The conflict in Ukraine as seen by a professional soldier

[nangyale]

I have recently come into contact with "Juan" who currently resides near the conflict area in the Ukraine. I don't personally know Juan but I am confident that he/she is a person with a military background and a first-hand knowledge of the Russian military, including elite units. In our email exchanges we soon established that while I was "one of 'them' who was buried under 15 kilometers of concrete, rock and steel" "Juan" was one of the "poor ground pounders had to slog through the mud and slime, rain and snow'. This gave me the idea to ask "Juan" to provide the readers with an analysis of the conflict in the Ukraine written from the point of view of somebody whose career was on the front lines and not, like me, in air-conditioned rooms with fancy computers and communication gear. I sincerely think that this latter perspective is something which is sorely needed and I am delighted to be able to share it with you today.

A big thank you to "Juan" for agreeing to share his views with all of us!

The Saker

The conflict in the Ukraine as seen by a professional solider:

Introduction:

I have been asked by The Saker to share my view of the current conflict in the Ukraine. I will provide no information that is not publicly available if one wants to dig and one is observant with the many videos available on the internet amongst other places. I will give my opinion on the fighting capabilities of Russian soldiers (By Russian Soldiers I mean ethnic Russians and citizens of the Russian Federation serving in the Russian Army. This includes most, but not all, on both sides of the Donbas and Lugansk fighting. It is meant as neither a compliment nor a denigration.) I am apolitical publicly but I will give an opinion in private. I have served. We will leave it at that with the exception of stating while Saker was safely ensconced under more than a few inches of concrete and steel, I was boots in the mud, therefore he and I have a totally different view of events, his world wide, mine what I could see through my weapon sights and not much more.

I will give my assessment of the military situation and forces arrayed against each other in the Donbas and Lugansk Oblasts but first I will say a little something about War. War is not a nice vocation, it is not a nice event. War is almost always, operative term being almost, a result of failed diplomacy. War is in essence an extension of diplomacy and as such is almost always political one way or another. Politics be damned, to us who have been to war, to us who have fought, actually fought, we hate war more than anyone. For those of you who have not been to war, and don't mean those of you who have served in one way or another in your army, but those of you who never picked up your weapon and went nose to nose with the proclaimed enemy, fought him and won, you have no idea what it is like. You see the videos, you see the AAR's (After Action Reviews, the synopsis of what went right and want went wrong and why.), you read the endless pontifications of the talking heads in the news media and the politicians, but you have never seen real War unless you have stood and fought, watched your enemy fall, watched your comrades fall, seen the toll on civilians, walked the field after a battle, seen the destruction, smelled the smells, heard the sounds, felt the fear (We are always afraid before combat. It is our training and experience that allows us to hide the fear from our comrades and the younger men in the unit.). No, unless you have stood in the line you don't know War.

For most of you War is an abstract happening, something to talk about, to play video games about, to laugh and joke about in the cafe or bar after work, to urge one side or the other to attack, fight, do something. If you only knew the reality of combat you would never even whisper the word 'war', you would hang your politicians from the nearest lamp post at the first beat of the war drums. We are soldiers. You ask us to do this and we do this for you. In the West we are as likely to be spit upon as thanked. When the war clouds gather you scream for us to help you, to save you. In Russia we are honored, welcomed home, thanked for what we did. Yes, we who have been to war, who have stood in the line and fought, we hate war. We also understand more than most that there times, much as we hate it, that one must fight. In my opinion this is one of those times when men have to fight for Donbas and Lugansk.

One more thing before I turn to the topic at hand: If you want to understand Russia, Russians and Russian culture you must start by studying Byzantium, it's history, culture, politics and religion. Russia and ethnic Russians are the inheritor of this culture and religion lock, stock and barrel, and study of Byzantium explains a very great deal about Russia and Russians and points you in the direction of further studies.

 

[nangyale]

The context
The events in Kiev starting in very late November and going on to today. The current government in Kiev came to power by way of a coup d'etat in late February of this year. Shortly after that coup the citizens of Crimea and Sevastopol felt threatened by the new government and seized power in Crimea and Sevastopol. Shortly after seizing power the citizens asked Russia for help and protection. Russian responded with alacrity and within a few days Russian forces landed in and around Kerch from Novorossiysk. The assistance to Crimea was a bloodless accomplishment but in the event all the Ukrainian Army, Navy and Air Force based in Crimea were surrounded and cut off. Many immediately surrendered and the soldiers and sailors were offered the choice of repatriation to Ukraine with their families or to join the Russian Federation Armed Forces. Roughly 80% of the soldiers and sailors, both officers and rankers, opted to join the Russian Armed Forces. This tells a great deal about the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For 23 years the various Ukrainian governments had treated the armed forces budgets as a cash cow to be milked to oblivion. The soldiers and sailors for the most part in Crimea, and in reality of all Ukraine, were poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly fed and many of the lower ranks had not been paid since November. Their armored vehicles, equipment, weapons and ships were a disgrace. At least 8 of the Ukraine Navy ships were refused repatriation by Kiev and are in the bone yard at Inkerman being cut up for scrap as I write or scheduled to be towed there shortly. Some tanks, BTR's and BMP's had not moved for literally years and had to be towed to the rail heads for repatriation to Ukraine. Of the 39 aircraft at Belbek Air Base 4 were airworthy. The others could not fly and some had been cannibalized to keep the 4 serviceable aircraft flying.
After Crimea voted to become part of the Russian Federation and were accepted in the Federation, several regions in the east of Ukraine became dissatisfied with the new government in Kiev and started to demand more autonomy from Kiev, in other words they wanted to elect their own leaders and administration heads and do away with the Kiev appointed heads of same as was the practice for 20 odd years. Kiev refused and Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast then seized their local governments, ousted most of the appointed department heads and declared themselves independent. Kiev promptly sent units of the Ukraine Army to quell the unrest and most of the units refused to fight their fellow countrymen and in some cases changed sides and turned their armored vehicles over to the new Donbas Republic's armed forces. This is to be expected in an army where most of the lower ranks are conscripts, in for a year or two and then gone. The main fallacy of the Ukraine Armed Forces is they do not have a professional non commissioned officer corp, in other words sergeants, as a general rule. In the basic infantry units the sergeants are generally a conscript who has a bit more education or other attributes that set him a slight cut above the average conscript. He is selected and usually but not always sent to a short 'sergeant school', returns to his assigned unit and is then out when his conscription term is over. Sergeants are the backbone of a modern army and have been for well over 100 years. They are the 'shop supervisors' so to speak and translate the officer's orders in to words and actions the troops understand and perform. Without professional and long service sergeants the junior and senior lieutenants have to do the sergeant's work in addition to their own work. This adversely affects the work of the lieutenants and often results in their captains doing some of the lieutenant's work, which in turn adversely affects the captains work.

Basic weapons
The basic infantry weapon in the Ukraine Army is the AK 47 and it's later derivative the AK 74.

The AK 47 is an old design but reliable to an extreme. The weapon was designed as an automatic rifle for a very large conscript army and is quite simple and inexpensive to manufacture. It is easy and simple to field strip and maintain and it generally is not affected by the dirt and debris present on all battlefields. I have no idea how many rounds of ball and blank I have fired from one but it is certainly in the many thousands in both training and operations and I have never had that weapon fail to operate reliably nor have I had a single instance of the weapon jamming and failing to fire.

I have also seen many other varieties of rifles and automatic hand held weapons, most notable being in one video an SKS semi automatic rifle was seen dating from, if my memory is correct, right after the second world war, a PPSh41 of World War 2 fame, short, stubby and with a round drum magazine attached to the bottom of the weapon and basically a lead hose that is not much use at ranges over 200m if that, and a Maxim machine gun on a metal two wheeled hand pulled carriage probably dating from the first world war. I did not see any ammunition for the Maxim so it may have been just for show. The first two I have seen in the hands of both the Federalists and the Kiev troops.

Both the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use the Automat Kalashnikov in it's many variants, both the 47 and the 74.

The medium machine guns generally seen in the Donbas and Lugansk area are mostly of the PK variety. The PK went in service in the early 1960's and and is still standard issue today. The weapon was designed by Mikhail Kalashnikov of AK fame. It is a reliable and simple machine, easy to use, clean and maintain and quite robust. It feeds from the right side using either open belted ammunition or boxed belts, the box attached to the bottom of the weapon receiver housing. The weapon fires the standard Russian round of 7.62 x 54 size, ever so slightly longer than the NATO round of the same caliber. Cyclic rate is between 700 and 800 rounds per minute and range is optimistically listed at 100 to 1500 meters. The weapon fires from the 'open bolt' system. When you release the trigger the weapon fires the round in the chamber and the bolt locks open rather than staying closed as on the AK variants. This it to facilitate belt changes when milliseconds count. The weapon is usually seen with a bipod attached to the front of the barrel but is also capable of being used on a tripod.

When listing the cyclic rate of an automatic weapon, in particular a machine gun, while the instruction sheet tells you that for instance the weapon will deliver up to 800 rounds per minute, the gunner does not want to fire that many rounds in one minute. The normal gunners rate of fire is in 3 to 6 round bursts. The only time you will hear sustained firing of a machine gun is generally when there is either a massive target of opportunity or if the bad guys are close enough to see the whites of their eyes. To fire a sustained burst of 800 rounds in one minute will lead to rapid barrel erosion and overheating and may well jam the weapon. This can put you in a decidedly awkward situation when the bad guys hear the weapon go silent.

Again, both the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use this weapon in several variants.

 

[nangyale]

Tactics and morale
I have watched as much as time allows the videos and read both news reports and reports from other sources about the situation in the two oblasts. I will neither give the Kiev regime advice by publicly telling what I think they are doing wrong tactically nor will I reveal all I see that the Federalists are doing correctly beyond what is publicly available via news or the internet.
The coup government in Kiev was taken aback when some of the first Ukraine Army units arrived in Donbas and promptly refused to fight. Not only did they refuse to fight but some units went over to the Federalist side bringing with them their weapons and BMP light armored tracked fighting vehicles. These events were a tremendous psychological and morale boost for the Federalists. The young soldiers and their officers had been told they would be fighting 'terrorists' and 'separatists' and they were shocked when in the villages they passed through or near the local citizens, dozens of them, came unarmed and physically blocked the light armored units advancing in the direction of Slavyansk with their very bodies. After sometimes extended negotiations the units would either go over the the Federalists or simply turn around and return to their base or lager. In some instances this return to lager move had fatal consequences for some of the soldiers as they were executed by Right Sector operatives that very day. These executions were a mild variant on the old French philosophy of 'we'll execute a few soldiers for the encouragement of the others'. Reality is all armies have done this from time to time, either openly or, as the saying goes, 'accidents happen'.
The reluctance to fight their visibly unarmed fellow citizens who were obviously not terrorists and insisted to the boys that they were not separatists but simply wanted more autonomy and had no intention of leaving Ukraine was a turning point in the Donbas situation. I don't know what the coup government expected but obviously they have precisely zero experience in motivating soldiers and in tactics and strategy.
Some Ukraine Army units have fought, albeit not too well from what I know. Will the remains of the Ukraine Army fight in what is to be the final push tomorrow and Saturday? I do not know the answer to that question. Only time will tell.
Now, the 'national guard'. These units are almost exclusively right sector, the 'victors' of maidan. They have had some of the best advisors money can buy, all supplied from The West. Some of them have been trained in musketry in their extensive system of training camps in the west of Ukraine but most do not have any real military training or experience. Those who signed up for the 'national guard' units were given a crash course in 'soldier 101' lasting two weeks at best and generally less, uniformed after a fashion, armed and sent east. Will they fight? I don't know. I do know they are quite good at appearing in towns and villages suddenly and in numbers, heavily armed but never have I personally seen or heard of them actually fighting in a stand up fight. They seem to be pretty good at spreading terror amongst unarmed citizens and not much else. Most of them are highly motivated and believe in what they are doing. It remains to be seen how well they will fight when their adversaries are shooting back. They do have some numbers on their side.
The overall situation with the Ukraine Army is everything they have is now in the East. They have large numbers of BMP and BTR light armored infantry carriers and fighting vehicles. They have brought just about every tank they have that will run and some of them, while aging platforms, have been extensively upgraded and modernized with the latest night vision devices and weapon sights and quite good reactive armor packages. Most of the serviceable artillery, both towed and self propelled
Air assets are thin. When the Ukrainians first began to use their Mi24 attack helicopters, which is an excellent close support, anti personnel and anti vehicle weapon, they lost several in two days. Ukraine also has several Sukhoi ground attack aircraft and some, (actual number serviceable unknown) Migs of various types. The comment of air assets being 'thin' is a bit misguiding in that the Federalists have no air assets.The Federalists do have at least a few shoulder fired anti aircraft missiles and that is what brought down the 5 known destroyed Mi24 helicopters.
Tactics on the part of the Ukriane Army have been poor. While few if any of the actual Ukraine Army units have attacked the Federalists, the Mi24 choppers do seem to be piloted by airmen who will, indeed, attack. I have watched a slow but steady incremental increase of types of attacks and weapons used by the 'national guard' units attacking the Federalists. On 17 May the first mortar shells were fired, just a few and of 82 mm caliber, fired at a Fed blocking post. Kiev nervously looked over their shoulders at the Russian Army glowering at them from across the border, saw no repercussions to the first mortar bombardment, and decided to up the ante the next day, 18 May. That day the first 12 cm mortars were used in addition to the 82 mm mortars of the day before. Also that day the first patently civilian targets were hit and one single 12 cm howitzer shell was fired. Again, no reaction from Russia.
By 20 May, with no visible reaction from Russia concerning the increasing use of heavy weapons against both civilian targets and the Federalist positions, Ukraine began to systematically bombard targets of their choosing. The number of patently civilian casualties from 15 May to 23 May numbers over 50, some dead, most wounded.
On 22 May the first overt attack by 'national guard' units against a Ukraine Army unit that refused to attack civilians occurred near Volnovakha. The tactics used by the national guard were interesting but almost standard for them of late. They arrived at the Ukraine Army lager outside the village in lime green vans and at least one white van, announced they were 'friends' and then started shooting at the Ukraine Army soldiers. While they managed to kill and wound most of the Army unit some did survive and most, after the initial surprise, fought back with spirit. Casualties in the Army unit seem to be in excess of 60 dead and wounded, on the national guard unit not as many but more than a few.After the fighting stopped and the wounded from both sides were removed, two Mi24 attack helicopters identified as 'national guard' helicopters, attacked the area and destroyed most of the trucks, ambulances and BMP's of the Ukraine Army unit and the damaged national guard vans left in place. An entire Ukraine Army armored company was thus destroyed by 'national guard' units for refusing what in reality was an illegal order, attack an unarmed village full of civilians.
This incident alone will have very serious repercussions for the Kiev government, although the international community is dead silent about the killings. It shows that if you do not do what the Kiev government tells you to do you will be killed. Every unit in the entire Ukraine Army knew of this incident within an hour of it's happening. This will adversely affect the morale and combat effectiveness of the Ukraine Army from top to bottom. It is very possible that some Ukraine units may either attack 'national guard' units or simply change sides. That remains to be seen, but it is a fact that soldiers can not be made to attack with weapons pointed at their backs from the rear. They will be just as likely to turn on the enforcers as they are to attack the perceived 'enemy'. There are already, as of 08:15 local time on 23 May, unconfirmed but reliable reports of two Ukraine Army units going over to the Federalist side.
On the Federalist side, tactics have been developed ad hoc using the available units and soldiers. They have several advantages in that most are local boys and they know the surrounding areas like the backs of their hands, having grown up there. After seizing several weapons storages in both Donetsk and Lugansk Oblast the Federalists are now reasonably well armed and supplied with ordinance including anti air missiles and anti tank weapons, antitank being both missiles and RPG's plus a few old but as new condition antitank rifles which have no trouble ventilating any BTR or BMP.
It is obvious from their tactics that they hold no area that they are willing to fight to the last man for at this moment that has been aggressed by the Kiev forces. From what I have seen on the scattered but continuous attacks on their 'blocking posts' they will generally withdraw at the first sign of national guard presence in attack mode, sit back and wait. The national guard unit will then take the post, do the obligatory 'burn the barricade' drill, take what food is lying around and leave. The Feds then return, rebuild the barricade, sit back and have lunch. The Feds have lost men in these raids but the losses have been low.
The Federalists do often attack national guard units and the one Ukraine Army unit that does seem willing to fight. The national guard units, being generally on the defensive de facto, are in the position of having to defend a large area and lack the manpower required to do that. The Nats (I will do a name change now, or a shortening of names. The Federalists will be known as the Feds, the national guard and their allies will be known as the Nats) do have many strong positions in some areas that the Feds are smart enough to not attack. However, from readily available information it is obvious that the Feds do attack and/or ambush Nat units often. They use the classic tactic of having a local preponderance of force or, as the Confederate General P. G. T. Beauregard said 150 years ago, 'I got there fustus with the mostus', in other words local superiority at the moment. Local superiority does not necessarily mean superior numbers, it can, and often does, mean local surprise and instant domination of the battle area by fire. The Feds do this drill by day or night.
These tactics seem to be working, at least for now. The Nats casualties for the last month are well in excess of 600 dead and a like number of wounded, wounded meaning anyone who is hurt one way or another badly enough to be off duty for a time to full blown intensive care. For the Feds casualties are not reliably known but have not been anywhere near the numbers of Nat casualties. Civilian casualties, there are no reliable numbers for, but from reliable sources do run over 200 dead and wounded in the last month in the two oblasti.
If the Kiev regime manages to attack throughout the entire area at one time they will probably win this campaign as they seem to be perfectly willing to accept civilian and military casualties and damage that would not be looked well upon if known or reported by national and international news media. The Feds are seriously, read vastly, outnumbered and woefully under equipped. The Feds have but a very few BMP light armored vehicles and a few captured BTR vehicles, almost no artillery and zero air assets. They do have excellent morale and do believe strongly in their cause.
Strategically, I don't know. I'm not bad at tactics, being just a lowly veteran sergeant, but from what I see Kiev is in the position of having to attack and attack strongly on 23 and 24 May. Their masters are adamant that they solve 'this problem' before the election scheduled for 25 May. I have no doubts that at least some, not all but some, a goodly number of 'some', of the Federalists will fight to the end to hold their very few strategic locations.In reality they have no other option, either fight to the death or be killed afterwards. Is Kiev and their international backers and masters willing to do the massive fighting this will entail in civilian areas and with the very large civilian casualties this act will entail? I think so. Will Russia intervene? I don't know and conjecture is useless on whatever actions Russia may or may not take.
Only time will tell how this unfolding tragedy will end, but my thoughts are that Ukraine as it was last October is dead and gone, never to arise again as we knew it.

(To be continued)

 

[nangyale]

A lot has happened since I wrote the last items. The situation in the south and east of Ukraine is quite fluid and changes by the hour.

Early on 24 May 2014 strong movements of Nats units began, converging on the city of Slavyansk and it's outlying towns and villages.

One armor battalion of the Nats Army moved at speed to the east from their lager some distance away from Slavyansk. This was an 'all arms' movement, the tank companies consisting of upgraded main battle tanks and including at least one Oplot upgraded T80 known as T84,the usual variants of BMP tracked light armored vehicles and BTR troop carriers, many soft skin vehicles (trucks, fuel bowsers, support vehicles amongst others) and the usual large numbers of troop filled trucks. Accompanying this unit was a battery of Msta self propelled howitzers of 15.2 cm main gun size, the howitzer being in a rotating and lightly armored turret built on an older main battle tank chassis. Also in the train was at least one battery of Grad missile launchers.

This unit stopped on the outskirts of Slavyansk on 24 May and stood down for most of 25 May.

Numerous other Nats units, some armored and some not, also moved on 24 May to positions close to Slavyansk and the outlying areas. Most of these units appear to be national guard/right sector units.

Morale:

For the Nats national guard/right sector units, morale appears to be the same, most quite motivated, a few not. However, they have yet to prove they can stand and fight. This mode, 'stand and fight', is the essence of combat and always has been. If the Nats right sector units will not stand and fight then they are useless in any campaign and will only pursue their penchant for terror aimed at unarmed civilians with the resultant anger on the part of the civilians.

Many of the right sector units are composed mainly of young men, many veterans of the brawling in Kiev during the maidan debacle but few with military experience. It is quite one thing to stand against highly trained but unarmed police and Berkut units (unarmed meaning no weapons beyond short truncheons and shields) and rather a different experience to fight armed units who have every intention of killing you.

The consist of a combat unit is of the utmost importance when going in to combat. As I explained earlier the Nats army does not have a professional NCO corp nor does it have the tradition of such a corp and as such there are few if any combat experienced sergeants to train and guide these totally inexperienced and poorly trained young men as they enter in to the world of War. Mentioning this failure on the part of the Nats Army and right sector units does not violate my policy of not giving them ideas to improve their units and tactics. It takes years to form, train and deploy such a cadre and in this instance they do not have the time nor the will to do so.

I have seen many videos of these young men joyfully riding around on various vehicles, laughing and smiling. I have also seen these same young men in videos as they rolled in to a set piece ambush, I've seen the look of surprise turn to horror to realization they are going to die in seconds. And die they did, shot down by the people who intended to kill them in the beaten zone.

It remains to be seen how these losses, and there has been more than a few of these incidents, will affect the overall morale of right sector units. The losses to right sector have been quite large. The losses are kept secret as much as possible, however the total losses in KIA are approaching 900, possibly more, in the last 3 weeks alone. Wounded are reported to be half of that. Many of the wounded and dead are reported to be evacuated to Kharkov in a clandestine manner and treated at close facilities. We'll leave it at that, although anyone willing to dig a little can find what and where this event happens and how. I will say this about losses, though. It is an established fact that for most units in a combat situation, either actually fighting or in lagers preparing to fight, that 10% or so of your losses are self inflicted one way or another. Accidents do happen, especially when you have a bunch of young men running around with all kinds of dangerous little items that go 'bump' in the night so to speak. Relatively inexperienced drivers piloting large and cumbersome vehicles do hit things, misjudge curves and embankments and roll the vehicle, weapons not treated with the utmost respect do have a nasty habit of discharging at an inopportune moment. Thus 'non combat' casualties are generated with surprising regularity and the dead are just as dead as if they were killed in combat. As an aside, I have always beaten in to my men, either those I was training or those I was serving with, rank didn't matter, that there is no such thing as an 'unloaded weapon'. Period.

Nats Regular Army units are still to an extent an unknown entity as far as morale goes. The entire army knew of the right sector attack on the Ukraine Army unit of 22 May. Since that time there have been more reports, some confirmed, of Ukraine Army units going over to the Federalist side. There have also been two reports, one patently confirmed, of Ukraine Army units that planned to either stand down or switch sides and were promptly slaughtered by right sector, the confirmed one involving 28 soldiers killed.

The tank battalion looked good and looked motivated when they were in transit. However, they have not seen combat yet. The Feds have no tanks and no air assets so any combat with tanks on the Fed side will mean someone has to do something unkind to the tanks on the ground, up close and personal. This takes experience and courage. Can the Feds do it? Yes. Will the Nats get their act together on how to use armor? That is unknown and only time will tell and I'm certainly not going to give them the slightest idea how.

Before I go in to the Federalist side morale, I first want to put to rest a phrase often heard in both media reports and civilian conversations. Late me state this once and only once. There is no such thing as a 'bullet proof vest'. Period. The phrases used by the military are 'ballistic armor', 'body armor' and an older phrase of 'flak vest'. This vest and accompanying accouterments do offer some protection against rounds and shrapnel but are in no way 'bullet proof', they are 'bullet resistant'. The material works by dissipating the kenetic energy of an impacting object by spreading the force of the impact through the fabric around the impact sight. Some vests are far better than others depending on the development level of the manufacturer and the standards of the manufacturing contract. I know of none that will stop a modern high energy round fired from a modern rifle at less than 75 meters. Anyone who has information on the latest and greatest of these vests, feel free to correct me. These vests will normally not stop a pointed weapon, read bayonet, when used directly at the vest. However, many years ago when I was in advanced training my grizzled old Sergeant, who had fought on both the East and West Fronts during The War, made it very clear to me what would happen if he ever saw me use the bayonet when I had rounds left in my automat. I have never forgotten his graphic description, told in clinical detail, the gentlest part involving how many teeth one needs to chew a piece of bread (two are needed, according to him the rest are redundant).

75 meters you say with raised eyebrows? Yes. Look around you. Go out in the woods and look, see how far you have visuals. Go in to a town or city and look. How far can you see when huddled against a building or an alley or in a doorway? Most modern combat is at ranges of less than 50 meters unless you are on the wide open steppes or plains or desert. In built up areas this goes down to even less in house to house fighting, read up close and personal. Now, how to get around this problem will not be revealed in this writing and you know why.
Federalists.

Morale is generally quite high. They have been reinforced of late with some experienced volunteers, most notably yesterday in Donetsk City seen publicly when the Vostok Battalion arrived to the cheers and tears of the populace. I have also heard various accents in Russian, most notably the soft, almost Southern Drawl of the Chechnyans.

The Feds will fight and seem to be quite well trained, witness the losses they have inflicted on the right sector units and the very few Nats units that have attacked them at close range.

The problem for the Feds is the Nats have stand off arty up to and including the aforementioned Msta 152 cm howitzers and they have tanks, real tanks, on the edge of the combat areas now. As an aside, a 'tank' is not every vehicle with either tracks or wheels that has a turret and a weapon in said turret. A 'tank' refers to a 'Main Battle Tank', a heavily armored and armed vehicle with tracks and a rotating turret with a good sized piece of artillery in said turret. The Feds have no tanks to my knowledge but, reality being reality, I would not tell you if they did and I knew. They do have a very few BTR and BMP units, lightly armored and armed either fighting vehicles or troop transports.

I have seen quite modern anti tank weapons in possession of the Fed troops plus the usual RPG systems of various models. They also have surface to air hand held missiles to discourage the Mi24 attacks, which they have, and these weapons are also useful against the Sukhoi ground attack aircraft Kiev is known to possess and which have been used once on Saturday.

However, the Fed morale again seems to by very high. They will fight as they have often already. How will they stand against an all out attack by the Nats forces? That is a question I can not answer. Is Kiev willing to destroy towns and cities to achieve their ends with the resultant very high civilian casualties? I think so. Today and tomorrow may well tell the tale. What are the Fed armed forces numbers? Even if I had that number, which I don't, I would certainly not divulge it. Better to keep your enemy guessing, in other words Operational Security. Always try to keep your enemy as ill informed about you as possible. Let him wonder and worry and be afraid of the dark.

All this being said, I have no doubts the Feds will fight to the last man. They really have no choice if it comes to an all out assault by the Nats. They either fight and defeat the Nats or fight and die standing rather than kneeling in subservience to a government that is both illegal and detested.

Will Russia intervene in the event of a blood bath? That is an unknown but I personally do not think they will.

Fighting going on at Donetsk airport since shortly after 03 today. This morning, reports are a full Rota (company, ergo 200 men if at full strength) of Kiev 'Army' are in the terminal. 4 choppers and 2 aircraft are in the area and there has been bombing. The main terminal is on fire hard in one wing.

A fly on the wall says there is a 'high value target' with the Rota of Nats troops there, to wit, an American in command. That would possibly explain their 'stand and fight' deal. Either that or there was a landing scheduled of Nats troops at airport to attack Donetsk from within. Airport is on the north west edge of Donetsk City with major roads to it and around it.

Two attempts have been made to 'get someone out', once by chopper that landed and immediately took off under fire with two others in support, no one got to the bird. An hour later 4 ambulances went at high speed to the main terminal but evactuated no one and did not leave. Possibly the ambulances contained reinforcements for one side or the other or their task was to get the target out and were not successful.

 

[nangyale]

Update: Tuesday May 27 2014

Tanks are on the move west of Slavyansk, destination unknown, at least a Rota (Company, ergo 16 tanks if at full strength, which is doubtful. Normally any serving tank Rota will be at 75% max at any given time as tanks are under repair, and normally 60%. Under combat conditions it is 50% or less.) with accompanying support units such as BTR's and BMP's plus infantry. Unit unknown.
Unconfirmed information states that one platoon of tanks (Platoon is 4 tanks) lost their way and managed to drive in to a swamp. Two were so deep in water and mud the diesels hydraulicked.
At roughly 18:20 local time a bombardment was made on a residential district in Slavyansk lasting for 20 minutes. One building of flats took 3 direct hits. Casualties are unknown.

 

[nangyale]

• Heavy bombardment at night and early morning in Rubezhnoye in Lugansk Oblast. Civilian casualties unknown.
• More scattered fighting and probes around Slavyansk last night and this morning.
• Donetsk residents are actively assisting the Fed units in building barricades on city streets and setting up fighting positions.
• Reports of more fighting in the Donetsk Airport area last night and dawn this morning.
• Terminal at Donetsk Airport heavily damaged in the fighting Monday.
• Probes in scattered areas around Lugansk City. No reports of results or casualties, civilian or military.
• Situation in Mariupol is unknown.
• Email yesterday 23:07 local time from Donetsk Oblast, simple and terse: 'We are at war. Pray for us.' No word since as of 09:12 local time.

 

[nangyale]

Update May 28 2014

• Residential areas of Slavyansk shelled by mortars and artillery starting at 11:00 local time.
• School #13 in Slavyansk was hit by a 12.2 cm mortar shell. School is also used as a kindergarten. 9 civilians injured including a 4 year old boy. Unknown if the casualties were at the school or in other areas under bombardment.
• Very strong fighting commenced approximately 15:30 local time in the area of Donetsk Airport but not at airport. Airport terminal is heavily damaged from fighting on Monday. Fighting is ongoing as of 17:00 local time.
• Artillery bombardment in town of Rubezhnoye in Lugansk Oblast. Casualties unknown. Reliable sources say there are no Lugansk Self Defense forces in or near the town.
• ZU-23-2 antiaircraft gun system seen in public video in possession of Donbas Army.

 

[nangyale]

Update May 30, 2014

1. Sporadic and heavy at times fighting around Slavyansk and the outlying villages on 29 May with no notable successes for the Nats Army and national guard units. Some losses reported for the national guard units.

2. A half battery of Grad missile launchers, BM-21, is in position within range of Mariupol. As of this morning that unit has not fired. Range of Grad missile is up to 35 kilometers.

3. A half battery of Grad missile launchers is in position within range of Slavyansk.

4. I have no positive verification of a Grad missile attack on Slavyansk. This does not mean an attack did not occur. Something very large and multiple did hit the outskirts of an outlying village but I have no source at the impact spots to verify what the impacts were.

5. Sources report that the Donbas Army action at Donetsk Airport was a trap involving proposed negotiations with certain Ukraine Army units under the auspices of a western organization in Donetsk at that time. Sources report that shortly after the negotiations started the Ukraine Army sent in by air strong reinforcements to their unit in airport as the Ukraine Army units in airport attacked the Donbas Army unit.

6. The transport of the Donbas Army wounded in convoy out of the airport area late Monday evening was arranged as a truce to succor the wounded. The two Kamaz transport trucks were each flying a red cross flag and a white flag of truce. They drove in to an ambush set up by right sector/national guard units. The drivers of both trucks were killed. One truck overturned after striking a curb. The other truck was hit by an RPG round. The surviving wounded were killed by right sector on the spot. As the wounded were being killed the two flags were removed from each truck by right sector operatives.

7. Partisan activity has started 3 days ago in Kharkov Oblast around Kharkov City among other areas targeting national guard/right sector units. 29 May losses to two national guard/right sector units were heavy in ambushes.

8. Vostok Battalion 29 May started an operation around Donetsk Administration Building of the Donbas Republic to stop looting by certain Donbas Army members after strong complaints from citizens. Metro supermarket near the airport was heavily looted by Donbas Army members as were several other shops and stores and much of the loot was stored in 3 tents in the area of Donbas Administration Building, one tent having the contents and perpetrators shown on video. Reports are 7 looters were arrested and are awaiting trial. Reports from Ukraine and west media that the looters were shot are false.

9. After the anti looting operation was completed Vostok Battalion had the square in front of Donbas Administration Building cleared of the barricades to provide access for citizens to the facility and to facilitate easier defense of the area in the event of a Ukraine attack.

10. Civilian casualties in Donbas are mounting with the random artillery attacks by units of the Ukraine Army and national guard/right sector. 29 May saw 8 civilians killed in Donbas and a like number of wounded. Some of these casualties were caused by air burst antipersonnel rounds fired from howitzers of the Ukraine Army. Targets are living areas with flats buildings with no visible Donbas Army units in the areas.

12. Families of mobilized Ukraine Army reservists held a large demonstration in Kiev at the Ukraine Parliament Building demanding the return of their husbands and sons. By Ukraine law reservists can not be mobilized for more than 45 days without a declaration of war against another sovereign state by Ukraine. This declaration of war has not been made. Kiev has ordered the mobilization extended indefinitely.

13. One of the two Ukrainian helicopters shot down on 29 May was carrying the commanding general of the 'national guard' who was also 'the commander of field operations for national guard units'.

14. Ukraine has rejected the offer of humanitarian aid from Russian Federation for the two Oblasti of Donetsk and Lugansk.

15. An attempt on 29 May to evacuate children from certain areas of Slavyansk was unsuccessful. Ukraine Army units blockading the city refused passage to the buses carrying the children.

16. A refugee processing center has been set up in the Federal City of Sevastopol of the Russian Federation to aid in the settlement of refugees arriving from areas of fighting in Ukraine. Several hundred refugees have arrived in Sevastopol as of 17:00 29 May and are being housed and fed in the city. A like number are being succored in Simferopol, the capitol of the Autonomous Republic of Krimea of the Russian Federation. A processing center is schedule to be set up 30 May in Simferopol to help the refugees. More refugees are expected in both cities. A like facility for refugees will be set up in the eastern Krimea city of Kerch if needed.

 

[nangyale]

Update 03 June, 2014

• No sleep from 05:00 02.06. Please excuse spelling mistakes.
• During a protest near Lviv in west Ukraine by women demanding the return of their conscripted sons and husbands the women were beaten by Tyagnibok's Svoboda Party operatives. Two women are in hospital.
• Artillery fire commenced against the town of Severodonetsk 04:20 local time.
• Slavyansk and Kramatorsk heavy fighting resumed dawn today. 3 enemy BTR's destroyed before dawn 03 June 2014 Kramatorsk area. Casualties unknown.
• Lugansk fighting and artillery bombardments started dawn in outskirts. One flats building hit by artillery and on fire. Casualties unknown.
• 27 children including some milk babies were successfully evacuated from Kromatorsk after dark 01 June. Destination unknown.
• Intense fighting around Kramotorsk Aerodrome from dawn today. The distinctive sound of a German MG3 was clearly heard. This weapon is known to be in Nats armories in small numbers and some rechambered for Russian 7.62 x 54 round from NATO 7.62 x 51 round. High cyclic rate of fire.
• Ukraine Army is blocking all traffic in and out of Donetsk City and Slavyansk. No medical supplies are allowed in to either area. The prohibition of evacuating children from both cities is still in effect by Junta. Sick and severely wounded evacuation is prohibited.
• Reports of very heavy fighting suburbs of Slavyansk 08:10 local time. Reports of tank cannon fire in the area of fighting are unconfirmed. Tank cannon have a distinctive sound different from artillery of the same caliber.
• 09:29 local time column of tanks and BTR's have fought their way in to Slavyansk with right sector infantry. Very intense fighting extant in actual city.

 

[nangyale]

Combat SITREP 05 June, 2014

• Красный Лиман Krasni Liman was taken by Ukraine Army and national guard 04 June 2014.
• Replacement Mi24 attack helicopters have arrived in Ukraine as replacements for the Ukraine Army losses in Donbas. Confirmed.
• Strong bombardments of Slavyansk City and outlying towns and villages commenced 05:00 local time 05.06.2014. Civilian casualties unknown.
• National guard/right sector entered Railroad Hospital Krasni Liman and shot dead 37 wounded Donbas Army soldiers and civilians and at least 1 hospital worker. Confirmed.
• Air and artillery bombardments Krasni Liman cause strong civilian casualties 04.06.2014.
• List of dead air attack on Lugansk Administration Building:

• Kostjukov Vladimir Andreyevich , 1971 (regional administration)
• Corn Inna (regional administration)
• Giza Alexander (regional administration)
• Unidentified woman
• Dolzenko Nina 1955 (regional administration)
• Polezhaev Sergey 1964 (regional administration)
• Natalia Arkhipova (regional administration)
• Cerkez Galina 1967 (regional administration)

• There are Confirmed reports of national guard/right sector randomly shooting civilians in Krasni Liman and searching residences.
• Border Guard Headquarters and one military base taken by Donbas Army 04.06.2014. Large amounts of weapons and ammunition captured in both bases. Border Guard HQ prisoners allowed to change to civilian clothes and leave base. Prisoners from military base unknown if allowed to leave after surrender.
• Name, rank and unit of Ukraine pilot SU25 who attacked Lugansk Administration Building is now known. Complete conversation of pilot with control before, during and after attack recorded by Donbas Army.

 

[nangyale]

Update 06 June 2014

1. There are many reports about a lot movement by Nats forces around Slavyansk.

2. Semenovka is under continuous bombardment since 07:00 06.06.2014. Vast areas are destroyed. Grad missiles are used but not in salvo. 15.2 cm howitzers and 12.2 cm mortars plus heavy field guns and tank cannon.

3. Lugansk City proper is under air attack 18:05 06.06.2014. At least 2 Su25 aircraft attacked living areas. Casualties unknown.

4. Nats An 30b surveillance aircraft shot down 06.06.2014 18:45 local time. First 2 vids. Сводки от Стрелкова Игоря Ивановича's Videos | 145 videos | VK

5. Slavyansk water supply system hit by Nats arty. Water supply to most of city cut off.

6. Slavyansk electric supply system hit by Nats Arty. Electricity is off for most of city as of 14:00 06.06.2014.

7. Krasni Liman. All males ages 18-40 being arrested by right sector. Those arrested are being taken out of town. Fates unknown. Photos. Militsiya (police) car with right sector.

8. 2 strong armor columns moving toward Slavyansk. Numerous tanks and supporting troops.

9. 3 cm anti aircraft guns are shooting down in to Slavyansk City from overlooking hills. Living areas and shops are targeted.

10. An agreement was reaching with Nats Army CO Slavyansk area to evactuate two columns of buses with children and young mothers. First column left city using designated route and was fired upon by right sector units. Casualties, if any, are unknown. Second column left by a different route. No communication with either column since 16:14 06.06.2014.

11. Donbas Army has made appeal for qualified tankists and pilots.

12. Reports of heavy fighting developing outskirts of Slavyansk City proper 18:45 local Ukraine time.

14. Personal conversation by phone mid day today with an individual living near Krasni Liman. Individual states that right sector is looting shops, confiscating cars, trucks and buses. A few civilian men shot dead in local streets. Some young women have been outraged. Person says no food allowed in to their living area location and that adults and children are eating porridge made from stored cattle food using water from local stream. Porridge is not cooked, barley soaked in water until soft, eaten cold. Water and electricity is cut off. Right sector is going door to door checking documents and confiscating computers and cell phones. If no one answers door, right sector breaks the door down. If anyone inside they are beaten and sometimes shot. Citizens with Russian passports are arrested and taken away. Fate unknown. I could hear screams and shouts in the phone from not too far away through the cell phone. The individual hanged up the phone in mid sentence. I did not call back for fear of endangering the person.

 

[nangyale]

Battlefield Update 08 June 2014

1. Confirmed view of live stream Grad missile battery firing in salvos at the outskirts Slavyansk in the early morning of 08.08.2014

2. Reports of Russian armored columns crossing in to Novorossiya at dawn of 08.06.2014 are incorrect.

3. Strong bombardment of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk still going on. Ukrainian tanks firing in to living areas of both cities as part of this bombardment.

4. Civilian casualties are reported from on going artillery attack on Slavyansk, 15.2 cm howitzer and 12.2 cm mortar in use as well as lighter field guns and aircraft.

5. Reports of 1944 IS 152 renovated by Novorossiya Army are false.

6. Heavy fighting going on in villages on the outskirts of Slavyansk

08.45 08.06.14.

7. Novorossiya army attacked national guard/right sector units guard post near canal. Strong fighting going on as of 11:15 08.06.14.

8. Reports of Ukranian army military park taken over by Novorossiya Army on the of night 07-08 June 2014. Couldn't be confirmed by onsight inspection.

9. On sight report Grad missile battery fires on Slavyansk from Kramachuk Mountain. Confirmed.

10. Strong armor column stopped outside Lugansk City. No activity from column as of 9:47 08.06.14.

 

[nangyale]

Update 11 June 2014

1. Nats Army offer of civilian evacuation corridors rejected. Corridors led only west in to national guard/right sector unit areas and demanded self defense units disarm and surrender.

2. Continuing heavy bombardment of Slavyansk and outlying areas. Confirmed 4 children under age 10 killed last 3 days. Living areas and industry areas targeted including 15.2 cm howitzers and Grad.

3. краснолиманскому area confirmed 2 Grad units destroyed with crews and support vehicles 09 June 03:00 attack of Novorossiya Army units.

4. Nats suffer heavy losses last 4 days. Nats removing destroyed vehicles and armor when possible. Reason unknown. Ural tank transporters used for removal. One photo destroyed/burned T64 turret in transporter. T64 hull not seen.

5. Strong explosion and short fire area Karachun Mountains 03:15 11 June.

6. Unconfirmed reports of large number bodies found in deep lake краснолиманскому area, bodies weighted.

7. Large amount of ammunition found on two abandoned Kamaz transports Lugansk area. Numbers of Kamaz Nats army.

8. Unconfirmed reports 10 June, large number of national guard/right sector troops surrounded in Lugansk aerodrome.

9. 07:12 11 June heavy fighting area краснолиманскому.

10. Additional unverified but deemed reliable reports of replacement aircraft and crew sent to Nats Army from Poland and FRG.

11. Refugees continue to arrive Rostov Oblast and Autonomous Republic of Krimea. One group of 4 families detained on arrival by van. Suspicions of 22 year old husbands with 8 year old children and all documents Ukraine new. Children being cared for.

12. Scattered engagements in areas around Slavyansk and Kramatorsk growing in intensity 06:15 11 June.

13. Report of secretary general of OSCE to visit Rostov na Donu to interview refugees. Suggestion a visit to Slavyansk and краснолиманскому.

 

[Ra'ad]

Thanks for sharing! Love you.

 

[nangyale]

Update 13 June, 2014

1. Fighting central Mariupol near Novorossiya command post. Increasing in intensity 06:15 13 June.

2. Minimum 3 main battle tanks Nats Army outside Lugansk captured by Novorossiya Army and are now in use of their new owners.

3. White Phosphor artillery shells used to bombard several villages around Slavyansk and Slavyansk City late evening and night. Fires raging in one village and Slavyansk City.

4. Unconfirmed but deemed reliable sources indicate chemical weapons and/or biological weapons to be used in Peoples Republic of Donetsk against civilian and Novorossiya Army targets coupled with simultaneous high casualty attacks against civilian targets in central and west Ukraine. Unconfirmed but reliable reports state Ambassador J. Pyatt of USA knows of this plan. Operations are scheduled for 3 to 5 days from 12 June 2014. Novorossiya Army is to be implicated in this chemical and terror attacks.

5. Strong Nats armor column advancing on Lugansk City has been stopped on the outskirts by local self defense units. Several Nats tanks and BTR's destroyed in fighting.

6. Civilian dead from bombardments Slavyansk area on the night of 12 June are including at least 2 children.

7. Refugees crossing Krimea and Rostov borders increasing. Combined numbers approaching 25,000. RF is housing all refugees asking help. Many refugee stay with relatives in RF and are not included in this total.

8. Reports of two Mi24 and one SU25 shot down Lugansk area on 12 June. No photos of impact sight, so unconfirmed.

9. OSCE head Lamberto Zannier visits refugees near Rostov na Danu 12 June, says situation 'distressing'.

10. Small bus evacuating children from Slavyansk fired on by right sector 21:00 12 June. 2 children one adult wounded. Bus clearly marked with white flag and sign in windows 'children'. Children returned to Slavyansk.

11. Report of fresh mass grave found near Krasni Lehmahn containing bodies of young men, unconfirmed by photo evidence.

12. Heavy fighting Mariupol 07:45 13 June, two block posts central city. DAI blocking roads, telling civilians to stay in. Fighting shown live by Spilno TV team.