The Pak-US strategic dialogue

[karan.1970]

In my view, the Afghanistan issue weighs more heavily on Pakistani Brass's mind than the Kashmir issue these days.. Limiting India's role there is the highest priority for Pakistan diplomats at this time. Thats why in this dialog the focus will be WOT and Afg and not Kashmir (regular lip service aside)

 

[ice_man]

US has offered us "PEANUTS" again! & i am afraid we will fall for it AGAIN!

one more thing i noticed which is embarrasing which nation takes it ARMY CHIEF to such discussions! we should have some self respect NONE of their foreign office people should meet our army chief,Prime Minister or president!

we completely disregard protocol! we should keep some dignity!!!

 

[Aamir Hussain]

To get the negativity out of our minds -- as a far as the role of US is concerned; US could do some of the following:

1. Develop the Thar coal project US$3.2 Billion -- no need for Nuke Plants -- our energy requirment filled for the next fifty years -- a win-win for both.
2. Pay for the desilting and revamp of Warsak, Mangla, Tarbela & Chashma Dams/Barrages. Extremely symbolic -- water in the short term would not be a problem -- no need to engage a diffidcult India in water talks from US perspective -- win-win for both. Cost about US$ 650Million
3. Unrestricted access to US Markets for the next ten years. No need to pump in further $$$ after the first five year aid package--economy rebounds Pak takes over its own funding requirements -- win- win for all. No real cost to US except for reveue loss on duties amounting to no more than US$ 4 billion over ten years ( My guess).

THX

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

In my view, the Afghanistan issue weighs more heavily on Pakistani Brass's mind than the Kashmir issue these days.. Limiting India's role there is the highest priority for Pakistan diplomats at this time. Thats why in this dialog the focus will be WOT and Afg and not Kashmir (regular lip service aside)

But that dosent means that legitimate concerns over Kashmir issue wont be discussed . I am sure the Military and the Political leadership are engaged with the US to play its part over the settlement of this haunting dispute .And there will be some discussion regarding the road map and when,how,where to engage New Delhi for the settlement of this dispute.
More ever the Afghanistan issue no wonder out weighs the Kashmir issue at this time . Maybe India will itself negotiate a mutually agreeable solution to Kashmir when NewDelhi will find an opportunity to get the Pakistani cooperation in expanding its economic interests across Pakistan and Afghanistan into Central Asia. This will be the arena where Kashmir dispute may find a large area on the discussion plate. Its good that the mutual dialogue btw India and Pakistan has started , but depending upon the current reagional scenario , we might see a momentum building up in the talks at the end of this year perhaps.

 

[karan.1970]

But that dosent means that legitimate concerns over Kashmir issue wont be discussed . I am sure the Military and the Political leadership are engaged with the US to play its part over the settlement of this haunting dispute .And there will be some discussion regarding the road map and when,how,where to engage New Delhi for the settlement of this dispute.
More ever the Afghanistan issue no wonder out weighs the Kashmir issue at this time . Maybe India will itself negotiate a mutually agreeable solution to Kashmir when NewDelhi will find an opportunity to get the Pakistani cooperation in expanding its economic interests across Pakistan and Afghanistan into Central Asia. This will be the arena where Kashmir dispute may find a large area on the discussion plate. Its good that the mutual dialogue btw India and Pakistan has started , but depending upon the current reagional scenario , we might see a momentum building up in the talks at the end of this year perhaps.

Seriously, as long as things get settled amicably, there can be nothing better. But I am not to optimistic on that front. India can not trade in Kashmir for economic growth. The govt who does that will get lynched by the population. Any agreement that attempts to redraw the boundary will not find any favor in the political establishment. US does not have enough clout with India to force the issue here and it knows it and hence does not engage..

Also at this time, rightfully so, Afg has higher prominence in the discussions because Pakistan can not afford even a growing Indian civil influence there. I think India is trying to find a counter balance to Kashmir in Afghanistan. But too soon to say.. Next few months will tell the tale...

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

In my view, the Afghanistan issue weighs more heavily on Pakistani Brass's mind than the Kashmir issue these days.. Limiting India's role there is the highest priority for Pakistan diplomats at this time. Thats why in this dialog the focus will be WOT and Afg and not Kashmir (regular lip service aside)

Despite all the rhetoric in India over 'spike in insurgency' hundreds (if not thousands) of militants just waiting on 'launch pads' (wearing pointy hats to look like Scuds I wonder ) the fact is that if the dynamics of the insurgency in J&K had appeared to have been shifting significantly towards the nineties, and away from everything that had been achieved during Musharraf's rule, India would not have even considered withdrawing any number of troops. Yet we have seen the possibility of 30,000+ Indian security forces being withdrawn.

The Pakistani military, to me at least, has not looked interested in reverting to the nineties since Musharraf's decision to move beyond that and engage with India. Speaker is right on the ball when he argues that Kashmir has in a way 'grown larger than the country' in that there would be a huge militant backlash (the political one would be manageable) from the more 'Islamist' groups involved in Kashmir were there to be a comprehensive crackdown on them without any progress on the dispute to sell to the people.

Such a militant backlash would essentially amount to opening another front in the WoT, in the heartland, and stretch Pakistani resources extremely thin. That is why such a crackdown is unlikely until;

1. Pakistan gains control over FATA and some sort of roadmap for stability in Afghanistan emerges.

OR

2. There is tangible movement on a path to dispute resolution with India.

Till then I agree that Afghanistan 'weighs more heavily' in Pakistani strategic decision making.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

But I am not to optimistic on that front. India can not trade in Kashmir for economic growth. The govt who does that will get lynched by the population. Any agreement that attempts to redraw the boundary will not find any favor in the political establishment. US does not have enough clout with India to force the issue here and it knows it and hence does not engage..

I guess the large part of Indian population wants to have a resolution of this thorny dispute.Plus its not a bad deal for India to trade Kashmir for Economic growth Coz by doing so , It will have better ties with Pakistan and Plus the overall Economic growth and prosperity . But i think i am rather too optimistic . However there must be some people in the Indian establishment who might consider this valid and applicable. But still a long way to go.

Also at this time, rightfully so, Afg has higher prominence in the discussions because Pakistan can not afford even a growing Indian civil influence there. I think India is trying to find a counter balance to Kashmir in Afghanistan. But too soon to say.. Next few months will tell the tale...

I guess what you mentioned was the sole objective of Indian engagement in Afghanistan attached to the US invasion ie., to contour the Kashmir issue by engaging Pakistan through Afghanistan .But the dynamics have certainly changed in favor of Pakistan , therefore the Military leadership here will not allow any influential Indian entity to prosper in Afghanistan . However the conditions apply , like the Indian will and dedication to have a mutually agreeable solution for all the outstanding disputes.

 

[Speaker]

Seriously, as long as things get settled amicably, there can be nothing better. But I am not to optimistic on that front. India can not trade in Kashmir for economic growth. The govt who does that will get lynched by the population. Any agreement that attempts to redraw the boundary will not find any favor in the political establishment. US does not have enough clout with India to force the issue here and it knows it and hence does not engage..

Also at this time, rightfully so, Afg has higher prominence in the discussions because Pakistan can not afford even a growing Indian civil influence there. I think India is trying to find a counter balance to Kashmir in Afghanistan. But too soon to say.. Next few months will tell the tale...

I agree, both countries' public will be against redrawing the current LoC. And the most commonly accepted solution is if we both agree to respect that as the effective border.

On the Afghanistan issue, I am not sure on how India looks at it. But if Pakistan draws parallels with Kashmir on that, they'll be doing a great disservice to themselves. Kashmir is a state of India, with a domestic and foreign policy dependent on that of India. Pakistan can only claim to 'sympathize', but not support in any other open way the decisions that are taken there. Afghanistan is an independent, sovereign nation, and Pakistan can influence, but not dictate their foreign policy. Can they, for example ask Afghanistan to stop sending its army to India for training? Or for cutting off diplomatic relationship? Not really. Even if America cuts a deal with the Taliban, they will not allow an anti-US government to come to power there. And I can't think of a government in Afghanistan that will be acceptable to both US and Pakistan. So I don't know what Pakistan is trying to achieve here.

As far as the civil links are concerned, it is not going anywhere. Not even if India wants. Will they stop coming to our colleges to study? Will they stop watching our TV and cinema? Will they kick out the Indian contractors and businesses operating there? I am not sure.

 

[Cynic Waheed]

As a pakistani I dont really feel satisfied at the results. I think all this stuff promised is really peanuts. N-Deal is not even mentioned on the press release. There will be more teams that will talk more for the next few months till the US escapes from here. No deal on Pak's water issues, not even a mention. I really feel gutted at the appalling treatment of US to Pakistanis for all the sacrifices that we are making for the rest of free world. And especially given that even COAS was there so I was expecting something substantial and concrete to come out. I feel rather disappointed. What do people on this forum feel?

 

[SEAL]

Roona Dhoona of Indian media and Indian people on PAK-US strategic dialogue is worth watching.

 

[ambidex]

There will be no backlash from anyone in Pakistan, We have seen backlash from TTP after drone attacks. We have seen backlash since WOT. Who will do backlash if Pakistan negotiate Kashmir in India's favour? No one....

Reader's must understand why Pakistan is hell bent on asking third party mediation on Kashmir. This is a testimony to the fact that Pakistan has nothing significant to argue with India but to keep Kashmir alive only as India has been claiming Pakistan governed Kashmir.

Interestingly Pakistan could have done better by not following the suit when India took this matter to UN. It seems India directed Pakistan in whirlpool and since then Pakistan is claiming some thing which UN was not able implicate. How Pakistan's position can be justified per UN's shoddy judgment pro or against Pakistan when this issue is only going to resolved by both parties.

Pakistan has tried all possible options it can. Every time Indian justifications and mechanisms are seen functioning in peace time.

Furthermore Pakistan's concerns to a would be backlash (on both India and Pakistan) by something unknown and its dependency on the same to pressurize all parties is a immature judgement and win win situation for India.

We are happy to see Pakistan's dependency on such vulnerable & unpredictable scenarios. And for india there is no backlash kinda sparrow to exasperate cause we are well hardened by all worst possible backlashes any nation could imagine. Yes.. if for Pakistan, a backlash is a concern (unlikely) then it will be from its own people and there will be no one to compensate that damage like we can see during this WOT.

I must tell the readers that our friendship with anyone is not that overwhelming cosy that we will tilt the balance toward its weight to compromise our national interests.

 

[karan.1970]

I guess the large part of Indian population wants to have a resolution of this thorny dispute.Plus its not a bad deal for India to trade Kashmir for Economic growth Coz by doing so , It will have better ties with Pakistan and Plus the overall Economic growth and prosperity . But i think i am rather too optimistic . However there must be some people in the Indian establishment who might consider this valid and applicable. But still a long way to go.

I think the biggest problem is the population of INdia and Pakistan and their emotional attachment to Kashmir.. Thats why the dispute is unsettled for so long...

I guess what you mentioned was the sole objective of Indian engagement in Afghanistan attached to the US invasion ie., to contour the Kashmir issue by engaging Pakistan through Afghanistan .But the dynamics have certainly changed in favor of Pakistan , therefore the Military leadership here will not allow any influential Indian entity to prosper in Afghanistan . However the conditions apply , like the Indian will and dedication to have a mutually agreeable solution for all the outstanding disputes.

Like every thing else, there will be thrusts and counter thrusts in Afg as well. These things are measured in years if not decades. Net Net, India is angling hard for a bargaining chip in Afghanistan to keep Pakistan too preoccupied to effectively build pressure in Kashmir...

btw no disrespect to the population of Afghanistan. Once it settles, I think this jostling between India and Pakistan will work in their favor as re talibanization of Afg is out of question, and the only way India and Pakistan will exhert influence in Afg will be thru diplomacy, Economic and cultural engagement...


As they say.. Game On.....

 

[karan.1970]

As a pakistani I dont really feel satisfied at the results. I think all this stuff promised is really peanuts. N-Deal is not even mentioned on the press release. There will be more teams that will talk more for the next few months till the US escapes from here. No deal on Pak's water issues, not even a mention. I really feel gutted at the appalling treatment of US to Pakistanis for all the sacrifices that we are making for the rest of free world. And especially given that even COAS was there so I was expecting something substantial and concrete to come out. I feel rather disappointed. What do people on this forum feel?

The deals with the COAS wont be announced in public...

 

[Jackdaws]

There will be no nuke deal. Atleast not for the next 10 years. Impossible to get it past Congress, let alone the NSG

 

[Cynic Waheed]

Still dont think we're getting drones or anything new.. In my humble opinion t will just be some crap machinery enough to some how shut us up... for now that is!