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The possibility of the pakistan army defeating the taliban?

Taliban for all practical means from this forum is designated in two parties, the pakistani taliban and afghan taliban.

The official stance of pakistan is that government of pakistan is at war against all forms of terrorism (except kashimiri terrorists).

The claim of quite a few member here is pakistani taliban is funded by Raw/Cia/Mossad/etc. hence are attacking pakistani assets.

Another claim is pakistani military or some of it's junior level cadre are sympathetic to the Afghan taliban who were once brother in arms.

Afghan Talban:
To understanding taliban and it's pakistani connection, we need to revisit the soviet pullout and outbreak of civil war in afghanistan. Numerous Ex-Mujhahideen commanders post soviet withdrawal found themselves in position of power and tremendous infighting had started. Ahmed shah massoud, Ahmed rashid dostum, Jalaluddin Hekmetyar, Haqqani, Abdul Rahim Wardak and Abdul Haq were few of the influential commanders of that time.

With political turmoil, a new leader Mohd Mullah Omar rose and used religious fundamentalism to futher his reach. ISI recognized, this opportunity and hordes of volunteers/students (talibs) from madarsas, most Afghan refugees and a significant amount from pakistani tribal regions (all operating under the umbrella of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam funded by saudi oil money ) joined the effort to dislodge the communist backed government in kabul to form the so called Islamic Utopia. ISI also embedded it's military advisers and provided significant training, funding and logistical support to this effort. ISI brokered deal between this new emerging group with military factions of gulbudeen hekymatyaar and jalaudeen haqanni (all pashtun organisations). Peter Tomsen stated that up until 9/11 Pakistani military and ISI officers along with thousands of regular Pakistani armed forces personnel had been involved in the fighting in AfghanistanIn 2001 alone, according to several international sources, 28,000-30,000 Pakistani nationals, 14,000-15,000 Afghan Taliban and 2,000-3,000 Al Qaeda militants were fighting against anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan as a roughly 45,000 strong military force.

Ref: Edward Girardet. Killing the Cranes: A Reporter's Journey Through Three Decades of War in Afghanistan (August 3, 2011 ed.)


Taliban forces backed by PA, in the course of 1994, the Taliban took control of 12 of 34 provinces not under central government control, finally attacked kabul and seized control. Ahmed Shah Massoud, the defence minister at that time retreated to Panjshir valley, which in modern history never fell either to the soviets or to the Taliban.

The Taliban, however, suffered a devastating defeat against government forces of the Islamic State under the command of Ahmad Shah Massoud. Pakistan, however, started to provide stronger military support to the Taliban. Many analysts like Amin Saikal describe the Taliban as developing into a proxy force for Pakistan's regional interests. On September 26, 1996, as the Taliban with military support by Pakistan and financial support by Saudi Arabia prepared for another major offensive, Massoud ordered a full retreat from Kabul to continue anti-Taliban resistance in the Hindu Kush mountains instead of engaging in street battles in Kabul. The Taliban entered Kabul on September 27, 1996, and established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan



Post 9/11 Pakistan abandoned the same taliban that it had nurtured and fed for years, but Pakistani military, did know the fact that ISAF forces wouldn't stay in kabul for ever and hence ISI airlifted the most important Taliban/AQ leadership along with pakistani military operators from Konduz (Ref Air lift of evil). Leaders like Mullah omar, Al zawhiri and Bin Laden were unaccounted for. Most of top level AQ leaders that were arrested by both ISI and CIA were not found in afghanistan but in pakistan.

For pakistani military "Afghan Taliban" hols tremendous potential in case of US withdrawal and hence pakistan will not deliberately alienate the surviving leadership of Afghan Taliban.

Pakistani Taliban:

Although not much is clear about this organization, there are some frivolous claims of Pakistanis that "India finances a fundamental muslim organisation that also derives much of it's cadres from some of the groups engaged in kashmir against India". Another claim is "CIA funds the TTP to cause turmoil in pakistan" which is surprising because it seems CIA can operate with impunity targeting pakistani targets at will hence the case for arming an insurgency against pakistan seems farfetched.

A more reasonable understanding might be that, TTP is the lower level cadres of Afghan taliban which was disillusioned by pakistani tactics and brought the islamic utopia concept back to pakistan. For pakistani government taliban doctrine is profitable to export but is impossible to own as pakistani society is a moderate modern progressive islamic society. 1500 year old styled islamic sharia doesn't suit pakistan, and TTP is hell bent on bringing that on, hence now Pakistani military (frontier corp) is trying to engage TTP, where it can diffuse the situation with talks it talks, when that doesn't work out pakistani military goes on the offensive.

The objective of pakistani military wrt to taliban is not to defeat then but to contain them till US/ISAF withdraws from pakistan... once that happen, pakistan will facilitate the return of taliban, both ttp and afghan versions back to it's home ground to dislodge "northern alliance kaffirs!"
 
extract from the latest US intell report to Congress.

"The military this year continued operations in Fata and has forces in place for an operation against anti-Pakistan militants in North Waziristan.

The report notes there were fewer domestic attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan this year than in the previous several years."

further if one reads the SWAT operation posted in the Pakistan's War section, the analysis is certainly different. unfortunately the 'anti-pakistan / anti-pak army bias' of our indian friends is unashamedly obvious in the above posts.
 
Pakistan army has successfully completed operations against militants in the past and there should be no doubt that they can not do so again in the future.

Infact Operation Rahe Nijat was perhaps one of the most difficult operation to be conducted in the urban areas and was even appreciated by the international community.

Apart from our Indian friends who it seems will never be appreciative of our armed forces fight againts terrorists nor shall recognize the achievements rest of the world have recognized the scarifices made by us.

If my memory serves me correct we have launched a number of successful military operations including: Operation Al Mizan, Operation Zalzala, Operations Sher Dil, Rah-e-Haq, and Rah-e-Rast and Operation Rah-e-Nijat.

We shall take care of the rest don't worry about that. It shall just take a bit of time.
 
In ten years since the W0T started, PA has failed to even formulate an effective anti-terrorist strategy and all they do is keep coming up with lame excuses of negotiating peace or botched up COIN ops which create massive causalities on both side. As an institution, the security and intelligence apparatus of Pakistan has completely failed.

The total number of US fatalities in 10 years of Afghan War are 2187 personals which is surprisingly low considering during an identical time frame of WW2 and Afghan-Soviet war, soldiers were killed six digit figures.
 
Has Pakistani army taken any actions against Haqqani network?? gulbudeen Hekmetyaar??

And when discussing taliban, why airlift of konduz????
 
Pakistan is not an enemy of Taliban fighting in Afghanistan but the the enemy of Indian and US funded TTP which has been inserted into pakistan by these countries to destabilize Pakistan and create a situation that Pakistan is an unsafe place and it should be stripped of its Nukes.

Dear Umair86Pk,

How can you ignore mountain of evidence that clearly points to the fact that the TTP pose as much of a threat to the U.S. as they do to Pakistan. They have repeatedly threatened the Pakistani government for working with the U.S. They were clearly against the idea of reopening the NATO supply route through Pakistan. They’ve openly claimed responsibility for targeting the U.S. convoy in the past. You can click on this link and read for yourself: Bin Laden revenge attack: Taliban target US convoy in Peshawar – The Express Tribune

The bottom-line is that the TTP clearly see our nations as a common threat to their evil objectives. They do not wish to see any alliance between our nations. They would much rather see us part ways for the sake of gaining advantage. The facts associated with this situation allow us to see the truth. Anyone who chooses to indulge in conspiracy theories is only shifting the tide in their favor.

Ali Khan
DET, United States Central Command
U.S. Central Command
 
TTP is already defeated, just some final blows required now !!
 
TTP is already defeated, just some final blows required now !!

This is just not correct - what is happening is that the geo-political and domestic political landscape is changing and the TTP is responding to this reality -- it will be a terrible mistake to think we have defeated this menace -- Pakistan have a choice, will they brush this menace under the carpet so to speak or will decide to uncover this totally and let the chips fall where they may - I think the latter course is the better way because it will enable Pakistan to make a genuine change in the way it conducts itself internally and externally.
 
Why having doubts? They have recieved some serious blows and shall keep recieving. Something new is coming for them soon as a gift is in the making for them with love. whcih shall hit their supply lines hard.
 
This is just not correct - what is happening is that the geo-political and domestic political landscape is changing and the TTP is responding to this reality -- it will be a terrible mistake to think we have defeated this menace -- Pakistan have a choice, will they brush this menace under the carpet so to speak or will decide to uncover this totally and let the chips fall where they may - I think the latter course is the better way because it will enable Pakistan to make a genuine change in the way it conducts itself internally and externally.

extremism is growing thats something else, but TTP was reactionary, it got blowing bunches from Pakistan Army...just as we see the Americans leave, this organization will die, as for growing extremism and the possibility of producing new militant fronts against Pakistan, I think that would be decided by international anti-peace forces...
 
.just as we see the Americans leave, this organization will die, as for growing extremism and the possibility of producing new militant fronts against Pakistan, I think that would be decided by international anti-peace forces...


Yes, but we must not be confused about why this organization will cease to function as it once did --- think about the bold part -- You say the TTP was "reactionary" I think you mean to say that it was formed in reaction to - but if this is true that it was formed in reaction to - lets ask, reaction to what? The usual answer is that it was in reaction to US forces in Afghanistan, but why then has it's sole function been to attack Pakistan and not the NATO forces in Afghanistan?

Now some say that TTP is a creature of foreign powers -- but clearly it has domestic political support, here it s instructive to look at the role of the Jamaat e Islami, Jamaat e Ulema e Islam and PML-N, are these also creatures of foreign powers? - Clearly they do not have to be creatures of a foreign power to be in alliance with foreign powers (may be in the Arabian peninsula??)

If Pakistan do not militarily defeat the TTP, these same domestic and international political coalitions will maintain the ability and the proven will, to bend the Pakistani state and nation to their will -- and in doing so, defeat the very purpose organizations such as PTI exist for.
 
In my view, the coming years will be difficult for Pakistan, if we wouldn't act smartly. As the US will leave Afghanistan, there is a real chance of the large number of elements fighting there turning against Pakistan. Already we have cleared Swat and South Waziristan but the main base of TTP, North Waziristan is intact. Still 50,000 or so people daily crossing over Durand Line daily. Still large number of Anti-Pakistan elements are enjoying safe heavens in Afghanistan. The challenges are huge, and one thing that Pakistan must realize now that there are no friends in this WoT. Taliban and US both are not trustworthy. Pakistan will have to fight this war on its own. And the very first step is to seal the Af-Pak border. Pakistan need a new Border Security force like Punjab Rangers for Durand Line. Its not easy task, but if we start today, we can fence the border in 3,4 years may be.
 
hello, I am gathering research and writing a paper on the possibility of the pakistan army defeating the taliban. I know thier are some highly well rounded and educated people out there and I was wondering what you all thought. Providing sources would be greatly appreciated.:flame:

I can help you, sir, but please post your research question and the direction of your research; is it opinion orientated, historically grounded prediction, strategy paper, psychology, political? The generic nature makes it difficult to answer you fruitfully.
 
I'm not a fan of fencing the border, instead Pakistan should open multiple official crossing stations or "ports" - the Afghan economy is a part of the Pakistani economy, it must be thought of and cared for (protected) in that way. Though I very much agree with you that the Talib and the US and Gulf and Peninsula arabs are not to be trusted, though we must realize that these function in partnership with political parties in Pakistan - so the only way to counter these is to be very honest with and to be clear to the Pakistani public - I hope whatever govt comes after this election, will make it their business to set up, create a framework for a Pakistan which is transparent and is very clear about what are Pakistani interests and what are not
 

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