The international-law Irony of U.S. Provocations in South China Sea

[asia2000]

Conclusion?

It's militaristically incompetent to build Island 600 mile away from mainland China when all the Chinese potential enemies were in range from airfield in Mainland. You may as well launch your sortie from Hainan Island.

Vietnam started building their islands first and China is just following suit. Here, I have to admit that Chinese is not very creative and has to "copy" other people's idea. However, your idea of doing nothing does not sound any better.

 

[Aepsilons]

Addendum to my last post:

TBH, brilliant strategic move, actually. Daring, yet brilliant. Hahaha.

 

[jhungary]

To avoid hurt your feeling, apparently your wife didn't try her best. Regarding the legality of invading Iraq, there is no conclusive conclusion:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War

Umm, are you actually blind? I said, nobody can proof the war is illegal, because it is ambiguous. And do you actually know what ambiguous means?

You cannot proof beyond reasonable doubt that it is illegal, but also you cannot proof beyond reasonable doubt that it is legal either. Geez, read a few book why don't ya?

 

[nang2]

I am in agreement. The Chinese Defense Strategy in the SCS is centered on the ideation that "time erodes will". What do i mean by this? Ultimately, the Chinese will bide their time and use constancy of their patrols, size of their patrol force, frequency of their patrol force to erode regional contender's ability to project their claims. By constructing these islands, and then militarily arming them, permanently, then this creates an environment of 'inevitability'. Acceptance is the goal; particularly acceptance of Chinese mandate, and then this will facilitate China's creation of a SCS ADIZ. By ultimately stationing a CBG permanent fixture in this region, China, through her PLAN-South Sea Fleet , will force regional cooperation and recognition of her sovereignty.

Right now, it is just a counter measure to many years of island snatching and build-up by Vietnam and Philippine. It is just China's answer: screw you, I am here to stay and stay comfortably. The more comfortably Chinese are living in and cruising around that area, the less comfortable Vietnamese, Philippines and Americans become.

 

[jhungary]

Not every issue shall be resolved via war. These buildup islands can well be used in push-over game, not necessarily just for war.

Well, I am talking about MILITARITISTICALLY, everything militaristically is related to war....

 

[asia2000]

You are naive. You can bet whatever annual salary you make that outside of the newspaper and TV anchors, US diplomats and their counterparts have been talking about what China want to do, is doing, and probably will do, in the SCS.

Do you really think that China went to Japan, South Korea, and others and said: 'Guys, here is the dash-9 map. It means we own that area.' ?

And the rest of Asia agreed ?

Right now, the rest of Asia is strengthening their navies as best they can and talks about alliances if possible, while cheering for the US Navy. No one supports China's claim to the SCS and those islands.

Why would I bet my money on your guess, which might not even be educated?

 

[Aepsilons]

Right now, it is just a counter measure to many years of island snatching and build-up by Vietnam and Philippine. It is just China's answer: screw you, I am here to stay and stay comfortably. The more comfortably Chinese are living on cruising around that area, the less comfortable Vietnamese, Philippines and Americans become.

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING here, those islands were actually considered "Chinese territory". Why do i say this? Well back in 1930s, the Imperial Navy seized the islands in south china sea when China had a civil war as a means to "preserve Chinese territory". In fact one of the reasons why Japan invaded China , Indochina and seized the islands in the south china sea -- was to "Preserve Chinese Territorial Continuity", but Japan merely saw itself as a conduit for the realization of a Greater China. Ironically, Japanese Leadership , at the time, had thought Japan as an integral part of 'Greater China', and would act as the means to unify the Empire again. Of course this was done under imperialistic pretense, but the idea of Greater China, as you can see, included a unified china, korea, japan, taiwan, viet nam, and all the islands in the south china sea.

In fact the reason why Japan intervened in south china sea , in the 1930s was because the Japanese Empire did not recognize French claims on the islands through the French Indochina. Japan rescinded French declaration, and forcefully annihilated French outposts in the islands, actually. Then claiming the islands as part of 'Greater China of the Japanese Empire'.

So , i suppose, this is why Japan does not intervene openly in SCS. Because historically speaking, we had always recognized Chinese suzerainty in these islands.

Right now, it is just a counter measure to many years of island snatching and build-up by Vietnam and Philippine. It is just China's answer: screw you, I am here to stay and stay comfortably. The more comfortably Chinese are living on cruising around that area, the less comfortable Vietnamese, Philippines and Americans become.

The Imperial Navy's 3rd Fleet 第三艦隊 was nick named "Chinese South Sea Fleet" , lol, actually. It was the fleet that was used to reclaim the islands for 'Greater China of the Japanese Empire'.

 

[nang2]

Well, I am talking about MILITARITISTICALLY, everything militaristically is related to war....

Fair enough.

 

[jhungary]

Very good and sharp analysis of current PLAN capabilities on the ground, @jhungary . You are right that these islands are some 600, 700 nautical miles away from the nearest home port of Hainan Island. This can be a vital strategic issue in the case of strategic resupply, or force projection abilitie(s). I think that as we speak the current underperformance of such islands such as Fiery Cross Island and other key holdings in the Nansha Island(s) is due to the lack of naval and air military presence in those islands. However, from my analysis of such islands, i can't help but notice these:

Newly genesized islands such as these, are capable to be armed with at least a regiment or battalion sized force, and can easily hold up to two to three squadrons of fighters (even more). They can easily provide air defense batteries of S-400 or the HQ-9, armed with impressive radar systems such as the HT-233, YLC-2. Arming these islands with 4-5 batteries of S-400 or HQ-9s would make these practically impregnable from air to ground attacks, and would greatly inhibit foreign air force projection / interdiction or inhibit carrier air wing enforcement.

Secondly , looking at the dredging activity in the central and perimeter of the island, i can see that they will probably construct a deep sea port in this island, which can eventually host and dock larger naval systems, particularly more heavy destroyer classes of the PLAN South Sea Fleet, specifically the Type 52 B,C,D. In particular the Jiangkai Class Destroyer, which has already been deployed en masse to the Nansha Islands.

My prediction is that , utlimately, after islands such as these are fully operational and with naval deep sea ports created and ready for access, they ultimately will be forward deployed bases for their destroyer squadrons or even be host to rotational processes of their current Liaoning Carrier Battle Group. Let us remember that they are currently constructing 2 more carriers of the Varyag / Liaoning Class, i assume those two will ultimately be stationed for the North Sea Fleet and East Sea Fleet, respectively. Basically a carrier per fleet.

Problem is, you are thinking on a straight forward approach on the issue.

A simple question arise, did Philippine or Vietnam or Anyone have to attack or pass thru those island (Either a single island or *** a group) to attack other Chinese structure? The answer is no.

Those island are static defences. And being static mean they cannot be move nor being mobile, hence you do not need to touch them, and you can simply by pass them. However, for the defender purpose, you need to deploy your troop there, WITH OR WITHOUT your enemy attacking.

Plus, you missed one very prominent point. Which is you are assuming the different island under Chinese control can work with each other in a mutually supported position. However, the actual reality is between these island, they cannot form a straight and mutually supported line. Which mean each defence installation in a given island is operating on their own when each of the Chinese island were enveloped or flanked with A Vietnamese or Philippine controlled Island. Which in term of warfare, you lost your force multiplier effect on those island and when they ceased to exist as a continuous defensive line, which mean any support have to route thru a potential enemies territories to be able to support each other. And that would either mean China have to launch a massive campaign to capture all other island to minimize the operational loss during the defence, or they would have to evacuate those island as they are very much prompted to be attack or flanked by your enemy.

Therefore, the 5 islands group currently lies in SCS is actually more of a liability than an asset to Chinese Navy. As it will drain resource to protect them and they are also separated and quite easy target to be taken out one by one.

War does not win just by showing who have the biggest gun or what you have or don't have, it's always what you can support and what you cannot. it does not matter if China have 3 CBG or 60 Destroyer in the area, problem is, 1.) You are not going to be able to sustain any operation with full strength for long. 2.) Not all of the asset can display in the battle area. 3.) Not all asset are deployable at once. Defence Strategy 101. Defence is like you are in a square, you will have to defend all 4 side and spread your force evenly to effectively defend an area, but your enemy only need to penetrate one side. So you are hitting with a 4 to 1 disadvantage to start, unless your force can mitigate the different, it does not matter you have a larger force, you will lose in the end,

 

[Aepsilons]

Problem is, you are thinking on a straight forward approach on the issue.

A simple question arise, did Philippine or Vietnam or Anyone have to attack or pass thru those island (Either a single island or *** a group) to attack other Chinese structure? The answer is no.

Those island are static defences. And being static mean they cannot be move nor being mobile, hence you do not need to touch them, and you can simply by pass them. However, for the defender purpose, you need to deploy your troop there, WITH OR WITHOUT your enemy attacking.

Plus, you missed one very prominent point. Which is you are assuming the different island under Chinese control can work with each other in a mutually supported position. However, the actual reality is between these island, they cannot form a straight and mutually supported line. Which mean each defence installation in a given island is operating on their own when each of the Chinese island were enveloped or flanked with A Vietnamese or Philippine controlled Island. Which in term of warfare, you lost your force multiplier effect on those island and when they ceased to exist as a continuous defensive line, which mean any support have to route thru a potential enemies territories to be able to support each other. And that would either mean China have to launch a massive campaign to capture all other island to minimize the operational loss during the defence, or they would have to evacuate those island as they are very much prompted to be attack or flanked by your enemy.

View attachment 291068

Therefore, the 5 islands currently lies in SCS is actually more of a liability than an asset to Chinese Navy. As it will drain resource to protect them and they are also separated and quite easy target to be taken out one by one.

Very candid appraisal. Tho i am gambling to assume that the Chinese side are biding their time using their force projection to counter any Vietnamese or Filipino threats. Let's be honest here, the FIlipinos and Vietnamese don't really have the naval capability nor naval air power to counter the Chinese here. I hate to be pessimistic on our Vietnamese and Filipino friends here (as i value and cherish their relations with Japanese context), but if the Vietnamese or Filipinos were to be suicidal and 'attack' these Chinese bastions. Then, the PLAN SCF would use this as context to declare war and seize these poorly armed and poor defended Vietnamese and Filipino islands.

Right now the region looks like a waiting game. A game of who's going to strike first. The Chinese surely will not strike first; theirs is never the type to attack first (in any engagement , but is a reaction to a perception of military provocation).

 

[nang2]

Problem is, you are thinking on a straight forward approach on the issue.

A simple question arise, did Philippine or Vietnam or Anyone have to attack or pass thru those island (Either a single island or *** a group) to attack other Chinese structure? The answer is no.

Those island are static defences. And being static mean they cannot be move nor being mobile, hence you do not need to touch them, and you can simply by pass them. However, for the defender purpose, you need to deploy your troop there, WITH OR WITHOUT your enemy attacking.

Plus, you missed one very prominent point. Which is you are assuming the different island under Chinese control can work with each other in a mutually supported position. However, the actual reality is between these island, they cannot form a straight and mutually supported line. Which mean each defence installation in a given island is operating on their own when each of the Chinese island were enveloped or flanked with A Vietnamese or Philippine controlled Island. Which in term of warfare, you lost your force multiplier effect on those island and when they ceased to exist as a continuous defensive line, which mean any support have to route thru a potential enemies territories to be able to support each other. And that would either mean China have to launch a massive campaign to capture all other island to minimize the operational loss during the defence, or they would have to evacuate those island as they are very much prompted to be attack or flanked by your enemy.

View attachment 291068

Therefore, the 5 islands currently lies in SCS is actually more of a liability than an asset to Chinese Navy. As it will drain resource to protect them and they are also separated and quite easy target to be taken out one by one.

If God forbid a war broke up, the battle ground wouldn't be just these islands.

 

[Aepsilons]

If God forbid a war broke up, the battle ground wouldn't be just these islands.

That is if all sides would allow diplomatic resolution to falter. I doubt it would come to that. I have faith there are mature minds in Chinese, Vietnamese and Filipino leadership to calm down the tension. Remember even Heaven and Earth cycle through energies.

 

[Place Of Space]

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING here, those islands were actually considered "Chinese territory". Why do i say this? Well back in 1930s, the Imperial Navy seized the islands in south china sea when China had a civil war as a means to "preserve Chinese territory". In fact one of the reasons why Japan invaded China , Indochina and seized the islands in the south china sea -- was to "Preserve Chinese Territorial Continuity", but Japan merely saw itself as a conduit for the realization of a Greater China. Ironically, Japanese Leadership , at the time, had thought Japan as an integral part of 'Greater China', and would act as the means to unify the Empire again. Of course this was done under imperialistic pretense, but the idea of Greater China, as you can see, included a unified china, korea, japan, taiwan, viet nam, and all the islands in the south china sea.

In fact the reason why Japan intervened in south china sea , in the 1930s was because the Japanese Empire did not recognize French claims on the islands through the French Indochina. Japan rescinded French declaration, and forcefully annihilated French outposts in the islands, actually. Then claiming the islands as part of 'Greater China of the Japanese Empire'.

So , i suppose, this is why Japan does not intervene openly in SCS. Because historically speaking, we had always recognized Chinese suzerainty in these islands.



The Imperial Navy's 3rd Fleet 第三艦隊 was nick named "Chinese South Sea Fleet" , lol, actually. It was the fleet that was used to reclaim the islands for 'Greater China of the Japanese Empire'.

Japanese Empire's idea of Greater China is really a great joke. How can you believe in this rubbish excues? Last time, the Japanese propaganda I remember is liberating Asian nations from the European colonial occupation, right.

 

[jhungary]

Vietnam started building their islands first and China is just following suit. Here, I have to admit that Chinese is not very creative and has to "copy" other people's idea. However, your idea of doing nothing does not sound any better.

Again, building the island represent a strategic liability on the issue, it does not matter who does it, it does not actually do anything. Rather, you are also wasting your resource and other item to defend such island with usually non-favourable outcome.

So what does these island give China in term of strategic edge than China got already by using their home bases?? If you cannot give any extra edge other than it look good, then it would be a tactical and strategically liability, it is this simple.

 

[Ewok6102]

China don't has to defence those islands because the small islands are impossible and worthless to defence. Attacking those islands means declare war against China, China will turn to attack the counter-parts' main target, even nuclear weapons will be considered.

Exactly right.

China already possesses technologies which enables us to target any location on Earth. We can even take the fight into space if we wished to.

So who would be stupid enough to declare war by attacking China's islands? If the whoever wants to commit suicide and go down the history books for making one of the mankind's biggest military and polical blunder then be my guest.