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The futility and immortality of Iran sanctions

Daneshmand

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The Futility and Immorality of Iran Sanctions


HONG KONG -- "We have been trading with Iran for 500 years and the only barrier has been a strip of water. Why would we stop now because someone across the ocean demands it?" a top local banker asked me rhetorically during my recent stopover in Dubai on my way to Iran. The two-way trade between the UAE and Iran is estimated to be around U.S. $15 billion and in reality is twice as much since this does not account for the enormous informal sector.

Contrary to what many have come to believe, U.S. sanctions on Iran are not as crippling as they are made out to be. Unlike many of its neighbors who are almost entirely dependent on oil, Iran is a diversified economy with a functioning manufacturing, agricultural and service sector, albeit inefficient due to sanctions and inadequate investments. The World Bank classifies it as an "upper middle income" country and despite sanctions Iran, with a GDP of $415.3 billion, is still the second largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa region. Average life expectancy (74 years) is almost as good as any in the developed world, and when it comes toprimary school enrollment, Iran is leagues ahead of its neighbors.

But, if anything, the Iranian people are resourceful and creative. They get around the problem through ingenuity and enterprise. A thriving currency market in the bazaars of Isfahan allowed me to exchange as much cash as I wanted for my travel and shopping, and sellers were happy to accept the Hong Kong dollar, renminbi and the yen. Carpet merchants, hoteliers and even taxi drivers are ever ready to swap foreign currencies for the riyal. Bank Melli Iran even issues pre-paid "cash cards" that allow tourists to swipe transactions just as they would in Hong Kong or Singapore.


This is not to say that sanctions do not hurt. Inflation has hit the pockets of ordinary Iranians, and the collapse of the Iranian riyal, which has fallen by 57 percent of its value since early 2012, has made imports more expensive. By eliminating market competition and leaving what little room there is for international trade to a very restricted list of individuals and organizations, sanctions have created huge inequalities in Iranian society. As one wealthy Iranian told me, "the sanctions make those of us who are rich even richer and those who are poor even poorer."

So if sanctions are ineffective, then why are they still in place? This comes down to what former French President Valery Giscard D'Estaing called the "exorbitant privilege" granted to the U.S. via the Bretton Woods agreement. He used this to describe U.S.' unique ability to dominate the global financial system by virtue of the greenback being the global reserve currency. That extraordinary primacy of the greenback has allowed Washington to extend the notion of exorbitant privilege to exercising arbitrary force on those who dare not to play by its rules.

But the beneficiaries of the sanctions are many. These include the Gulf states, who are very aware of the windfall the sanctions on Iran gives them, and it is easy to see why they are beseeching Washington not to relax them. The motivations are probably more economic than sectarian. As the Dubai banker explained: "Iranians have a lot of money locked in Gulf banks, businesses and real estate. Guess what happens to all those shiny glass and marble shrines once Tehran rejoins the international financial system?"

What he implied was that much of that economic power could readily move to more fertile ground with a much larger consumer base. If the sanctions were lifted, the "music," at least for the Gulf states, could possibly slow down. But that might not be a bad thing as spreading the wealth in the region will create healthier competition and importantly help bring much needed political stability as commerce and trade expands. It will also unleash the untapped human capital of the largest and most educated pool of young people in the region -- and that would include women who outnumber men in universities in Iran.

So just how unfair is it for the world to let one nation have the exorbitant privilege to punish others just because it has an old axe to grind? No other country has been granted this, and it is about time the world took ownership of this "license" so that it is not abused.

You can drive the length and breadth of the U.S., but you will not find a single place with anything like the culture you will find at Imam Square. Why do they think we will bow to them?

Why? Successive U.S. administrations have shown the world repeatedly how badly it takes setbacks and seeks to punish others without global support. More than three decades have passed since the U.S. embassy hostage crisis, but that incident continues to color how American foreign policy frames Iran. For most Americans, Iran is a hostile place where their diplomats were once held hostage, not a warm and friendly country of about 80 million people and a GDP of U.S. $415.3 billion with whom they should have strong ties. Most Americans are either ignorant of or refuse to acknowledge that American and British conniving to protect oil interests thwarted Iran's first attempts at democratization in 1953.

On the humanitarian front, the tightening of the sanctions has resulted in serious shortage of lifesaving drugs, vaccines and other key medical supplies in the country. A much tougher sanctions regime on neighboring Iraq after the first Gulf war killedabout half a million children under the age of five according to UNICEF. If such reports are anything to go by, then it is clear that sanctions did the same in more heavily populated Iran. But politicians in the West have become so trapped in this game of charades that even a threat to the lives of hundred of thousands of babies barely stirs their conscience. It would appear no price is high enough to pay to punish Islamic theologians whose worldview is not shared by the West.

But Iran is more than the simplistic image many in the West -- in their fear of Islam -- have of the country. To stand in the middle of Imam Square in Isfahan is to stand in awe of a culture that predates the arrival of the first pilgrims on the shores of North America. The Iranians know their place in history. Extremely learned, it is a culture that has developed a highly refined sense of literature, art and architecture. I met a 65-year-old master craftsman, who earns $200 a month investing three years of hard labor trying to fix an elaborately designed silk carpet made by a master weaver whose center was off by a mere two inches. What kind of a culture produces this kind of devotion to perfection? As my Iranian friend who has family in the U.S. told me, "you can drive the length and breadth of the U.S., but you will not find a single place with anything like the culture you will find just here at Imam Square. Why do they think we will bow to them?"

U.S. and European negotiators will do well to remember these words of a young businessman and not those of a religious fanatic. They should stroll through the bazaars of Isfahan and Shiraz if they have any second thoughts about inking the agreement with the Iranians. Neither the moderates, nor the hardliners will part with Iran's right to nuclear energy. If they are expected to play their role as responsible actors in global affairs, then they should be respected and trusted as equal partners. It is time for futile and immoral sanctions to go. The poor and weak have already paid an exorbitant price.
 
Let's be honest here. No country will accept its enemy country acquiring nukes. If say Iraq was hostile to Iran and was trying to acquire nukes, Iran would do everything in its power to stop it. There is no morality here. Only a simple cost/benefit map.
 
Let's be honest here. No country will accept its enemy country acquiring nukes. If say Iraq was hostile to Iran and was trying to acquire nukes, Iran would do everything in its power to stop it. There is no morality here. Only a simple cost/benefit map.

And that's why the world's been in chaos for heck of long long time ... in absent of morality we would witness more forthcoming tragedies and miseries, enough is enough ....

The point isn't that Iran is after nuke or not, actually there is no evidence to support such claims and allegations let alone to prove it. All these puffings and huffings are merely about changing Iran behavior to give in and accept American hegemony ... the rest of it is just a bitter joke ..


20 Reasons Iran is not after Nuclear Bomb

1. Since 2003, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has implemented the most robust inspections in its history with more than 100 unannounced and over 4000 man-day inspections in Iran. The agency has frequently declared there is no evidence of even a gram of nuclear material diverted towards building nuclear bomb.

2. The US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) in 2007 and 2011 concluded that:
• Iran does not have an active nuclear weapons program;
• There is no conclusive evidence that Iran has made any effort to build the bomb since 2003 , and
• Iranian leaders had made no political decision yet to build an actual weapon.

3. Based on the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s fatwa or religious decree, the use of nuclear weapons and all other types of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is haram or prohibited, a sin, useless, costly, harmful and dangerous, posing a serious threat to humanity.

4. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Saddam Hussein authorized the use of chemical weapons against the Iranians, which killed and injured over 100,000 Iranian soldiers and civilians. Yet, even in a state of war the Iranians did not retaliate in kind because Imam Khomeini was against the use of weapons of mass destruction.

5. Based on Iranian assessment, the possession of nuclear weapons would provide only a short-term regional advantage that would turn into a longer-term vulnerability, because sooner or later Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia would follow suit and a regional nuclear arms race would be inescapable.

6. The technical choices Iran has made in the configuration of its nuclear program demonstrate a preference for a robust enrichment capability rather than for a rapid nuclear weapons breakout capability. Iran’s development program is focused on next-generation centrifuge technology (IR-2m), rather than mass production or maximum installation of already mastered models of IR-1s and IR-2s that if Iran was determined to acquire weapons in the near term, would be the most efficient and rapid approach.

7. The activities detailed in the November 2011 IAEA report are not directed at any specific nuclear weaponization. According to Robert Kelly, an American top nuclear expert and the former IAEA inspector the report was misleading and aimed to bolster hardliners and I quote, “by taking information and feeding it as raw meat to people who want to move forward with war.”

8. Iran recognizes that by becoming a nuclear weapons state, it will compel Russia and China to join the United States and implement devastating sanctions that would paralyze the Iranian economy.

9. Iran’s ultimate strategy is to be a modern nation with advanced technology. The majority of Iran’s prominent politicians believe that a nuclear bomb would be detrimental for Iran’s long term technological cooperation with developed countries. They do not want to see Iran come under the extreme international isolation levied against North Korea.

10. A nuclear-weapon-free zone for the Middle East was first proposed by Iran in 1974 and the main obstacle to the initiative has been Israel—the only country in the region that possessing hundreds of nuclear weapons and not a member of the NPT.

11. Iran does not possess any type of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and has signed all major treaties repudiating the possession of weapons of mass destruction. These include the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) .

12. In summer 2011, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former Director General of the IAEA for 12 years and the Nobel Peace Prize recipient stated: “I have not seen a shred of evidence that Iran has been weaponizing, in terms of building nuclear-weapons facilities and using enriched materials . . . I don’t believe Iran is a clear and present danger. All I see is the hype about the threat posed by Iran.”
Mohammed ElBaradei refused to bow before warmongers and was later awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Yet his successor, Yukiya Amano according to WikiLeaks disclosure of US Embassy cable in Vienna, described himself as ‘solidly in the U.S. court on every key strategic decision, from high-level personnel appointments to the handling of Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program’.

13. Iran recognizes that becoming a nuclear weapons state would give the Israelis ample ammunition to rally the US and the international community on a perceived existential threat to its existence for creating another war in the Middle East.

14. During nuclear negotiations from 2003-05 between Iran and France, Germany, and the UK (the EU-3), Iran submitted different proposals, which included a declaration to:
• Cap enrichment at 5 percent level;
• Export enriched uranium beyond the domestic consumption or fabricate it into fuel rods;
• Commit to additional protocol and subsidiary agreement code 3.1, which would provide the maximum level of transparency;
• Allow the IAEA to make snap inspections of nuclear facilities; and
• To ship its low enriched uranium (LEU) to another country for fabrication into fuel rods for Tehran Research Reactor (TRR).
The EU declined due to US position on “zero enrichment” in Iran.

15. The IAEA deputy director-general, Mr. Herman Nackaerts visited Iran in August 2011. He was provided with a carte blanche to visit all nuclear installations. During his visit, he requested access and permitted to the research and development facilities on advanced centrifuges and other related R&D facilities. No other country has provided the inspectors of the IAEA such level of access to its facilities—not even the European Atomic Energy Community (EURATOM). During his visit, he also visited the simulation activities and R&D facilities of the heavy water reactor in Arak.
Following the visits, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Foredoom Abbasi, offered to extend the IAEA carte blanche on Iran’s nuclear program and activities with full supervision for five years, provided that sanctions against Iran are lifted—however the West declined.

16. In the summer of 2011, during President Ahmadinejad, Iran welcomed the Russian step-by-step proposal, which was even beyond our initiatives in 2003-5.15 The Russian Plan required Iran to:
• Allow full supervision by the IAEA;
• Implement the IAEA additional protocol and subsidiary arrangement Code 3.1;
• Halt production of highly enriched uranium and limit enrichment to 5 percent;
• Cease installation of new centrifuges;
• Limit the number of enrichment sites to one;

• Address IAEA concerns about the “possible military dimension” of the nuclear program and other technical ambiguities. This requires Iran to give access to IAEA even beyond Additional Protocol; and
• Suspend enrichment temporarily.
That’s why the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman recently said: “Iran, in order to prove its goodwill, has even gone beyond the commitments enumerated in the agency’s regulations”. However the US and EU rejected the offer.

17. Accusation levied against Iran for stockpiling enriched uranium to build nuclear weapon are misleading, since Iran requires 27 tons of uranium enriched at 3.5 percent annually to provide fuel for its only nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Up to now, Iran has produced about 7 tons and needs an additional 20 tons.

18. The West’s biggest concern and therefore highest priority in nuclear talks have centered on Iran’s 20% enriched uranium. First in February 2010 and for the second time in Sept 2011, Iran proposed to stop its 20% enrichment in return for fuel rods—once again the West declined. Iran repeated his readiness again. "If they give us the 20 percent [enriched] fuel, we will immediately halt 20 percent [enrichment]," Ahmadinejad said in an interview with Iranian state-run television. But Europe responded to his goodwill by placing more sanctions.

19. The accusation that Iran’s stockpile of 20% enriched uranium is aimed at building nuclear weapons is also baseless. First, the IAEA considers this level of enrichment as LEU, and second reason is that Iran was left with no other avenue than to pursue self-sufficiency in the production of fuel rods for TRR following the West’s rejection of multiple Iranian offers.

20. Last but not least, Israel is the main force behind allegations levied against Iran for pursuing nuclear weapons and been on the verge of acquiring one. But it is a baseless claim which has been frequently repeated since early1990’s.
• In October 1992 the then Foreign Minister Shimon Peres said that Iran would be armed with a nuclear bomb by 1999.etanyahu wrote in his book in 1995 that Iran would possess nuclear weapons within 3 to 5 years.
• In July 2001 Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer confirmed that by the year 2005 Iran would have a nuclear bomb.
• In February 2009 Netanyahu told US congressional delegation that Iran is only one or two years away from nuclear weapons.

• In his speech at UN in September 2012, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Iran would achieve nuclear bomb by "next spring, at most by next summer.24
Based on Israeli claims Iran was supposed to have nuclear weapons in 1999, yet thirteen years later, Iran neither has a bomb nor diverted its nuclear program towards military purposes.
The reasons above should convince the West that Iran is not after a nuclear bomb and it is time to enter into a genuine, face-saving solution. Here are the main elements of a face saving solution:
1- The P5+1 would recognize the legitimate rights of Iran for enrichment under the NPT,
2- The P5+1 would gradually lift the sanctions.
In return Iran would take the following measures:
1- Operationalizing the Leader’s Fatwa or religious decree on ban of nuclear weapon.
2- Implementing Additional Protocol.
3- Implement Subsidiary Arrangements Code 3.1.
4- Cooperate with IAEA to address remaining technical ambiguities.
5- Cooperate with the IAEA to resolve Possible Military Dimension issues.
6- To realize the “Zero Stockpile Initiative”, Iran either would export the enriched stockpile beyond its domestic consumptions or convert into fuel rods.
7- Capping the Enrichment at 5%.
8- To establish a regional or multinational consortium for enrichment in Iran.
This is a package which can guarantee the legitimate rights of Iran under NPT for enrichment while ensuring the world that Iran would remain a non-nuclear weapon state forever.​
 
1. Since 2003, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has implemented the most robust inspections in its history with more than 100 unannounced and over 4000 man-day inspections in Iran. The agency has frequently declared there is no evidence of even a gram of nuclear material diverted towards building nuclear bomb.​
Not having evidence doesn't mean that they are not going for Nuclear power...
 
The Futility and Immorality of Iran Sanctions


HONG KONG -- "We have been trading with Iran for 500 years and the only barrier has been a strip of water. Why would we stop now because someone across the ocean demands it?" a top local banker asked me rhetorically during my recent stopover in Dubai on my way to Iran. The two-way trade between the UAE and Iran is estimated to be around U.S. $15 billion and in reality is twice as much since this does not account for the enormous informal sector.

This is what I call solid logic! Wish their country leaders would think and act the same way.
 
Why do they think we will bow to them?

One word: sanctions.

For all of Iran's art and culture and history, economics rules over them all, as it does over all other countries on Earth.
 
Sanctions have helped Iran grow indigenously and thats a big plus, though exports seems to have been afffected but they can be made up in full force once sanctions are lifted
 
We could go after nuke when India and Pakistan obtain it but our officials were some narrow minded persons who were fooling themselves with Ummah things .... now , the result is current disaster ...
 
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One word: sanctions.

For all of Iran's art and culture and history, economics rules over them all, as it does over all other countries on Earth.

No, not at all. If Iran was to bow and cheer at every other adversary, then it would not have survived for thousands of years. But then, you will only be able to understand this when you are a few thousand years old yourself.

Iran will remain a threshold nuclear state, just a couple of screw drivers away from the ultimate thing. The important thing here is the recognition of the fact by the world powers. In effect they are bowing to Iran not other way around (the representatives of American people in congress and senate are correctly worried, despite their ridicule on CNN and by administration).

And this bowing of Americans to Iran, happened due to two strategic reasons:

1) The daily Israeli push on America to go to war with Iran after the debacles of Afghanistan, Iraq, recession and Libya. US counter-pushed by reaching a deal with Iran in order to get Israel off its back and nicely packed in a pickle jar for later use as American interests necessitate. This adjustment with Israel was long overdue, since Israeli foreign policy had become too muddling and expensive for United States since late 90's. Israel will ofcourse remain a friend of America but not "invited" to every party anymore. Analogy in history: Taiwan's situation after US made a deal with China in 1972.

2) The seemingly unstoppable rise of Wahabi madness whose ideological, financial, logistical and demographical roots are in countries currently "allied" to US and protected by US power and aid in one form or another. US still wants to keep these plethora of artificial countries whose ages combined, multiplied by 7 is smaller than Iran's age, as its "allies", read puppet airbases and stooge outposts of American hegemony. So how to teach these "allies" a lesson and keep them in check for their own good, protecting them from their own endemic and chronic madness? Easy. By strategic balancing. For 36 years now, US has been trying to contain (through economic, cultural, political, intelligence, proxy war, direct war, diplomatic etc etc sabotage) the independent and sovereign country of Iran. All US has to do is to stop containing Iran. Everything will fall into place with time. Analogy in history: When madness of Nazis rose up, US stopped containing USSR.

This is what I call solid logic! Wish their country leaders would think and act the same way.

Well, their media is very powerful. Their media is trend-setting and public opinion making machine in its truest sense. Despite all this propaganda against Iran for the past 36 years, if they ever decide to change course, their media can do it in matter of weeks, changing the public opinion within a snap. It is easy for them. In 1970's China was the biggest enemy of US, and portrayed as such in US media. By 1990's, China had become the darling of US and the trade was breaking galactic records. No American asked what happened? The reason is when Americans become convinced something is in their interest, everything else stops to matter. Their media projects this into their brains. And every one buys it.
 
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