[IceCold]

If from any quarter the news leaks, it would invite an attack of massive scale not just from India but also maybe Israel, US, Nato.

About israel i'm not sure, why in the hell would nato and US would fire nukes on pakistan in case nuclear war breaks between two countries......its just utter foolishness to think that some one else will get engaged between the conflict of two countries and that too a nuclear conflict.
Firing so many nuclear weapons at the same time is not possible for either of the two countries and if so many nukes are being fired and according to you US and nato joins too in it, do you think that it will not effect other countries who are not part of this conflict ( russia China ) and they will stay quiet. You are talking about a nuclear third world war.

 

[Bushroda]

About israel i'm not sure, why in the hell would nato and US would fire nukes on pakistan in case nuclear war breaks between two countries......its just utter foolishness to think that some one else will get engaged between the conflict of two countries and that too a nuclear conflict.
Firing so many nuclear weapons at the same time is not possible for either of the two countries and if so many nukes are being fired and according to you US and nato joins too in it, do you think that it will not effect other countries who are not part of this conflict ( russia China ) and they will stay quiet. You are talking about a nuclear third world war.

I said an attack of massive scale and not a nuclear attack from US, Nato & Israel. I don't think they would want to unleash the same havoc that they would want to avoid in the first place. A nuclear war wouldn't just unplug the lid from the no-use of nuclear weapons during war but will also have serious environment effects at global scale. So, there is every reason to believe that they would be involved in dismantling the entire Pakistani machienery that would enable the launch of nukes.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Concern was over sharp & quick appreciation of rupee & not the value of rupee being too strong. When a company allocates funds for the project they earmark a certain amount towards the project. So if currency appreciates before the end of the project, it escalates the cost of project. So there can be a big difference between the allocated fund & final bill.

That may be a concern as well, but its a short term one. The article I read was looking at the issue in terms of a strong rupee effecting India's competitiveness in exports over the long term. However even those concerns can be offset by improvements in efficiency, productivity and quality by incorporating better technology and reorganizing and adapting where necessary. Germany is the worlds largest exporter despite having a strong currency and high labor costs.

This is not the original article I read, but I came across it coincidentally today.

India’s export growth slows to 18.5 per cent
Analysts attribute it to sharp appreciation of rupee​

Tuesday, September 04, 2007
NEW DELHI: India’s growth in the value of its exports slowed to 18.5 per cent in July, the government said on Monday, suggesting the rupee’s appreciation in recent months was beginning to hurt exporters, The Times of India reported.

Exports totaled $12.4 billion in July compared with $10.5 billion in the same month a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said in a provisional update. Exports growth averaged 18.2 per cent between April and July, the first four months of the current fiscal year.

Both the monthly and year-to-date growth is off the pace of the 25 per cent increase in exports seen in the fiscal year ended March 2007, and slower than the 28 per cent growth target the government has set for this fiscal year.

The ministry’s update did not elaborate on factors behind the slowdown, but analysts attributed it to a sharp appreciation of the rupee that dents price competitiveness of Indian products in the world market.

“We are beginning to see the impact of a stronger rupee,” said Ram Upendra Das, a New Delhi-based economist. The rupee rose nearly 7 per cent against the US dollar during the April-June quarter and is hovering around a nine-year high. The higher rupee also reduces the foreign exchange earnings of exporters since most export earnings are denominated in dollars.

Monday’s data showed imports grew faster than exports and rose to $17.5 billion in July, up 20.4 per cent from a year ago. As a result, the country’s trade deficit widened further. The trade figures do not include export and import of services, such as the outsourcing jobs done by Indiaís information technology companies.

India’s export growth slows to 18.5 per cent

An 18.5 percent growth rate is still quite impressive, but the article reflects the point Neo was making.

The following article explores both the positive and negative aspects of the strength of the rupee.
India's strong rupee | Economist.com

 

[Bull]

Indian economy took off 15 years ago and grew around 6% for the first 10 years. Its only since 2003-4 that she's accelerated to reach growth > 8%, higher growth will only make India a more expensive market to deal with giving us the opportunity to compete with cheaper products. It worked for China against top trading nations like US, Japan and Germany, it should work for us.

AM already answered you in #19 mate, the yuan is heavily under valued and unlike India China has an export oriented economy heavily dominated by cheap consumergoods and semipreparates. Efficient infrastructure is another reason Chinese success.

India isnt gettting costly, inflation is still around 4% while the GDP is growing at above 9%. Now compare those figures to pakistan's a 8% GDP growth rate to 7-9% (?) infaltion. Whos getting costly?

 

[Bushroda]

That may be a concern as well, but its a short term one. The article I read was looking at the issue in terms of a strong rupee effecting India's competitiveness in exports over the long term. However even those concerns can be offset by improvements in efficiency, productivity and quality by incorporating better technology and reorganizing and adapting where necessary. Germany is the worlds largest exporter despite having a strong currency and high labor costs.

Rupee appreciation at its current level hasn't made India any less competitive since costs of goods & services in India are still much cheaper. The only problem is the discrepancy between the allocated amount of fund and the final bill. If I place an order for 10000 automobile components from an Indian firm I make an estimate based on current curreny conversion rate. Once the deal is sealed, the manufacturer establishes the production line, puts the team together & starts with the production. Once the goods are ready in say 6 months time, the final bill is prepared based in rupee value. Now, if within these 6 months, the local currency has appreciated then it would escalate the cost in dollar terms & this could be way above the estimated amount & the fund allocated for the project.

This uncertainty is what is cause of panic.