The Burning South: India-Pakistan conflict in 2026 - A hypothetical scenario simulated. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TROLLING OR JINGOISM

[FuturePAF]

@SQ8
@PanzerKiel
@surya kiran
@MilSpec
@Signalian
@Desert Fox 1

Gentlemen,

I am compelled by Clio to take you to a very dark period, and beg to be forgiven for that, for the way back to normal times is not known to me.

He Who Must Not Be Named, that four-letter word that leads a crazed segment of hominidae, has been re-elected. Convention demands that he retire, but he is anxious to hang on to his modest life-style, his role in world affairs, and to the feeling of power that he relishes.

It is the year 2024, and professionals employed to watch what is going on in India have found, in newspaper reports, in social media dominated by shrill bhakts, and in magazine articles and TV programme references, that a substantial civil engineering programme has been initiated in the country. As time passes, certain more details are available. Large military bases are being built, supplementing earlier constructions, at the following locations:

1. Jammu
2. Pathankot
3. Amritsar
4. Moga
5. Bathinda
6. Sirsa
7. Jodhpur
8. Jaisalmer
9. Barmer
10. Ahmedabad
11. Bhuj
12. Pune

It is not clear what they will house, but there is apparently planned to be accommodation for 20,000 to 25,000 families at each location. Particularly large are locations at Pathankot, Moga, Bathinda, Jodhpur and Ahmedabad.

Sounds like a scenario where he who must jot be named is building bases for his own personal SA/SS troopers.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Joe---that is an extremely interesting scenario.

Ukraine crisis is showing that unless you don't have the air superiority of the USAF, a larger military can be pummeled into submission and crushed.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Sounds like a scenario where he who must jot be named is building bases for his own personal SA/SS troopers.

That is the tour of duty concept. Let us see what happens to it.

The base building is highly overdue. The Indian Army has had to do acrobatics of various kinds to get troops from Ambala and Meerut into action, or, for that matter, troops from Dehra Dun, Allahabad, Sagar and Jhansi.

These bases are needed and are overdue.

Hi,

Joe---that is an extremely interesting scenario.

Ukraine crisis is showing that unless you don't have the air superiority of the USAF, a larger military can be pummeled into submission and crushed.

You are right.

The capability of ground troops is limited by the easily available anti-tank weapons now available. The PA, for instance, has invested heavily both in weaponry and in formations to use that weaponry. Any attack on the PA is suicidal without an air superiority that does not exist.

There is, however, a flip side to it. Better not to go into that.

 

[satyamev]

kyun dara rahe ho bacho ko idhar ?
India has never initiated unnecessary adventures in the subcontinent and i dont see that changing.
The 2 limited initiatives i can recall are -
BD in 71 but that was also precipitated by the million refugees creating social issues in India.
And the ipkf , which was a stupid decision in hindsight to be a neutral force , in a hostile environment. Where both parties hated you.

 

[Joe Shearer]

kyun dara rahe ho bacho ko idhar ?
India has never initiated unnecessary adventures in the subcontinent and i dont see that changing.
The 2 limited initiatives i can recall are -
BD in 71 but that was also precipitated by the million refugees creating social issues in India.
And the ipkf , which was a stupid decision in hindsight to be a neutral force , in a hostile environment. Where both parties hated you.

Tell me, what is aggressive about building and construction? What is aggressive about moving from one location to another? Hamarahi zameen par idhar udhar chalne se doosron ko kya pharak parta?

As of now, where is the aggression? Yeh to trailer hai.

 

[satyamev]

Tell me, what is aggressive about building and construction? What is aggressive about moving from one location to another? Hamarahi zameen par idhar udhar chalne se doosron ko kya pharak parta?

As of now, where is the aggression? Yeh to trailer hai.

i feel if gen Bajwa continues, India and Pakistan might enter into a long period of detente.
The reason why India is looking at reducing numbers in the armed forces.
China is the imponderable because their sense of importance and tendency to take actions unsoiled by principles , is very high.

 

[Joe Shearer]

From a digest prepared by an independent observer, this is the Indian Army order of battle - more or less - as on March 31 2026. One or two units positions and roles are still in doubt.

Command	Corps and initial location	Divisions and initial location	Brigades and initial location	Notes and comments
Western Command
	II Corps – PATIALA			ARMOURED STRIKE CORPS
		1st Armoured Division, Moga		Armoured Division = Armoured Brigade x 2 + Infantry Brigade x 2
		31st Armoured Division, Moga		Armoured Division = Armoured Brigade x 2 + Infantry Brigade x 2
		40th Artillery Division, Moga
			6TH (I) ARMOURED BRIGADE MOGA	Corps Reserve
	IX Mechanised Infantry Corps – Yol			MECHANISED INFANTRY STRIKE CORPS
		12TH RAPID UDHAMPUR		Armoured Brigade + Mechanised Infantry Brigade x 2
Artillery Brigade
		36TH RAPID NAGROTA		Armoured Brigade + Mechanised Infantry Brigade x 2
Artillery Brigade
		4TH RAPID JAMMU		Armoured Brigade + Mechanised Infantry Brigade x 2
Artillery Brigade
		18TH RAPID SAMBA		Armoured Brigade + Mechanised Infantry Brigade x 2
Artillery Brigade
			2nd (I) Armoured Brigade Mamun (Pathankot)	Corps Reserve
			16th (I) Armoured Brigade Mamun (Pathankot)	Corps Reserve
			3rd (I) Armoured Brigade Ratnuchak	Corps Reserve
	XI Corps – Jalandhar*
		7th Infantry Division, Firozpur
		15th Infantry Division,Amritsar
			23rd Armoured Brigade, Amritsar
			55th Mechanised Infantry Brigade, Beas
South –Western Command
	X Corps – Bhatinda*
		33rd Armoured Division, Hissar
		24 RAPID - BATHINDA
		42ND ARTILLERY DIVISION - Bathinda
			14th (I) Armoured Brigade Bathinda	Add Infantry Brigade, Artillery Brigade: Form RAPID+
			4 (I) Armoured Brigade - Bathinda
Southern Command:
	XXI Corps - Bhopal
		54 Infantry Division PUNE (RAMFOR)
	XII Corps - Jodhpur
		11 Infantry Division - Ahmedabad
			85th Infantry Brigade
			31st Infantry Brigade
			330th Infantry Brigade
			11th Artillery Brigade
		22nd Infantry Division Jodhpur
		9th Infantry Division Jodhpur
			75 (I) Infantry Brigade- Bhuj
		29th Infantry Division - Jodhpur
		16th Infantry Division Barmer

i feel if gen Bajwa continues, India and Pakistan might enter into a long period of detente.
The reason why India is looking at reducing numbers in the armed forces.
China is the imponderable because their sense of importance and tendency to take actions unsoiled by principles , is very high.

You are absolutely right. However, this is a simulation, and there is no harm in running it.

There are implications in what you have just said, that could have incredible repercussions - good ones - for both India and Pakistan. While we hope for peace, there is every reason not to slacken our defences, or, for that matter, for the Pakistanis to slacken their defences, and there is every reason to be friendly but wary. Pakistan is not planning to dissolve her army soon; downsize it, keeping in mind that there is counter-insurgency to be done that is non-trivial, up-gun it, and make sure that a smaller force gets all the good things to be better soldiers, improve the intake and improve the training, and live happily with smaller pension outlays, smaller retirement benefits, and lesser strain on the nerves of the decision-makers to achieve budgets.

I hope that makes sense.

 

[Joe Shearer]

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #16
March 21, 2026.

TRAC has contracted for the supply of 350 Griffon Hovercraft type 8100 TD. 100 will be supplied by Griffon completely assembled and ready to run in six months' time, another 100 will be supplied in SKD condition to be assembled by their Indian collaborators, Bharat Forge Ltd., the next 100 will be supplied in CKD condition to be assembled by BFL, and all subsequent supply will be by production in country by BFL.

It is learnt that each hovercraft can carry 75 troopers, and a 100 will therefore be able to transport 7,500 troopers, a battalion's complement, at 35 kmph over uneven ground and over water.

All india , pakistan , conflicts will have same scenario ,

Pakistan will try to hold india , despite the professionalism of its airmen and bravery of its infantry men , indian conventional superiority will start to overwhelm Pakistani defences in a matter of time , International community will mediate , cease fire will happen.

Of course.

This scenario explores a different set of objectives; the sequence of events is likely to be what you have succinctly outlined.

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #17
March 29, 2026.

There are suggestions appearing in news reports, in social media and in references to the matter in the speeches of decision makers that an agreement is on the verge of being signed for the supply of 200 Grippen single engine jet fighters to the Indian Air Force. There is no confirmation of these stories from our usual sources.

 

[Signalian]

Tell me, what is aggressive about building and construction? What is aggressive about moving from one location to another? Hamarahi zameen par idhar udhar chalne se doosron ko kya pharak parta?

As of now, where is the aggression? Yeh to trailer hai.

All this movement is by road or there is constant aviation and airforce cargo support side by side ?

What is expected Pak and China reaction to this movement once seen through satellite and other intel sources ?

 

[Joe Shearer]

All this movement is by road or there is constant aviation and airforce cargo support side by side ?

Mainly by rail; most troop movements in India take place by rail, as there is a robust rail system in place, and our bases are weirdly placed with respect to the borders. There is also, of late, an increased proportion of air-lift involved, obviously on a selective basis. One can't generalise but a certain number of families might get air transport, civilian as well as military. Bulk of it is by rail, however.

The road movements come in for relatively short distance; for instance, Suratgarh to Bhatinda, or Ambala to Moga.

What is expected Pak and China reaction to this movement once seen through satellite and other intel sources ?

The trouble in a simulation exercise of this sort (not yet started, but I hope you will extrapolate) is that one person cannot speak in two voices. If there was a player or a team opposite, I would expect them to react, almost violently. I can't dictate that, however, without landing up playing left-hand vs. right-hand chess.

Why don't you suggest reactions, at least for the PA?

The intelligence summaries are supposed to hint at the information being conveyed to the highest decision-making levels, that would presumably then call for more detail. Here I am forced to leave it at that.

Above all, please note that this is intended to alert the PA that something is going on, that it is something very major that is going on, and that it is something that must be responded to. Not so much the PLA; it doesn't affect them except strategically.

Finally, the simulation will start once Indian troops and formations are in motion, and actually attack. Until then, all this is scene-setting.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Hi,

Joe---that is an extremely interesting scenario.

Ukraine crisis is showing that unless you don't have the air superiority of the USAF, a larger military can be pummeled into submission and crushed.

There are several objectives in doing this.

First, to disprove the platitude that the only objective of India-Pakistan disputes can be capture of maximal territory;
Second, to show that mind-games are as important in war as in sports, even more important, in fact, and that it should be played consciously;
Third, to explore the options left other than air superiority, if there are any real options of that sort.

Now, the formations are in place (almost; can't say out loudly without compromising plans, the special building programme is over, the special equipment has been purchased/ is being purchased, air power, sadly, will not change, and we will go into battle inadequately serviced. That means there has to be innovation to make up for lost advantage.

 

[SQ8]

@Joe Shearer what I do suggest that even with new procurement you are looking at 2025 onwards to lets say 2028 which is 3 years in and not really a long timeframe. Those impacts will be significant but not overly game changing keeping the desi productivity model and not Rosie the Riveter.

So any large orders placed will likely not be even 20% fulfilled by 3-7 years depending upon the type. Why I suggest that is because that will also play on both sides.
So be it a follow up order for Rafale’s or Gripens, unless they are placed today you wont see them being churned out if by 2029 in those numbers.

But, intelligence reports are intelligence reports.
I do like the idea of playing head to head and letting the sim decide.
So if @surya kiran finds time, and maybe even @MilSpec if he isn’t too sour about all of us and trusts my(and the computer’s) neutrality then maybe @Signalian , @JamD ,@Bilal Khan (Quwa) , @Desert Fox 1 can plan Pakistan’s moves and maybe @PanzerKiel can add a little bit of finesse at the end.

At the end, I am only suggesting what I think is a fun activity based on common interests, using something we cannot say is “biased” and gives a different reason to log onto PDF than the current dumpster fire of emotions(including our own) regarding the country outside of this.
Call it grown men trying to play “Risk” online.

All I request from the others is that if you have nothing other than sourpuss comments to add, stay our or I will ensure you do.

There are several objectives in doing this.

First, to disprove the platitude that the only objective of India-Pakistan disputes can be capture of maximal territory;
Second, to show that mind-games are as important in war as in sports, even more important, in fact, and that it should be played consciously;
Third, to explore the options left other than air superiority, if there are any real options of that sort.

Now, the formations are in place (almost; can't say out loudly without compromising plans, the special building programme is over, the special equipment has been purchased/ is being purchased, air power, sadly, will not change, and we will go into battle inadequately serviced. That means there has to be innovation to make up for lost advantage.

P.S you could also PM me the exact positions and we could let the Pakistanis do the same. Both sides post only intelligence reports and then we start the different moves for the Sim to really surprise the other?
Would be a bit of hassle but dang if it goes the way I imagine my 16 year old self playing strategy video games would be giddy.

 

[Joe Shearer]

@Joe Shearer what I do suggest that even with new procurement you are looking at 2025 onwards to lets say 2028 which is 3 years in and not really a long timeframe. Those impacts will be significant but not overly game changing keeping the desi productivity model and not Rosie the Riveter.

So any large orders placed will likely not be even 20% fulfilled by 3-7 years depending upon the type. Why I suggest that is because that will also play on both sides.
So be it a follow up order for Rafale’s or Gripens, unless they are placed today you wont see them being churned out if by 2029 in those numbers.

I had no hope of the Gripens arriving on time to make a difference; the Swedes don't have the production capacity even if they wanted to stop everything else and give it all up to the IAF. An honest approach demands that the simulation be done only with what is immediately available.

The 105 mm field guns are irrelevant; they are ready for procurement tomorrow, along with a mountain of ammunition, about three to four months' worth of war-time consumption; they are not of any consequence here and now.

The critical component - here my homework has not been good enough, because what is needed is not one brand, not one supplier, but sufficient capacity to transport a division each out of two locations. This is critical because of a complex of reasons.

You have already spotted the importance - the psychological impact - of 'intelligence reports', and you may have noticed the agitation of others as well, that being precisely what was hoped to happen.

But, intelligence reports are intelligence reports.
I do like the idea of playing head to head and letting the sim decide.
So if @surya kiran finds time, and maybe even @MilSpec if he isn’t too sour about all of us and trusts my(and the computer’s) neutrality then maybe @Signalian , @JamD ,@Bilal Khan (Quwa) , @Desert Fox 1 can plan Pakistan’s moves and maybe @PanzerKiel can add a little bit of finesse at the end.

Sounds like a plan! I really wish someone would get involved in my support. Let me reach out to @meghdut

At the end, I am only suggesting what I think is a fun activity based on common interests, using something we cannot say is “biased” and gives a different reason to log onto PDF than the current dumpster fire of emotions(including our own) regarding the country outside of this.
Call it grown men trying to play “Risk” online.

Thank the Blue Sky above that you thought of this!

 

[Joe Shearer]

P.S you could also PM me the exact positions and we could let the Pakistanis do the same. Both sides post only intelligence reports and then we start the different moves for the Sim to really surprise the other?
Would be a bit of hassle but dang if it goes the way I imagine my 16 year old self playing strategy video games would be giddy.

This would be SUPER! We need 'judges' who will adjudicate actions taken and their consequences. This bit about intelligence reports and actual steps is beyond exciting; adds a bite of real-world flavour to it.

 

[SQ8]

I had no hope of the Gripens arriving on time to make a difference; the Swedes don't have the production capacity even if they wanted to stop everything else and give it all up to the IAF. An honest approach demands that the simulation be done only with what is immediately available.

The 105 mm field guns are irrelevant; they are ready for procurement tomorrow, along with a mountain of ammunition, about three to four months' worth of war-time consumption; they are not of any consequence here and now.

The critical component - here my homework has not been good enough, because what is needed is not one brand, not one supplier, but sufficient capacity to transport a division each out of two locations. This is critical because of a complex of reasons.

You have already spotted the importance - the psychological impact - of 'intelligence reports', and you may have noticed the agitation of others as well, that being precisely what was hoped to happen.

What I do request (and we can create group PMs later) is that I be guided clearly on numbers and positions for the moves especially for the land warfare side.
Ill repeat again, there is no “oh god, I have to be nice to this guy and take time on this” situation. Hence if you recall I said the 5 lines thing. But lets put a cutoff date, this is Ramadan and my own productivity is flip flopping but lets say if we decide to complete the scene setting by 4/15 including what units/facilities to place where, how many, and what will units do?
E.g opening salvo of OCA/ interdiction and ASW ops by Bhuj, Naliya and Jamnagar based assets in combination with Brahmos(or maybe not) strikes on “known” PAF, PA and PN targets. With IN P-8s on sub hunt patrols and so on.

Even more interesting - we agree that facilities known to public knowledge (MOBs and clear FOBs, major HQs , bases and known radar locations) are “exchanged” but other facilities placed are known to their respective sides only to be discovered by recce overflights(sat passes included) or recon teams and Then can be added to the knowledge of the opposing team.

Sure, Im making this overly complex maybe .. but when one gets to pretend play a little realism I do enjoy it.

From that point onwards, we can set the next scene- the next moves and so on.


Once again, ALL are invited to join in if they wish to have fun and I can make a bigger PM group for Indians/ Pakistanis and maybe designated judges. But only if you agree to keep it as realistic as possible and not go into jingoistic or ballistic arcs about either launching nukes or phone calls.

Finally - I will still undertake this if its just myself either way.. maybe slower(Ive been trying my version of this scenario out for a while with mixed “success” in terms of getting units to do what I want them to do)