Scrutinizing the details
Now, let’s come to the assertions made by Shekhar Gupta in his article.
Point 1:
In the Rajouri-Mendhar sector air skirmish, a day after the IAF’s successful Balakot strikes, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) was able to create surprise and local superiority—technological and numerical—in a chosen battlefield. It struck in daylight when least expected, and perfectly timed the changeover of IAF AWAC patrols. The outnumbered IAF pilots (12 aircraft of three vastly different types) scrambled from various bases showed the presence of mind not to walk into the ambush set for them. But they failed to deliver a deterrent punishment on PAF.
The above point makes multiple assertions. Let’s look at them one-by-one.
(a) Surprise? What Surprise?
The one who attacks has the initiative. This is a fundamental rule of warfare. The defender has to react to this initiative. On 27th February 2019, when Pakistan Air Force (PAF) attempted to bomb targets on the Indian side of Line-of-Control (LOC), it had the initiative. But did it have surprise? Every bit of information available about this air-battle says an emphatic ‘NO’.
Before I answer this point in detail, here’s a brief introduction about the Indian Air Force’s Air Defence Ground Environment System (ADGES).
ADGES consists of various types of radars with varying range; the longest range radars have a range in excess of 1,000 kilometres while most others operate in 100-500 km range bracket. These radars are a mix of static and transportable radars and are organized in a manner so as to not leave a gap in radar coverage. To this mix, you can add airborne platforms like A-50 ‘Phalcon’ AWACS (Air Warning and Control System) and Netra AEW&CS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System). Another unique element is the AEROSTAT balloon mounted radar – a radar mounted on a tethered helium-filled balloon which rises 20,000+ feet in height and gives coverage in excess of 200 kilometres. Because of its height, it has more depth, is not constrained by earth’s curvature and can pick-up very low-level flying targets as well.
India’s main long range radar and back-bone of ADGES: THD-1955. It has a range in excess of 1,000 km but is generally operated at 40%-50% of peak output.
PSM-33 Mk2 Radar – A mobile radar. This is Indian enhanced version of French TRS-2215 radar
Netra – DRDO developed indigenous AEW&C system
IL-76 mounted Phalcon AWACS system
Tethered balloon mounted radar system (representative image)
In a major overhaul of ADGES and to make it more effective, IAF has implemented network-centric Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS). Under IACCS, information from various radars/sensors is pooled through high-density fibre optic cables into a node and a single, consolidated air-picture is generated. And this is not limited to only defence radars but civilian radars as well. By 2015, IAF had already established 5 nodes of the IACCS in the western sector facing Pakistan at Barnala (Punjab), Wadsar (Gujarat), Aya Nagar (Delhi), Jodhpur (Rajasthan) and Ambala (Haryana). Four other major nodes and ten sub-nodes are in the process of being set-up.
To get a sense of depth/range and overlapping radar coverage of IAF, please see the map below. The red-dot is centred on Barnala (Punjab). Apart from being an IACCS node, it is also home to Indian’s first tethered balloon based radar system. And I think a THD-1955 radar is also located in the vicinity. Other points are the probable location of other static and mobile radar units (which in IAF ‘s language are known as Signal Units). The mobile radar units ( known as Transportable Radar Unit – TRU) are likely to move further west to extend their coverage.
Various circles on the map represent likely radar coverage range from each location. The colour of the circle is the same as the location marker. While the red coloured circle, centred on Barnala (Punjab), shows a coverage with a range of ~400 km, other circles show coverage over a range of ~250 km. From top to bottom, the locations are – Natha Top (Jammu), Jammu, Amritsar, Barnala and Bhisiana (Bhatinda).
The green markers inside Pakistan are major airbases and some satellite bases of Pakistan Air Force. It’s not surprising that IAF radar network picked-up PAF fighters the moment they were in air from their bases in central and south Pakistan Punjab.
Representative image of Indian radar coverage
Information from such overlapping coverage, consisting of multiple sensors, comes to an IACCS node like Barnala. Representative image of an IACCS node is given below. It shows a bank of operators and ground controllers seeing a consolidated air-picture over a vast geography.
IACCS Node (representative image)
Given the overlapping radar coverage which can see considerable distance inside Pakistan, it can be construed that IAF became aware of the PAF strike package from very early on.
Let’s consider the evidence which confirms the above and contradicts the assertion about IAF being surprised by PAF. A
report on 25th March 2019 by respected journalist and defence analyst, Nitin Gokhale, had the following information:
“
Pakistan first closed its civilian airspace and disallowed any commercial traffic around 8.45-9 am. In any case, Indian fighter controllers, sitting at a secure control room in Punjab and watching an array of inputs from multiple on the ground and airborne radars, were keeping a close watch on the Pakistani airspace that morning. Around 9.30 am, the IAF fighter controllers noticed at least two dozen PAF fighters getting airborne in a span of 15 minutes. Twelve of the PAF fighters appeared headed to the south of Pir Panjal range (Jammu, Poonch, Nowshera), four towards Srinagar, while four others were airborne in the area opposite Anoopgarh/Suchetgarh in Rajasthan.
The Indian flight control centre, aware of the danger, quickly alerted four fighters—two Su-30s and two Mirage-2000s—deployed on combat air patrol (CAP) in the area south of Pir Panjal and simultaneously ordered two MiG-21 Bisons, based in Srinagar to scramble. One of the MiGs was piloted by Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman”
Long story short, PAF simply did not have any surprise element. In fact, Indian sensors were able to detect the PAF fighters the moment they took off from their airbases. Considering that these Pakistani fighters took-off from air bases which are 200+ km from the international border tells you how deep the Indian radar network can scan and detect enemy air-activity.
In fact, Indian ground controllers had a good 10-12 minute lead on the PAF’s strike package. Consider this data-point from an
article by Air Vice Marshal Arjun Subramaniam:
Into this melee came in four MiG-21 Bisons, scrambled from the Operational Ready Platform (ORP) on both runways ends at Srinagar and controlled by a GCI radar. Covering the almost 200 km in about 10-12 minutes at top speeds of between 950-1000 km/hr, the lead Bison with Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman would have arrived on the scene just as three F-16s appear to have barely crossed the LC, impeded in no small measure by the intense BVR manoeuvring with the Sukhois
What the above tells you is that IAF had a complete picture of the evolving and dynamic air-situation. If anything, IAF had a lead time of 10+ minutes to scramble additional jets and position them judiciously at the right place to counter the PAF aggression.
Also, if you combine the information about IACCS node at Barnala (Punjab) with what is mentioned in the excerpt above, Indian fighter controllers most likely sitting in Barnala were overseeing air-battle over 300+ km away in Naoshera-Rajouri! This is another vindication of network-centric nature of our ADGES which allows information to be pooled from various resources at a single node and generate a composite air-picture, independent of the location of the node.
So, no, PAF did not have any element of surprise on 27th February 2019, like how IAF had on 26th February 2019 when it bombed targets in Azad Kashmir and at Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan.
If anything, it proves that Indian air-defence network worked as per expectation in a real air combat situation and this situational awareness allowed IAF controllers sitting in Barnala (Punjab) to alert Indian fighters and also position them favourably with respect to PAF strike package. They also gave the scramble call and got between 4-6 Mig-21 Bison airborne, one of which shot down the PAF dual seat F-16D.
Contrary to opinion, it is PAF which got surprised by the presence of IAF Mig-21 Bison on their tail.
(b) The Mythical Superiority
The next point made by Shekhar Gupta is about the numerical and technical superiority of PAF strike package. Let’s look at these two points separately.
(b.1) Numerical Superiority
As I said earlier, the initiative always rests with the attacker. In this case, since PAF knew it would be running the gauntlet with IAF on high alert, it had no option but to create a large strike package consisting of actual and decoy sub-packages.
But what exactly did PAF achieve with its supposedly numerical superiority? The answer to that question is – NOTHING!
A smaller IAF force of 12 fighters was able to repulse a larger force of 20 fighters. Contrary to their claim, PAF was not able to hit any military target because of the intervention of IAF fighters. And this numerical superiority argument becomes still more absurd, and actually in India’s favour when we consider some additional data-points from other reports.
For example, if we refer to the air-battle map and the following data-point from an
article by Air Vice-Marshal Arjun Subramaniam (retd):
“The first engagement took place in the south with two Mirage 2000s intercepting a large package of more than eight aircraft under extremely effective AWACS control in the airspace high over Jammu. Armed with beyond-visual-range (BVR) missile MICA missiles and likely to have been the upgraded Mirage 2000s, they would have locked on first to the JF-17s, duelling with them at long distances and conversing among themselves as the battle progressed ‘going hot’ and ‘going cold’, or ‘extending’ and ‘exiting’—all of it typical fighter pilot jargon across the world that indicates different stages of BVR combat. Frustrated at being unable to clear the Mirage 5s to proceed towards their intended target, the PAF formation would have turned back—not something unheard of or unprofessional—living to fight another day is a wise strategy in tough times. One deduction from this engagement if the forces painted are right is the clear superiority of the upgraded Mirage 2000 over the JF-17!”
As per the above assessment, 2 x Mirage-2000 (Upgraded), equipped with advanced MICA missiles, was able to foil the attack by 08 PAF fighters! The PAF fighter package consisted of 04 x Mirage-V and 04 x JF-17. This ratio gets further skewed because another package of 04 x Mirage-III was most probably not launched on their target because of the inability of the above package to get through.
French Mirage-2000-5 equipped with 06 x MICA missiles. Missile mounted just below leading edge of aircraft’s left wing is MICA-RF (active radar homing) while balance 05 are MICA-IR (missile with imaging infra-red seeker)
Family of MICA missiles – on top is the active radar homing MICA-RF and lower on is MICA-IR, which uses imaging infra-red to hit enemy aircraft
Though, we’ve another recent report
[5]which says that Mirage-III aircraft did launch H-4 Stand-of-Weapon (SOW) from 50 kilometre within Pakistan but because of intervention by IAF, these failed to hit their target.
South African Denel H-4 Stand-off-Weapon – this was the main air-to-ground weapon carried by PAF Mirage-III and Mirage-V to hit Indian targets
Images of remnants of H-4 SOW from Azad Kashmir. PAF Mirages most likely jettisoned them in panic when faced with threat from IAF’s Mirage-2000 (upgraded)
Either way, in one of the engagements, 2 IAF Mirage-2000 (upgraded) took on and deterred 12 PAF fighters! A defender to attacker ratio of 1:6.
In second engagement, which took place up north towards Poonch and Rajouri sector, 08 x F-16 were up against 02 x Su-30 MKI and 06 x Mig-21 Bison. The reason I say only 02 Su-30 MKI and not 04 as originally mentioned because of this data-point from the same article by Air Vice-Marshal Arjun Subramaniam (retd) which has been mentioned above:
“To the north was a duel between four SU-30MKIs and eight F-16s. Two of the Sukhois could have been in a swing role and towards the end of their combat endurance (a characteristic that allows it to switch between roles albeit with a marginal reduction in effectiveness in the second role) while the other two would have been in full air defence configuration”
Of the 04 x Su-30 MKI’s in the air, 02 x Su-30 MKI was low on endurance (must’ve been in the air for a long time) and most probably did not take an active part in the battle.
So, in the end, 02 x Su-30 MKI and 06 Mig-21 Bison (some reports say 04 x Mig-21 Bison were involved, which is more likely) were involved in the duel with 08 x F-16s. And created enough threat for F-16s because of which they missed hitting their targets even with laser-guided bombs (LGB). Not only that, PAF ended up losing an F-16D to Indian Mig-21 Bison.
Further evidence of how IAF thwarted the PAF plans in air-battle played is mentioned below. Taken from Nitin Gokhale’s article mentioned earlier.
An Indian analysis has also shown that when Pakistan launched the short retaliatory strike only three or four aircraft including three F-16s crossed the LoC and came only three or four km inside Indian territory before they were challenged by the IAF interceptors. As a senior IAF officer puts it: “While three or four aircraft came into Indian territory in an offensive mode, 21 aircraft were in the total package only for support. They were all trying to protect those three F-16 aircraft.”
This ties with other narratives which say that F-16s entered Indian territory while Mirage-III/V dropped stand-of-weapons from well within Pakistan. Pakistan Air Force was trying to get some hits on Indian ground targets and seemed least bit interested to press home its numerical advantage and take on IAF fighters.
Superiority, anyone?
(b.2) Technical Superiority
Using the above break-up of forces on both sides, it is evident that only 08 x F-16 on Pakistan’s side were of any match to 04 x Su-30 MKI and 02 x Mirage-2000 (upgraded). PAF’s JF-17 in current form is roughly equivalent to Indian Mig-21 Bison. As for Mirage-III and Mirages-V, these upgrade machines are also on the same league as Mig-21 Bison with the difference that PAF’s Mirage-III and Mirage-V have received upgrades which primarily optimizes their air-to-ground capability. This upgrade allowed them to carry the Denel H-4 Stand-of-Weapon.
As the outcome of air-battle over Kashmir shows, it was a smaller Indian fighter force which deterred a much larger PAF force.
So, which technical superiority are we talking about here?
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