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The power sector tariff dilemma

Bro seriously, for the nth time.

View attachment 733610

The orange one is FO.


The most important point why didn't you adjust/raise tariff based on your own introduced generation cost ?


Even if we take your point of view that no one was willing to invest was your own doing no? Who was responsible for such miserable economic ratings?
It was a writing on wall we were going to go bankrupt, based on imminent BOP crisis.
The problem started with Musharraf, WAPDA was unable to pay the IPPs threatened that they will call the GoP Guarantee. At this point, Ehteshab Bureau was unleashed on them, and rather than dealing with issues commercially, they were threatened and fake cases were created against them. Eventually under pressure of various foreign governments, the GoP backed off and asked for a commercial renegotiation of the very rate that it had itself offered. Not left with much choice, most IPPs provided some rate reductions and continued to run the plant. The country that was lauded as having the best power policy in the developing world overnight became a pariah in the international energy investors community.

In 2002 Policy, almost all projects were done by local investors. This time all lenders were also local since no foreign lender was interested. The payment situation did not get any better. In 2011-12, the backlog of payments had ballooned to a point that most IPPs started shutting down intermittently. WAPDA (by now NTDC) first agreed in writing that it would not penalize the IPPs for these shut downs, but after a few months changed its mind and decided to impose penalties for shutdowns, even when these shutdowns were occurring because of its own payment defaults. At this point, the 2002 Policy IPPs called the GoP Guarantees and went to Supreme Court. The GoP went into default, acknowledged that it owed the money, but told the SC that it did not have the resources, and needed more time. Eventually the IPPs agreed to an installment plan. But this worked only for old payments, while new bills were being generated, and accumulated again. The PML-N Government cleared these past bills in June 2013, for power already consumed 1-2 years before that. The Auditor Generals’ report about this matter does not question that IPP payables per se, but rather questions the internal procedure followed by GoP in paying the subsidy to NTDC, but it does raise some issues that show either lack of understanding of the signed contracts or expresses desire to re-open the agreements a second time around. In December 2014, many IPPs once again called on GoP Guarantees because of mounting receivables, and the GoP paid them some portion, and promised to clear all amounts in a few months. The IPPs withdrew their Guarantee calls but this GoP promise was once again breached.

Similarly, NTDC has, facetiously enough, disputed all prior bills without giving the specifics as to what is against the contract, even the ones that it has verified and paid, to avoid the possibility of any GoP Guarantee call being made.

So with this history, who is the third generation investor, since in the current round of thermal and hydel projects under 2015 Power Policy, with the exception of one, no prior investor of 2002 Policy or 1994 Power Policy is doing a project. It is our Chinese friends, who have been good allies of Pakistan, but this friendship is not blind when it comes to commercial matters. In addition to GoP Guarantees, this new round of projects had to be given many more protections than even the 2002 Policy projects. Two of them are telling: (i) there is a funded cash escrow amount of PKR [50] billion from GoP since GoP Guarantee does not seem to be sufficient, and (ii) what was previously a protection in law with NTDC chose to violate it, has now been converted to a contractual commitment: if a Chinese owned plant shuts down because of non-payment, NTDC cannot impose LDs and still has to pay fixed charges. Putting aside the discrimination angle this creates amongst different types of investors, these two changes demanded by Chinese investors in the contracts clearly point to the sordid history of disregard for sanctity of contracts.
 
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The capacity payment per unit in the last year was around Rs. 6.7 for every unit which was 40% less in 2017, because of currency devaluation by this government it jumped by 40%.

View attachment 733622

Why are pti hydro power agreements ≥50% cheaper as compared to PMLN?

This government has awarded 7.9 cents(Rs.12)/unit to HPPs (95% of which is Capacity Charges, 5% M&O charges)
While PMLN government awarded highest ever tariff to NJHPP at Rs8.50/ unit, this government renegotiated and offered the reference tariff of Rs14.59/kWh for the first 20 years, which will then drop to Rs5.10/kWh for the remaining 30 years.

Thank you for your post bro. This may be one of your few posts with clarity and substance. Enjoyed it.

First point you mentioned is absolutely true. It exactly comes out to 6.67Rs /kWh. In year 2019-20 at overall cost of Rs860b.

IMG_2713.JPG


It is not hard to calculate the capacity payment per unit moving on to 2021-23. It is increasing roughly at a pace of 20%. If we take into account the consumption increase of 4% (which is highly unlikely as necessary tariff increase is inversely proportional to residential consumption, further more the trend of captive power and solar installation in industries is growing exponentially due to higher tariff from cement, textile captive gas generation expansion, solar installation in textiles e.g. artististic milleniers or auto Indus motors.)
This is exactly what I am talking about. The capacity payments comes to around roughly
Rs 7-8/ kwh in 2020-21
Rs 9-10/kwh in 2021-22

Rs 11+ /kwh in 2022-23


Second point you replied to.
1) NJ power tariff revision was filed before Pti government took charge, It is an old project probably a decade. And is a subsidiary of WAPDA.

Screenshot_20210413-194127.png



The power tariff as of 2019 end approved stands at Rs 9.11/kwh. Correct me if I am wrong.

Screenshot_20210413-205043.png

Screenshot_20210413-205035.png


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Now coming on to actual hydro power projects. Suki kunari (11.6 cents) vs let's say Kohala or Azad Pattan. (around 8 cents). The tariff is in cents not Rs.

Screenshot_20210413-191516.png
 
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Thank you for your post bro. This may be one of your few posts with clarity and substance. Enjoyed it.

First point you mentioned is absolutely true. It exactly comes out to 6.67Rs /kWh. In year 2019-20 at overall cost of Rs860b.

View attachment 733712

It is not hard to calculate the capacity payment per unit moving on to 2021-23. It is increasing roughly at a pace of 20%. If we take into account the consumption increase of 4% (which is highly unlikely as necessary tariff increase is inversely proportional to residential consumption, further more the trend of captive power and solar installation in industries is growing exponentially due to higher tariff from cement, textile captive gas generation expansion, solar installation in textiles e.g. artististic milleniers or auto Indus motors.)
This is exactly what I am talking about. The capacity payments comes to around roughly
Rs 7-8/ kwh in 2020-21
Rs 9-10/kwh in 2021-22

Rs 11+ /kwh in 2022-23


Second point you replied to.
1) NJ power tariff revision was filed before Pti government took charge, It is an old project probably a decade. And is a subsidiary of WAPDA.

View attachment 733713



The power tariff as of 2019 end approved stands at Rs 9.11/kwh. Correct me if I am wrong.

View attachment 733725
View attachment 733726

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Now coming on to actual hydro power projects. Suki kunari (11.6 cents) vs let's say Kohala or Azad Pattan. (around 8 cents). The tariff is in cents not Rs.

View attachment 733724

This was the final terril awarded to SK Hydro.
1618380027684.png
 
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Yes the final tariff awarded for SK comes at 8.8 cents / kwh.
Kohala comes at 7.8 cents / kwh.

Levelized for 30 years.

It is not the difference of 40%, plus PTI government decreased the tariff nominally because some of input costs are in PKR, like labour charges, water use charges WHT etc., now you can buy more rupees by one USD compared by that time.
 
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