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The country has been handed over to IMF Dr Kaisar Bengali

I mentioned the US because political pressure from them gets us waivers from the IMF. Without those waivers we may actually have to do what the IMF tells us. Or fudge the figures. That's an old trick our leaders use :)

Yes the people in charge and the public in general don't care about the economy. I honestly don't know how a country that produces so many commerce graduates can be so disinterested in its economy. The situation is quite horrifying.
Muslims lost Empires after Empires because of being lazy in trade/business etc!!! Resulullah (PBUH) himself led international trade, and some of his top companions were the richest businessmen of their time....
 
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You are missing the entire point.

IMF does not make the demands, but it does expect the government in financial trouble to come up with its plan to correct the structural problems that led to the crisis in the first place. It is up to the government to decide how it plans to carry out the reforms.

IMF only accepts the plan if it is sufficient to correct the problems, that is all, and lists them as the conditionalities that are then monitored for compliance through the agreed upon period of the bailout.



Please see the above. IMF does not come up with the "worst terms", but rather the government as it plans to deal with the reforms needed to get over the crisis. It is Pakistan's government that has proposed these steps, not the IMF.
Read again IMF Conditionality. You are just talking about last stage of structural reform which hardly any government ever did in the past. You are making it very simple as if every Government who contact IMF will get loans without doing any prior-actions needed to approve the payment of loans. Its lender who dictate policy and economic measures not borrower

What are these?

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/470448-imf-programme-folded-into-tough-prior-actions

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/43...to-take-steps-to-achieve-fiscal-consolidation
 
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Muslims lost Empires after Empires because of being lazy in trade/business etc!!! Resulullah (PBUH) himself led international trade, and some of his top companions were the richest businessmen of their time....

Muslims lost empires because Europeans went around Muslim lands
 
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Tough times ahead, but we're preparing for the worst while hoping for the best.

From IMF point of view all their demands are valid. They are giving us money when no other organization is willing to help, all they want is Pakistan to make some positive changes. Unfortunately, previous governments borrowed money but didn’t make any changes.
FBR is same in last 10 years, so far nothing is done to prevent electricity theft, Bureaucracy is out of control, no dams and hospitals were build, children still dieing in Thar.
 
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I am not convinced by this. Critical personnel from SBP and finance dept are being prevented from suggesting a better more careful agreement with the IMF. Pakistan has accepted terms that are at best insensitive and at worst just draconian with no regard to the consequences to Pakistans economy. In fact Pakistan's negotiating team has no ideas of its own has accepted the worst terms IMF can come up with.
IMF now actually runs Pakistan's monetary policy. Other countries in the past who have accepted loans have done so with sensitivity, careful analysis and some give and take. Pakistan is the first country that has accepted the dictated terms with no countervailing ideas or conditions

Finance Ministry’s top official missing from IMF talks

Listen





470294_7264661_Ministry-of-FInance_akhbar.jpg


ISLAMABAD: Some serious questions within the government were raised about the quality of bail-out package being negotiated between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a senior SBP official disclosed to The News that a top finance ministry official is missing from the last three days of these talks.

The State Bank official source, who was present in the Pak-IMF meetings, was surprised that why the key finance ministry official who was part of the negotiating team before was missing when the talks are in the final stage. The SBP source said the finance ministry official opted out of these talks when he was told not to argue with the IMF. The finance ministry official, the source said, was fighting hard with the IMF to get the bail-out package with such conditions which are favorable to Pakistan but he was stopped from arguing Islamabad’s case effectively. The source said the quality of Pak-IMF talks was really pathetic, as Islamabad almost agreed to everything that the IMF wished. According to the source, it was a “complete submission” and a total “sell-out” instead of a “bail-out” package. According to another source, Pakistan has agreed to some really tough conditions of the IMF and now the deal awaits the green light from the Fund’s headquarters in Washington. However, an official on condition of anonymity said that Pakistan was not in a position to have its say, adding that economic condition of the country does not allow Islamabad to bargain much. He said the team negotiating on behalf of Pakistan comprises patriotic Pakistanis who will prefer get the best deal in favour of Pakistan. He said the Pakistani negotiators are experts in their fields and they know how to do things in a better way.

According to media reports, Pakistan and the IMF are negotiating agreement on a fresh bailout package of $6.5 billion in the wake of tough conditions of the Fund on account of taxation, upfront hike in discount rate and withdrawal of subsidies in power sector. They were scheduled to conclude parleys on fresh bailout package till May 10 but both sides after hectic consultations convinced the IMF to extend its stay to next two days for making more efforts to striking a staff level agreement. Media reports say the IMF is asking Islamabad to move ahead with additional tax measures of Rs700 to Rs730 billion in upcoming budget through a combination of both withdrawal of different tax exemptions and raising tax rates. It has also been reported that Pakistan has accepted the IMF’s demands of flexible exchange rate regime, withdrawal of subsidies, containing borrowings from the central bank and reinitiating the privatisation programme. It is said the IMF has also reopened the issue of upfront increase in discount rate by at least 2% despite that the real interest rates were already positive by 3.75%. The other key area was the exchange rate, as the IMF model showed at least 20% further devaluation of rupee against the US dollar.


https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/470294-finance-ministry-s-top-official-missing-from-imf-talks

Amazing. Just Amazing. So all individuals fighting for better terms for Pakistan, were systematically removed. And only pliable ones negotiated the deal. Some anti-US this govt is.
 
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Amazing. Just Amazing. So all individuals fighting for better terms for Pakistan, were systematically removed. And only pliable ones negotiated the deal. Some anti-US this govt is.
why would that happen ?
this looks like a stop gap arrangement to me
 
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Pakistan has agreed to reduce the defence budget according to one economist:

The most alarming thing mentioned in the press release, he said, is that Pakistan government is bound to bring down the primary budget deficit to 0.6 per cent in next budgetary year from over 2 per cent. ‘This simply means that IMF has asked Pakistan to place cut on the defense budget which is not possible as our forces are engaged on both the eastern and the western borders of the country.’

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/470969-clearance-from-fatf-must-for-imf-loan-dr-pasha

We totally bent the knee!
 
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Clearance from FATF must for IMF loan: Dr Pasha

Dr Hafeez Pasha, Pakistan’s one of the distinguished economists and former finance minister, has said that the IMF press release following the staff level agreement on $6 billion loan programme with Pakistan, has indicated that the Executive Board of IMF will approve the loan only after the FATF clears Pakistan from anti-money laundering and terror financing charges.

Speaking his mind over the staff level agreement with IMF, Pasha mentioned a specific reference in the IMF press release, which has asked the government of Pakistan to show commitment against money laundering and terror financing, meaning thereby that FATF clearance is mandatory to qualify for the programme.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is scheduled to be held in Beijing from May 15 to May 17 and will minutely examine Pakistan’s compliance report on total 19 points, including risk assessment to currency smuggling for money-laundering and terror-financing through cash couriers. The executive board of the Fund, where US is the major shareholder of the total fund which is 16.52 per cent and has the voting power of 831,407, will go through the staff level agreement with Pakistan and will give their final nod. The Executive Board will approve the loan after keeping in view the FATF report about Pakistan on money-laundering and terror-financing conditions of the Fund that the government of Pakistan has accepted.

The DNA of IMF is quite different this time from the past as the US, NATO forces and India who are out to use the tools of FATF and IMF to tame Pakistan and more importantly force Pakistan to ensure the smooth exist of US forces from Afghanistan.

Coming to the loan programme of $6 billion that Pakistan will have 39 months from IMF, Dr Pasha argued in the first three months Pakistan will be groping in the dark and will have no tranche after the agreement as the tranches will start after three months provided Pakistan fulfills all the prior actions. He further said it is basically not $6 billion loan, instead it is $3 billion as Pakistan has to pay back to IMF $3 billion loan in next three years. The amount is meager and is not enough to help Pakistan bridge the financing gap. Astonishingly the Fund is not ready to roll over its loan, but it has asked Pakistan in the press release to ask its international development partners to rollover their loans.

Dr Pasha said the IMF has basically asked Pakistan to have commitment from China, Saudi Arabia and UAE to rollover their loans to Pakistan. He said on one hand the IMF is not willing to rollover its loan, but on the other hand it is asking Pakistan to arrange breathing space to cope with the financing gap from the said countries by arranging the rollover.

Dr Pasha said this is one of the prior actions which Pakistan has to complete prior to qualify for approval of loan programme from the Executive Board of IMF. He said China’s loan stands at about $19 billion mainly in project financing and $7 billion are from Chinese commercial banks and $4 billion are parked in the reserves. Saudi Arabia has given Pakistan $3 billion and UAE $2 billion. The Fund wants the rollover of these loans. It is quite strange that IMF is not willing that Pakistan owns the said loan which is against the international norms and practices.

More importantly in the press release, the IMF asked the government to balance the NFC award between federation and provinces which is tantamount to breach of the Constitution of Pakistan. He said after the 18th Amendment the share of provinces in the NFC Award cannot be reduced.

The most alarming thing mentioned in the press release, he said, is that Pakistan government is bound to bring down the primary budget deficit to 0.6 per cent in next budgetary year from over 2 per cent. ‘This simply means that IMF has asked Pakistan to place cut on the defense budget which is not possible as our forces are engaged on both the eastern and the western borders of the country.’

Pasha explained the primary deficit means total revenue less non-interest expenditure. This means that Pakistan will have no option but to place huge cut on defense budget. The IMF wants Pakistan government to ensure the primary budget surplus of 2.5 per cent by reducing the defense budget and keeps central bank away from the exchange rate leaving it to the market forces.

Meanwhile, Arif Habib Limited Research on expected features of IMF programme worked out that in the wake of free float of exchange rate, US dollar will appreciate to Rs147 by June 2019 that will further increase to Rs152 by December this year. This will yield additional devaluation of Pak rupee by 10-13 per cent. The research also said the discount rate from existing level will also increase by 50-75 basis points. And to lower the fiscal deficit, and to ensure the higher revenue, GST will be increased to 18 per cent and a Value Added Tax will be introduced.

Once we went into Fund’s programme, the growth will remain stagnant at 3 per cent, and the middle class will squeezed more and more people will go down below the poverty line.

According to Dr Hafeez Pasha about one million people be unemployed because of slowing down of the economy whereas 4,000,000 people have already gone down the poverty line so far and in next two fiscal years, about 8000,000 more people are feared to go down below the poverty line. During the IMF three years period, the growth will remain at 3 per cent in the next two years and a generation of Rs700 billion through taxation measures in next budgetary year will serve nothing but ruin the economy as people will not pay more when the growth will be at the lowest ebb.
 
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IMF sent an FM - finance overlord to be precise - who wasn’t accountable to the PM even!!! In one instance Merhum Ejevit couldn’t reach him for a couple of weeks!!!

Wow so this is a common tactic they use? They managed to get 3 people replaced in Pakistan. FM, SBP governor and FBR chairman.
 
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Pakistan has agreed to reduce the defence budget according to one economist:



https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/470969-clearance-from-fatf-must-for-imf-loan-dr-pasha

We totally bent the knee!

Army has it’s own companies and they can survive. Also, China can provide unwritten loan to Pakistan Army.
IMHO, Army also has to find ways to cut cost. They spend money like water.
Pak Army need to invest in cyber security and technology. They are functioning like they were in 1990s. they are still using paper files and excels.
 
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Clearance from FATF must for IMF loan: Dr Pasha

Dr Hafeez Pasha, Pakistan’s one of the distinguished economists and former finance minister, has said that the IMF press release following the staff level agreement on $6 billion loan programme with Pakistan, has indicated that the Executive Board of IMF will approve the loan only after the FATF clears Pakistan from anti-money laundering and terror financing charges.

Speaking his mind over the staff level agreement with IMF, Pasha mentioned a specific reference in the IMF press release, which has asked the government of Pakistan to show commitment against money laundering and terror financing, meaning thereby that FATF clearance is mandatory to qualify for the programme.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is scheduled to be held in Beijing from May 15 to May 17 and will minutely examine Pakistan’s compliance report on total 19 points, including risk assessment to currency smuggling for money-laundering and terror-financing through cash couriers. The executive board of the Fund, where US is the major shareholder of the total fund which is 16.52 per cent and has the voting power of 831,407, will go through the staff level agreement with Pakistan and will give their final nod. The Executive Board will approve the loan after keeping in view the FATF report about Pakistan on money-laundering and terror-financing conditions of the Fund that the government of Pakistan has accepted.

The DNA of IMF is quite different this time from the past as the US, NATO forces and India who are out to use the tools of FATF and IMF to tame Pakistan and more importantly force Pakistan to ensure the smooth exist of US forces from Afghanistan.

Coming to the loan programme of $6 billion that Pakistan will have 39 months from IMF, Dr Pasha argued in the first three months Pakistan will be groping in the dark and will have no tranche after the agreement as the tranches will start after three months provided Pakistan fulfills all the prior actions. He further said it is basically not $6 billion loan, instead it is $3 billion as Pakistan has to pay back to IMF $3 billion loan in next three years. The amount is meager and is not enough to help Pakistan bridge the financing gap. Astonishingly the Fund is not ready to roll over its loan, but it has asked Pakistan in the press release to ask its international development partners to rollover their loans.

Dr Pasha said the IMF has basically asked Pakistan to have commitment from China, Saudi Arabia and UAE to rollover their loans to Pakistan. He said on one hand the IMF is not willing to rollover its loan, but on the other hand it is asking Pakistan to arrange breathing space to cope with the financing gap from the said countries by arranging the rollover.

Dr Pasha said this is one of the prior actions which Pakistan has to complete prior to qualify for approval of loan programme from the Executive Board of IMF. He said China’s loan stands at about $19 billion mainly in project financing and $7 billion are from Chinese commercial banks and $4 billion are parked in the reserves. Saudi Arabia has given Pakistan $3 billion and UAE $2 billion. The Fund wants the rollover of these loans. It is quite strange that IMF is not willing that Pakistan owns the said loan which is against the international norms and practices.

More importantly in the press release, the IMF asked the government to balance the NFC award between federation and provinces which is tantamount to breach of the Constitution of Pakistan. He said after the 18th Amendment the share of provinces in the NFC Award cannot be reduced.

The most alarming thing mentioned in the press release, he said, is that Pakistan government is bound to bring down the primary budget deficit to 0.6 per cent in next budgetary year from over 2 per cent. ‘This simply means that IMF has asked Pakistan to place cut on the defense budget which is not possible as our forces are engaged on both the eastern and the western borders of the country.’

Pasha explained the primary deficit means total revenue less non-interest expenditure. This means that Pakistan will have no option but to place huge cut on defense budget. The IMF wants Pakistan government to ensure the primary budget surplus of 2.5 per cent by reducing the defense budget and keeps central bank away from the exchange rate leaving it to the market forces.

Meanwhile, Arif Habib Limited Research on expected features of IMF programme worked out that in the wake of free float of exchange rate, US dollar will appreciate to Rs147 by June 2019 that will further increase to Rs152 by December this year. This will yield additional devaluation of Pak rupee by 10-13 per cent. The research also said the discount rate from existing level will also increase by 50-75 basis points. And to lower the fiscal deficit, and to ensure the higher revenue, GST will be increased to 18 per cent and a Value Added Tax will be introduced.

Once we went into Fund’s programme, the growth will remain stagnant at 3 per cent, and the middle class will squeezed more and more people will go down below the poverty line.

According to Dr Hafeez Pasha about one million people be unemployed because of slowing down of the economy whereas 4,000,000 people have already gone down the poverty line so far and in next two fiscal years, about 8000,000 more people are feared to go down below the poverty line. During the IMF three years period, the growth will remain at 3 per cent in the next two years and a generation of Rs700 billion through taxation measures in next budgetary year will serve nothing but ruin the economy as people will not pay more when the growth will be at the lowest ebb.

Not going to IMF again: We may suffer for 2 years but hopefully if we take the right steps, we will never have to go back to IMF again.

Creating sustainable economy: Creating sustainable economy is not going to be easy, economist will have to think outside the box and come up with creative ideas for investment and to safeguard the existing industries. Chinese should be encouraged to invest in automotive industry and technology. We need massive invest in tourism and IT industry.

Investment from friendly countries: In the past our government cheated Arabs companies by asking them to invest in fake projects. IK has to give them assurance that their money will be protected and they will be able to make money. Create rules across the board for easy of business where local & foreign investors can investment and their money will be protect by the law.

Cut our loses and invest in new technology: We should immediately cut our loses on state run businesses since most of them are losing money.

Innovative ideas: Need to invest in new innovative ideas in agriculture fields by using latest technology and Techniques.
BlockChain and similar system can be used to consolidate DBs. Land and house records has to be all digitalized otherwise non-resident Pakistani will not take the risk. There so many previous cases against land grab and Jali real estate dealers selling same land to multiple person. Bahria town case has created doubt in the mind of investors. Government has to created Law to protect investment. Law has to on the consumer side otherwise forget about real estate investment.
 
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Read again IMF Conditionality. You are just talking about last stage of structural reform which hardly any government ever did in the past. You are making it very simple as if every Government who contact IMF will get loans without doing any prior-actions needed to approve the payment of loans. Its lender who dictate policy and economic measures not borrower

What are these?

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/470448-imf-programme-folded-into-tough-prior-actions

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/43...to-take-steps-to-achieve-fiscal-consolidation

IMF as a lender can establish only the broad guidelines that are well-known, for example to reduce deficit, and balance of payments. The government taking the loan comes up with the plan to achieve the targets, not the IMF. For example, in Pakistan's case, it has decided in the past to cut development spending while maintaining defense expenses due to its security situation. What it has decided this time around is not fully known yet in this aspect.

The hypocritical part is when the government places the blame for any hardship endured by the people on IMF, which is just plain wrong, and done only for political reasons. Always remember that going to the IMF is a choice up to the government to decide, not anyone else. It is the government that puts forward the plan to meet the structural reforms that are necessary, not the IMF.
 
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IMF as a lender can establish only the broad guidelines that are well-known, for example to reduce deficit, and balance of payments. The government taking the loan comes up with the plan to achieve the targets, not the IMF. For example, in Pakistan's case, it has decided in the past to cut development spending while maintaining defense expenses due to its security situation. What it has decided this time around is not fully known yet in this aspect.

The hypocritical part is when the government places the blame for any hardship endured by the people on IMF, which is just plain wrong, and done only for political reasons. Always remember that going to the IMF is a choice up to the government to decide, not anyone else. It is the government that puts forward the plan to meet the structural reforms that are necessary, not the IMF.

blaming outsiders for your own missteps is the oldest trick in the book
 
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