It is important to understand the
composition of national debt of a country and whether it is able to fulfill its debt obligations or not.
Borrowing is just one of the many forms of debt in the books.
American economy is productive on the whole, and does not need IMF bailouts and/or loans from other countries to sustain itself from time to time, or do you think this is the case? Why not try to understand the
composition of American national debt first?
Treasury bonds, bro.
Now;
Is a
high debt-to-gdp ratio a matter of concern? Not necessarily.
American debt-to-gdp ratio approached 120% mark in 1945 due to Great Depression followed by WW2, but US pulled through.
In contrast, Venezuela's debt-to-gdp ratio is only 23% but it is an utterly dysfunctional economy.
FYI:
http://theconversation.com/why-the-...es-what-you-should-worry-about-instead-111805
So?
American debt to gdp ratio reached highest in 1945 when the whole world was burning and US was arms supplier to the allied ... At that time the Debt to GDP ratio of the whole world sky rocketed ... UK had 240% france was above 200% ... Japan, China and Germany were the worst hit but their actual financial data is not even available ... Post world war 2 for good 20 years US was the manufacturing hub for the whole world ... All the countries of the world had left with no infrastructure except for US ...
But right now situation is exactly opposite .. US competitors are all strong not dependant on US product and US economy is slowing down and is largely incompetitive except for one sector i.e. technology but that gap is also being reduced by countries such as China, South Korea, Europe and may be India in future ...
Long-term projections are not written in stone because they are based on the assumption that the
existing laws governing taxes and spending will remained unchanged for indefinite period, but this dynamic is unlikely in practice.
Short-term projections are
positive to large extent:
https://www.thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669
Nothing is written on the wall but projections are the best prediction available for the future so any sane person drived by logic follows the prediction ... If you don't want to follow then its illogical but you are free to take illogical choice but I will go with logic
China is an export-driven economy to large extent and its exporters are likely to receive payments in USD from numerous foreign buyers. Therefore, USD-to-Yuan conversion rate is high in China accordingly, and Chinese banks have no choice but to maintain reserves of USD and/or invest in US Treasury bonds for profits? This dynamic makes it possible for China to keep the value of Yuan vis-a-vis USD low and its export base competitive subsequently.
Clear enough, bro?
Not reality ... There are a lot of other simpler methods of keeping the price low .. You can simply print more currency to keep the value of Yuan low or you can keep the interest rates low ... China is keeping the US bond as a hedge against any US miss adventure ... Isn't it weried that US is able to impose restriction on Russia (which is almost a no threat in comparison to China) and even Iran but despite of bullying US major allies such as Vitenam in south CHina sea and Japan no economic sanctions was placed on China ... US has a lot of allegation on intellectual property right issues and even threaten country like Germany to not to award 5G contract to Chinese company but never imposed any sanctions on China ... Is this behavior of US is out of decency? Bro this is a direct result of hedge of US bond ... The moment China feel undue pressure from US which they cannot handle from traditional method they will start dumping US bond ... To cut long story short bonds are the trump card of China's economic war ...
A strong USD is in the best interests of a number of countries including China for multiple reasons, in case you didn't realize.
Strong USD negatively impact American manufacturing base on the whole, and this factor alone is a strong motive for other export-driven economies to maintain the status quo. Americans are understandably frustrated with this dynamic and pushed IMF to declare Yuan as a global reserve currency in 2015 to make sure that its value will appreciate over time but Trump administration's trade war with China had the opposite effect instead. Now, Americans are like OOPS.
From where did you got this analysis ? Do you know US is litterally using dollar as a product ... FOr getting oil what they actually need to do ? They need to print dollar and thats it ... Who in the world will deny this opportunity ... You should read history of dollar... Dollar was nothing but a cheque issued by US central bank and it was supposed to be backed by gold and was encashable in gold ... When France started to encash Dollars against gold US defaulted on that and from that day US dollar had no backing ... WHen US dollar prices started falling they created OPEC and made it mandatory for sale of Oil in dollars meaning that anyone who has to buy oil has to get this piece of paper from US by providing some goods and thats how the current financial system is working to the advantage of just one country in the world ... What was common between Iraq, Libya and Iran? All three of them are willing to sale oil other than dollar and thats why 2 weak countries destoryed and Iran was slapped with sanctions so that no one dear to change this method ...
But now consider if China push the countries to purchase oil in barter then do the countries need to export goods to USA in return of just a piece of paper ?
With the decline of US economy US military power will also be declined to a challengeable level (currently US millitary is not challengeable) and we will see alot of nations start taking decision in their own benefit just like Pakistan and China agreed to transfer there trade in Yuan ...
Demand of USD is unlikely to go down anytime soon due to its sheer strength and being a profitable investment in US Treasury bonds and/or for currency exchange purposes as well.
This is your assumption without any basis ... I hope you understand that soon is relative ... Rewriting of history is counted in decades not years ... so it might take a couple of decades for things to really take shape
Even if numerous countries allow trading to occur in virtually any currency out there, how is this a sound economic policy? Would you want to buy stuff in Iranian rial keeping in view the course of its devaluation over time as a byproduct of American sanctions? It is wise to stick to global reserve currencies for trading activities which are a handful.
What global reserve currencies are we talking about? Primary global currency is USD and volume of others are too low except for regional trade ... Consider even 25% of USD trading gets converted into Yuan and with the size of trade deficit USA has they will be getting more dollars back at home and less outside the economy resulting in decline in demand for USD and eventually a collapse in USA financial system unless someone intervene and the transition happens in such a way that no global impact emerged however, this is unlikely to happen as US will never transfer it power as sole super power peacefully ...
And keep in mind that weakening USD will facilitate American manufacturing base actually. Rozi Roti is in the hands of Allah Almighty, janab.
Unless US turn into an utterly unproductive country (unlikely???), it will do well in the long-term in all fronts.
See above.
American manufacturing will become competitive how? Is the currency devaluation the only factor ? Manufacturing cost is much more than that ... Kindly share your basis of assumption that with devaluation of dollars US will become competitive ...
USA is printing dollars. no one is begging foreigners to hold them. you can argue some of the smaller players have a gun to their heads.
i am glad you are worried. the truth is that if not for the dollar printing press and US economic order the world economy would have collapsed. the truth is that more countries have benefited from this than been hurt. that is why the economic order is holding up. pakistan has not benefited because of low literacy and your adventures in India/Afghanistan
I would not worry about USA's position in the world, It will be number one until 2050. Even after that it will be a powerful number 2 for rest of the century
Lolz ... You must be kidding ... you dont know the basic fact that the debt of US Dollar being quoted here is exclusive of the debt US owned in the shape of US Dollar but I am glad that you do realize the fact that US Dollar circulating outside US is actually US debt to other people ...
Now consider all the dollars circulating in the world start coming back like in 50s and 60s then what will happen ...