The End of Dollar Hegemony? Thinkers forum · Zhang Weiwei & Aleksandr Dugin & Ejaz Akram

[dbc]

LOL, some of my families are in oil and gas sector, some has experience working in UAE, Qatar, and European nation. One of them work in British Petroleoum in Indonesia. Those are young people. Graduates that cannot be absorbed by SOE like Pertamina will work in national companies or abroad.

Do you think our university graduate in oil and gas sectors are jobless and the job is done by Westerners instead ? We have many state and private owned universities who produce a lot engineers in that sector every year. Even one of my cousin get hired by Dutch survey company with home base in Singapore after he graduated from one of Indonesian universities, basically he is fresh graduate. Now he leave the job and made his own survey company in Indonesia, still below 40 years old.

View attachment 873552

LOCAL CONTENT IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY

Many drilling and drilling equipment companies are Indonesian local companies as we also have regulation for minimum local content in oil and gas sector. I also have one family member as former CEO of Indonesia private owned drilling companies so I understand this sector quite well.

Many drilling equipment are also made in Indonesia.

PT Bukaka, owned by Yusuf Kalla

This is the information coming from the news

Jambaran Tiung Biru Project will be on stream this year. The project is done by 100 percent Indonesian workers and companies, beside PT Pertamina drilling service, there are 42 local companies contributing on the project. Project cost is 1.5 billion USD. It is large gas block with 2.5 trillion Cubic Feet reserve

Here see some of Indonesian local companies made equipment for the Jambaran project

View attachment 873546

Dukung Target Pemerintah, PDSI Berinvestasi Rig Baru | Pertamina

Target pemerintah mencapai lifting minyak 1 juta barel dan gas 12 miliar standar kaki kubik per hari pada 2030 mendorong PDSI meningkatkan investasi mulai 2021.

www.pertamina.com

View attachment 873542

WHO WE ARE​

PT. Petrodrill Manufaktur Indonesia is an API certified leading Engineering and Manufacturing Company for Drilling Rig and Drilling Components such as Substructure, Mast, Crown Block, Mud Pump, Sheave, Drawwork, Mud/Water Tank, Loading Ram, Poorboy Gas Separator, and many others.

We understand every customer is unique. Therefor, PT. Petrodrill Manufaktur Indonesia provide solutions according to customer’s specific needs to increase their productivity.

https://www.petrodrill.co.id/about-us.html

Another one, local company made equipment for Jimbaran gas project. This is state owned enterprises

Did I say Indonesians engineers in the oil and gas sector are unemployed in Indonesia? And what makes you think that western firms don't employ Indonesians in Indonesia? What made you jump to that silly conclusion?

The world wide market share for oilfield service companies is 80% western possibly higher. Western firms have a monopoly on upstream oil and gas, sure there are Asian firms in the low tech, low complexity and low cost tier.

You specifically called out Jambaran Tiung Biru Project as being 100% Indonesian. Wrong!

Jambaran Tiung Biru Project will be on stream this year. The project is done by 100 percent Indonesian workers and companies

In Indonesia, Schlumberger successfully deployed ACTive* real-time downhole coiled tubing services and CIRP* completion insertion and removal under pressure equipment for the first time in the country to perforate 800 ft of net interval in one trip for Pertamina EP Cepu. The rigless intervention solutions enabled an effective completion method with minimum intervention runs and accurate depth placement on high-rate gas wells. This is also the first Schlumberger worldwide application for ACTive DTS* distributed temperature measurement and inversion analysis on a live well flowing 60 MMscf/d of gas with 8,000 ppm H2S and 25% CO2. This project is considered a key milestone for the country and is expected to produce gas from Jambaran-Tiung Biru Field with average raw gas production of 315 MMscf/d from six wells by Q4 2021. https://investorcenter.slb.com/news-releases/news-release-details/schlumberger-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2020-0

Indonesia isn't the only country to use local suppliers for low tech services such as water/mud tanks and drilling structures, masts and such even countries in Africa source those components locally.

Here are a few more examples, Schlumberger and Pertamina El Nusa for reservoir characterization, drilling, production, surface production facilities and integrated services. Pertamina and Chevron for carbon sequestering. Boots & Coots for well control and environmental clean up. Directional drilling by Halliburton. As a matter of fact all gas lift and electrical submersible pumps in all Indonesian wells requiring artificial lift is supplied by western firms. Sure, the Indonesians may like to fly the 100% indigenous banner for public consumption but the Indonesia oil and gas sector will not function without access to western technology despite your objections.

Elnusa – Schlumberger Lanjutkan Kerja Sama Jasa Hulu Migas

Elnusa terus mengoptimalkan kompetensi dan sumber daya lini servis bisnis unit hulu melalui penandatanganan kerja sama dengan Schlumberger

investor.id

Chevron and Pertamina announce partnership on lower carbon opportunities

www.euro-petrole.com

Oil spill in Indonesia to cost state firm millions

Indonesian state oil and gas giant Pertamina has to spend hundreds of billions of rupiah (tens of millions of US dollars) to deal with a broken well that has been spilling oil for more than a month at its Offshore North West Java (ONWJ) Block.

www.phnompenhpost.com

Komisi VII DPR RI Mendesak Kementerian ESDM Cabut Izin Pengeboran Halliburton

Komisi VII DPR RI mendesak Dirjen EBTKE Kementerian ESDM cabut izin pengeboran Halliburton Drilling Systems Indonesia

industri.kontan.co.id

PLN and Halliburton to cooperate on geothermal development in Indonesia

State-owned utility PLN and U.S. oil service firm Halliburton have signed a new cooperation agreement on the development of geothermal working areas owned by PLN in Indonesia.

www.thinkgeoenergy.com

 

[Indos]

Did I say Indonesians engineers in the oil and gas sector are unemployed in Indonesia? And what makes you think that western firms don't employ Indonesians in Indonesia? What made you jump to that silly conclusion?

The world wide market share for oilfield service companies is 80% western possibly higher. Western firms have a monopoly on upstream oil and gas, sure there are Asian firms in the low tech, low complexity and low cost tier.

You specifically called out Jambaran Tiung Biru Project as being 100% Indonesian. Wrong!

PLN and Halliburton to cooperate on geothermal development in Indonesia

State-owned utility PLN and U.S. oil service firm Halliburton have signed a new cooperation agreement on the development of geothermal working areas owned by PLN in Indonesia.

www.thinkgeoenergy.com

I never said Jambaran Tiung Biru project has 100 % local content. I just make a translation from the video where the information coming from Pertamina. The video only tell that Jambaran Tiung Biru project uses 100 % Indonesian workers and local companies. Of course they will use some imported component as well.


---------------------

Here the fact about local content. We measure the local content of oil and gas project and also in other industry, like in automobile it is important to determine the tax. State owned companies also has more pressure to have higher local content.


Upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia uses 63 % of local content ( goods and services made by Indonesian ) in the first semester of 2022. It is related to drilling and other upstream related activities.

Source :

Lewati Target, Realisasi TKDN Hulu Migas Semester I Capai 63%

SKK Migas mencatat realisasi TKDN hulu migas pada semester I-2022 sudah mencapai 63%

www.cnbcindonesia.com

 

[dbc]

Your narratives are so full of holes that it shouldn't take a reasonably intelligent person to KO your arguments. First of all, despite the boasts of equipment advantage, the West must still bend to the energy producers of the scale of Russia. Didn't you know Canada immediately return the gas turbines to Russia after hearing Putin "Well, if you're not returning the gas turbines then I won't deliver NG to Europe" smirk? It wasn't a threat from Putin. He just stated the consequences and Canada and Siemens immediately knelt. Who are more in need of the gas turbines? In a market economy where there are no restrictions on capital and resources, technologies command better added values. In times of war or the 'sanctions' that we're in now, resources do. But it's the West who install restrictions that shoot their own feet, no?

Second, no country is trying to displace the dollars. China has said many times it's not trying to displace America's throne and yet let its yuan freely traded. For the world, it's important already using non-dollar to trade with each other. The reduction of reliance on the dollars will reduce their exposure of being 'harvested' the hard-earned wealth they spent years accumulating. On the contrary, the shift to using non-dollars to trade will reduce the American abilities to 'export inflation' and 'harvest wealth' from other countries.

Third, it's not a fantasy. It's already happening. Did you just crawl out from the rocks?

You are missing the forest for the tree, bottom line Russia cannot pump gas through its Nord Stream lines without working turbines from the west - a well established single point of failure. When you extrapolate to the entire industry it is clear that Russia's ability to sustain O&G production at historic levels, at levels necessary to remain relevant in the energy market largely depends on access to western technology.

Sure they have leverage over Germany short term a self inflicted injury. But Germany will recalibrate, diversify to other sources and de-risk with coal to fill gaps short term. Russia however don't have any good options, energy exports is the life blood of their economy and they don't have the industrial base or the know-how to pivot.

Russia will eventually be forced to make concessions to reset its relations with the west. It's only a matter of time and once Western Europe eliminates its energy dependence on Russia, Russia will have no chips to bargain with the west.

As for your second point, nations around the world prefer not to use dollars for trade if they don't have to - nothing new, no earth shattering revelation here. There is no bold shift, they use dollars to de-risk, they use dollars for escrow in western banks; banks that both trading parties trust.They hold dollars to secure their own currency and they buy notes as a means to park money with secure yields. They use dollars because it is the only stable currency that is universally accepted in return for goods or services.

 

[KAL-EL]

Oh.. another one of these.

 

[dbc]

Here the fact about local content. We measure the local content of oil and gas project and also in other industry, like in automobile it is important to determine the tax. State owned companies also has more pressure to have higher local content.

Sorry to burst your bubble but some of the companies I listed earlier are all local Indonesian legal entities on paper. Companies create legal structures to meet LCR requirements, some import parts and assemble locally. Others find local suppliers for services such as transportation, site security, catering or waste disposal. Many source local raw materials like conventional drill mud, pipes etc. The LCR policy is effective in generating local employment but does next to nothing to build a foundation for climbing the technology value chain.

 

[Indos]

Sorry to burst your bubble but some of the companies I listed earlier are all local Indonesian legal entities on paper. Companies create legal structures to meet LCR requirements, some import parts and assemble locally. Others find local suppliers for services such as transportation, site security, catering or waste disposal. Many source local raw materials like conventional drill mud, pipes etc. The LCR policy is effective in generating local employment but does next to nothing to build a foundation for climbing the technology value chain.

Those local state owned companies you listed are not manufacturing companies, like PT Elnusa, PT Pertamina, PT PLN are not manufacturing companies. Do you think British Petroleoum and Exxon Mobile are manufacturing their oil and gas equipment ?

I have posted some of the manufacturing companies who provide equipment for Pertamina in Jambaran Tiung Project :

PT Bukaka, owned by Yusuf Kalla

State Owned Company, PT Bima Bosma Indra

Indonesian manufacturing companies also exports component parts, showing they dont just assembler :

SURYA.co.id | SURABAYA - PT Barata Indonesia (Persero) has again exported power plant component products.

This time, Barata Indonesia through the Power Plant Division exported two units of Low Pressure Outer Casing ( LP Outer Casing) to Ulsan, South Korea, owned by leading LPG supplier SK Gas Ltd, Monday (22/8/2022).

MSN

PT BARATA Indonesia (state owned Heavy Industry)

Translation

The Power Division, through the Turbine Component Factory in Cilegon, exported power plant components on Friday, April 16, 2021. This time, PT Barata Indonesia (Persero) exported the components of the Silo Combustion Chamber power plant to Zhoushan, China.

The main component of the gas turbine (Combustion Chamber) will be used in Zhejiang Petrochemical Co.'s Zhoushan GT 20 project. Ltd. Do you know #baratizen, all components are made using high quality steel raw materials supplied by local companies. This is in line with the company's mission to continue to improve the competitiveness of the national manufacturing industry through a commitment to the use of high local content.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1383405712169070601

--------------------------------------

State Owned Company

PT Barata (Heavy Industry)

Turbin component made for South Korean power plant

https://twitter.com/x/status/1369451928510468099

PT Boma Bisma Indra gets 94 Pressure Vessel (PV) and 1 Column order for Refinery project from another SOE company, PT Pertamina.

Wednesday, August 19, 2020 at exactly 01.00 WIB, PT Boma Bisma Indra (Persero) successfully completed and delivered the product order for the Gas Development Project - Jambaran Tiung Biru Field, namely the Pressure Vessel Feed Gas Coalescer. This project belongs to Pertamina EP Cepu, which is a National Project Strategy which is quite important for Indonesia, because this project brings closer to the goal of self-sufficiency in BBM / BBG.

Successively completed by BBI personnel, orders from the Jambaran Tiung Biru Project, starting from the Absorber and Selexol Regenerator Tower, 16 units of Pressure Vessel (CS-Cladding), and today successfully completed and delivered 2 units of Pressure Vessel Feed Gas Coalescer (GFC) with the material specifications used 516 70N + cladding 304L.

The function of the FGC is as a fluid filter in the form of natural gas that enters the FGC with an operating pressure of 38.5 bar and an operating temperature of 22.7 degrees Celsius. The success of BBI in completing the products in this project is expected to increase confidence in the work of BBI personnel as well as concrete evidence in developing Indonesia.

Detail Berita | PT Boma Bisma Indra

This is Automotive industry, we dont just assembler, even Astra also make machinery for factory production

 

[dbc]

Those local state owned companies you listed are not manufacturing companies, like PT Elnusa, PT Pertamina, PT PLN are not manufacturing companies. Do you think British Petroleoum and Exxon Mobile are manufacturing their oil and gas equipment ?

I have posted some of the manufacturing companies who provide equipment for Pertamina in Jambaran Tiung Project :

PT Bukaka, owned by Yusuf Kalla

State Owned Company, PT Bima Bosma Indra

Indonesian manufacturing companies also exports component parts, showing they dont just assembler :

SURYA.co.id | SURABAYA - PT Barata Indonesia (Persero) has again exported power plant component products.

This time, Barata Indonesia through the Power Plant Division exported two units of Low Pressure Outer Casing ( LP Outer Casing) to Ulsan, South Korea, owned by leading LPG supplier SK Gas Ltd, Monday (22/8/2022).

MSN

PT BARATA Indonesia (state owned Heavy Industry)

Translation

The Power Division, through the Turbine Component Factory in Cilegon, exported power plant components on Friday, April 16, 2021. This time, PT Barata Indonesia (Persero) exported the components of the Silo Combustion Chamber power plant to Zhoushan, China.

The main component of the gas turbine (Combustion Chamber) will be used in Zhejiang Petrochemical Co.'s Zhoushan GT 20 project. Ltd. Do you know #baratizen, all components are made using high quality steel raw materials supplied by local companies. This is in line with the company's mission to continue to improve the competitiveness of the national manufacturing industry through a commitment to the use of high local content.

View attachment 873696

https://twitter.com/x/status/1383405712169070601

--------------------------------------

State Owned Company

PT Barata (Heavy Industry)

Turbin component made for South Korean power plant
View attachment 873697

https://twitter.com/x/status/1369451928510468099

PT Boma Bisma Indra gets 94 Pressure Vessel (PV) and 1 Column order for Refinery project from another SOE company, PT Pertamina.

View attachment 873695
Wednesday, August 19, 2020 at exactly 01.00 WIB, PT Boma Bisma Indra (Persero) successfully completed and delivered the product order for the Gas Development Project - Jambaran Tiung Biru Field, namely the Pressure Vessel Feed Gas Coalescer. This project belongs to Pertamina EP Cepu, which is a National Project Strategy which is quite important for Indonesia, because this project brings closer to the goal of self-sufficiency in BBM / BBG.

Successively completed by BBI personnel, orders from the Jambaran Tiung Biru Project, starting from the Absorber and Selexol Regenerator Tower, 16 units of Pressure Vessel (CS-Cladding), and today successfully completed and delivered 2 units of Pressure Vessel Feed Gas Coalescer (GFC) with the material specifications used 516 70N + cladding 304L.

The function of the FGC is as a fluid filter in the form of natural gas that enters the FGC with an operating pressure of 38.5 bar and an operating temperature of 22.7 degrees Celsius. The success of BBI in completing the products in this project is expected to increase confidence in the work of BBI personnel as well as concrete evidence in developing Indonesia.

Detail Berita | PT Boma Bisma Indra

This is Automotive industry, we dont just assembler, even Astra also make machinery for factory production

I am referring to upstream oil and gas exploration and production. The upstream exploration activity begins with satellite survey, aerial survey followed by seismic survey. Seismic survey, is split into land and marine. land survey crews use specialized equipment which consists of a vibrator truck, a recorder and geophones laid out over miles. Typical land seismic crews consists of hundreds of people laying out receivers and cables and recording energy returns from the earth. A survey can last several months and generate terabytes of data that is processed using specialized geophysical data processing software that provides sufficient information about the field to govern investment decisions.

Marine seismic survey requires specialized vessels, that stream receivers behind it to record acoustic returns from the surface.

Next is drilling, a lot of local companies can drill vertically. Drilling vertical wells is cheap but inefficient and dramatically reduces recovery rates of the well. The real complexity is in drilling horizontally while logging and acquiring data for accurate wellbore placement. Once the well is drilled there are hundreds of downhole tools that can be attached to the drill string to take all sorts of measurements to help model the reservoir. All this acquisition data is fed into specialized modeling software to build 3D models to fully understand the characteristics of the reservoir and how best to exploit it, build what if scenarios to model cause and effect. Then there is cementing, coil tubing and hundreds of other specialized tools and services that is required to produce a well and sustain production for many years. I could go on and on, and speak about ESP's,BOP's, semisubmersibles, fracking, enhanced recovery and so on the reality is there is no Indonesian firm that is anywhere near western levels of technology and scientific expertise.

You can keep posting hundreds of pictures of metal rigs, coalescers and low tech power turbines made by Indonesian companies. There is nothing complex about that stuff, a lot of developing nations build that stuff locally.

I am done with this topic and refuse to waste anymore of my time giving you a reality check.

 

[MajesticPug]

You are missing the forest for the tree, bottom line Russia cannot pump gas through its Nord Stream lines without working turbines from the west - a well established single point of failure. When you extrapolate to the entire industry it is clear that Russia's ability to sustain O&G production at historic levels, at levels necessary to remain relevant in the energy market largely depends on access to western technology.

Sure they have leverage over Germany short term a self inflicted injury. But Germany will recalibrate, diversify to other sources and de-risk with coal to fill gaps short term. Russia however don't have any good options, energy exports is the life blood of their economy and they don't have the industrial base or the know-how to pivot.

Russia will eventually be forced to make concessions to reset its relations with the west. It's only a matter of time and once Western Europe eliminates its energy dependence on Russia, Russia will have no chips to bargain with the west.

As for your second point, nations around the world prefer not to use dollars for trade if they don't have to - nothing new, no earth shattering revelation here. There is no bold shift, they use dollars to de-risk, they use dollars for escrow in western banks; banks that both trading parties trust.They hold dollars to secure their own currency and they buy notes as a means to park money with secure yields. They use dollars because it is the only stable currency that is universally accepted in return for goods or services.

Looks like Russia is pumping gas and oil fine without your 'western' turbines. Their incomes from the energy actually rose and are doing better after the sanction. Hm... I wonder what achievements did the sanctions get for the West? Comes October Europeans are going to decide which three spots they need to wash and there might be competitions to break the records of taking showers. In the US, many households are feeling the pinch from energy bills. So it looks more like, before the Russians make concessions, the Europeans and Americans will beg the Russians to forgive them. LOL..

My second point lays out a significant development in people's move from the dollar imprisonment. It will be recorded in history a 'significant' shift. Although the dollars will be used in most of the transactions, the shift to non-dollar transactions, if it ever get to 25-30%, will significantly reduce America's ability to export inflation and harvest third-world countries' hard-earned money. This may take longer to witness.

 

[Viet]

I said the energy sector will accelerate the shift, I never mean Rubel backed Russian oil transaction as the main force of that shift from USD domination to more balance one. Look on my second post in first page when I tried to explain it to @Viet

Many Central Banks have already tried to move away from USD domination transaction and of course this shift will take times to reach the target to have more balance trading system instead of dominated by USD.

The use of USD as national reserve in many countries will also likely to fall gradually as many countries are now not as confident as before with their USD reserve after Western sanction on Russia, and the volume of non USD transaction in international trade will likely to increase due to many Central Banks swap agreement.

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Bank Indonesia and The People's Bank of China have renewed the Bilateral Currency Swap Arrangement (BCSA) on January 21, 2022. The Agreement allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to CNY250 billion or IDR550 trillion (about USD 38.8 billion equivalent).

Bank Indonesia and The People’s Bank Of China Renew The Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement

www.bi.go.id

There is a run into the dollar. Nearly almost all currencies get beaten by the strong dollar. I don’t know where you get the theory the end of the dollar is near.

Sure, Indonesia can buy Russian oil and pay in rubble, however the sum involved is negligible.

 

[Indos]

I never said Jambaran Tiung Biru project has 100 % local content. I just make a translation from the video where the information coming from Pertamina. The video only tell that Jambaran Tiung Biru project uses 100 % Indonesian workers and local companies. Of course they will use some imported component as well.


---------------------

Here the fact about local content. We measure the local content of oil and gas project and also in other industry, like in automobile it is important to determine the tax. State owned companies also has more pressure to have higher local content.


Upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia uses 63 % of local content ( goods and services made by Indonesian ) in the first semester of 2022. It is related to drilling and other upstream related activities.

Source :

Lewati Target, Realisasi TKDN Hulu Migas Semester I Capai 63%

SKK Migas mencatat realisasi TKDN hulu migas pada semester I-2022 sudah mencapai 63%

www.cnbcindonesia.com

Improving local content is started from having our own company who design the project. Jambaran Tiung Baru project detail design is made by another SOE. I never said our upstream oil and gas industry uses 100 % local content, but based on data it is 63 % and we still need Western companies to complete the project. I think I have balance opinion on this matter and supported by fact as the source I put is credible with calculation in USD.

Jambaran Tiung Biru project detail design is made by another SOE, PT Rekayasa Engineering

It is a subsidiary of another SOE

 

[James David]

From 2 months ago, an interesting academic discussion between Zhang Weiwei (Director of China Institute of Fudan University), Aleksandr Dugin (the one that lost his daughter in the car bombing) and Ejaz Akram (advisor to Imran Khan) about what they think the future of the global financial system will look like:

Oh my GODS what are we goin to do's! We're doomed!!! Let's all migrate to China!

@gambit @jhungary

 

[jhungary]

Oh my GODS what are we goin to do's! We're doomed!!! Let's all migrate to China!

@gambit @jhungary

I don't really need to migrate to China......I already have accounts and properties there.......

So long suckers..........

(I am being ironic)