The Mathematics of Military Balance

[anon45]

do yo seriously think that US will go to war with China over taiwan? cause that would be no joke dude. china has icbms and nukes. how will the american people react when they understand that they are under the gun too?

Yes, I seriously think so. Yes the conflict would be no joke. Who wants it?

China has a no first use policy yes? Do you think they will break their word?

Also in this case it would be China going to war with Taiwan, so we'd be forced to react considering China would be the one presumably invading.

There is a reason Taiwan is seen as a future flashpoint, the US govt is committed to Taiwan's defence for reasons greater than Taiwan itself. Unless China (or the US) is somehow able to unentangle the issue of Taiwan's security with the credibility of the US defence umbrella, the US will attempt to defend Taiwan from Invasion.

The real issue is what if the war doesn't end once the carriers get there (in many scenarios this is seen as the point where China's Taiwan invasion fails) or once Taiwan is under PRC control?

 

[below_freezing]

Yes, I seriously think so. Yes the conflict would be no joke. Who wants it?

China has a no first use policy yes? Do you think they will break their word?

Also in this case it would be China going to war with Taiwan, so we'd be forced to react considering China would be the one presumably invading.

There is a reason Taiwan is seen as a future flashpoint, the US govt is committed to Taiwan's defence for reasons greater than Taiwan itself. Unless China (or the US) is somehow able to unentangle the issue of Taiwan's security with the credibility of the US defence umbrella, the US will attempt to defend Taiwan from Invasion.

The real issue is what if the war doesn't end once the carriers get there (in many scenarios this is seen as the point where China's Taiwan invasion fails) or once Taiwan is under PRC control?

When the carriers arrive, if 1 arrives, 1 will sink, if 10 arrive, 10 will sink. One of your fellow citizens said that if a US carrier sinks, the US will go nuclear. At that point, we will also go nuclear, and both countries will be wiped out. Now, will your government do where your fellow citizens yap for? Or will they ignore you for the sake of national security the way they did in WW2, in Korea, in Vietnam?

 

[Obambam]

US knows well enough that interfering militarily would result in them being dragged to the bottom of the pit as well. That's how important China sees Taiwan.

If the claim of sinking a carrier is considered an act of a nuclear attack is true, then they better be ready for it should they choose to militarily intervene with the China-Taiwan issue. I am sure China can change its policy to one that sees 'intervening with Taiwan militarily is as act of nuclear attack' just as easily.

Having said that China will not engage in a shooting war under normal cicumstances. We are winning financially and any war would seriously disrupt that. We got Hong Kong and Macau back without having to fire a shot. We will get Taiwan back the same way. Last century was the US. This is going to be China's Century.

 

[casual]

Yes, I seriously think so. Yes the conflict would be no joke. Who wants it?

China has a no first use policy yes? Do you think they will break their word?

Also in this case it would be China going to war with Taiwan, so we'd be forced to react considering China would be the one presumably invading.

There is a reason Taiwan is seen as a future flashpoint, the US govt is committed to Taiwan's defence for reasons greater than Taiwan itself. Unless China (or the US) is somehow able to unentangle the issue of Taiwan's security with the credibility of the US defence umbrella, the US will attempt to defend Taiwan from Invasion.

The real issue is what if the war doesn't end once the carriers get there (in many scenarios this is seen as the point where China's Taiwan invasion fails) or once Taiwan is under PRC control?

you can't make any assumptions in war. there is a reason the why cold war never got hot.

but anyways, this is all very unlikely because you know as well as I that if anything happens the business lobby in US will side on the "diplomatic" or "non-intervention" policy to protect their interests. everyday americans will not go to war if going to war means the deepest economic depression since forever.

 

[below_freezing]

you can't make any assumptions in war. there is a reason the why cold war never got hot.

but anyways, this is all very unlikely because you know as well as I that if anything happens the business lobby in US will side on the "diplomatic" or "non-intervention" policy to protect their interests. everyday americans will not go to war if going to war means the deepest economic depression since forever.

By deepest economic recession, you mean, total nuclear annihilation.

 

[casual]

By deepest economic recession, you mean, total nuclear annihilation.

no, by deepest economic recession i mean china will dump it's holdings of US T-bonds.

 

[below_freezing]

no, by deepest economic recession i mean china will dump it's holdings of US T-bonds.

And after that, total nuclear annihilation if the US does not stop its racial wars of genocide.

 

[anon45]

you can't make any assumptions in war. there is a reason the why cold war never got hot.

but anyways, this is all very unlikely because you know as well as I that if anything happens the business lobby in US will side on the "diplomatic" or "non-intervention" policy to protect their interests. everyday americans will not go to war if going to war means the deepest economic depression since forever.

As you've said, you cannot make any assumptions. It's possible Americans won't have the stomach for it , but PRC planners would be fools to rely on that as things stand, as that hasn't been proven by history.

 

[below_freezing]

You don't have to not stomach it. The ball is in your court. It is up to the US whether they want to escalate or not. If you take it too far, you will be nuked into annihilation. We will be nuked into something less than annihilation due to extensive underground airbases and military bases that significantly reduce the power of US airburst weapons. After the dust settles, only 1 side will have the planes and missiles remaining to permanently wipe the other off the earth.

 

[anon45]

You don't have to not stomach it. The ball is in your court. It is up to the US whether they want to escalate or not. If you take it too far, you will be nuked into annihilation. We will be nuked into something less than annihilation due to extensive underground airbases and military bases that significantly reduce the power of US airburst weapons. After the dust settles, only 1 side will have the planes and missiles remaining to permanently wipe the other off the earth.

Don't see where you're coming from, China clearly has to move for a conflict to start, thus the ball is in China's court.

I doubt the Chinese will care about the war after the nukes are done flying. The US won't.

 

[casual]

Don't see where you're coming from, China clearly has to move for a conflict to start, thus the ball is in China's court.

I doubt the Chinese will care about the war after the nukes are done flying. The US won't.

exactly. china doesn't move on this issue either because of that slight possibility of something going wrong and WWIII starts. and in a nuclear war there won't be winners and losers. there'll only be losers.

 

[Desert Fox]

A really good Documentary i was watching the other day about the New Arms race triggered in the world (Thanks to the United States and its Allies)

 

[Obambam]

A really good Documentary i was watching the other day about the New Arms race triggered in the world (Thanks to the United States and its Allies)

The American military expenditure is unsustainable. Triggering an arms race will be a suicidal move for them especially since their economy is in decline. They are looking more and more like the former Soviet Union.

 

[Desert Fox]

The American military expenditure is unsustainable. Triggering an arms race will be a suicidal move for them especially since their economy is in decline. They are looking more and more like the former Soviet Union.

unfortunately this is the bitter truth

 

[gambit]

The American military expenditure is unsustainable. Triggering an arms race will be a suicidal move for them especially since their economy is in decline. They are looking more and more like the former Soviet Union.

Hmmm...Not surprised that you are wrong...

First, the US defense budget is barely %5 of GDP, so that is hardly 'unsustainable'. Second, an 'arms race' is so only if there is a contestant, which in this case are China and Russia, manufacturers of indigenous weaponry to either consume or sell. Those who purchase their defense cannot be a contestant in said 'arms race' unless they are in contest against neighbors, not against sellers.

So for a defense budget that barely scratches %5 of GDP, that mean the US defense budget is about more about maintenance and low to moderate levels of improvement of current systems, not of an all-out 'race' like when the Soviet Union was alive and was such a contestant. But since China is undergoing overall modernization, no longer maintenance since the Soviet Union no longer exist to supply China with arms, it is China who is triggering an 'arms race'. Still, the US is at least 10yrs ahead of China in every aspect of military affairs at %5 of GDP and the US is implementing new systems that mean the US will remain ahead of China at very sustainable rate.