The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[Stephen Cohen]

I hope China get more and more dependent on Russia for energy.

How will that help USA

 

[Viet]

The backbone of US foreign policy is still the United Nation system designed by President Roosevelt. US is just trying to see if it can get more than that. If not, it will withdraw to the United Nation system.


The whole world is in free fall. We are entering the stage of anti-globalization because workers in developed countries get really hurt.

In 1980, US had 19 million manufacturing jobs with 200 million populations; but in 2016, US only has 13 million manufacturing jobs with 300 million populations. From now on, manufacturing factories have to go closer to the market, not cheaper jobs. Many Chinese companies have already started factories in US to meet this demand.


Closer to the market, not closer to cheaper labors, will become the mainstream. That's why China invests heavily in Europe, America, Russia and India to protect market shares of Chinese products through revenue and jobs sharing. Samsung's investment in Vietnam proved to be a big mistake. Its market share in China and United States has dropped significantly.

Global trade dropped 13.8% in 2015, but world GDP still increased 3.1%. This just reflects that more factories move closer to the market. Instead Chinese share of global exports jumped in 2015.
China Economic Watch | China Outperforms in Global Trade

how is Samsung's investment in Vietnam proved to be a big mistake?
I am willing to bet, in 5 years, the company will close all factories in China and move to VN.

 

[Abacin]

I hope China get more and more dependent on Russia for energy.

Both China and Russia have resources to build independent economy. Both also know very well about diversification and anchoring. Leaders such as Gorbachev are very rare and won't repeat with a century; otherwise China and Russia couldn't make to the current level. United States cannot behave with this kind of mood: Once you pick up some golds, you can pick up gold again. Since the fall of Soviet Union, the wisdom of United States degrades a lot due to hegemony.

how is Samsung's investment in Vietnam proved to be a big mistake?
I am willing to bet, in 5 years, the company will close all factories in China and move to VN.

They have factories in Vietnam and they lost their market share in China. If they close all factories in China, they will have no business in China. China, United States, Europe and India all are using domestic market as a tool to promote domestic technology and jobs.

Old model to develop economy through export-oriented economy with cheap labor is dead. China was lucky to catch the last train. Rising protection and coming of robots make cheap labor less important while market becomes the most important in deciding factory location. The attraction of investments will be decided by the size of local market.

 

[gambit]

How will that help USA

A China dependency on Russia for energy does not 'help' US directly, but what it does is to introduce a vulnerability into China. Remember when all the people on this forum were cheering for the US to 'collapse' because of if so-and-so reduce oil output, blockade the Strait of Hormuz, etc...etc... ? While the bulk of that is sheer fantasy, there is a grain of truth that our oil import introduced a vulnerability. The bulk of US oil import is from Canada and Mexico, so that vulnerability is small. On the other side of the world, China and Russia are not exactly friendly acquaintances, let alone allies, and much farther from friends.

 

[Viet]

They have factories in Vietnam and they lost their market share in China. If they close all factories in China, they will have no business in China. China, United States, Europe and India all are using domestic market as a tool to promote domestic technology and jobs.

Old model to develop economy through export-oriented economy with cheap labor is dead. China was lucky to catch the last train. Rising protection and coming of robots make cheap labor less important while market becomes the most important in deciding factory location. The attraction of investments will be decided by the size of local market.

nonsense. China and Asean have FTA. take Samsung. she can relocate all factories to VN and export smartphones to CN, even the market share is declining in CN. all Samsung needs is import stuffs from CN, which can´t be made in VN. you can dream of making expensive stuffs by robots, and shunt cheap labor to other countries.

can repeat to other industries such as garment and textile. you can enjoy your high paid jobs for a few, while the mass will struggle to find jobs.

 

[GCTom]

Russia is happy to sell oil to Europe/Germany as well as to China at fair market price. However, the difference is China will not use its large-oil-customer status to attack or threaten Russia.

It is good to see these two countries are continuing to develop their economic ties. It will only benefit the people of both nations.

 

[TaiShang]

In fact one can take this into one step further and define a relationship model that is completely opposite of what the author has described. Thanks to a similar World view about the opposition to political leadership of the US, China and Russia enjoys a warm economic relationship. Without a similar World view I can't imagine such a warm economic relationship. Thus Chinese and Russian relationship would be very warm even if there weren't any sweet trade deals between them, and thanks to those political ties we see those trade deals. Not the other way around.

I totally agree. In fact, in an academic article I jointly published, we argued that China-Russia relations are based on ideational similarities, hence, structurally sound. Conjectural differences, for that reason, won't negatively impact the overall strategic partnership.

China and Russia are forming a very different form of major power relationship, which fits very well China's long-held foreign policy doctrine.

Even if there were no trade surplus favoring the Chinese side a capital accumulation in terms of RMB is unlikely. Since RMB is recenlty approved as a reserve currency by IMF, a lot of central bank worldwide planning to enlarge their RMB stockpile. Hence Russia can even trade with 3rd party countries using RMB.

The pressure by the US is only accelerating the process. But, even without the presence of the US, China and Russia were destined to be close allies because of geography, ideology and geopolitics.

WHY HAS RUSSIA AND CHINA NOT FORMED AN ALLIANCE ALL THESE TIME EVEN UP TO NOW? Lol I dont see any country stopping both countries from doing so.

Because they do not want to. These two countries ae different beasts and they won't repeat Washington's strategy. The lack of a formal alliance (which China has with nobody) does not mean lack of strategic depth. If you really want to try the extend of it, wage an open war on Russia and see how far China is willing to go. I assure you China will go ten Korea Wars on you.

Why has RUSSIA NEVER(and still doesn't) support China when it comes to your core interests and vice versa? Is it also because of the 'evil' west manipulations? Lol

Don't speak "Ahmedinejad" language, this does not make you look funny but irritating.

Russia supported China when it needed; but, China is in no need of support at the moment. The relationship we are constructing is deeper and requires no need for show of force like the US stages stunts every month to prove South Korea how great an ally they are.

We are just a different super powers and we like to catch you off-guard.

Name me one SINGLE time Russia has ever publicly voiced its suppory to China regarding your disputes with other Asian countries, taiwan or even against the U.S. lol With allies/strategic partners like that who needs enemies?

Lots of silent support. And lots of joint statements at the very conceptual level. That's why we really care; to be on the same line conceptually. For Taiwan or SCS, China is in no need for overt help because we can handle it just well. But, for example, China played an instrumental role to break the effect of your sanctions on Russia, and will do more if it needs to.

And, institutionally, for example, China and Russia agreed to align OBOR and EEU to create an Eurasian juggernaut. I guess this cooperation is no less important than your fossilized Atlantic alliance.

Thing is Russia just has a normal business relationship with China, not different from U.S/Wesr-China massive business/investment ties. They only difference is that they have been selling you all sorts of weapons systems these past decades, so we cant overtly sell sophisticated weapons to you people, apart from parts, engines, 'civilian helicopters' etc.

No. Ideationally, we have no commonality with you. You are just a business partner to us; a small island out of many. We will never have any ideological, historical, and conceptual affinity with you. At the highest level of international politics (UNSC) we will always side with Russia, not you. So, when, it comes to rule making and idea making, Russia is China's only partner/ally.

 

[Beast]

A China dependency on Russia for energy does not 'help' US directly, but what it does is to introduce a vulnerability into China. Remember when all the people on this forum were cheering for the US to 'collapse' because of if so-and-so reduce oil output, blockade the Strait of Hormuz, etc...etc... ? While the bulk of that is sheer fantasy, there is a grain of truth that our oil import introduced a vulnerability. The bulk of US oil import is from Canada and Mexico, so that vulnerability is small. On the other side of the world, China and Russia are not exactly friendly acquaintances, let alone allies, and much farther from friends.

China is switching to wind farm, solar and nuclear to power most of its electricity and heavily promote electric locomotive like train, car and bus. The China bus already on track to switch to 90% electric in 5 years time. Already China import of coal in 2015 has dropped 3.6% despite increase of electricity usage. Slowly import of fossil fuel will drop too.

Remember, China still produce 45% of its own fossil fuel for her need. Plus if really need, it can drill the shale gas.

 

[Abacin]

nonsense. China and Asean have FTA. take Samsung. she can relocate all factories to VN and export smartphones to CN, even the market share is declining in CN. all Samsung needs is import stuffs from CN, which can´t be made in VN. you can dream of making expensive stuffs by robots, and shunt cheap labor to other countries.

can repeat to other industries such as garment and textile. you can enjoy your high paid jobs for a few, while the mass will struggle to find jobs.

You are naive in foreign business. If the government is not happy with you, it can have many ways to create troubles for you. For example, Huawei is very difficult to penetrate into US market although it has No. 1 share in the market. The important reason is that Huawei makes everything including chips by itself while other Chinese smartphones players still use chips from US companies. Huawei's market share in United States has no job values to United States. Similarly US government always tries to check European or Japanese cars to help domestic auto makers.

Robots have entered the explosive stage. It may still no cheap. But every country wants to protect their own manufacturing factories so that robot R&D can be carried out and the country can have a foot on robotic manufacturing. Companies working on robotic manufacturing all get subsidies no matter in China and United States. With protectionism, products made from those robotic manufacturing factories can compete well with those made from cheap labors elsewhere for many industries.

The core of Industry 4.0 is robotics.

 

[vtnsx]

Russia, America support you in the SC Sea?
Don't consume too much drugs, boy, that's not good for you!

lol, no i think he sniffs a lot of bullsh1t in the air. It got him drowsy.

You are naive in foreign business. If the government is not happy with you, it can have many ways to create troubles for you. For example, Huawei is very difficult to penetrate into US market although it has No. 1 share in the market. The important reason is that Huawei makes everything including chips by itself while other Chinese smartphones players still use chips from US companies. Huawei's market share in United States has no job values to United States. Similarly US government always tries to check European or Japanese cars to help domestic auto makers.

Robots have entered the explosive stage. It may still no cheap. But every country wants to protect their own manufacturing factories so that robot R&D can be carried out and the country can have a foot on robotic manufacturing. Companies working on robotic manufacturing all get subsidies no matter in China and United States. With protectionism, products made from those robotic manufacturing factories can compete well with those made from cheap labors elsewhere for many industries.

The core of Industry 4.0 is robotics.

Yet, you are naive in building business relationship.

 

[mike2000 is back]

. If you really want to try the extend of it, wage an open war on Russia and see how far China is willing to go. I assure you China will go ten Korea Wars on you.

China will go to war with the West if Russia is attacked?? LMAO.
That was funny dude. You got good sarcasm I must confess.
First time I have heard this in my entire life. Good one mate. Lool

You are just a business partner to us; a small island out of many. We will never have any ideological, historical, and conceptual affinity with you. At the highest level of international politics (UNSC) we will always side with Russia, not you. So, when, it comes to rule making and idea making, Russia is China's only partner/ally.

Lol you talk about the delusions of being an Ahmadinejad(which I agree. Lol ), then you go on to talk about how you and Russia have historical shared ideologies and affinity to Russia than towards us? Lol
Mate we are not in Mao's era of the 1950s . Lol Which common ideology do you have with Russia today?
you abandoned Russia's commie ideology model and embraced the West while opening up to us and discarding Moscow(granted even Russia later discarded that outdated ideology.lol), which served your country well I must say. Now you are talking about shared ideology with Russia. .
You do remember that yoy allied with the 'evil west' to bring down your Soviet ideological ally as recently as 30 years ago right?, Did the west force China to abandon irs ideological Soviet Russia? Nope.

Its all about interests mate, so quit that ideological/hostorical affinity bullshit, thats for delusional islamist to believe/swallow.

If anything we have more close relations and affinity with Russia, since they are still European,similar race, and europe has had more people to people contacts /interactions with Russia than China can ever have.
As I said its all about interests dude

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

Lol awww....how sweet.
WHY HAS RUSSIA AND CHINA NOT FORMED AN ALLIANCE ALL THESE TIME EVEN UP TO NOW? .

Alliance mean dominant and subordinate relation such as US-Japan, US-Philippine both take order from Americans but not the other way around but China will never want to get lecture by Russian on how we should conduct our foreign policy nor who should we chose as friends. Alliance also mean that you have to defend ally's interest or at least not to do anything to undermine their interests, this will limit your options and freedom of conducting the foreign policy...basically China want to be the master of it own same go with Russia, so it's very logic that both will never go into alliance. Nerveless there is an appropriate formula that satisfy both nation's interest that close to match the word alliance, it's call strategically partnership.

Under the strategically partnership mean both China and Russia will only unit to defend the common interest such as US's THAAD deployment on SK, or if US try unilaterally slap sanction on innocent country, or step into central Asia to undermine China and Russia's interest. Beside that both China & Russia can do what they want. Russia can continue sell submarine to Vietnam to counter China in SCS, sell better weapons to India to counter China and same go with China, we can cozy with Ukraine to get engine technology or blue print for ex-soviet weapon or cozy central Asia countries for oil.

 

[C130]

Europe Bye Bye: China Overtakes Germany as Russia's Largest Oil Customer

The Russian-Chinese oil partnership is shaping to be the most important of such relationships in the world

It only makes sense. We've previously reported that Russia has displaced Saudi Arabia as China's top supplier of oil. But the International Energy Agency has now said that at the end of 2015 China likewise overtook Germany as Russia's top consumer.

"Shipping data suggest that China is importing more and more ESPO crude [East Siberian Pacific Ocean blend] and at the end of 2015 overtook Germany to become Russia’s biggest customer," the IEA said in its Oil Market Report for March released on Friday.

Russia is now the top supplier of oil to the top importer of oil. This is still not quite the biggest energy partnership in the world – the flow of oil from Canada to US is larger – but it's certainly the most geopolitically significant.

The Canadian-American relations would be much the same with or without the massive oil trade, but Russia and China becoming more commercialy important to each other will help to reinforce the many political ties (SCO, BRICS) Beijing and Moscow have been weaving so far.

In fact the growing commercial relationship (particularly in oil and arms) is to a very large extent the consequence of the greater political understanding between the two since 2014 and the Western turn against Russia. The oil relationship specifically is taking off in the wake of a deal whereby Russia is now accepting payment directly in Chinese Renminbi.

This gives Beijing an added ease of mind and is not problematic for Russia either since China is nowadays a massive factory and therefore the renminibi Russia earsn with oil sales can be easily spent on valued Chinese goods. In fact every year Russia imports more from Chine than it exports so there can be no fear of accumulating unwanted currency.

China is getting more Russian oil than Germany now so??? 60% of Russia oil exports head West to Europe. only about 14-15% goes to China. unless that flip flops in the next decade I don't think this is a big deal.

There is a lot of oil out there too much in fact. even Saudi Arabia is stepping on Russia toes and taking market share from Russia in Europe and with Irans oil coming back online that just means Russia is going to face more competition in Europe.

China is slowing down so that means it's need for more oil is slowing as well.


Saudi Arabia's Oil War With Russia - Bloomberg View

 

[TaiShang]

China will go to war with the West if Russia is attacked?? LMAO.
That was funny dude. You got good sarcasm I must confess.
First time I have heard this in my entire life. Good one mate. Lool

First of all, the West won't attack Russia. We know it right? So, yes, hypothetically speaking, China will get involved. That's despite off all the emoticons you mobilize.

Short of a war, the West is in open conflict with Russia and China is clearly on the side of Russia from economic warfare to Syria and Ukraine. I do not know what else do you expect? Probably, you won't be convinced so long as there is no NATO.

That you won't see anytime soon because China and Russia view the world differently. We do not look at the world from the same angle as you.

Mate we are not in Mao's era of the 1950s . Lol Which common ideology do you have with Russia today?

Pragmatism. Anti-hegemony. Non-intervention. Fierce sovereignty. Anti-Western imperialism. State-supervised liberal economy. State-held assets and key technologies.

You do remember that yoy allied with the 'evil west' to bring down your Soviet ideological ally as recently as 30 years ago right?, Did the west force China to abandon irs ideological Soviet Russia? Nope.

Your worldview is too coarse and superficial. So, I will not narrate for you the ideological intricacies of the time. But, in a single sentence, we did not ally the West to bring down the Soviets. There was a hiatus, for sure, but that was, again, ideological. It just happened that China embraced an open-up policy before the Soviets thought of it. China is still China today. Soviets are no more. We Communists learn from history and move on. Russia today shows they have learned from the Soviet experience. Hence the deep strategic partnership.

Its all about interests mate, so quit that ideological/hostorical affinity bullshit, thats for delusional islamist to believe/swallow.

It is definitely about interests and the Western and Chinese interests are antithetical. That's why we are building up strategic assets. These are to harm you should you dare to harm us our interests, you know it right? If you are looking for a pilgrimage in the mecca of pragmatism, look no further than China.

We do not buy your (your, in general terms) idiotic civilizational "The West" propaganda.

If anything we have more close relations and affinity with Russia, since they are still European,similar race, and europe has had more people to people contacts /interactions with Russia than China can ever have.

OK, I will not touch this consolation for you. I will just advice you that as long as you are under US Atlanticist yoke, you will be seen simply as a geostrategic extension of Washington and we won't take you seriously. You are only good to do business with; not to develop deep strategic partnership.

But I like it that your countries won't be alarmed at the ever expanding China-Russia strategic alignment.

Now I want to share this.

***

An Alliance Against US Hegemony: Russia, China Begin 'Coordinating' Foreign Policy

The economic partnership between Russia and China is rapidly developing into a political and military alliance against US ambitions in Asia

We reported yesterday that China has become the first foreign buyer of Russia's most advanced air defense system, the S-400, and noted how the deal is consistent with growing military and political ties between the two countries.

Moscow clearly sees Beijing as a long-term ally if it's willing to provide China with its best military hardware.

If the S-400 deal isn't persuasive enough though, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's comments during his recent visit to Moscow should remove all doubt regarding the China-Russia alliance:

“China-Russia cooperation is not confined to bilateral levels, instead, the two countries have been coordinating and playing active roles in a number of international issues,” Wang said on Friday.

The two countries, as permanent members of the UN Security Council and major emerging economies, have held similar positions on the Syrian crisis, as well as negotiations at the WTO and IMF.

“As each other’s most important and prioritized partners, China and Russia are developing the comprehensive strategic coordination as a strategic principle, rather than any expediency,” the Chinese Foreign Minister added.

This is an incredible statement, and is most likely causing mass panic at the Pentagon. China and Russia are working together on "strategic coordination" regarding "a number of international issues". This is how NATO talks, minus the acronym.

While Yi cites the conflict in Syria as an example of "similar positions" between Moscow and Beijing, we suspect that China realizes it will need help to keep the US out of its sphere of influence. Together, Russia and China are now protesting US plans to deploy new missile defense systems in South Korea. And as the US continues to antagonize China in the South China Sea, Beijing sees Russia as a political and military partner against further western ambitions in Asia.

Which brings us back to the S-400 deal: China wants military deterrence from US encroachment -- something that Russia specializes in.

Yes, China wears the "economic pants" in this relationship, but Russia more than compensates with its advanced military capabilities and incredible potential for economic growth -- which China is heavily invested in. And as BRICS continues to develop, as well as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union, we predict that China will gradually come to see Russia as an economic equal.

True, China and Russia don't have joint military bases spanning the globe, but NATO is hardly a model for an effective defensive alliance.

The China-Russia alliance against US hegemony: Finally, something to drink to.



@vostok , @Chinese-Dragon , @Abacin , @Beast , @Kiss_of_the_Dragon , @Arryn et al.

 

[xunzi]

A China dependency on Russia for energy does not 'help' US directly, but what it does is to introduce a vulnerability into China. Remember when all the people on this forum were cheering for the US to 'collapse' because of if so-and-so reduce oil output, blockade the Strait of Hormuz, etc...etc... ? While the bulk of that is sheer fantasy, there is a grain of truth that our oil import introduced a vulnerability. The bulk of US oil import is from Canada and Mexico, so that vulnerability is small. On the other side of the world, China and Russia are not exactly friendly acquaintances, let alone allies, and much farther from friends.

Actually Russia is the safest place to buy energy from. There is no threat of third party meddling in Russia energy policy.