The Coming Global Recession

[laman12345]

OK. You are Einstein reborn ! You can read graphs !

pay me money I teach you. no rupee rofl

 

[ZABASHO]

IndoCarib you are a joke


India GDP sharply falling in 2011

actually you are joke too

Its India's GDP growth rate thats fallen in 2011-2012.

would like to see how other countries have performed the past year, perhaps none faced a slowdown

 

[laman12345]

actually you are joke too

Its India's GDP growth rate thats fallen in 2011-2012.

would like to see how other countries have performed the past year, perhaps none faced a slowdown

Jan - March 2012 GDP

Indonesia GDP = 6.3%
India GDP = 5.3%

 

[ZABASHO]

Indonesia GDP 4Q = 6.5%
India GDP 4Q = 5.3%

whats so funny?

 

[Ignited Mind]

Sharp Slowdown in Asia Sounds Ominous Warning


Slowdown in Asia Manufacturing Activity Sounds Warning - WSJ.com

Slowdown worsens as China cools, Europe sinks


Slowdown worsens as China cools, Europe sinks

 

[RFS_Br]

The problem isn't Europe alone -- the whole world economy was overleveraged, with Western growth overly dependant on financial activities instead of real production.

And neither is it something that can be solved with policy changes alone. Perhaps by abandoning austerity Europe can improve its economic situation, specially that of its weakest members. But what kind of policy can address the fact that many European economies were growing on consumption bubbles (Spain, Ireland) and unsustainable public spending (Portugal, Greece)? Or yet the fact that the healthiest economies in the region (Sweden, Germany) were growing on exports to those over-consuming countries, and thus are vulnerable to their downturns?

This crisis is only the latest avatar of the systemic crises that have been shaking the capitalist world for hundreds of years. The Great Depression is one example of them. Those crisis are inherent to this economic system and I don't think they're something that can be avoided by means of political decisions alone.

 

[Barrack-Obummer]

The problem isn't Europe alone -- the whole world economy was overleveraged, with Western growth overly dependant on financial activities instead of real production.

And neither is it something that can be solved with policy changes alone. Perhaps by abandoning austerity Europe can improve its economic situation, specially that of its weakest members, but I don't see what kind of policy can address the fact that many European economies were growing on consumption bubbles (Spain, Ireland) and unsustainable public spending (Portugal, Greece) -- and also the fact that many of the healthiest economies on the region (Sweden, Germany) were growing on exports to those over-consuming countries.

This crisis is only the latest avatar of the systemic crises (the Great Depression being the most recent prececessor) that time and again shake the capitalist world. I don't think it is something that can be avoided by means of political decisions alone.

Very well said.

One things for sure, its going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[Developereo]

What GErmany should do is [...] try to weaken Nato while establishing an EU military block.

There seems to be increasing rancor at the street level between Greece and Germany. Most Greeks want to remain in EU but blame German banks for their problems, while many Germans are getting tired of the Greeks' resistance to live within their means.

 

[rashtriya.rifles]

OK. You are Einstein reborn ! You can read graphs !

Don't reply to that disgusting troll.... U can gauge his level from the fact that he opened a thread about the living std of Delhi based on yesterday's temp.

Even hongWu will jump from his bed looking at this guy's outrageous posts

 

[IndoCarib]

After a very rough day for the Indian economy, which, it was revealed on Thursday, grew just 5.3 per cent in the quarter ending in March, Friday showed a glimmer of hope. Manufacturing in the subcontinent in May continued to grow at a steady pace, despite slowing slightly from the previous month.

According to PMI figures released by HSBC and Markit on Friday, India fell in May to 54.8, down slightly from 54.9 in April, well above the 50 benchmark that separates growth from contraction, on the back of faster growth in output, stocks of purchases, and employment.


India: PMI gives a glimmer of hope | beyondbrics

 

[Ignited Mind]

The Breakeven Point (Wonkish But Terrifying)


A number of us have been saying for some time that the euro crisis is, at its root, a balance of payments problem. During the careless years, capital flooded from the core to the periphery, leading to big trade deficits and overvalued real exchange rates; now, all that needs to be reversed. Yet “internal devaluation” via deflation in southern Europe is basically impossible; if this is going to have any chance of working, we need a real devaluation in Spain mainly via German inflation rather than Spanish deflation. 4 percent German inflation plus zero in Spain might work; 2 and minus 2 can’t.

And this in turn means that overall eurozone inflation must be sufficiently high. That’s a necessary but not sufficient condition for salvation; not sufficient because a banking crisis can still blow the thing apart, but necessary because you can’t resolve the banking crisis unless there’s some plausible path back to sustainable economies.

One indicator I like to look at is the German “breakeven” — the difference between the interest rate on ordinary German bonds and on bonds indexed to inflation (which it turns out means overall eurozone inflation). This is an implicit market forecast of the inflation rates, and I’ve been arguing for a long time that it really needs to be above 2 for there to be real hope.

So what’s happening? Oh, boy:

I’m not sure this really means that investors expect only 0.7 percent inflation over the next 5 years; it’s probably also reflecting a collapse of liquidity, which drives down prices in the relatively thin markets for index bonds (which happened after Lehman too). But that’s just another kind of disaster.

This chart shows a euro on the verge of imploding. If the ECB can’t change this perception very, very soon — and I think it really is up to them — this goose is cooked.

The Breakeven Point (Wonkish But Terrifying) - NYTimes.com

 

[Ignited Mind]

Brazil’s economy: spluttering



High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. Brazil’s economy: spluttering | beyondbrics

A big disappointment from Brazil’s statistics agency on Friday: GDP growth came in far below expectations in the first quarter at 0.8 per cent year on year and just 0.2 per cent over the previous quarter.

The figures will set alarm bells ringing in Brasília, where the government has been doing all it can to kick start the flagging economy.
Analysts had expected much more. A survey of 11 economists by Valor Econômico, a Brazilian business daily, gave a consensus of 0.55 per cent for quarter on quarter growth, in a range of 0.5 to 0.8 per cent. Bloomberg surveyed 50 economists who delivered a consensus of 0.5 per cent q/q.

down by a sharp fall in agricultural output of -7.3 per cent q/q. But there was not much to cheer about elsewhere. The services sector grew 0.6 per cent q/q. Industry (1.7 per cent), family consumption (1 per cent) and government consumption (1.5 per cent) were all weak.

The government has tried various forms of stimulus to get local industry going again. Its biggest effort has been in trying to re-inflate demand driven by consumer credit, which has been flagging after a boom as consumers struggle to service their debts.
But will it work? Valor Econômico has an analysis piece on Friday saying credit alone will not be enough. Demand for credit, it says, is refusing to take off (our translation):

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. Brazil’s economy: spluttering | beyondbrics

And one of the reasons is a change in the pattern of consumption, especially among the middle classes, who have begun to spend part of their incomes on intangible or non-financiable goods: mobile telephony, internet, pay TV, private schools and holidays. And on building up a financial reserve.

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. Brazil’s economy: spluttering | beyondbrics

There is a huge irony in that last line. One of Brazil’s biggest problems is a very low level of domestic savings. Now, it seems, cash-strapped consumers are beginning to understand the value of having something tucked away – just as the government would like them to go on a splurge.

Brazil’s economy: spluttering | beyondbrics

 

[rashtriya.rifles]

replace B with P in BRICS ..

 

[S10]

World War III might be an option to jump start the world economy. It worked for World War II.

 

[Developereo]

replace B with P in BRICS ..

CRISP. Sounds good to me!