The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Raphael]

Good effort, but I feel like people have simply stopped trusting credit rating agencies. The big Western agencies continue to give the US an 'AAA' rating, despite the US having threatened, on multiple occasions, to default on their debt. It's all become a complete farce.

 

[Jlaw]

Good effort, but I feel like people have simply stopped trusting credit rating agencies. The big Western agencies continue to give the US an 'AAA' rating, despite the US having threatened, on multiple occasions, to default on their debt. It's all become a complete farce.

Ordinary people do not care but corpations continue to use these "sources". Most unfortunate.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

It's our politicians that are gambling away our economy, sovereignty and our health. Right now they are negotiating the TTIP behind closed doors, not even the MoEP get any substantial information about the ongoing negotiations, much less the ordinary citizens of the EU. So much for our great democracy.

Compared to the US politicians, i found that most German politicians are much more conservative and prudent, and also they believe in more tangible growth than the intangible growth.

 

[Götterdämmerung]

Good effort, but I feel like people have simply stopped trusting credit rating agencies. The big Western agencies continue to give the US an 'AAA' rating, despite the US having threatened, on multiple occasions, to default on their debt. It's all become a complete farce.

Stop calling them Western agencies, they are in toto US agencies, the EU, too, was victim of their frauds.

Compared to the US politicians, i found that most German politicians are much more conservative and prudent, and also they believe in more tangible growth than the intangible growth.

Unfortunately, many members of the established parties, e.g. CDU, SPD, FDP and the Greens are also members of the dozens of Transatlantic Clubs. They are selling us out for personal gains.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Good.

Especially since we hold the majority of the world's currency reserves, at $4 trillion.

 

[Aepsilons]

(Reuters) - For once, China looks to have done Japan a favour.

In clinching a $400 billion deal last month to buy Russian gas, China may end up helping out its old political and economic rival in a way that matters hugely for Japan - energy security.

The China-Russia agreement, the biggest gas deal ever, unlocks new gas supplies and could bring down gas prices across Asia, a development that would pay the biggest dividends for Japan, the world's top buyer of liquefied natural gas.

Other big Asian gas buyers such as South Korea and Taiwan could also benefit.

The deal, signed on May 21, cemented a dramatic shift in energy flows from the West to the East. Gas will be transported to China via a new pipeline linking Siberian gas fields from 2018, building up gradually to 38 billion cubic metres a year.

China has massive gas needs, but access to more of the fuel is also vital for Japan since its utilities pay the world's highest prices. Japan buys about a third of global LNG shipments and spent a record 7.06 trillion yen ($70 billion) last year, mostly for electricity generation to replace idled nuclear reactors following the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

There are hopes that piping Russian gas to China will create a new price benchmark that could cut prices for Asian LNG buyers as well as providing new gas sources.

"This will surely put downward pressure on gas prices and some say it is the beginning of the end of the Asia premium," Masumi Kimura, a researcher at Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp (JOGMEC), said in a note, referring to the higher price paid for gas in Asia compared to other parts of the world.

Russia's Gazprom declined to confirm what price the deal with China was struck, but industry sources say it translates to about $10-$10.50 per million British thermal units, an international pricing standard, well below the current level of around $13 for spot Asian cargoes.

A source at one of the biggest Japanese buyers of gas shipped in liquid form said that the new Russian gas should absorb some Chinese pressure on LNG demand in Asia.

Others were cautious, however, over the potential impact.

"The Russian gas will be coming into the northeast of China, into a market that was never going to be served by LNG in the first place," said Gavin Thompson, head of Asia-Pacific gas and power at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

RUSSIAN ENERGY

Takashi Hayasaki, general manager of the Japan Petroleum Development Association, said the China-Russia pipeline would "also spur further development of gas fields in Siberia that could be a source of LNG for Japan.".

Japan's Russian purchases have grown with oil and gas flowing from Sakhalin island to the north of Japan since 2009 and oil via the East Siberian Pacific Ocean extension from 2012.

Imports of Russian LNG rose 3.1 percent last year to 8.57 million tonnes, or 9.8 percent of total imports. The ratio is up from 4.3 percent in 2009 when Japan started Russian gas imports.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met Russian President Vladimir Putin five times in the last 18 months, more than any other leader. Amid a flurry of agreements there was talk that closer energy ties could come with the resolution of an island dispute dating from the end of World War II.

But the diplomatic efforts to take a bigger role in gas projects appear to have fizzled out since the Ukraine crisis, which has led to sanctions on Moscow that Tokyo has supported.

Gazprom and Royal Dutch Shell operate Russia's only LNG plant on Sakhalin, with Japan's Mitsuibishi Corp and Mitsui & Co as junior partners.

HOLDING OFF LONG-TERM CONTRACTS

The Chinese deal has also revived talk of a pipeline from Russia to Japan. A group of 33 ruling party lawmakers plans to lobby Abe to sign a deal on a gas link with Putin at an estimated cost to build of about $6 billion compared with more than $40 billion for the Chinese pipeline.

But Daiske Harada, an economist with JOGMEC focusing on Russia, said Rosneft and Gazprom were more interested in pushing exports by LNG to the Pacific market, not by pipeline.

Gazpom plans to build a second plant in Vladivostok by 2018, with a capacity of 10 and 15 million tonnes of LNG per year, and also a spur to the Chinese pipeline to bring gas to Vladivostok.

Rosneft and ExxonMobil also plan an LNG plant on Sakhalin to produce 5 million tonnes a year from 2018.

Along with Russian supplies, Japan could also benefit with the United States due to start shipping shale gas from as early as 2015. Other potential sources include West Africa and Canada.

And faced with potential new supplies, Japanese buyers are holding off from signing long-term LNG contracts starting from around 2017 until there is more clarity on nuclear power, said a source in the natural gas division of a Japanese trading firm.





Reference: Reuters

 

[TaiShang]

China, Russia present new joint draft to prevent outer space war

China and Russia have jointly submitted an updated draft international treaty on banning the deployment of weapons in outer space to a UN-sponsored disarmament conference.
The US and Israel have repeatedly voted against UN resolutions on the prevention of an arms race in outer space.

The updated draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects, was presented at a plenary session of the Conference on Disarmament, the world’s sole multilateral forum for disarmament negotiations.

The new draft treaty prepared by Russia and China is a revised version of the one the two allies had presented earlier, including definition and scope of the treaty, organizations as well as mechanisms to solve disputes, said Wu Haitao, China’s ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary for disarmament affairs.

The Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects (PPWT) was first proposed by China and Russia in February 2008 as an international legally binding treaty that would outlaw the weaponization of space.

Wu said this new draft treaty is aimed at advancing the Conference on Disarmament toward negotiations for signing an international legal document.

Space assets like satellites are at increasing threat of being disabled from hostile countries as risk of cyber-warfare grows.

Beijing has warned of the growing risks of the weaponization of outer space with the rapid development of space technology, which the Chinese Ambassador said will “hinder the peaceful use of outer space, break global strategic balance and stability and hamper nuclear disarmament”.

The existing legislation on outer space cannot prevent the use or the threat of force against outer space assets, Wu said.

Telecommunications, GPS navigation systems, power etc could be easily switched off with the disabling of satellites in the backdrop of a militarized outer space.

China has stressed during the UN conference on the urgent need to sign a new international legal document to prevent the weaponization of outer space.

China and Russia are willing to include suggestions and ideas from other parties and continue to improve the draft treat in order to lay a foundation for the start of practical negotiations at the Conference on Disarmament, Wu said.

 

[TaiShang]

Checkers Versus Chess & Weiqi

For quite some time, we have been predicting that the Russians and Chinese will, at some point, bring an end to the petrodollar system that has virtually guaranteed the US the position of having its currency be the world's default currency.

This position has allowed the US, in recent decades, to go on a borrowing and currency-printing spree, the likes of which the world has never seen.

First, a Little History

It's important that we back up a bit here to have a look at how this came about in the first instance.

In 1971, the US government, under Richard Nixon, took the US off the gold standard. This meant that, from that point on, the dollar was backed by nothing. However, as long as the dollar was accepted as legitimate currency (even though it was now mere paper), not only could the game continue as before, but the US would then be free to print as much "currency" as it wished. It would also be free to borrow as much as it wished, thereby building as large an economic house of cards as it wished.

Of course, the foolhardiness of this decision would not be immediately clear to all and sundry. It would take some time before the chickens would come home to roost.

Enter the Petrodollar

Back in 1971, it was necessary to assure that the dollar would retain its position in world trade as the world's premiere currency, in spite of the fact that it was no longer backed by anything. The US reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia that, in trade for arms and protection, the Saudis would denominate all future oil sales, worldwide, in dollars. The other OPEC countries fell into line, and the "petrodollar" was assured.

Returning to the present, we have stated for some time that the methods by which the US, the Russians, and the Chinese have been playing the game have been very different. The Chinese, for over 4000 years, have played the game of wéiqí, and the wéiqí philosophy is a primary part of Chinese philosophy. The idea is to distract your opponent whilst you subtly surround him. Once he is enclosed, with no support from outside, it's game over.

By contrast, the Russians are perennial chess players. Chess, played correctly, involves the concept of imagining each move that your opponent may possibly make. For each possible move, you imagine each possible move you could make and how your opponent might retaliate. You then select your best move. A good chess player is one who has learned to imagine several moves in advance. Therefore, once your opponent makes his move, you are never taken off-guard. You are prepared for anything he does.

Mister Putin is a consummate chess player, and since he has returned to office, each time the US has made a move, he has been ready. Each of his moves has not only countered the US, but trumped them. At every step that the US gets tough on Russia, Russia immediately says, in effect, "Okay, remember, you brought this on yourselves." Russia then makes a move that puts the US in a far worse position than it was before.

The amazing fact here is that the US method recognizes neither wéiqí nor chess. They appear to be playing checkers. The US has, since World War II, used the approach of "The Yanks are Comin'." The US has been the biggest boy in the schoolyard and has, through a combination of bluster and bullying, been able to intimidate the world and, as a result, get virtually everything it wanted for a very long time. Conventional diplomacy has taken a back seat with the US, and, particularly since the administration of George Bush, the US has very much ramped up its "biggest boy in the schoolyard" approach, much to the irritation of the rest of world.

Here Come Those Chickens

But now, the US is broke, and its stature as the biggest boy has begun to wane. The other kids in the schoolyard are playing smart, whilst the US is still playing tough…and it's no longer working.

Claiming that Russia was overstepping its power in the Ukraine (when, in fact, it was the US that was guilty of this move), the US applied economic sanctions to Russia. The US media treated this as a major blow to Russia, from which the Russkies had better back off if they knew what was good for them.

But, in fact, this served as an open invitation for Russia to retaliate. Since the very first thrust by the US, each parry and thrust by the Russians has been both effective and well planned. (It should be borne in mind that the latest announcement that Russia would not accept US dollars in payment for gas could only be enforced if Russia could get its international gas customers to agree. At the time of announcement, nine out of ten customers had, in fact agreed. These decisions were, unquestionably, not reached overnight. This chess move was planned well in advance.)

When Russia announced that Gazprom, the largest gas supplier in the world, would no longer be accepting US dollars from its clients, the West was shaken by the news.

End of the Petrodollar

So, does this spell the end for the petrodollar? Not just yet. But it does add a nail to the petrodollar coffin, and a rather large nail, at that. It most certainly announces to the world that, if the US continues its schoolyard bully approach, both the Russians and the Chinese are more than ready. They have greater power than the US gave them credit for and, as we are witnessing, are more adept at the game itself.

Time after time, the US announces a flimsy new policy that is half-baked at best, and the US media announce, in effect, "This'll show 'em!" And yet, at every turn, the Sino-Russian tag-team deals blow after blow to US hegemony in the world.

The US is at war with China and Russia. It's an undeclared war, and it's monetary warfare, not military warfare. Yes, there are the military distractions, such as in the Ukraine and the Middle East, but the primary war is being fought monetarily.

If we observe the Asian responses to the US attacks in this war, and assess them objectively, we see that the Asians do not seek to kill off the US. In each battle, they, like skilled bullfighters, deflect the charging bull, then thrust the sword forward, wounding him again and again with every charge.

As this approach is becoming a pattern, it would indicate that the Russians and Chinese, much like a bullfighter, are wearing out the bull and provoking him to lose enough blood that, soon, he will no longer be able to continue the fight.

There will be no H-bomb moment here. No point at which the US, to the entire world's surprise, suddenly self-destructs. Just as Rome wound down 2000 years ago, we shall observe a similar winding down of the US. (Although there will be many sudden crashes along the way, the entire process will stretch out for years.)

And I believe the US will be kept alive by the victors. It will remain in business as a country and will serve the East, particularly as a consumer of Eastern-produced goods.

But it will cease to be the world's empire. Much as the British Empire wound down as a result of the world wars, the US will be greatly diminished in power.

More and more, US residents are coming to realise that the "recovery" that is forever being heralded as "just around the corner" will not arrive. No "green shoots," no "shovel-ready jobs" will materialise. The US are attempting to win a chess game by playing checkers, and they will not succeed. The US's place in the world will be a casualty of that error, as will be the US economy.

[Thank you to Huaqiao 2013 at CDF for the original post]

 

[cnleio]

Cold War with Russian, Economic War with Chinese.

Piss off Russia & China together ...

 

[TaiShang]

Two great nations joining forces.

“China-Russia partnership enters new stage”
The BRICS Post

Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (R) shakes hands with Mikhail Babich, Russia’s presidential envoy to the Volga Federal District in Samara, Russia, on June 23, 2014 [Xinhua]

At a forum on developing cities around China’s Yangtze and Russia’s Volga rivers, top Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi said the China-Russia strategic partnership has “entered a new stage”.

Yang held talks with Valentina Matviyenko, Chairperson of the Federation Council of Russian Federation on Tuesday in Moscow.

Yang co-chaired the forum in the Russian city of Samara in the southwest earlier this week, which is expected to boost Moscow’s diplomatic and economic ties with China.

Yang said, “China is willing to carry out strategic cooperation with Russia” to promote “world and regional peace, stability and development”.

“The cooperation between noncontiguous regions of the two countries should be strengthened for a win-win deal,” he added.

The forum is seen as a step to implement the consensus reached by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at a conference held in Shanghai last month.

Xi hosted Putin in China last month during which the two allies signed a massive $400 billion natural gas supply deal.

The deal is aimed at offsetting attempts by the EU and US to throttle the Russian economy through sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

Russia is a major trade partner of China. In the first four months of 2014, trade volume grew by 3.4 per cent year on year to $29.06 billion, official statistics showed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet “ally and friend” Xi Jinping during the 6th BRICS Summit in Brazil on July 15th.

Apart from strengthening the BRICS bloc of emerging economies, the two leaders are slated to hold bilateral talks.

 

[xunzi]

A tag team of China-Russia would be unstopable in the 21st cenutry. Energy + manpower is invincible! @vostok

 

[TaiShang]

China's source diversification strategy is working amazingly well. Although it is geographically remoter to the Middle East than (say, India), and more vulnerable to maritime threats, vast land borders to the energy rich Central Asia and Russia seem to be a blessing and China has been capitalizing on this amazingly well. There are alrady five overland (crude oil natural gas) pipelines from three directions.

Kazakh Senate nod to Russia-China oil transit
The BRICS Post


Kazakhstan and Russia, both top oil producers, signed the agreement to transport the Russian oil through Kazakhstan in December 2013 [Xinhua]

Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified an agreement Thursday between the Central Asian nation and Russia on cooperation in transporting Russian oil to China.

Kazakhstan and Russia, both top oil producers, signed the agreement to transport the Russian oil through Kazakhstan in December 2013.

Under the agreement, Kazakhstan agreed to provide long-term access to pipelines linking the three countries for the transport of 7-10 million tons of oil per year.

It is free to replace Russian oil with Kazakh oil, provided it is of the same quantity and quality specified in the contract with China.

Both Kazakhstan and Russia are seeking alternative routes for their oil exports in the face of a tougher third round of sanctions against Moscow over the Ukraine crisis.

The presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus signed a treaty last month forging the Eurasian Economic Union, a vast trading bloc.

If successful, the EaEU would unite up to 217 million people, says Lode Vanoost, a former deputy Belgian Parliament speaker.

[URL='http://thebricspost.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/pipeline-gas.jpg']“The EaEU is among many other things an answer to the EU, a perfectly legitimate one. The EU and the US may not like it, that is their right, but the days in which everything in the world was their ‘business’ are over,” writes Vanoost.[/URL]

 

[Globenim]

Thank you U.S.A for forcing EU to sanction Russia DD

 

[TaiShang]

Russia, China nod to integration of satellite systems
RT News

China and Russia have signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate in developing navigation satellite systems.

The document to let China’s Beidou and Russia’s GLONASS collaborate, was signed on Monday by the China Satellite Navigation Office and Russian Federal Space Agency on the sidelines of the on-going China-Russia expo in Harbin.

China’s homegrown Beidou Navigation Satellite System began providing initial positioning, navigation and timing operational services to China in December 2011. Beidou is compatible and interoperable with the world’s other major global navigation satellite systems, including Russia’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS).

“We’d like to work with our Chinese friends in several space services – in cartography and communications. In the future, we’d like to create our own radio-resistant equipment and spacecraft vehicles,” Russian Vice Premier Dmitry Rogozin was quoted by Itar Tass agency.

Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang said in Harbin on Monday that the two countries will establish a working mechanism for collaboration in space exploration.

Ran Chengqi, director of the China Satellite Navigation Office, said Russia and China plan to build monitoring stations in each other’s territory, which will promote the integration of the two satellite navigation systems.

“Our cooperation in the field of satellite navigation never targets a third party,” he said, adding that the integration of multiple satellite navigation systems must be the trend ahead internationally.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said the two systems, GLONASS and Beidou, “fit together well”.

Russia is also looking forward to cooperating with China in other aerospace fields, such as “the exploration of the Moon and Mars, rocket engine-building, piloted cosmonautics, the development of a long-range wide-body passenger airliner and modernization of the Russian heavy Mil Mi-26 helicopter”.

Russia is a major trade partner of China. In the first four months of 2014, the bilateral trade volume grew by 3.4 per cent year on year to $29.06 billion.

Rogozin said bilateral trade between the two countries could reach $200 billion before the slated target year of 2020.

“We have a task set by the leaders of Russia and China to raise the volume of our trade and economic relations to $200 billion by 2020. But I believe that if we proceed at such high rates and develop large, primarily infrastructural projects to help unite energy of Russia and China, then we believe that this figure can be achieved before that time,” Rogozin said.

 

[xunzi]

Let go to Moon and Mars together with our Russian friend @vostok