The End of Saudi Arabia’s Illusion

[LeGenD]

They look dumb bit saudis are not that dumb. They realised that they need to diversify in obama era when obama got close to iran and dis the JCPOA. Since then saudis have got closer to Pakistan, imported alot of weapons. Huge numbers of saudi military are trained by Pakistan. Pakistan also helps them with missile technology. Saudi also got closer to china and russia. Through Pakistan they are becoming oart of CPEC. They also have one of our best generals, who will train them well.
This benefits Pakistan alot too. A frnd of mine is deputed to saudi and he tells me it is giving Pakistan huge huge knowhow of modern weapons and systems. Apart from financial help it also gives us strategic depth. As US becomes reluctant to defend saudi, it will get more n more closer to Pakistan and china.

And what Pakistan and China are doing in regards to Iran? Nothing.

Iran have a strategy to fight a prolonged war - it have installed shiite militias in various countries and it have checkmated KSA in Yemen (via Houthi) as well as Israel in Lebanon (via Hezbollah) and it have a seemingly neutral Iraq acting as a buffer between itself and KSA. Even Pakistan's strategic depth pales in comparison.

US have already fought lengthy wars in Iraq and Afghanistan respectively. They invaded and rebooted political order of Iraq but they had to contend with numerous challenges in the process.

Now KSA expect US to fight another war, leaving KSA to rule over the Middle East? Not wise, and US have reservations. Any country would have.

I want to see China do a Desert Storm for KSA. Not going to happen.

 

[Falcon29]

I don't understand why Saudi Arabia need anyone to Protect them at all. Is Iran even a Threat in case of a conventional war?.
They have NATO Standards Military. Look at their Massive Air force with no match in the region. All its GCC Allies are the same. And the Land Forces are equally matched as well.
What is this trend of comparing BRAVERY and VALIANCE of armies sitting behind the keyboard. Why do everyone is concluding that Saudi Army is coward? Have to fought and lost a major war?
And do you need courage to shot down a 70s era F5 or F14 with an F15 Strike Eagle? Those Pilots are professionally trained by Western Academies and Experts.

I think the real question is is KSA prepared to fight a non-conventional Cold war with Iran without full escalation? That is where KSA is weak and Iran is very strong. Ideologically Driven Militias carefully managed by Mammoth Organization like IRGC. Thats even Pain in the A** for Americans to handle. Iran is perfectly capable of inciting Unrest at Saudi Borders and even inside its borders. I doubt Saudis are capable of any such thing.

AND Pakistanis sitting behind Keyboard Supporting Either Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or Islamic Republic of Iran purely out of "Jazba Emani wa akhuwatte Millat" and Calling Saudi Forces Coward or Irani Forces Terrorists are just "Begani Shadi mei Abdullah Deewana"

It's not the Saudi army, it is the political leadership in Saudi. Saudi army has experience in unconventional warfare, due to the current war with Houthi's and previous ones too. They have a good air force, although I don't know if they can neutralize enemy AD like Israeli Air Force can. People need to learn from Israeli Air Force. They can evade or fool Syrian AD every time they do a strike and they do it from Lebanese airspace not even Syrian. Obviously they have equipment for it, like jamming techniques and missiles they can fire from far away, but I'm sure Saudi's have them or can get them too.

Iranian AD is gonna be harder to get through than Syrian AD if a war broke out without US help neutralizing Iranian AD.

Anyhow, back to the point, Saudi leadership is detached from reality and is trying to apply GCC model to rest of world. The people in GCC like their monarchies because they are wealthy and have developed nations thanks to oil(in the beginning). The rest of Arabs are mostly poor/moderately wealthy and much of their situation is due to corrupt dictatorships and their policies. Saudis think other Arabs share same mindset like them about 'security and prosperity' ie allowing dictatorships to rule and enjoy development. But, they don't understand these other Arab nations are poor and no one want dictatorship anymore.

So in those poorer Arab nations there is much opposition and some of them happen to be Islamist. Islamist or not, though, they are all sidelined by the dictators and Saudi led axis and thus they can't win any support or earn any beneficial allies. In Egypt they have Sisi, in Libya trying to install Haftar. So it is political incompetence hurting the Saudis.

All Arabs would love if Egypt led the Arab world even with their worst dictator as opposed to Saudis, no offense to our Saudi brothers and sisters. This is just the truth, because at least Egyptians have political competence.

 

[Kaniska]

@Timur

You're an idiot man, it will play out exactly how I explained it will.



You're blinded by your hatred for Arabs and therefore it is affecting your judgement/ability to foresee events.

US and Europe Muslims are not going to be involved, not sure why you even mention them.

Rather i would see these things as a smoke screen by both Iran and SA to hide real problem...Anyway, any war between 2 type of contrasting economy is remote...Economically SA is rich and influencial in many countries where as Iran is sanctioned and they have nothing to loose in this war...So why SA will risk its flourishing economy just to counter few drone attacks by opposing parties...

The threshhold for war for SA and rich gulf countries are more than Iran that has nothing left to loose in case of any war...

 

[Falcon29]

And what Pakistan and China are doing in regards to Iran? Nothing.

Iran have a strategy to fight a prolonged war - it have installed shiite militias in various countries and it have checkmated KSA in Yemen (via Houthi) as well as Israel in Lebanon (via Hezbollah) and it have a seemingly neutral Iraq acting as a buffer between itself and KSA. Even Pakistan's strategic depth pales in comparison.

US have already fought lengthy wars in Iraq and Afghanistan respectively. They invaded and rebooted political order of Iraq but they had to contend with numerous challenges in the process.

Now KSA expect US to fight another war, leaving KSA to rule over the Middle East? Not wise, and US have reservations. Any country would have.

I want to see China do a Desert Storm for KSA. Not going to happen.

I agree with you brother, but what leaves me baffled is that Saudi's did not anticipate US disengagement from region and prepare for such an era ahead of time. On contrary, when Mohammed Bin Salman took over, he was foolish to think he is acting out of strength. And cut off ties with Syrian opposition, declared MB a terrorist organization, enforced a blockade on Qatar, kidnapped Hariri, did a war with Yemen(with worst strategies), etc....

Saudi's were in need of improving ties with Qatar, Turkey, reinforcing relationship with Syrian opposition and handling Yemeni arena differently. Instead they burned a bunch of bridges thinking there would be no consequences. Today, they are isolated, Egypt did what it needed to do for them but will do nothing more. Kuwait supports their security but doesn't support their policies. Qatar is self explanatory. UAE now is competing with them in Yemen and other arenas. Bahrain is their only close ally in the Gulf. No one is going to help them in the event of an Iran-Saudi war as no one wants to die for people who think Al-Saud are the best leaders they could have imagined. It's not worth it.

Can you imagine Arab volunteers fighting for them and fending off Iran, only for those same people to return and say this was all thanks to Al-Saud and afterwards they will develop arrogance and start fighting more opposition parties across the whole Arab world? The only way Saudis get help is if someone comes to establish an Caliphate and Islamic rule. And at that point everyone has to bye bye to their previous leaders.

Rather i would see these things as a smoke screen by both Iran and SA to hide real problem...Anyway, any war between 2 type of contrasting economy is remote...Economically SA is rich and influencial in many countries where as Iran is sanctioned and they have nothing to loose in this war...So why SA will risk its flourishing economy just to counter few drone attacks by opposing parties...

The threshhold for war for SA and rich gulf countries are more than Iran that has nothing left to loose in case of any war...

Problem is it's part of long term Iranian strategy, Iran will bring war to them no matter if there was sanctions or no Yemen war. They have been arming Houthi's for a long time. They tried to ignite revolution in Bahrain and Kuwait. They're not gonna stop as their whole policy is based off 'exporting the revolution'. Saudi's were warned everyday for past 7 years to take advantage of Arab spring to their benefit and support the Syrians and what not. Once MBS came into power he 'disengaged' from the region. Problem is Saudi Arabia is not America thousands of miles away from the region. Saudi Arabia is right next to Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and what not. It's not an option for them to 'disengage' like MBS did and now we see the results.

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Everybody was trying to work with the Saudis and Emirates to improve regional situation for them and for other Arabs. Qatar was trying to work with them, Qatar supported their campaign in Yemen initially against the Houthi's and I could've sworn were part of the coalition(if I remember correctly). Turks invited Saudis many times to discuss cooperation in the Syrian arena. Turks were very courteous and wanted a joint Arab-Turkish backing of Syrian opposition. Saudis ignored all of this and instead turned to some neocon think tanks in the US.

Even many American think tanks/ex US administration officials warned them over and over again not to put the Muslim Brotherhood on terrorist list, enforce blockade on Qatar, or antagonize Turkey. And about the need to develop new strategies in the region to counter Iran. They ignored them too.

And worst of all they ignored their Arab brothers and sisters who want to the best for them. They ignored everyone from the Syrian opposition(all their political figureheads) who advised them very politely that they need to take seriously the Iranian threat. They ignored these people who were willing to give them benefit of doubt and were very patient them. Now Turkey is on its own in Syria and still even on its own it can prevent Russia/Iran/Hezbollah/Assad from moving in on Idlib. Because Turkey has competence.

No one knows how to change the mindset of the Saudis. They don't listen to anyone.

 

[LeGenD]

I agree with you brother, but what leaves me baffled is that Saudi's did not anticipate US disengagement from region and prepare for such an era ahead of time. On contrary, when Mohammed Bin Salman took over, he was foolish to think he is acting out of strength. And cut off ties with Syrian opposition, declared MB a terrorist organization, enforced a blockade on Qatar, kidnapped Hariri, did a war with Yemen(with worst strategies), etc....

Saudi's were in need of improving ties with Qatar, Turkey, reinforcing relationship with Syrian opposition and handling Yemeni arena differently. Instead they burned a bunch of bridges thinking there would be no consequences. Today, they are isolated, Egypt did what it needed to do for them but will do nothing more. Kuwait supports their security but doesn't support their policies. Qatar is self explanatory. UAE now is competing with them in Yemen and other arenas. Bahrain is their only close ally in the Gulf. No one is going to help them in the event of an Iran-Saudi war as no one wants to die for people who think Al-Saud are the best leaders they could have imagined. It's not worth it.

Can you imagine Arab volunteers fighting for them and fending off Iran, only for those same people to return and say this was all thanks to Al-Saud and afterwards they will develop arrogance and start fighting more opposition parties across the whole Arab world? The only way Saudis get help is if someone comes to establish an Caliphate and Islamic rule. And at that point everyone has to bye bye to their previous leaders.



Problem is it's part of long term Iranian strategy, Iran will bring war to them no matter if there was sanctions or no Yemen war. They have been arming Houthi's for a long time. They tried to ignite revolution in Bahrain and Kuwait. They're not gonna stop as their whole policy is based off 'exporting the revolution'. Saudi's were warned everyday for past 7 years to take advantage of Arab spring to their benefit and support the Syrians and what not. Once MBS came into power he 'disengaged' from the region. Problem is Saudi Arabia is not America thousands of miles away from the region. Saudi Arabia is right next to Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and what not. It's not an option for them to 'disengage' like MBS did and now we see the results.

You have a point here.

Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) have committed some political blunders which have even put off Americans to a certain extent. Khashoggi saga and international reactions to it - highlighted these tensions clearly. Not only this but MBS have also weakened the GCC bloc by penalizing Qatar which is hosting largest American military base in the ME yet.

Democrats in particular, see something in Iran; they notice a country where China can establish a solid base and influence course of events in the ME consequently. Options are also limited; either US warm up to Iran or risk war with Iran in the near term.

Iran might be willing to work with the Great Satan but it is also trying to encircle Israel with its shiite militias - a geopolitical move which the American deep state find completely unacceptable (therefore, US want to stay in Syria for indefinite period even though Donald Trump opposed this decision in person) because Israel is an exceedingly important ally in the region with no clear substitute in sight even in the long-term. US now also have to deal with an increasingly assertive Turkey in the ME under Recep Tayyip Erdogan on top.

Therefore, current American posture is to continue to observe developments in (and around) the ME, and continue to milk Shiite-Sunni DIVIDE across the ME to the benefit of its military industrial complex (sales of arms to allies in the region; strengthen American military bases in the region) until the fate of Donald Trump is decided in the upcoming elections and Americans are able to build a consensus over what to do in ME for long-term.

 

[Falcon29]

You have a point here.

Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) have committed some political blunders which have even put off Americans to a certain extent. Khashoggi saga and international reactions to it - highlighted these tensions clearly. Not only this but MBS have also weakened the GCC bloc by penalizing Qatar which is hosting largest American military base in the ME yet.

Democrats in particular, see something in Iran; they notice a country where China can establish a solid base and influence course of events in the ME consequently. Options are also limited; either US warm up to Iran or risk war with Iran in the near term.

Iran might be willing to work with the Great Satan but it is also trying to encircle Israel with its shiite militias - a geopolitical move which the American deep state find completely unacceptable (therefore, US want to stay in Syria for indefinite period even though Donald Trump opposed this decision in person) because Israel is an exceedingly important ally in the region with no clear substitute in sight even in the long-term. US now also have to deal with an increasingly assertive Turkey in the ME under Recep Tayyip Erdogan on top.

Therefore, current American posture is to continue to observe developments in (and around) the ME, and continue to milk Shiite-Sunni DIVIDE across the ME to the benefit of its military industrial complex (sales of arms to allies in the region; strengthen American military bases in the region) until the fate of Donald Trump is decided in the upcoming elections and Americans are able to build a consensus over what to do in ME for long-term.

I notice also Japan, Germany, France and China have a tight relationship with Iran and want this nuclear deal to succeed. Iranians are basically going through all the hard work and sacrifice that will pay off for their future. Which is what the Saudis need to do but aren't willing to do it. Iranians also proving they can innovate and formulate effective strategies and could be reliable ally in the region for some of these nations.

I wonder where Americans/Iranians might come to terms on some matters. And would this mean US will dump Saudi Arabia for Iran if the Israel question is solved?

 

[Dinky]

Saudi Arabia with their $100 billion+ dollars of american weapons, third highest military budget in the world, multiple times bigger than Iran's, still needs America to protect it.

Iran sneezed and Saudi Arabia lost half its oil production, Turkey placed a few soldiers in Qatar and the entire kingdom shook in its boots. Saudis are nothing without their american patrons who continue to milk them today

 

[Glass]

I wonder where Americans/Iranians might come to terms on some matters. And would this mean US will dump Saudi Arabia for Iran if the Israel question is solved?

The saudis wont last long they are irrelevant and will become even more irrelevant. But nations like qatar and uae will somewhat be comfortable in the future as long as they make intelligent investments (like qatar does in Turkey for example) But if the emiratis continue to follow a policy which hurt the interests of turkey they will be in more trouble in the future because as we can see the americans arent really interested in fighting for u or defending u.

 

[raptor22]

How a Saudi/Gulf-Iranian would play out, excluding what ignites such a war:

-Iranian, Iraqi, Lebanese, Yemeni strikes on Saudi Arabia and maybe UAE
-Saudi monarchy collapses but Saudi army fights on
-Invasion of Saudi via Iraq by Shia militias/volunteers from around world, maybe Iranian forces too
-Saudi civilian population not accustomed to war and has to organize/regroup, during this Saudis will be taking lots of casualties and losing ground
-Because no authority is left, calls for Jihad begin
-Arabs start with Israel before Iran, from the direction of Egypt, because Israel and the US will attack Arabs if they invade Iran
-Arabs defeat Israel, then head to Saudi Arabia to repel Shia invasion
-Arabs begin invading Iran, Iranians who say death to US and Israel, and accuse Arabs of being client stats of US, will make calls to US/European media/forums and beg them to come save them citing reasons such as if Iran fell an Sunni Caliphate will be established and they will invade Europe and subjugate minorities and how they are brothers in ideology and share common enemy(Sunni Muslims).

Ironically it is presence of Israel protecting Iran. If Arabs made an effort to invade Iran, they will be accussed of being ISIS and international coalition will invade much of Arab world. But Shia militias can invade Saudis no problem. Arabs have to deal with Israel first, which will deter any international coalition from intervening in the process of repelling Shia militias/Iran.



Israel/Nato/US are protecting Iran. If Arabs invade Iran whole of US/NATO/Israel and other coalition countries will invade from Arabs from behind to stop invasion of Iran. Because it will become Jihad fard if Saudi Arabia is invaded and the Saudi regime collapses. Lots of Muslims from Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco , Algeria will come to help the Saudis and they have to get through Israel first(via Egypt).

Because it also becomes jihad fard(organized, no ISIS like atrocities), it will still freak the world out that the Arabs will finally done with Israel and Iran and establish Sunni Caliphate so there is huge risk of international coalition invading Egypt(to help Israel) and maybe Syria/Iraq to help Iran and try preventing Sunni Caliphate from being established(even though Sunnis decide what they want and that's no one business).

So fighting Iran means fighting Israel, US and NATO and maybe other countries who help Iran. Unless Trump lets go of Israel and Iran and lets the people decide their fate.

The colonialists left Iran to be a very big nation and not many small ones like they did with Arabs because they saw it as essential to prevent Sunni big bloc or empire in the region.

I am telling all Arabs again all Arabs here or around the world whom have big mouth and little actions>>>> ATTACK isreal right now ... no one prevent you ... do the jihad right now ....
why dragging Iran in your stupid caliphate? why waiting for future?
If You capable of attacking isreal and defeat it with no the us/European reaction to it in a way you could come and invade Iran (LOL) afterwards then go ahead by all means attack isreal now ...

The only reason behind Arab troubles is the these kind of unrealistic/wrong understandings of the world/religion and ... and it gets worse as it passes ...