The Road to War (Part III: The Balance of Power in a Multi-Polar World)

[Sanchez]

Vietnam is the most aggressive and successful player on SCS. They have through the years built structures on various rocks and establish oil drilling platforms. The oil/gas output is believed to have reached 30% of Viet GDP. Most of these rigs were positioned outside the 9-dotted lines claimed by China. The oil/gas reserve under SCS has become Vietnamese dream of quick bucks and easy rich.

Things are different now because Viets are pushing their oil drilling to the edge of 9-dotted lines and Phillipines becomes more assertive and disturbing. The core interests of Viet and Phils are obviously economic and yet they are encouraged by US one way or another to counter China. The simplicity and intention of US to maintain freedom of passage or navigation is just a white lie. The real aim is to prevent China to gain control of the resources and the area.

China's strategy has been to push forward things with low profile and within her ability. In 1988, PLA took over a few reefs from Vietnamese. And now China is enlarge the land area of some reefs to use em as military base. Soon China would start to drill oil out of the bottom of SCS. China has since long time back called for joint development of exploring the SCS resources regardless of sovereignty issues. It is funny that Viets and Pinoys want everything for themselves.

As to US China believes that US is using SCS issue as a tool to ally a new front of anti-China sentiments. Political statements, military aid and various support of US to the countries in the area has worsen the situation. Does US really want Vietnam or Phillipines start a fight with China and then join the fight to defeat China? My answer is no. But wth is US government doing?

As to Japan Japan's Abe is striving to align Vietnam, Phillipines and even India in order to form a anti-China front. Japan's attitude on SCS was the most unacceptable among Chinese. The first foreign invasion of SCS was French from its colony Vietnam in 1933 that became a diplomatic row between Rupulic China and France. Japan invaded SCS in WWII and they defeated the French. After WWII Republic China sent a navy fleet and recovered the islands in SCS. If Japan insists to get involved in SCS rows, in Chinese eyes, it'd be time to solve our old debt with Japan once for all. PLA has certainly got the capability to send the substantial Japanese naval ships into the bottom of SCS. It'd be best that Japan shuts up and stays away.

Chinese leadership has been critisized as being coward on Diaoyu and SCS issues in China. The present day Chinese can not tolerate China's government position on the unsolved territory issues left from times China was humiliated, and majority believe that these issues are being internationally manipulated by the US not for a just purpose but purely anti-China.

Personally I don't see lots of hope for a peaceful settlement on SCS. Maybe we are all still under developed humans and we need a fight.

 

[Edison Chen]

With its geographic and psychological distance to the SCS, Washington may be the least willing among this coalition’s members. This may be a factor that prevents the coalition from unilaterally escalating the conflict, but it may also be a factor that encourages China to underestimate the resolve of its rivals and become dangerously provocative.

Well I do not take Vietnam's role too seriously, any of Vietnam's attempts to internationalize the SCS issue will eventually fail, the ASEAN members do not act uniformly, China had good relations or highly interdependent business cooperations with some South East Asian countries, they will not even ever to think about to support Vietnam's claim, not worth, I believe most Chinese think so too. While some Vietnamese(not all) still cling to the delusion that they will prevail, this is really strange to me. Japan is a special problem, we have feud for a several centuries, this is none of others' business. The opinion of US is the only thing that matters, last month China and the US reached some agreements to avoid conflicts(I read the news but can't find it now), like military action mutual notification mechanism and seas and military security code of conduct, I personally think this is a good start if I am not too naive. US won't risk her interest to initiate a global war with China at the moment, the situation has not come to such an irretrievable degree, I believe the new type of relationship between great powers will be the model of handling international relations peacefully, as Chinese are extremely good at or love to handling relations with others, this is part of our culture, under Confucius culture we believe "harmony is precious", so the delusion that Chinese are agreessive is utterly biased, the West talk this like they didn't ever invade other countries, the Europeans once had colonies all over the world far from their home, while China is just sitting right there in our home yard. The US also need to show some good gestures and leave Asia some space.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

Well I do not take Vietnam's role too seriously, any of Vietnam's attempts to internationalize the SCS issue will eventually fail, the ASEAN members do not act uniformly, China had good relations or highly interdependent business cooperations with some South East Asian countries, they will not even ever to think about to support Vietnam's claim, not worth, I believe most Chinese think so too. While some Vietnamese(not all) still cling to the delusion that they will prevail, this is really strange to me. Japan is a special problem, we have feud for a several centuries, this is none of others' business. The opinion of US is the only thing that matters, last month China and the US reached some agreements to avoid conflicts(I read the news but can't find it now), like military action mutual notification mechanism and seas and military security code of conduct, I personally think this is a good start if I am not too naive. US won't risk her interest to initiate a global war with China at the moment, the situation has not come to such an irretrievable degree, I believe the new type of relationship between great powers will be the model of handling international relations peacefully, as Chinese are extremely good at or love to handling relations with others, this is part of our culture, under Confucius culture we believe "harmony is precious", so the delusion that Chinese are agreessive is utterly biased, the West talk this like they didn't ever invade other countries, the Europeans once had colonies all over the world far from their home, while China is just sitting right there in our home yard. The US also need to show some good gestures and leave Asia some space.

Agreed, I am cautiously optimistic. And the US will not intervene in the SCS on the behalf of non-allies like Vietnam, that's certain.