The Economist: India China export growth rates

[KALKI]

Is India becoming an export powerhouse?​

IT IS common to posit that India’s economy is more self-contained than China’s. Lately the facts have got in the way. In dollar terms China still sells five times more than India, but relative to output, exports of goods and services from India have been chugging up while those from China have fallen. Measured this way the two countries are converging (see chart).

This runs so counter to gut instinct— India is meant to be hopeless at making things—that many mutter about unreliable data. Some reckon firms are over-invoicing for exports to ship black money back into the country. But Sajjid Chinoy of JPMorgan Chase has tallied the official figures against India’s trade partners’ numbers and data on port traffic. He says the conspiracy theories are flimsy.

Two shifts are happening. First, India no longer only sells simple things such as jewels. A decade ago engineering and petrochemicals were 14% of goods exports; now they are 42%, says Rohini Malkani of Citigroup. Second, the share of goods exported to slothful America and Europe has dropped from a half to a third. India is selling more complex products to a wider and perkier group of trade partners. Small firms are doing a lot of the work, says T.C.A. Ranganathan of Export-Import Bank of India.

Could India become a “surplus” country like China? The government hopes so, having set as one of its targets—a typical mix of technocratic forecast and armchair bombast—that goods exports will hit $500 billion in three years’ time, double last year’s level. Despite the recent drop in the rupee, most economists are less brave: goods-export growth rates are expected to slow from some 50% in the past two quarters to 20% for the full year, thanks in part to a global slowdown. As for services, which are a third of the overall export basket, they are dominated by software, sold mainly to America and Europe, and may wilt.

Even if exports remain on fire, India likes spending the proceeds on imports more than China does. The result is a modest but stubborn current-account deficit. Relying on capital flows to fund that is not always comfortable. But no one in India wants to fall into China’s trap of giant surpluses that are recycled as loans to weak Western governments.

India

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

List of sovereign states by current account balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you want to become a trade surplus nation like China/Germany/Japan, you first have to sort out that trade deficit problem you have.

Why buy things from overseas that you can make yourself? Keep the jobs back home.

 

[KALKI]

List of sovereign states by current account balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you want to be a big exporter, you've gotta get rid of that trade deficit.

Why buy things from overseas that you can make yourself?

Guess what genius? Current Account is dependant on a lot of things than just wikipedia.

Afghanistan has better current account balance than both India and Pakistan, as per your own link

Hence, Afghanistan is a bigger exporter than both India and Pakistan, I guess, eh?

 

[bandit]

List of sovereign states by current account balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you want to be a big exporter, you've gotta get rid of that trade deficit.

Why buy things from overseas that you can make yourself?

Trade deficit or surplus is a result of being an net export economy, not the other way round.

What else can you suggest for trade earnings if not spend? Hoard it like Chinese and lend out to others to use?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Guess what genius? Current Account is dependant on a lot of things than just wikipedia.

Afghanistan has better current account balance than both India and Pakistan, as per your own link

Guess what genius? Did you read the title of the article?

"Is India becoming an export powerhouse?"

Check that list to see who the current export powerhouses are. China, Germany, Japan, etc.

India on the other hand, has a trade deficit. When America and Britain were rising powers, they both held the crown of the largest manufacturer in the world.

 

[harshad]

Guess what genius? Did you read the title of the article?

"Is India becoming an export powerhouse?"

Check that list to see who the current export powerhouses are. China, Germany, Japan, etc.

India on the other hand, has a trade deficit. When America and Britain were rising powers, they both held the crown of the largest manufacturer in the world.

you must understand the we are trying to become one and not at current

 

[KALKI]

Guess what genius? Did you read the title of the article?

"Is India becoming an export powerhouse?"

Check that list to see who the current export powerhouses are. China, Germany, Japan, etc.

India on the other hand, has a trade deficit. When America and Britain were rising powers, they both held the crown of the largest manufacturer in the world.

Wow!...and whatever happened to your wikipedia links and the current account thingy?

Oh and about the thread topic...the chart says it all.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

you must understand the we are trying to become one and not at current

Yes, hence my very first post on this thread:

IF you want to be a big exporter, you've gotta get rid of that trade deficit.

Why buy things from overseas that you can make yourself? Keep the jobs back home.

---

Wow!...and whatever happened to your wikipedia links and the current account thingy?

Wikipedia sourced it from the World Factbook and the IMF. You can check the links yourself if you want, everyone knows that India has a trade deficit.

 

[eiffe]

List of sovereign states by current account balance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If you want to be a big exporter, you've gotta get rid of that trade deficit.

Why buy things from overseas that you can make yourself? Keep the jobs back home.

Hi friend, you have said absolutely right. India needs to have surplus. But also consider the fact that India imports a lot of commodities which it reprocesses and exports back. And till the time these sectors are not developed domestically for production, India will remain to have a negative account balance.This is the main reason why you dont see India as a trade surplus country. The two best examples that can be given are:

1.Imports of tea leaves that India does, which it reprocesses and exports back to western countries. These are imported mainly from Sri Lanka.

2. India exports double the amount of petrol products than China cause it has surplus refinery capacity more than its present needs.

So, with import costs involved, these exceed export orders and therefore CAD remains negative.

Cheers

 

[bandit]

Guess what genius? Did you read the title of the article?

"Is India becoming an export powerhouse?"

Check that list to see who the current export powerhouses are. China, Germany, Japan, etc.

India on the other hand, has a trade deficit. When America and Britain were rising powers, they both held the crown of the largest manufacturer in the world.

Little knowledge is dangerous for you, you risk being treated as a fool.


Check the list for top ten exporters, India is at number 5.

Rank Country Exports Date of
information
— World $14,920,000,000,000 2010 est.
— European Union (minus internal trade) $1,952,000,000,000[1] 2010 est.
1 People's Republic of China $1,581,000,000,000 2010 est.
2 Germany $1,303,000,000,000 2010 est.
3 United States $1,289,000,000,000 2010 est.
4 Japan $765,200,000,000 2010 est.
5 India $517,300,000,000 2010 est.
6 France $485,900,000,000 2010 est.
7 South Korea $464,300,000,000 2010 est.
8 Italy $448,400,000,000 2010 est.
9 United Kingdom $410,300,000,000 2010 est.

Trade deficit is not a metric to measure exports, its a result of exports.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Little knowledge is dangerous for you, you risk being treated as a fool.

Check the list for top ten exporters, India is at number 5.

Trade deficit is not a metric to measure exports, its a result of exports.

Firstly, source?

Secondly, according to your link... China's exports in 2010 (1.6 trillion) were bigger than India's ENTIRE GDP for the same year.

Our "cheap and low quality" products are worth more than India's entire economy.

Trade deficit is not a metric to measure exports, its a result of exports.

Your trade balance is negative, which means your imports cost more than your exports brought in. That negative trade balance builds up every year.

 

[53fd]

I don't know why the Economist is trying to bring China into this article, trying to prop India up to its level, when it is far ahead of India in terms of export. The Economist is losing its credibility quickly, becoming more & more like the toilet paper I use.

 

[Roybot]

Can someone elaborate on this, I am quite dumb when it comes to economics.

Even if exports remain on fire, India likes spending the proceeds on imports more than China does. The result is a modest but stubborn current-account deficit. Relying on capital flows to fund that is not always comfortable. But no one in India wants to fall into China’s trap of giant surpluses that are recycled as loans to weak Western governments.

 

[eiffe]

Little knowledge is dangerous for you, you risk being treated as a fool.


Check the list for top ten exporters, India is at number 5.





Trade deficit is not a metric to measure exports, its a result of exports.

Hi, please provide a source for these data.. 500 billion as exports if true is very huge, considering we are not an export oriented country.. Wooooow

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Can someone elaborate on this, I am quite dumb when it comes to economics.

Basically, India imports more than it exports. The result is a negative trade balance, which means money is leaving India.

America has the largest trade deficit in the world, and it is helping to fuel their national debt to enormous levels. Their current debt is $14 trillion, and their trade deficit is increasing it every year.