The Fading Jihadists

[t-birds]

E-mail David Ignatius

Thursday, February 28, 2008; Page A17

Politicians who talk about the terrorism threat -- and it's already clear that this will be a polarizing issue in the 2008 campaign -- should be required to read a new book by a former CIA officer named Marc Sageman. It stands what you think you know about terrorism on its head and helps you see the topic in a different light.

Sageman has a r¿sum¿ that would suit a postmodern John le Carr¿. He was a case officer running spies in Pakistan and then became a forensic psychiatrist. What distinguishes his new book, "Leaderless Jihad," is that it peels away the emotional, reflexive responses to terrorism that have grown up since Sept. 11, 2001, and looks instead at scientific data Sageman has collected on more than 500 Islamic terrorists -- to understand who they are, why they attack and how to stop them.

The heart of Sageman's message is that we have been scaring ourselves into exaggerating the terrorism threat -- and then by our unwise actions in Iraq making the problem worse. He attacks head-on the central thesis of the Bush administration, echoed increasingly by Republican presidential candidate John McCain, that, as McCain's Web site puts it, the United States is facing "a dangerous, relentless enemy in the War against Islamic Extremists" spawned by al-Qaeda.

The numbers say otherwise, Sageman insists. The first wave of al-Qaeda leaders, who joined Osama bin Laden in the 1980s, is down to a few dozen people on the run in the tribal areas of northwest Pakistan. The second wave of terrorists, who trained in al-Qaeda's camps in Afghanistan during the 1990s, has also been devastated, with about 100 hiding out on the Pakistani frontier. These people are genuinely dangerous, says Sageman, and they must be captured or killed. But they do not pose an existential threat to America, much less a "clash of civilizations."

It's the third wave of terrorism that is growing, but what is it? By Sageman's account, it's a leaderless hodgepodge of thousands of what he calls "terrorist wannabes." Unlike the first two waves, whose members were well educated and intensely religious, the new jihadists are a weird species of the Internet culture. Outraged by video images of Americans killing Muslims in Iraq, they gather in password-protected chat rooms and dare each other to take action. Like young people across time and religious boundaries, they are bored and looking for thrills.

"It's more about hero worship than about religion," Sageman said in a presentation of his research last week at the New America Foundation, a liberal think tank here. Many of this third wave don't speak Arabic or read the Koran. Very few (13 percent of Sageman's sample) have attended radical madrassas. Nearly all join the movement because they know or are related to someone who's already in it. Those detained on terrorism charges are getting younger: In Sageman's 2003 sample, the average age was 26; among those arrested after 2006, it was down to about 20. They are disaffected, homicidal kids -- closer to urban gang members than to motivated Muslim fanatics.

Sageman's harshest judgment is that the United States is making the terrorism problem worse by its actions in Iraq. "Since 2003, the war in Iraq has without question fueled the process of radicalization worldwide, including the U.S. The data are crystal clear," he writes. We have taken a fire that would otherwise burn itself out and poured gasoline on it.

The third wave of terrorism is inherently self-limiting, Sageman continues. As soon as the amorphous groups gather and train, they make themselves vulnerable to arrest. "As the threat from al-Qaeda is self-limiting, so is its appeal, and global Islamist terrorism will probably disappear for internal reasons -- if the United States has the sense to allow it to continue on its course and fade away."

Sageman's policy advice is to "take the glory and thrill out of terrorism." Jettison the rhetoric about Muslim extremism -- these leaderless jihadists are barely Muslims. Stop holding news conferences to announce the latest triumphs in the "global war on terror," which only glamorize the struggle. And reduce the U.S. military footprint in Iraq, which fuels the Muslim world's sense of moral outrage.

I don't agree with all of Sageman's arguments, especially about the consequences of a quick drawdown in Iraq, but I think he is raising the questions the country needs to ponder this election year. If Sageman's data are right, we are not facing what President Bush called "the decisive ideological struggle of the 21st century and the calling of our generation," but something that is more limited and manageable -- if we make good decisions.

 

[MastanKhan]

updated article. thanks.

 

[mujahideen]

Beautiful article you wrote Mastan Khan. Had some minor mistakes(Benazir was not the leader of the PPPP, she was the leader of the PPP, the leader of the PPPP is Amin Fahim, this is the group of the PPP which sits in Parliament) but indeed it was something which is on the minds of all Pakistanis. I will be looking forward to re-reading your article in Dawn.

 

[dotaplayer]

if pakistanis start taking pride in their country and they rank the religion lower to nationalism then Such religious extremism wont last long..

Election in NWFP have proved that noone supports religious party....

its time to implement this in all the spheres of life........



its a good article..it has a plan and focusses on working rather than criticizing the grim situation...


pakistan should nt let this war on taliban/extremism, look like war against Islam.......







Goodone master khan sahab

 

[Neo]

Excellent article Sir, I hope they publish it.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

I updated the previous article. So here is the updated version. Thankyou for your patronage and I am sorry to repeat it.



The last few months have seen a renewed aggression by the jihadis against the government and the people of pakistan. The suicide bombings have taken a different form and shape. Suddenly the innocent pakistani civilian bystander on the roadside, have become the target of this death squad. They have availed the oppurtunity and assasinated the PPPP chairperson Madam Benazir Bhutto alongwith hundreds of her followers and security personale. Today, an average pakistani is extremely concerned and scared about this black death that lingers behind any nook and corner, in any gathering or streetside, where the innocent people can become the unwanted victims of a devastating explosion that rips a body to pieces and tears the appendages apart. Alongwith the suicide bombings are public beheadings of those who have been caught at helping the government. The war on terror has taken a new turn. Pakistan has just started to look at this new dimension of terror, death and mayhem to which they were not familiar with in the past. I can tell you that what they are looking at, there is nothing comforting in it that would give them any hope for a better and evenful future.
My analysis is that the pakistani and the U S govt have to change their approach towards fighting the war on terror in pakistan. I believe that pakistan and U S are misdirected on fighting this war. This war has no frontiers, we all know that by now. In pakistan, this war starts from the home or the madrassah of the insurgent where the insurgent can go right back and hide, after, he has done what he wants to do. So, the big question is how to stop this insurgent from doing what he is doing and what are the measures that can be taken so that the public can also participate in helping point out these people to the law enforcement agencies.
The first step as always would be to educate the people. We will have to educate them to seperate themselves from the those with radical thinking and point out those whom they feel are participating in illegal activities and set up a rewards system and provide them with security. We will have to tell the pakistanis that this is a war on pakistan that is being fought on pakistani soil and where the victims are also innocent pakistanis who have done nothing to deserve what they are being forced to endure. While we are educating the people, we also need to provide them with protection, we need to protect their lives and the lives of their family members as well. We will have to take a pro active approach in fighting this menace. We will have to cover all our bases to the best of our abilities. We will have to make the decision who our friends and foes are---is al qaeda the the enemy or are we going to join forces with al qaeda? Are we going to talibanize pakistan or will pakistan stay its course with its present intellectual and religious ideology. What do we see in the future of pakistan? Is it going to be a state run by religious zealots and fundamentalists or the pakistanis will determine their destiny according to the dreams of Muhammad Ali Jinnah. The bottomline question would be, where does pakistan and pakistani want to see itself when it all ends? Is it still going to be the moderate pakistan or would it be a nation hijacked by the likes of foreign radicals and fanatics? If it is a nation in control of the fundamentalists, would there be any chance of its survival as a state aka pakistan or would it be a dream remembered in the past tense?
We will have to seperate the war on pakistan from war on "islam". Pakistanis need to learn to differentiate between these two. Pakistanis must be made to realize that they are also the victims of this war on terror. Pakistanis must need to learn to think of themselves as a nation---pakistanis must need to think themselves as pakistanis first----pakistanis are not the sole representratives of the world of islam---the world of islam is seperated into different nations, different ethnic groups, different geographical areas, different languages and cultures, pakistanis must learn to understand the brotherhood of being a pakistani first, pakistanis must learn to understand their identity and what kind of responsibility does that identity brings alongwith it. We all are the citizens of our given nations. We hold the identification and the passports of our given nations. If we have to travel, we seek a visa to enter another muslim nation. Niether do we enjoy free travel to any other muslim country at our discretion, nor are we eligible to work in any other muslim country or to settle down in any other muslim nation without the prior permissin from that nation.
Now, coming down to the participation of the print media and tv, I see supporters of these fanatics on the pakistani tv talk shows all the time justifying the the actions of al qaeda and taliban, but I don't see people negating those ideas with the same ferocity as those of the proponents. Secondly, I see the tv hosts giving twice as much time to those who are religious people or those who are supporting the suicide attacks on a regular basis. At the end of the show, I don't see a total condemnation of the acts of suicide bombers, on the other hand I see the tv host in supporting some of the religious participants ideas which go against the grain of the welfare of the people of pakistan. This war on terror is being lost on the pakistani tv channels, because there are not enough educated people who can come out and challenge the radicals in that open discussion. Even if they do, they do not have enough information to fight fire with fire.
Pakistanis must realize that they are not the safekeepers of islam and of all the islamic nations. Paksiatnis must realize that their version of islam is not the final version, pakistanis must realize that their's is not the only version. Pakistanis must also learn that the russian afghan war ended a long time ago. They must also learn that the alliances that were carved out years ago are a thing of the past. They disappeared long before the date 9/11. The world has become a different place since then. Even though it is assumed that Bin Laden was trained by CIA, it is not enough to justify all his actions. He crossed all lines of justification when he attacked the twin towers. It was his individual and personal agenda only, a cause for personal glory and it had everything to do with the death and destruction of afghanistan and the afghanis. Pakistani---have you ever thought for a moment who the biggest loser in this war is----have you ever thought about the human casualty of this war---have you ever thought about the innocent afghani women and children and men dying needlessly in this war. Have you ever thought that this man Osama, was kicked out of his own country saudi arabia. He was in somalia and brought destruction to the somalians, he went to sudan and brought death and destruction to sudan. At least the sudanese had the intelligence to kick him out of their country in time. They knew well in advance how much destruction this man could bring to their nation.
We need to use all forms of the news media to educate the public---we can use the radio, the tv, the news papers and place infomercials in how to trace and track the movements of suspicious people and equipment. Motels and inns and guests houses can keep an eye and ear open for guests who are young, may look suspicious, are nervous people extremely jumpy in behaviour, somebody standing on a street corner for a long time with a shawl wrapped around his body, somebody who seems to be out of place on a train station or a bus station, taxi drivers, rickshaw drivers they all will have to take a part in stopping this menace. Somebody physically looking to be out of the area lingering around in a supicious manner for no reason at all. Pakistanis have to be told to change their outlook and approach to strangers coming into their community.
People would also need to be on watch about vehicles coming in and out of certain areas---a car is used in a suicide attack---if you have the make model and color, the police can immediately make that information available to the public on the tv right away and ask them if anyone remembers seeing that particular vehicle coming out of a certain house or a repair shop. The state need to seek the help of the news media---they need to go on the air waves and educate people en-masse. There need to be call centers to take calls about suspicious activity and suspicious people.
Unless the pakistani public is not involved in helping the law enforcement agencies in fighting this menace, this war on terror is going to be lost and the biggest victim is going to be the innocent pakistanis who are just going around everyday busy in their daily lives trying to make a living for their families. The victims of suicide bombings are picked at random---they were just at the wrong place at the wrong time and due to no fault of their own. Pakistanis must learn and realize that one day the victim could be their dear beloved. Help yourself by helping the police in targetting these people. Help save the lives of your children, your family members your dear beloveds, help save the lives of strangers that you will never meet in your lives, help in saving the integrity of your home and nation that you call pakistan. Show some love for your country and your fellow men, women and children. Take a stand for pakistan.
In pakistan, all these suicide bombers are being trained in a certain area. It will be extremely difficult to track the movement of people---but once you get civilians involved in helping the law enforcement agencies in tracking suspicious activity, things will change. It is not an easy task but it needs help from the public to make things easier for the police. In pakistan, people have spoken loudly and clearly in the last election---religious fanaticism is not in favour---there is no love for the religious parties---there is no love for the suicide bombers---the killings of Benazir Bhutto has hit too close to home.
The pakistani police / law enforcement agencies must also be brought upto date in confronting this problem. They need to be trained to look at this problem as a deadly problem with devastating results. Their rank and file need to be trained on modern lines, higher pay, better life and disability insurance policies, better welfare for their families. There need to be specialized anti terror squads, who are better equipped and better trained. The rank and file, their team leaders and other officers must firmly believe in the job that they have been assigned to perform and they must be able to convey these sentiments to the junior members of the team. Untill and unless all the members of the team are not on the same page, there will be no smooth operation. The team members must go through routine briefings and mental training to keep their focus in the rigth direction. This can be done throug pep talk given through company level or regimental level by speakers well versed on the topic.
The government can do all it takes to make things happen, but it won't succeed until and unless the pakistani public doesnot participate in defeating this menace. Untill and unless the pakistani public doesnot stand up and own this nation and this country as their own and tell on the suicide bombers and their cohorts, the radicals are going to keep doing what they have have been.
It is the job of the pakistani government to make sure that once it launches an operation against any insurgents, then this operation must meet all the goals targetted and not stop half way in between, because some tribal leaders want to call a jirga. We are tired of these fake jirgas---they do nothing but give time to the insurgents to disappear in the hills and regroup to launch another attack at a later date.
Pakistanis, by nature are not very security conscious people. They also have a tendency of not getting involved in reporting a crime, being a witness to a crime, or indulging themseleves in stopping a crime. The reason for this problem has been the high handedness of the police department in the past as well as present. Anyone reporting a crime could be considered as a criminal at first, which may result in arrest and beating / torture by the police of the innocent person who was just reporting a crime.
One of these days, pakistanis will have to learn that there can be no negotiations done with the al qaeda and their supporters. As far as al qaeda is concerned, every other person is condemned who doesnot follow their directives. It is only and only their way of the belief.
This lack of understanding on the part of the pakistani, has created a mentality, that this misery will either go away in talking to them and putting some sense into their minds. Pakistanis donot understand that there is nothing that they can do to change the mindset of the al qaeda. There is only and only one way to get rid of this menace. You need to take out all their leadership and stop the flow of their funds.
In order for the leadership to be taken out, the pakistanis will have to first sell themselves on the idea that al qaeda is not good for the health and welfare of pakistan. The pakistani millitary and other law enforcement agencies would also have to be on the same page as well. The commanding officers will need to understand that this fight is for the survival of the state. From the general incharge of the operation right down to the junior officers will have to be on the same page as well. Once the millitary started an operation, it will not be for the short term goal, it would be to route the al qaeda network from their secure bases and put them on a move to unsecure grounds. The operation needs to be of a high intensity with speed as a force multiplier. There have been too many half-hearted efforts in the past five plus years, which have lead to one failure after another. The losers have been the pakistani people, pakistani soldiers and the pakistani government. After every peace deal, al qaeda has come out stronger and better organized. Their modus operandi has changed as well. They are openly spreading their message by terror. Public beheadings and suicide bombings have become a common practise. Even the public beheadings of the millitary personale have taken place. It is a shame on the pakistani millitary to take the throat cutting of their soldiers a a minor offence. It is tragic that the pakistani millitary command has become so weak in its management that it cannot protect its own soldiers in their own country.
I firmly believe that the pakistanis are very confused and misdirected at the events that are taking place in their homeland. I believe that a strong effort needs to be made in talking to them through the public forum of the print, news media and live tv. The most significant factor of the conversation needs to be to make the pakistanis believe in their being being pakistanis first and foremost. Once this hurdle is crossed then the man management gets easier.
Pakistan has some other major issues, because of which the public has become disillusioned with the government. First issue is that of law enforcement relating to crime prevention and the execution justice. Pakistanis donot feel secure in their country. Pakistanis feel afraid of their judiciary and the law enforcement agencies. Pakistanis as a matter of fact have no respect left for the law enforcement agencies. The reason being that the police have been abusing their powers for the last sixty years and the public has been their victims. This problem will not go away in a day, but something can be done to stop the crime and punish the criminals. Judges need to work on an expedient and fast track resolution of criminal cases related to violence. The judgements need to be severe in the cases relating to murder, highway robberies, robbery at gun point, kidnappings, rape, child molestation, destruction of public property, hostage taking, aiding and abbetting in terrorist activities, smuggling of food items out of the country. These are a few things, if they can be addressed right away, will bring about a major difference in the attitude of the pakistani public in supporting their government in going after al qaeda.
The big problem is that the people are not getting anything from the government. There is a tremendous shortage of flour, there is lawlessness on the streets, the income of people is low and the price of the food items high. The government ministers are getting richer day by day, the sugar is being smuggled alongwith wheat flour to the neighbouring countries and the people are suffering. Hospitals are out of drugs, the doctors donot want to treat patients at the government run hospitals, unless they go to the private clinics run by those doctors and pay a hefty fee.
There is simply too much turmoil in pakistan at this time. Mismanagement and incompetencey of the managers of the country have brought the nation of pakistan at a crossroads where the threat of falling deeper into the abyss has grown many atimes in the past year. The fighting for political juxta-positioning by the three major political parties has done too much damage to the integrity and solidarity of pakistan. They have disagreed with each other for the last five plus years and made every effort for the other political party to fail so that neither one of them can come out victorious our of this mess. They didnot realize that at the end of the day, it would be pakistan who would be the loser and the pakistani who would suffer the most. The 'me first' approach has been a fatal blow to the welfare of pakistan. There has been so much damage done in the last one year that it is shocking to realize that the party which had done so much to bring about a change in the economy and infra-structure of the industry has been blown out of the government all together.
Mastan Khan

 

[relent8]

Nice article Mastan!!