The Great Game Changer: Belt and Road Intiative (BRI; OBOR)

[xyxmt]

Sometimes I can't help but ask this question: Is Barak Obama trying to destroy the United States intentionally through questionable policies ?

@SvenSvensonov , @LeveragedBuyout , @AMDR , @F-22Raptor , @Peter C , @C130 , @TruthSeeker , @Death.By.Chocolate , @MastanKhan , @qamar1990 et al. Can you please give your input?

Barak Obama alone doesnt make the policies

 

[AgentOrange]

How likely is it that China and Russia establish a collective security system? Not a full blown military alliance but similar to strengthened SCO where joint military ops become more than just show? What can China/Russia hope to achieve with such a system? Please discuss.

By the way I can't conceive of any scenario where China and Russia enter into a formal military alliance. Nevertheless, this is an extremely positive development. China's border with Russia is probably the area where China has to worry the least and for that I'm sure China is very appreciative.

@Chinese-Dragon @TaiShang @senheiser @vostok @Nihonjin1051 @LeveragedBuyout

@everyone else.


Russia, China seek to form Asia-Pacific collective security system — defense minister



Russia
November 18, 15:28 UTC+3
Russia and China are concerned over US attempts to strengthen its military and political clout in the Asia-Pacific Region

Putin: strengthening ties with China top priority for Russia

BEIJING, November 18. /TASS/. Defense ministries of Russia and China seek to form a regional collective security system in the Asia-Pacific region, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Tuesday after talks with his Chinese counterpart Colonel General Chang Wanquan in Beijing.
According to the Russian defense minister, Russia and China are concerned over US attempts to strengthen its military and political clout in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR).

“During talks with Comrade Chang Wanquan, we discussed the state and prospects of the Russian-Chinese relations in the military field, exchanged opinions on the military-political situation in general and the APR in particular,” Shoigu said.

“We also expressed concern over US attempts to strengthen its military and political clout in the APR,” he said. “We believe that the main goal of pooling our effort is to shape a collective regional security system.”

Russia, China to hold joint naval drills in Pacific, Mediterranean in 2015
Sergey Shoigu announced that Russia and China will hold joint naval drills in the Pacific and in the Mediterranean in 2015.

“We plan to conduct a regular joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean next spring. Another joint naval drill is planned in the Pacific,” he said.
Touching upon his talks with Chang Wanquan, Shoigu said the sides expressed satisfaction that the spectrum of joint activities in the defense sphere “has visibly expanded and gained a systemic character.” In May, Russia and China conducted third Joint Sea naval exercises, he noted.

In 2014, China’s teams took part in the tank biathlon world championship and international pilot competition Aviadrafts that were held in Russia. “Chinese servicemen demonstrated the high competitive spirit and skills,” the Russian defense minister said, adding that such events were “a good format for exchange of experience.”

“We have vast potential of cooperation in the defense sphere, and the Russian side is ready to develop it is a wide range of areas,” he added.

Strengthening ties with China is Russia's top priority
Shoigu said strengthening and expanding ties with China remains Russia’s overriding priority.

“Amid a highly volatile world situation, it becomes particularly important to strengthen reliable good-neighbourly relations between our countries,” Shoigu said at talks with his Chinese counterpart General Chang Wanquan.

“This is not only an important factor for security of states but also a contribution to peace and stability on the Eurasian continent and beyond,” he said, adding that “regular private meetings between the leaders of Russia and China give a powerful impetus to development of bilateral partnership”.

The minister noted that next year marks the 70th anniversary of the Allied victory in WWII. “The peoples of our countries took heavy casualties in it,” Shoigu said. “Russia’s and China’s solidarity is of principal importance amid attempts to falsify history and glorify fascism.”

A wide range of events is being planned to celebrate this date, both bilaterally and with counterparts from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security grouping comprising Russia, China and the Central Asian former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Shoigu said.

Russia and China also started to regularly hold joint naval and anti-terrorism drills, the minister said, adding that the countries’ military forces “showed a high level of cooperation” during an operation to escort vessels carrying Syria's chemical weapons. Much work was also done during this year’s joint Naval Interaction exercises in the East China Sea, he said.

Shoigu stressed that the two countries maintain high level of military and technical cooperation, noting that issues of that cooperation were “under constant review by our heads of state”.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

How likely is it that China and Russia establish a collective security system? Not a full blown military alliance but similar to strengthened SCO where joint military ops become more than just show? What can China/Russia hope to achieve with such a system? Please discuss.

By the way, I can't conceive of any scenario where China and Russia enter into a formal military alliance.

I agree with you that a formal security alliance is inconceivable, for two reasons:

1) What does China have to gain from such an alliance? China can never overtly support Russian separatist movements in Russian satellite states without inviting the same applied to its own peripheral territories (e.g. Xinjiang, Tibet). It's beyond belief that China would spend blood and treasure to defend Russian territory. At the same time, how could Russia possibly help China in any material way?

2) Russia and China compete for influence with the other members of the SCO; Russia through its USSR links, China through its Silk Road links. There is more likely to be friction between the two over Central Asia than there would be joint interests elsewhere (China has very strong trade links with Europe that it would not risk harming on Russia's behalf; Russia has no reason to downgrade relations with the likes of India or Vietnam for the sake of ephemeral gains from China).

Moreover, they increasingly compete on the defense industry front, and they don't share the same historical outlook on the West. Once the CCP decides to switch the artificial narrative of how the US is trying to contain China to the reality that the US helped China in WWII against Japan, and favored China over the USSR from the 1970s onward, the unity of purpose between Russia and China crumbles.

 

[Aepsilons]

How likely is it that China and Russia establish a collective security system? Not a full blown military alliance but similar to strengthened SCO where joint military ops become more than just show? What can China/Russia hope to achieve with such a system? Please discuss.

By the way I can't conceive of any scenario where China and Russia enter into a formal military alliance. Nevertheless, this is an extremely positive development. China's border with Russia is probably the area where China has to worry the least and for that I'm sure China is very appreciative.

@Chinese-Dragon @TaiShang @senheiser @vostok @Nihonjin1051 @LeveragedBuyout

@everyone else.


Russia, China seek to form Asia-Pacific collective security system — defense minister



Russia
November 18, 15:28 UTC+3
Russia and China are concerned over US attempts to strengthen its military and political clout in the Asia-Pacific Region

Putin: strengthening ties with China top priority for Russia

BEIJING, November 18. /TASS/. Defense ministries of Russia and China seek to form a regional collective security system in the Asia-Pacific region, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Tuesday after talks with his Chinese counterpart Colonel General Chang Wanquan in Beijing.
According to the Russian defense minister, Russia and China are concerned over US attempts to strengthen its military and political clout in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR).

“During talks with Comrade Chang Wanquan, we discussed the state and prospects of the Russian-Chinese relations in the military field, exchanged opinions on the military-political situation in general and the APR in particular,” Shoigu said.

“We also expressed concern over US attempts to strengthen its military and political clout in the APR,” he said. “We believe that the main goal of pooling our effort is to shape a collective regional security system.”

Russia, China to hold joint naval drills in Pacific, Mediterranean in 2015
Sergey Shoigu announced that Russia and China will hold joint naval drills in the Pacific and in the Mediterranean in 2015.

“We plan to conduct a regular joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean next spring. Another joint naval drill is planned in the Pacific,” he said.
Touching upon his talks with Chang Wanquan, Shoigu said the sides expressed satisfaction that the spectrum of joint activities in the defense sphere “has visibly expanded and gained a systemic character.” In May, Russia and China conducted third Joint Sea naval exercises, he noted.

In 2014, China’s teams took part in the tank biathlon world championship and international pilot competition Aviadrafts that were held in Russia. “Chinese servicemen demonstrated the high competitive spirit and skills,” the Russian defense minister said, adding that such events were “a good format for exchange of experience.”

“We have vast potential of cooperation in the defense sphere, and the Russian side is ready to develop it is a wide range of areas,” he added.

Strengthening ties with China is Russia's top priority
Shoigu said strengthening and expanding ties with China remains Russia’s overriding priority.

“Amid a highly volatile world situation, it becomes particularly important to strengthen reliable good-neighbourly relations between our countries,” Shoigu said at talks with his Chinese counterpart General Chang Wanquan.

“This is not only an important factor for security of states but also a contribution to peace and stability on the Eurasian continent and beyond,” he said, adding that “regular private meetings between the leaders of Russia and China give a powerful impetus to development of bilateral partnership”.

The minister noted that next year marks the 70th anniversary of the Allied victory in WWII. “The peoples of our countries took heavy casualties in it,” Shoigu said. “Russia’s and China’s solidarity is of principal importance amid attempts to falsify history and glorify fascism.”

A wide range of events is being planned to celebrate this date, both bilaterally and with counterparts from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security grouping comprising Russia, China and the Central Asian former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, Shoigu said.

Russia and China also started to regularly hold joint naval and anti-terrorism drills, the minister said, adding that the countries’ military forces “showed a high level of cooperation” during an operation to escort vessels carrying Syria's chemical weapons. Much work was also done during this year’s joint Naval Interaction exercises in the East China Sea, he said.

Shoigu stressed that the two countries maintain high level of military and technical cooperation, noting that issues of that cooperation were “under constant review by our heads of state”.

Since the Cold War’s end, many analysts have expected China and Russia to cooperate vigorously to counter the American geopolitical superiority. Although Chinese and Russian leaders have collaborated on some issues, substantial obstacles have impeded their forming of an “Anti-American” Bloc. This failure of the two strongest countries with both the capacity and arguably incetives to counterbalance the American Power and influence isn world affairs suggests why the United States continues to enjoy unprecedented global preeminence.

Foreign policy cooperation between Russia and China has been much more visible in their joint approach to Central Asia in other important areas – despite their leader’s calls for foreign policy “coordination”. Their genuine desire to counter what both consider excessive American power and influence in the post-Cold War era manifests itself mostly rhetorically. Since the early 1990s, the two governments have issued numerous joint communiques in which they have denounced U.S policies and called for a multilateral rather than a unilateral (American-led) world. They also jointly sponsored resolutions in the United Nations urging respect for the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which limited the U.S. ability to deploy defense against Russian (and, by extension, Chinese) ballistic missiles.

Despite their common rhetoric, the two governments have taken no substantive , joint steps to counter American power of influence. For example, they have not pooled their military resources or expertise to overcome U.S. ballistic missile defense programs. One Chinese official threatened such anti-BMD cooperation shortly after Yeltsin’s December 1999 visit to Beijing. The Director General for Arms Control of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Sha Zukang, repeated the warning again. But such threats ended after Putin, on his visit to Italy, proposed that Russia and NATO cooperate to defend Europe against missile strikes – despite prior acknowledgment that Chinese officials were “suspicious about Russian initiatives to create a non-strategic missile defense system in Europe.” When asked about the prospects of a Joint Chinese-Russian response after the December 2001 U.S. decision to withdraw formally from the ABM Treaty, President Putin told journalists, “Russia is strong enough to respond on its own to any changes in the sphere of strategic stability.”

An important indicator of the shallowness of Sino-Russian ties has been their failure, despite the Russian-China “Partnership” to adopt a mutual defense agreement such as the treaty of friendship, alliance, and mutual assistance that Moscow and Beijing signed in February 1950. Representatives of both governments have consistently dismissed the suggestions of such Russian analysts and politicians as Roman Popkovich, chairman of the Duma Committee on Geopolitics, that a genuine military alliance be established. Although both Governments agreed in July 2000 to begin drafting a Sino-Russian Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, and signed it in July 2001, they made clear that neither party had sought a military component in the accord.

I want to also emphasize the different approaches both Russia and China have regarding Asia:

The limits of foreign policy harmonization between China and Russia are most visible in East and South Asia, where the two governments have adopted sharply divergent positions on important issues. For instance, despite their mutual concern about the 1998 Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests, Russia and China have persisted in supporting their respective Cold War allies – India in the case of Russia and Pakistan in the case of China. PLA analysts and other Chinese security specialists continue to see India as a potential threat to China’s security. For these reasons, the Chinese have expressed irritation at Russia’s commitment to provide India with nuclear reactors for its civilian nuclear power program. The Chinese have also resented Russia’s willingness to sell India advanced weapons that Moscow has not offered China, including certain fighter planes and other military technology.

In another area: NORTH KOREA. Russia and China share important concerns on the Korean Peninsula, they have pointedly declined to coordinate their policies there. Neither country desires a war or the use of weapons of mass destruction in Korea. Russia began in 1996 to provide South Korea with defensive weapons to cover the commercial debt with Seoul that it had inherited from the USSR. In contrast, former president Jiang Zemin stated that China had no plans to abrogate its defense treaty with North Korea. As a result, China has become North Korea’s closest political and military ally. Most tellingly, Chinese representatives resisted giving Russia a formal role in the Four-Party Negotiatins on establishing peace in Korea. As leaders of a state bordering the Peninsula, Russian officials were understandably concerned about the implications for their security of either Korea’s nuclearization or reunification.

In light of these policies, it leaves one to appreciate the comprehensive areas wherein would prevent a full and complete military alliance between Russia and China, given the differences in policies and agendas in the Asia-Pacific Region.


References:

Interfax. (2014, July 10). Russia, China have no plans to create military alliance, such coalitions proved ineffective - Sergei Ivanov. Russia & FSU General News. p. 1.

Russian FM: Russia and China Speak Against Expansion of Military Alliances Policy. (2012). Arabia 2000,

Weitz, R 2003, 'Why Russia And China Have Not Formed An Anti-American Alliance', Naval War College Review, 56, 4, P. 39, Academic Search Complete, Ebscohost, Viewed 19 November 2014.

 

[Zsari]

Military alliance is neither needed nor desired by both. As long as both do not turn against each other when facing an external threat, the two has nothing to fear in terms of its own security. In a standoff against the US by either one, it would be in the interest of the other party to assist materially and financially, but not militarily, while in an engagement against a third party other than the US, the two does not need each other to gain an advantage.

 

[AgentOrange]

I agree with you that a formal security alliance is inconceivable, for two reasons:

1) What does China have to gain from such an alliance? China can never overtly support Russian separatist movements in Russian satellite states without inviting the same applied to its own peripheral territories (e.g. Xinjiang, Tibet). It's beyond belief that China would spend blood and treasure to defend Russian territory. At the same time, how could Russia possibly help China in any material way?

2) Russia and China compete for influence with the other members of the SCO; Russia through its USSR links, China through its Silk Road links. There is more likely to be friction between the two over Central Asia than there would be joint interests elsewhere (China has very strong trade links with Europe that it would not risk harming on Russia's behalf; Russia has no reason to downgrade relations with the likes of India or Vietnam for the sake of ephemeral gains from China).

Moreover, they increasingly compete on the defense industry front, and they don't share the same historical outlook on the West. Once the CCP decides to switch the artificial narrative of how the US is trying to contain China to the reality that the US helped China in WWII against Japan, and favored China over the USSR from the 1970s onward, the unity of purpose between Russia and China crumbles.

Outside of NATO, whose framework and mechanisms have been in place for decades, are there currently any other countries that have formal military alliances with one another? I can't think of any off the top of my head. It seems in the 21st century, no one makes military alliances anymore. At the same time, when was the last time any nation truly had to "fight for its existence" against a foreign opponent like in WW2? (aside from Saddam's Iraq ).

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

Outside of NATO, whose framework and mechanisms have been in place for decades, are there currently any other countries that have formal military alliances with one another? I can't think of any off the top of my head. It seems in the 21st century, no one makes military alliances anymore. At the same time, when was the last time any nation truly had to "fight for its existence" against a foreign opponent like in WW2? (aside from Saddam's Iraq ).

Sure, there are alliances, but they require close cultural connections, or a unique set of security alignment criteria to succeed. Examples:

ANZUS
US-Japan defense agreement
US-Korea defense agreement
US-Taiwan defense agreement
US-Philippines defense agreement
NORAD
Anglo-Portuguese alliance
Five Power Defense Arrangement
China-North Korea defense agreement

It's also possible that entities like the Visegrad Group could form the basis of a security alliance should the EU suffer its inevitable demise.

Therefore, it's easy to see how the member states of the former USSR could conceivably re-create some kind of defense alliance, but I doubt China would be involved. China may yet create a wider network of defense alliances beyond NK, but let's just say the current diplomatic environment is not conducive to such speculation.

 

[Aepsilons]

It's also possible that entities like the Visegrad Group could form the basis of a security alliance should the EU suffer its inevitable demise.

This is a very poignant statement. I do believe that contingency plans should be readied for regional blocs in the event of a major strategic exigency, such as the EU's disintegration. Perhaps the Visegrad Group should conduct interoperability programs with the Nordic Battle Group. Cohesion between both the Nordic Battle Group and Visegrad Group could be a potent force to resist any unilateral acts of hegemony.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

If the Russian/China border is no problem then is China going to spend less money on tanks since..well what land force are they planning to use all of them against?

How many army tanks are there in the Chinese army

 

[AgentOrange]

If the Russian/China border is no problem then is China going to spend less money on tanks since..well what land force are they planning to use all of them against?

How many army tanks are there in the Chinese army

Most of those are outdated Type-59s which are in dire need of replacement. And they aren't being replaced on a one to one basis. So over time we can expect China's tank fleet to shrink. Furthermore, out of all the branches, the PLA ground force is allocated the smallest portion of the budget. As I said, the Russian/China border is no problem. China's NK border is another story and modern tanks would be very useful.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Most of those are outdated Type-59s which are in dire need of replacement. And they aren't being replaced on a one to one basis. So over time we can expect China's tank fleet to shrink. Furthermore, out of all the branches, the PLA ground force is allocated the smallest portion of the budget. As I said, the Russian/China border is no problem. China's NK border is another story and modern tanks would be very useful.

Tanks in Korean People's Army Ground Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Well China can thank their "good friend Russia" and themselves for that.

 

[AgentOrange]

Tanks in Korean People's Army Ground Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Well China can thank their "good friend Russia" and themselves for that.

So Russia should stop arms sales to North Korea because of an unlikely "what if" scenario? Considering that China and North Korea are far from armed conflict, you aren't really disproving my point. At all. Try again.

 

[Aepsilons]

Tanks in Korean People's Army Ground Force - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Well China can thank their "good friend Russia" and themselves for that.

The North Koreans have that many tanks? 4000+ MBTs, 2200 APCs, 8000 artillery and 4800 multiple rocket launchers? Quite armed....

 

[Aepsilons]

So Russia should stop arms sales to North Korea because of an unlikely "what if" scenario? Considering that China and North Korea are far from armed conflict, you aren't really disproving my point. At all. Try again.

Do you happen to know how many tanks the PLA can muster in the Shenyang and Beijing Military Command to counter any North Korean Threat?

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

1) What does China have to gain from such an alliance? China can never overtly support Russian separatist movements in Russian satellite states without inviting the same applied to its own peripheral territories (e.g. Xinjiang, Tibet). It's beyond belief that China would spend blood and treasure to defend Russian territory. At the same time, how could Russia possibly help China in any material way?

China has always maintained its distance from separatist movements and even referendums. When Russia annexed Crimea, the Chinese abstained from criticizing Russia in the UN, even that at great internal debate. Even the Crimean Referendum, was a threat to China. The referendum can be viewed a a middle finger to the establishment, something it can't tolerate.

China even viewed the Scottish Referendum as specious. The Chinese Premier wanted a "Stong, prosperous UK."

Consider "China's Israel", Pakistan, while Pakistan wants international scrutiny on Indian Occupied Kashmir, China always considered it an "Internal Dilemma" between the two nations.

Consider the USA's support of Taiwan, China always rebutted that it was an "Internal Dispute".

2) Russia and China compete for influence with the other members of the SCO; Russia through its USSR links, China through its Silk Road links. There is more likely to be friction between the two over Central Asia than there would be joint interests elsewhere (China has very strong trade links with Europe that it would not risk harming on Russia's behalf; Russia has no reason to downgrade relations with the likes of India or Vietnam for the sake of ephemeral gains from China).

Russia always consider the CARs as it's backyard, more so than it's bilateral relations with Serbia. But while Russia's bilateral relations with each CAR is buying the natural gas and oil at dirt cheap prices and reselling them to Europe three times the price, and upgrading the obsolete Soviet War Machines. China needs those resources to fuel it's economic bull. And is willing to offer cold hard $, and soft loans.

Most of those are outdated Type-59s which are in dire need of replacement. And they aren't being replaced on a one to one basis. So over time we can expect China's tank fleet to shrink.

China's fear of a Soviet Invasion died out with its fall. Interesting enough it was that fear that compelled the CCP to look towards the evil US Imperialists as a counterweight.

After the case studies of US-Iraq, Iraq-Iran, US-Afghanistan, US-Iraq 2.0, Russia-Georgia, and the Arab-Israeli wars, China reoriented it's war doctrine from "Peoples War", to Fast paced and low intensity "Blitzkrieg, and Spec Ops". And in the view of Cyber Specialists redefined the use of Cyber Warfare and its potential use as a deterrent.

So Russia should stop arms sales to North Korea because of an unlikely "what if" scenario? Considering that China and North Korea are far from armed conflict, you aren't really disproving my point. At all. Try again.

To be honest, Russia and China dont get much in return for supporting the North Korean regime, except North Korea has a life long potential to be a thorn in the US's ***.