The lasting lesson of 1962

[newdelhinsa]

Irrespective of your jibber jabber, reality is were you capable of doing it, you would have!!

Don't act like Nazoomi (Astrologer). Smell the coffee.

India is not a rouge state who will disrespect International agreements/ ceasefires etc. India has agreement with China to resolve all border issues peacefully.

 

[Killswitch]

If the Chinese want a war they'll get one. No matter where they decide to strike (Taiwan, India, Spratly's, etc.)
It will lead to several important Asian countries creating a common security goal of containing China.

So... let the Chinese come.

 

[Martian2]

If the Chinese want a war they'll get one. No matter where they decide to strike (Taiwan, India, Spratly's, etc.)
It will lead to several important Asian countries creating a common security goal of containing China.

So... let the Chinese come.

Let's take a close look at the theory of "encircling China."

#1 Japan - A weak country with a stagnant economy. Population is expected to fall to 100 million by 2050. Most Japanese women are past their prime child-bearing age and the population decline is virtually irreversible. National debt as a percentage of GDP is 200% and rising.

Trying to rebuild from a devastating tsunami. Containment of Fukushima nuclear reactors will take 40 years (see citation below). Military technology is falling rapidly behind China's. Announced purchase of 42 F-35s, which I have previously mentioned as inferior to China's J-20 Mighty Dragon (e.g. supercruise, all-aspect stealth, longer-range missiles, etc.).

Japan isn't what it used to be. This is a has-been country. After Japan, it is all downhill in terms of national power.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/22/w...-daiichi-nuclear-reactors.html?_r=3&ref=earth

"Japan Says Decommissioning Damaged Reactors Could Take 40 Years
By MARTIN FACKLER
Published: December 21, 2011

TOKYO — Decommissioning the wrecked reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will take 40 years and require the use of robots to remove melted fuel that appears to be stuck to the bottom of the reactors’ containment vessels, the Japanese government said on Wednesday."

-----

#2 India - This country is imploding economically at an incredible pace. Indian rupee has sunk by 20% from 44 to 53 rupees in the last four months. They will be lucky if they can feed themselves. India poses no military threat to China with a puny Indian aggregate of 1 megaton firepower from ALL of its combined atomic weapons. 294 megatons of Chinese thermonuclear weaponry can erase India from the face of the Earth. The Indians would never dare to launch a single atomic-capable weapon in China's direction. If they do, the subcontinent will become vacant real estate.

One billion malnourished Indians couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag. Indian participation in Russian Pak-Fa program will result in a non-stealthy fighter. I've already mentioned the non-stealthy exposed metallic engine pods, exposed engine fan blades from lack of "S ducts," metal-framed cockpit, cluttered underside, etc. on the Pak-Fa in another thread.

#3 South Korea - South Korea is too small geographically and population-wise. Also, the economy is too small to merit serious attention. Anyway, South Koreans are worried about militaristic North Korea. South Korea will be lucky if Seoul doesn't get nuked by the Stalinist North Koreans.

#4 Australia - Too far away and the country only has 23 million people, which is smaller than Chongqing metropolitan area. Too insignificant to be a factor.

#5 Vietnam - The dong has depreciated to 21,000 per U.S. dollar (see citation below). Vietnam faces the same problem as India. Both Vietnam and India have a standard of living that is lower than sub-Saharan Africa. They don't pose a threat to anyone.

Here we go again: Vietnam

"Here we go again: Vietnam’s spiral of credit and devaluation
March 10th, 2011
Author: David Dapice, Harvard University

Vietnam recently devalued its currency to about 21,000 dong to the US dollar. At the end of 2008, the rate was 17,000 — a decline of 24 per cent in about two years. In fact, it is worse since the ‘free market’ rate is over 22,000, and many people wanting dollars need to pay that rate. That rate would make it nearly 30 per cent depreciation. Since interest rates on dong bank deposits are only about 15 per cent, it seems safer to keep dollars under the mattress than dong in the bank."

-----

In conclusion, the concept of "encircling China" sounds reasonable on paper. In reality, it is ridiculous. It is similar to saying that China wants to enter into an alliance with Canada and Mexico to encircle the U.S. Pretty funny, isn't it?

 

[Indus Falcon]

Pretty funny, isn't it?

Sure is!!

 

[fly2012]

Can we get over this and move on?

As to the lessons, until many Indians try to sort out the fact from 3rd party sources instead of blindly believe Nehru's "China back-stabbing" excuses, there's no real lessons can be learnt. Wiki is a start and also there're papers like this one which is very serious acadamically from US a navy commander:

India-China border war

Almost all non-Indian sources blame Nehru for the war and points out how absurd Johnson line is. There're communication problems that triggers the final showdown that can be avoided today if similar situation happens again, but it is safe to say that it is Nehru's "continuous effort" that caused the war:

1. Claim Johnson line, which is just a survey that even British themselves abondoned it. Claiming the territory doesn't lead to the war, then:

2. June, 1959, Nehru visisted Dalai Lama personally:

Provide humanitarian help is understandable, but a state leader personally meeting the largest rebellion group of another country is asking for war.

3. One guy above blame China for not negotiating with China:

"In 1960, Zhou Enlai unofficially suggested that India drop its claims to Aksai Chin in return for a Chinese withdrawal of claims over NEFA."

"Nehru declined to conduct any negotiations on the boundary until Chinese troops withdrew from Aksai Chin" (If Nehru was willing to talk, should Indian army also withdrew from NEFA first?")

Zhou was willing to give up NEFA even China never recogonized The McMahon Line. This shows the sincere attitute that CCP had at the time. If the proposal was taken seriously, both countries would've have current LAC and so many lives and money could be saved. After the final trip back from New Delhi, Zhou said he didn't understand Nehru's stubbornness: "Aksai Chin is of absolutely no use for India but it is very important to China, why doesn't a friend give something he doesn't need but very useful for the other one?"

4. Forward policy: Attempt to sort out the issue militarily.
5. Ignore Chinese government's final official warning that is only given before it is ready for miltary action. The warning was given before Korean war and all wars China fought.
6. Provoke but don't prepare for the war. Arrogance, Ignorance, Stubbornness.
7. After the defeat, giving excuses to cover his failures and even today so many Indians only believe his story (and believe Chinese were brainwashed). A lot of Indian media still publish sansational stories to get the audience's emotion, like the constant China attacking story and this one.

To make Nehru a victim, there are even rediculous stories like "Nehru/Gandhi gave UN permenant seat to China as a friend gesture". So many Indian believed this myth without even bothering to check that China was not in UN until 1971, and when Republic of China (Taiwan) got the seat in 1945, India as a nation was not born yet. What lesson can be learned if so many people, rather believe stories than facts, and call others brainwashed?

 

[Indus Falcon]

The fundamental problem with Indians, is that they underestimate everyone, and overestimate their own capabilities.

 

[SinoChallenger]

Ok, There are quite a lot for Indians to learn from 1962... And entire Indians are now aware of where to keep China...And even in our wildest dream we will not call "Indi chini Bhai Bhai"

But one last chance, If China again want to attack India, Do it before 2015... There's a hell a lot of things coming into Indian Inventory. And India keeps improving its diplomacy with World and East Asian countries(Tiny Chinese neighbours!).

So better be fast than never...Whatsoever, there will be a rearrangement of demography on both sides.

PS:Better hurry...Post 2015, India might claim North Arunachal Pradesh(Entire Tibet!) as history suggests Indians frequently went and had Chicken momos there

I agree. If China wants to put india back in its place and take back South Tibet, we should to do it by 2015 at the latest. By 2015, india will get Agni-4 working, and then it will have an effective nuclear deterrence against us.

On the other hand, by 2015, China might be able to deploy its ballistic missile defense, which will be comparable to S-400 and THAAD. Once we can shoot down indian Agni-4's and Agni-5's, but still threaten them with our Dongfeng, our window of opportunity to attack opens again.

 

[Sasquatch]

Let's be honest. Nehru was a cold and calculating strategist.

In 1962, India and China had the same GDP. Nehru figured the Chinese were pre-occupied with the Soviet military on their northern border after the Sino-Soviet split in 1960. Nehru also considered the American bases and allies in Japan and South Korea, which further tied down the PLA. Also, China needed troops stationed opposite Taiwan.

The truth is that Nehru was a cunning strategist. China had a disruptive revolution in 1949. China was further weakened in the 1950-1953 Korean War.

In the final analysis, Nehru was confident he could take on China and steal some land. India had been fully rested since independence in 1947 and Nehru thought India could win in an all-out war against China. It turned out the PLA is a far better fighting force than Nehru ever imagined.

India was the clear aggressor in 1962 and took a calculated gamble to steal land from a perceived weak China. You lost. You are still opportunistic invaders. We will always remember that.

Great Post.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Indians actively refuse to learn from 1962, so will repeat the same mistake at any chance.

 

[seethru]

Indians actively refuse to learn from 1962, so will repeat the same mistake at any chance.

So china has a clear intention of repeating '62 adventure again?
Now, don't give the India is the aggressor BS.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

India only has one formidable opponent to defend(Dont think Pakistan here ) , China has almost all neighbours to defend Taiwan,Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Philippines, Malaysia and India(I clearly meant that with all these nations they have border issues either in land/Sea/Air. To a certain extent US,Australia and NATO allies as well. So chance of concentrating forces on Chinese-Indian borders are limited to a certain level. India on the other hand has one enemy to look upto in its eyes! Pretty Straightforward. In course of war, i am sure China cant move all of its army towards India, On the other hand Indians will be more concentrated on Chinese border.

You just assumed that China will have to fight all these countries at once...is China that stupid? even we withdraw troops from..let say Vietnam border to face India, this country will dare not to size the opportunity to make any trouble or we will patch them later...just by squeez the water valve..they will have to drink sea water. But nothing prevent you to dreami that all of these countries will form a coalition and attack China simultanuously..keep dreaming.

Indian strategists are well aware of this fact. This is one reason, China has not attacked Indians ipost 1962.

the true is India's military force is not a great concern for China...your annoying media and lousy mouth gorvernment certianly won't divert Chinese global geostrategic attention. Fight the formal loser once again won't make China a glorious winner...you Indian strategists just bunch of lunatics and are very un-aware of the reality.

Bro, Why are you(literally not you)Pakistanis always lic**** Chinese ***. Better work to become a formidable force first to join hands with China.

PS: For your Mig21 comments, We are phasing it out shortly(Read MMRCA here), Thats why we are pleading Chinese to attack us now or never. Gotcha!

You India don't understand the true meaning of "all weahter friend"....be cause you have none. by the way Pakistan is formidable enough to keep India tormented for over few decades...and still continue

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

So china has a clear intention of repeating '62 adventure again?
Now, don't give the India is the aggressor BS.

if India wants to repeat 1962, then it will be repeated, and all the evidence is in place that India and Indians do not want to think about or learn from 1962, so to teach Indians, we must remember:

repetition makes perfect.

 

[Sasquatch]

if India wants to repeat 1962, then it will be repeated, and all the evidence is in place that India and Indians do not want to think about or learn from 1962, so to teach Indians, we must remember:

repetition makes perfect.

repetition makes perfect.

 

[Shinigami]

india should have learned a lesson not to mess with China.

Instead india forgot that lesson from 50 years ago, and believe it should have won 1962 if it was more prepared.

Now india is preparing itself for a rematch -- in the next few years certainly.

This time, China must attack with MBT from Pakistan and Nepal, to sweep across northern india and meet with Bangaldesh! 20 small indias is safer for the region than 1 big india.

c'mon dude. do u really take 62 war as a victory? anybody can win a short conflict by back stabbing.

heck indian army barely existed in 1962. forget about bieng deployed in chinese border when the relations were good.

Now, /with 100k troops and modern fighter bombers/
if china tries that again, tibet will be free.

---------- Post added at 07:37 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:36 AM ----------

The fundamental problem with Indians, is that they underestimate everyone, and overestimate their own capabilities.

nope.

I think its we who are underestimating ourselves.

World Military ranking

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

c'mon dude. do u really take 62 war as a victory? anybody can win a short conflict by back stabbing.

heck indian army barely existed in 1962. forget about bieng deployed in chinese border when the relations were good.

Now, /with 100k troops and modern fighter bombers/
if china tries that again, tibet will be free.


globalfirepower.com

I will gamble "free Tibet" vs "Balkanized India"...China won't play a nice guy as 1962, at that time we fought for communist ideology and Ideal but today we will fight for the core of our interests.