The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Lure]

That's very interesting take although any Russian diplomat would disagree with. I am not sure whether siding with Russia on major global issues would by default mean being accountable for all of Russia's behavior. In the case of Ukraine Crisis, China has chosen not to overtly support Russia and adopted an oft-used rhetoric of political solution between the related (direct) parties.

There is a problem here. Actions speak louder than words. I agree with you that China did not make any bold statements about the Crimera issue or Ukraine problem in general, but counteracted against the US sanctions agains Russia which was implemented just because of the Ukraine problem. Hence China taken away the tool to "punish" Russia from USA's hands. Let me ask you something, if you were a US policy maker, would you go on punishing Russia in that conjecture? Or would you pick on the country that keeps Russia "alive" in your next problem with them?

China made it clear that, ignoring China when there is a problem with Russia, is like ignoring US when there is a problem with UK. How would you take US out of the equation if you have a problem with UK? The relation between Russia and China evolved into a similar fashion at the moment when China made US sanction against Russia ineffective.

The US in fact attempted a pact with Russia during the Reset period but for some reason it derailed. That could be due to private interests and in-fighting in Washington. As most of us know, Washington is a not a unitary colossus, but an amalgamation of private and group interests that keep fighting and trying to steer the country to their own benefit. They do it more elegantly due to sophisticated methods and instruments, but, still, this does not rule out the fact that the inner struggle has been rather fierce.

I certainly agree with that.

In my opinion, the winning side decided to estrange Russia and bring it on to China in the form of the Pivot. With Russia on the board or not, I believe China had already been decided as the new enemy. The mistake they made included taking Russia lightly. And China has proven to be an able international actor. None of the neo-liberal and neo-realist postulations by US political scientists have come about.

Well US needs enemies. Every year the military should provide "legitimate" reasons to get that 700 billion $ from US tax payers. There are so many defence contractors, and their lobby is one of the strongest in the US because they are working directly with the government. You know where this is going right? I sometimes even think that, some of the technologies that US claims that is "stolen" from their servers were actually "handed over" to certain parties. That wing of US government certainly wants and enemy in order to legitimize every spent penny on trillion dollar projects.( I never say this to undermine the hardwork of thousands of Chinese engineers on defence projects. Don't get me wrong, China is working miracles in military and in economy/technology. )

But they are not the only actors in US politics. As you've said in the paragraph above US is an amalgamation of private and group interests. There are so many groups in US which sustains great interests by doing business with China. That's why I say the US-China relations might be sustained smoothly.

I believe both Middle East and Russia will loom larger in the US foreign policy, and even largely so if a Republican gets the White House. On the Eastern front, on the other, escalation and war effort against DPRK has been stalled by China. The TPP is all over the place. The effort to stop China's island development program has failed and become the new normal. Today, nobody is talking about it except some MA students who want to get published online. China declared an ADIZ and rendered the DiaoyuDai a disputed island (thanks to Japanese recklessness, I should add).

Sorry but you're wrong on this one. Let's go back to 90's. Everyone in Washington was talking about the ME. Of course there was the occasional "China Rising" publicity but the main topic was the ME. In 2000's Russia started to grasp some public attention. But starting from 2010's it became a standart question in US public that "What will we do with China?". I mean, there are primaries right now and every presidential candidate was asked about how would they deal with China if they were elected. I don't recall such a phenomenon in 90's.

However, as you've stated and I partially agreed with you that, policy planners might even planning for this in 90's after the collapse of the USSR or even before. But still China saving the Russians story grasped a lot of attention and it was clearly what was wanted for so long by "some" guys in Washington. All of the actions above that you enlisted are the very bold actions that China avoided in the past. Do you think is it a coincidence that just after Xi's rise to power in 2012 the disputed Diayou islands were nationalized by Japan? They were private property and both sides (China and Japan) were simply checking that status quo.

China is rising up, I don't have daoubt about that. With that power China makes bold actions. That's also great. However just to be sure that those bold actions are made in the situations that were not staged in an office in Washington. China can very well be an actor of a social engineering policy in US. As you know such things evolve into mass hysteria pretty quick in US public opinion. Even a desert nation which has not even a national identity (Iraq) was shown as the next big "enemy" to US public. Afterwards here comes the people from Lockheed Martin justifies the "barely" working F-35 project, and bills a trillion dollars to US tax payers.

But the trade relations with the US has been just as good. And geopolitical struggle has always been on the agenda. The Taiwan Straits Crisis took place in 1996. They bombed our embassy in Belgrade. The spy-plane accident in the 2000s. So, there has always been a struggle while China made business connections with all over the world. The balancing is in fact stronger these days as the US declines as the representative of the West. Now the UK and Germany can jump onto the AIIB wagon despite the US explicitly says the otherwise. And I cannot think of a better "East-West integration" program than the One-Belt, One-Road program, which has been announced in 2013. I agree that China will have to take more assertive posture but I do not see China being pushed to choose between East or West. China is just too big to choose. It embraces all

Yeah there is an economic balance between East and West. But I was talking about political balance. Conjecture after the Sino-Soviet split and today are not the same. And the paradigm shift is visible. China's policy is aligning more and more with the East as China makes those bold moves.

US-EU problems are not because, EU wants to be politically close to China. Because unlike US, EU rejects to struggle with the East. EU rejects the struggle because their economy are not addicted to war/weapon economy as the case of the US. They clearly see China as the "Eastern Pole" especially after saving Russia, but they don't want to struggle like US. They say the world is enough for every people/ideolohy/policy except for the ones that wants to destroy others. Since China is a market economy, they just want to partner up and make business with you guys. That's why UK, Germany and some other European countries joined AIIB.

That I would strongly disagree with. Especially if influencing US politics means hiring some lobby agency (probably, Jewish?) in Washington (I guess Turkey has done that) and try to influence decision making in the Congress.

Buying US politics is for Armenian diaspora, Israeli lobbyists, Arab oil sheikhs, or Turkish government who wants to fight Nancy Pelossi in Congress. That's just un-great powerish.

I didn't mean that. I just meant an organized Chinese diaspora in US, fostered by Chinese multinational companies which operates in US like Huawei. Chinese diaspora can build it's own lobby, they wouldn't need to hire jewish lobby.

A great power like China would not resort to such tactics. For once, when it comes to China, the US is not that almighty. If China does not like something it vetoes (if it is on the UNSC) like it did two times with respect to Syria, or simply says 'no,' like it did with island development in SCS or ADIZ in ECS.

A great power like China utilizes every possible resource in it's hand to face with it's adversary in a position that only favors itself. Disrupt the US public opinion and US is not functional. Tell people that there is no reason to fight with China and people would be protesting their own governments to stop. It happened in Vietnam. Why need war, if you can take over peacefully? You should read Sun Tzu.

China, in this sense, does not jump on any bandwagon, be it Russian or US. The relationship with Russia is one of the equals. We are not obliged to do anything just for the sake of being a partner (this is unlike NATO which obliges the UK to fight alongside the US in the Middle East even when the general public does not want so). The SCO is not a NATO. China's foreign policy is not formulated in the conventional hard alliance or hub-and-spokes way.

Relationship with Russia are not among equals. China has the upper hand. Because China has the future.

 

[Whazzup]

That's an Indian right there no matter how much one tries to hide. From their China fixation, it is so easy to spot them even when they do false flagging. An Indian eventually becomes an Indian.

I have never seen him posting anything on Indian matters doubt he's Indian and yes he is wrong about us being a pole ain't gonna happen soon.

 

[haviZsultan]

Well we Pakistanis are vouching for an Asian country like China to outstrip America. It would be in our interests and we are sure China would keep Pakistan in mind.

 

[anon45]

Yugoslavia?

Kosovo isn't part of NATO?

I have never seen him posting anything on Indian matters doubt he's Indian and yes he is wrong about us being a pole ain't gonna happen soon.

well I guess i'll take your word for it, I was pretty much only focusing on 'hard' statistics such as geographic size and population, I know little about Indian politics. Likewise with Brazil.

 

[Whazzup]

well I guess i'll take your word for it, I was pretty much only focusing on 'hard' statistics such as geographic size and population, I know little about Indian politics. Likewise with Brazil.

Sir they are right about us I mean India has great human resource and we using it to our advantage too plus our diplomacy gets us alot of business and investment but Infrastucture is where we lack big time yes we have investment but delays and poor planing is not letting us achieve much plus there is also problem in domestic policies which hinter our land acquisition for infrastructure works . Without proper infrastructure India ain't going anywhere .There are other problems like corruption but lets leave it as this ain't topic here.

 

[Post Colonnial]

Well it's true.

Similar to the Cold War, there are 3 main poles. USA, Russia, and China (and the allies of all three).

In a system with 3 poles, the idea is to get 2 of them together in order to gain the advantage.

USA missed a big chance, they could have courted Russia to be at least neutral to their cause.

But now, the Russians won't forget these sanctions for a 100 years. The USA has forever turned Russia into their enemy. An enemy with the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet.

nonsense. China is crumbling and the current 10% fall hasn't even scratched the surface of the 26T writeoff Bloomberg is expecting. Russia is barely making payroll and with the oil crash, even Putin has gone silent - they are bleeding with each barrel! China will outright collapse but for walmart supply contracts

 

[Zsari]

Kosovo isn't part of NATO?

Kosovo? Kosovo was part of Serbia, the breakup of Yugoslavia however is far more than just Kosovo.

 

[gambit]

If you rely only on this forum for news, you would think that China is supreme global power and the US is a crumbling mess.

 

[ArsalanKhan21]

...... At the moment both countries appear to be natural born allies, ....

Russian empire have defeated China in 18-19th centuries and annexed Chinese territory. There will be conflict between the two in the future. They are allies at the moment against common adversaries.

 

[opruh]

Russia can't really be considered a typical regional player as you say, because its sheer geographical size precludes it.
That said it is the weakest of the poles economically and soft power wise, the others being US, EU, and China.

potential emerging poles being Brazil and India.

I wouldn't call Russia's location strategic, it's size is as much a curse as it is a benefit.

What is increasingly likely is, short of a stunning turnaround in Russian foreign policy, Russia will be beholden to the pole of China economically, in time becoming a secondary power to it as China holds more sway over the Russian economy, and Russia has nowhere else to turn.


An ascendant India could change this.

EU is not that united, they should collapse in the near future while India will forever be behind. In short there are only three powers, USA, China and Russia. The team with the two powers in it will simply win hence good news for China and Russia.

If you rely only on this forum for news, you would think that China is supreme global power and the US is a crumbling mess.

US is already crumbling.

 

[opruh]

US stocks plunge in early trading after Chinese stock rout - The San Francisco Examiner

***

Comment:

Is this a good thing or a bad thing? My answer is: "it depends on who you are, and what your outlook and bearings are, and where you see your goals in financial planning are."

For the stock gamblers, short-term speculators, and those looking at "churning" and flipping stocks, these are bad times.

For the China-bashing, Chinese-demonizing US investors, i.e. those who look at China purely as a casino, and not interested in long-term China, but only in pure profits, short-term, and nothing else, this is the time to panic and flee.

But those of us who have followed China and love its governance and model of economic planning look at China's economic correction, as seen through the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market rout, the shift from an export-based economy to a domestic-consumer-services based economy, with a re-direction into the new tech economy that is information-knowledge-based, in the e-commerce trajectory that is dramatically different from the mega-malls, bricks and mortar retailing that China's heady urban bling-bling economy... think that this is a correction and overhaul that is long overdue and must be made, with lots of pains and impact upon a privileged, albeit increasingly over-exuberant, and hyper-stimulated sector within China, who have lost all sense of proportionality nor grasp what China's "model of socialism with Chinese characteristics" is all about.

True, China's domestic economy, which has fueled the demand for global natural resources, and construction materials, such as cement, steel, fossil fuel, minerals, chemicals, particularly from those countries which have heavily depended on China as an export market for their resources, such as Australia, Brazil, the U.S., Canada, et al, are being impacted by China's economic correction, with a slowdown in imports of raw materials.

It is to be expected.

All in all, a 5% to 7% GDP growth is not bad for China, and this correction is a reflection of China's economic decision to shift away from an overheated, heady capitalist model of growth, and replacing it with a more balanced growth model that refocuses on social-economic priorities which take care of the vast masses of working Chinese who are not the urban elite, the compradores, and those weaned on export-driven manufacturing.

It is time to re-calibrate and look at a more rational China economic growth model that factors in a more equitable distribution of the wealth, more holistic health care, more sensible housing policies, rather than a hyper-speculative feverish frenzy, cleaner air, cleaner water, less traffic gridlock, a shift away from private automobile obsession, more environmental sustainable growth, better quality of life, a more socially responsible intelligentsia who are not consumed by "fa-jai" (wealth pursuit) as the end-all-and-be-all. And yes, better schools and education which is not consumed by "chu-guo liu xueh" and "western-moon worshipping" and US fellowships and scholarships to study abroad.

This alleged exodus of "panic" or "flight" money is to be expected. But China is not a sinking ship, the Titanic.

China is merely cleaning up and cleansing its big ship of rodents, vectors, rats, maggots, and the socially-reckless, ethically-irresponsible busisnessmen, their corrupt officials who back up their cronyistic business practices, and the foreign-western-US carpet baggers and hustlers.

For these folks, China is not a good place to be at this time.

Welcome to the new ride in China's new "Belt and Road" trajectory. It is not for those who are in it purely for a quick ride and fast profits.

China is not for everyone. Specially if you are a hustler, a stock casino gambler, and someone who is disinterested in "socialism with Chinese characteristics."

Edward Liu

@tranquilium , @Keel , @terranMarine , @AndrewJin , @opruh , @Shotgunner51

When China sneezes, usa catches cold.

 

[Post Colonnial]

one has to really wonder what these guys are inhaling. China needs a near 10% growth rate to service the nearly $30T debt bubble they have built up just in the past decade (look up Cinda's default for example and how CCB was forced to extend the bonds by 10 years when Cinda defaulted). This is not even considering the eventual write downs that are, according to People's Daily, $6T and according to non-governmental estimates likely much higher.

Russia is living pay check to pay check with its ONLY export oil having been shattered.

These are two even thinking of themselves in the same class of US is laughable.

 

[Luca1]

nonsense. China is crumbling and the current 10% fall hasn't even scratched the surface of the 26T writeoff Bloomberg is expecting. Russia is barely making payroll and with the oil crash, even Putin has gone silent - they are bleeding with each barrel! China will outright collapse but for walmart supply contracts

China is not collapsing. And you are not Gordon Chang. China is not where U.S. Is at now. But it's the one with potential. India,however, will split into many smaller countries like how it historically exists.

 

[Post Colonnial]

China is not collapsing. And you are not Gordon Chang. China is not where U.S. Is at now. But it's the one with potential. India,however, will split into many smaller countries like how it historically exists.

you obviously do not read economic analysis. The chinese debt trap was predicted as early as 2009 when it started assuming alarming proportion. When Cinda could not repay its loan on due, the CCB was forced by the Chinese gvt to extend the loan by 10 years! And that is a drop in the ocean.

Sure China has potential but they will realize it ONLY after a revolution that throws away current form of communist rule and let people use their brains.

As to India splitting, again you obviously forget that after so many decades, the country just elected a party with absolute majority. No coalition, no marriages of convenience etc. Does that sound like a country splitting or uniting? Frankly India is showing how democracy is done in spite of abject poverty. No wonder it makes certain people make foaming statements such as yours!

 

[XiangLong]

Well it's true.

USA missed a big chance, they could have courted Russia to be at least neutral to their cause.

Yeah, having Russia to act as cannon fodder... Uhm... I mean ''ally'' against China and have both Russia and China destroy each other, was and still is the wet dream of many Americans like the late Tom Clancy.

I would never forget the ridiculous scenario in ''The Bear and The Dragon'' in which China, after a series of equally ridiculous precedents, started an all-out war with Russia by invading Siberia! After which Tom Clancy's 'MURICA comes to rescue the ''helpless'' Russians by admitting Russia into NATO, and while just only US naval and air bombings seem to make the situation desperate enough for China to (attempt to) start an all-out nuclear war against BOTH Russia and the US! Meanwhile, a single CIA-run website with CNN coverage of the war and some drone footage, manages to spur a Chinese student revolution, in which some ''reformist'' eventually takes over, arrest the politburo, and pave the way for China to ''democracy''. Oh and get this jewel in this entire story... A NATO Apache helicopter manages to shoot down one of the Chinese ICBMs in mid-flight!