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Black Swans in South Asia
Forrest Cookson
The Independent - 29/01/2014
We all know about black swans, unforeseen low probability events that have a big impact. Nassim Taleb believes black swans are the main determinants of much of what happens, so trying to figure out the future is a waste of time. In Bangladesh we had two black swans last year—the collapse of the Rana Plaza and the emergence of 153 Parliamentary constituencies uncontested in the 2014 election.
For those of us who savor black swans the most glorious one was the arrest of Devyani Khobiagade and the subsequent war against the United States conducted by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs. This BS had everything… the little gal takes on the big gal, sexual titillation, rich defeat the poor, ironies of ethnic origin, and sobering up the American community in Delhi.
I want to tell the story as seen by five persons—a middle class American female, an upper caste Indian male, a senior official in the Ministry of External Affairs, an Indian expatriate female in the United States making somewhat more than the minimum wage and an American non-government expatriate in Delhi.
First the Indian female expatriate: “This snobby Dalit all dressed up in fancy cloths cheats her maid who she abuses by giving her a miserable life and pays her peanuts. Then she gets annoyed that the servant goes to the American authorities to complain. The India B….then tries to pressure the servant’s husband still in India to make her withdraw the accusations. We were lucky to make it to the US; here in New York we work hard, take care of our children, follow the laws, and appreciate that we are rewarded for our work not for our high and mighty dignity. So the B got stripped searched…probably the most exciting thing that happened to her in years. We are so proud of the prosecutor who is an Indian like my husband and me. He did the right thing. Not a word from the Indian Government about the abuse of he maidservant. We got out of India to escape the caste system and the exploitation of poor people like us. We both work and between us we make about $4000 a month or about $3200 after taxes. We baby sit our own children and see that they study; they are going to be great people. We can hold our heads high in a country where the poor have a chance. My friends and I have no sympathy for this spoiled whinny woman.”
Senior official Ministry of External Affairs: “ Informal note to… This is a mess with Devyani. What happened here is that we gave her the standard contract that the Americans always approve for her servant to get a visa. Then this fool makes another written contract just like we tell them not to do. There are now 13 Indian diplomats exposed who have fake contracts with their servants. We have been talking to the Americans about this for sometime. This case now drops on us before we can get a resolution. I do not care about Devyani but we have a real mess if this goes any further. Fortunately the Americans messed up the handling of the case so we can stand up and scream abuse etc. Then the idiot Devyani tries to solve this by pressuring the maid’s husband. How can she be so heavy handed? Good thing this happened, she has no career in the Ministry. I do not think family influence is going to get her past this. There is also an accusation against her for misrepresenting her ownership of government issued flats. Now the Americans are ever more righteous—don’t they know that is our act?? Anyway this prosecutor is a pain in the neck. These Indians who get born in the US and then work harder than the lazy white faces always cause a lot of trouble. My suggestion is that we calm this mess down and figure out how to deal with the 13 problem cases. Unfortunately the politicos are going to make a big fuss believing this will help them win the election. The quicker we can get this off the front page the better.”
Upper cast Indian male: “Ha ha…that sexy fox got herself felt up. Serves her right. Upstart Dalit with no idea about how to handle these yanks. She should have let the Prosecutor do the strip search then her problems would be over. As for the maid servant only a Dalit would lose control of this. After all she gave the woman a place to live, food and 35,000 rupees a month to spend. That is pretty good if you ask me for a person like that. Of course she is working all the time but that is what servants do. Only in America would it occur to her to complain. She probably met some of those Philippine women at the playground always causing trouble and pushing all these “rights” that Americans pretend to give to their lower classes while they keep them in poverty and high on drugs. The elites should rule. That is what we had in India and now we are losing it. I did not know she was married to an American professor of Indian origin; he should have done some of the baby-sitting. Probably he was doing it to the servant and she ran away. Once a Dalit always a Dalit.”
American middle class matron living in New York: Talking to a friend over the telephone. “ You read about that Indian diplomat? Strange business you know you got to feel sorry for her. She is not very well paid—I heard about $3,500 but no taxes and she must get an allowance for a place to live. Two small children and a busy social life how can she do that without a servant? Of course no one can afford a servant in New York unless you are really rich. Yah. But not a bad idea the servant lives there with them and is with the children all the time. Probably does the laundry and some cooking too. Gets about $500 a month and sends most of it home to her husband in India. Wish I could find someone with that deal. Jessica pays that Philippine woman $2,000 a month but the maid has her own place. We could never afford that along with the social security. Did the husband of the Indian woman work? I think only part time. Where was he? He could do some of the baby sitting like any American husband has to do. Once you get to $15,000/month you can afford a servant otherwise get your husband to help. This is the 21st century these guys cannot sit around idle. Poor thing she is going back to India and leaving her husband and two kids behind. He is a professor of wine or something like that. Sounds like an interesting hunk.”
American expatriate in Delhi: “What is going on? What do you mean I cannot use the club? Where do you expect us to go? To those rip off dens in the lousy hotels in this city. How can you relax there with those Indian whores hovering around all the time? Cannot take my kids there. Well the Embassy has to do something. What uproar over some maid in New York. These Indians always know how to hit us where it hurts. What was that Indian prosecutor in New York up to? God I will be glad to get out of this dump. From now on the company has to find Mormons to come to this hole.”
The GREAT GOD of BLACK SWANS chortles: “ I got them all with that one. That guy from the Ministry was pretty smart he saw something coming but convinced himself he had it under control. Hmm…where should I send the next BS? Bangladesh of course, I have a good one; no one will see it coming. “
Black swans in South Asia
Forrest Cookson
The Independent - 29/01/2014
We all know about black swans, unforeseen low probability events that have a big impact. Nassim Taleb believes black swans are the main determinants of much of what happens, so trying to figure out the future is a waste of time. In Bangladesh we had two black swans last year—the collapse of the Rana Plaza and the emergence of 153 Parliamentary constituencies uncontested in the 2014 election.
For those of us who savor black swans the most glorious one was the arrest of Devyani Khobiagade and the subsequent war against the United States conducted by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs. This BS had everything… the little gal takes on the big gal, sexual titillation, rich defeat the poor, ironies of ethnic origin, and sobering up the American community in Delhi.
I want to tell the story as seen by five persons—a middle class American female, an upper caste Indian male, a senior official in the Ministry of External Affairs, an Indian expatriate female in the United States making somewhat more than the minimum wage and an American non-government expatriate in Delhi.
First the Indian female expatriate: “This snobby Dalit all dressed up in fancy cloths cheats her maid who she abuses by giving her a miserable life and pays her peanuts. Then she gets annoyed that the servant goes to the American authorities to complain. The India B….then tries to pressure the servant’s husband still in India to make her withdraw the accusations. We were lucky to make it to the US; here in New York we work hard, take care of our children, follow the laws, and appreciate that we are rewarded for our work not for our high and mighty dignity. So the B got stripped searched…probably the most exciting thing that happened to her in years. We are so proud of the prosecutor who is an Indian like my husband and me. He did the right thing. Not a word from the Indian Government about the abuse of he maidservant. We got out of India to escape the caste system and the exploitation of poor people like us. We both work and between us we make about $4000 a month or about $3200 after taxes. We baby sit our own children and see that they study; they are going to be great people. We can hold our heads high in a country where the poor have a chance. My friends and I have no sympathy for this spoiled whinny woman.”
Senior official Ministry of External Affairs: “ Informal note to… This is a mess with Devyani. What happened here is that we gave her the standard contract that the Americans always approve for her servant to get a visa. Then this fool makes another written contract just like we tell them not to do. There are now 13 Indian diplomats exposed who have fake contracts with their servants. We have been talking to the Americans about this for sometime. This case now drops on us before we can get a resolution. I do not care about Devyani but we have a real mess if this goes any further. Fortunately the Americans messed up the handling of the case so we can stand up and scream abuse etc. Then the idiot Devyani tries to solve this by pressuring the maid’s husband. How can she be so heavy handed? Good thing this happened, she has no career in the Ministry. I do not think family influence is going to get her past this. There is also an accusation against her for misrepresenting her ownership of government issued flats. Now the Americans are ever more righteous—don’t they know that is our act?? Anyway this prosecutor is a pain in the neck. These Indians who get born in the US and then work harder than the lazy white faces always cause a lot of trouble. My suggestion is that we calm this mess down and figure out how to deal with the 13 problem cases. Unfortunately the politicos are going to make a big fuss believing this will help them win the election. The quicker we can get this off the front page the better.”
Upper cast Indian male: “Ha ha…that sexy fox got herself felt up. Serves her right. Upstart Dalit with no idea about how to handle these yanks. She should have let the Prosecutor do the strip search then her problems would be over. As for the maid servant only a Dalit would lose control of this. After all she gave the woman a place to live, food and 35,000 rupees a month to spend. That is pretty good if you ask me for a person like that. Of course she is working all the time but that is what servants do. Only in America would it occur to her to complain. She probably met some of those Philippine women at the playground always causing trouble and pushing all these “rights” that Americans pretend to give to their lower classes while they keep them in poverty and high on drugs. The elites should rule. That is what we had in India and now we are losing it. I did not know she was married to an American professor of Indian origin; he should have done some of the baby-sitting. Probably he was doing it to the servant and she ran away. Once a Dalit always a Dalit.”
American middle class matron living in New York: Talking to a friend over the telephone. “ You read about that Indian diplomat? Strange business you know you got to feel sorry for her. She is not very well paid—I heard about $3,500 but no taxes and she must get an allowance for a place to live. Two small children and a busy social life how can she do that without a servant? Of course no one can afford a servant in New York unless you are really rich. Yah. But not a bad idea the servant lives there with them and is with the children all the time. Probably does the laundry and some cooking too. Gets about $500 a month and sends most of it home to her husband in India. Wish I could find someone with that deal. Jessica pays that Philippine woman $2,000 a month but the maid has her own place. We could never afford that along with the social security. Did the husband of the Indian woman work? I think only part time. Where was he? He could do some of the baby sitting like any American husband has to do. Once you get to $15,000/month you can afford a servant otherwise get your husband to help. This is the 21st century these guys cannot sit around idle. Poor thing she is going back to India and leaving her husband and two kids behind. He is a professor of wine or something like that. Sounds like an interesting hunk.”
American expatriate in Delhi: “What is going on? What do you mean I cannot use the club? Where do you expect us to go? To those rip off dens in the lousy hotels in this city. How can you relax there with those Indian whores hovering around all the time? Cannot take my kids there. Well the Embassy has to do something. What uproar over some maid in New York. These Indians always know how to hit us where it hurts. What was that Indian prosecutor in New York up to? God I will be glad to get out of this dump. From now on the company has to find Mormons to come to this hole.”
The GREAT GOD of BLACK SWANS chortles: “ I got them all with that one. That guy from the Ministry was pretty smart he saw something coming but convinced himself he had it under control. Hmm…where should I send the next BS? Bangladesh of course, I have a good one; no one will see it coming. “
Black swans in South Asia