The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.

[BlueWhales]

“Incidents of 1971 cannot be forgotten. The pain will remain forever,” BSS quoted Hasina as telling the Pakistani envoy.

Pakistani envoy meets Bangladeshi PM in sign of warming ties

Pakistani High Commissioner Imran Ahmed Siddiqui meets Sheikh Hasina as they pledge to improve bilateral relations.

www.aljazeera.com

Bengalis are not only Indian Puppet, Their country is useless for Pakistan..
They share Indian border but are Indian Puppet too..
So, Totally ignore Bengalis & Bangladesh..

 

[Jobless Jack]

Points well taken ! That is the ground reality of the situation in Bangladesh.
There is the existing defense treaty.
India could still formally ask for Bangladesh's participation in a conflict and Bangladesh's refusal or a stance of neutrality, would be viewed as a violation of the treaty and a hostile act.

Will draw a close parallel to a situation, concerning India, Pakistan, and the now defunct Soviet Union.
The treaty between Bangladesh and India is closely modeled on a very similar treaty between the Soviet Union and India signed shortly before the Indian involvement in the Civil War that led to the independence of Bangladesh.
India invoked the treaty with the Soviet Union seeking support, to deter the intervention of the USA on the side of Pakistan in Bangladesh, The Soviet Union did offer total diplomatic (UN veto) , and military support including the mobilization of its own naval assets.
The tables were turned in 1979-80 when the Soviet Union planned to invade Afghanistan. The Soviets well knew that controlling Afghanistan, without controlling Pakistan was an impossibility. The Soviet Union was distracted with a NATO build up in Europe, and a Chinese build up on it's borders. The Soviet Union knew that it would not be possible to deploy enough forces to quickly overrun Pakistan, though a punishing air offensive could be maintained to temporarily deter Pakistani support to the Afghan resistance.
Getting India into the act was vital. Pakistan would not survive a simultaneous Indian and Soviet invasion. Pakistan had no nuclear weapons then and the Soviet Union was fully prepared to use all it's assets.
The Soviet Union called upon the Indian government headed by Morarji Desai under the terms of the treaty to consider initiating action on Pakistan's eastern border.
Morarji Desai was a pacifist and "Gandhian " and he refused. Had Indira Gandhi been in power with Natwar Singh as foreign minister there was a distinct chance of an anti-Pakistan coalition possibly involving Bangladesh as well ( because the Treaty could have had a chain effect). Morarji Desai declined, and even though his government was toppled due to internal political conflict ( which the Soviet Union helped!), his successor Charan Singh maintained the neutrality. The Soviet Union went ahead with the invasion carrying out air strikes on refugee camps along the Pakistan Afghan border but not directly attacking Pakistan's military assets.,The Soviet Union initially enjoyed complete air superiority and because of initial military successes in stopping the Afghan Mujahideen the Soviets did not view India's betrayal that seriously. They preferred to wait till a more Soviet friendly government was in power in India.

Indira Gandhi was voted back to power in 1981 but got too heavily involved in a Sikh insurgency in Punjab to risk a war with Pakistan.,
The rest is known...

India is unlikely to make the same mistake as the Soviet Union and will invoke the treaty ; assuming there is an unfriendly government in power in Bangladesh. A very remote possibility given the complete dominance of politicians in India's "pocket" and control of Bangladesh's mass media.
As for the young generation.
Very few in Bangladesh's new generation have a balanced view of Pakistan or even know much about the country.

Its not so much about view

As i said 71 is a sensitive topic. But pakistan today does not impact anyone in BD in anyway other than what BD media portays. However indian policies play a direct impact on the people of BD. Get it? Who will YOU hate more? The boogey man the media plays on your face or the one who is literally exploiting you day in day out? Majority hates the awami league and India is a known supporter of awami league . who would you hate more, someone who slapped you today or someone who slapped you 50 years ago? Which hate will influwnce your desicision?

Assuming there is a Treaty, that treaty will be null and void, if BD military gets sufficient diplomatic protection from china, that pak enjoys or atleast close to that. As we talk things are going that way, do you think the chinese invested 30 billion in BD so that BD can play india's poodle? Or let the indians destroy that investment?

And anyway what will army do to support india?Unlike pakistan, in BD if the ordinary people are pissed of at govt or anyone, the uniformed force wont be able to protect that entity, regardless of who they are . there is videos on youtube if you search, of mob beating up army men. That should tell you something.

the way i see it, the best way forward is when a govt comes in BD that will realy extend the hand of friendship and cooperation to pak. Pak should work with that govt, an apology for 71' from pak will smoothen the process and disarm the oppositions in BD for such co operation.

however pak should not apoligise to awami league as that will only strengthen their image and will give them a diplomatic victory while pak gains nothing.

 

[Bambi]

Points well taken ! That is the ground reality of the situation in Bangladesh.
There is the existing defense treaty.
India could still formally ask for Bangladesh's participation in a conflict and Bangladesh's refusal or a stance of neutrality, would be viewed as a violation of the treaty and a hostile act.

Will draw a close parallel to a situation, concerning India, Pakistan, and the now defunct Soviet Union.
The treaty between Bangladesh and India is closely modeled on a very similar treaty between the Soviet Union and India signed shortly before the Indian involvement in the Civil War that led to the independence of Bangladesh.
India invoked the treaty with the Soviet Union seeking support, to deter the intervention of the USA on the side of Pakistan in Bangladesh, The Soviet Union did offer total diplomatic (UN veto) , and military support including the mobilization of its own naval assets.
The tables were turned in 1979-80 when the Soviet Union planned to invade Afghanistan. The Soviets well knew that controlling Afghanistan, without controlling Pakistan was an impossibility. The Soviet Union was distracted with a NATO build up in Europe, and a Chinese build up on it's borders. The Soviet Union knew that it would not be possible to deploy enough forces to quickly overrun Pakistan, though a punishing air offensive could be maintained to temporarily deter Pakistani support to the Afghan resistance.
Getting India into the act was vital. Pakistan would not survive a simultaneous Indian and Soviet invasion. Pakistan had no nuclear weapons then and the Soviet Union was fully prepared to use all it's assets.
The Soviet Union called upon the Indian government headed by Morarji Desai under the terms of the treaty to consider initiating action on Pakistan's eastern border.
Morarji Desai was a pacifist and "Gandhian " and he refused. Had Indira Gandhi been in power with Natwar Singh as foreign minister there was a distinct chance of an anti-Pakistan coalition possibly involving Bangladesh as well ( because the Treaty could have had a chain effect). Morarji Desai declined, and even though his government was toppled due to internal political conflict ( which the Soviet Union helped!), his successor Charan Singh maintained the neutrality. The Soviet Union went ahead with the invasion carrying out air strikes on refugee camps along the Pakistan Afghan border but not directly attacking Pakistan's military assets.,The Soviet Union initially enjoyed complete air superiority and because of initial military successes in stopping the Afghan Mujahideen the Soviets did not view India's betrayal that seriously. They preferred to wait till a more Soviet friendly government was in power in India.

Indira Gandhi was voted back to power in 1980 but got too heavily involved in a Sikh insurgency in Punjab to risk a war with Pakistan.,
The rest is known...

India is unlikely to make the same mistake as the Soviet Union and will invoke the treaty ; assuming there is an unfriendly government in power in Bangladesh. A very remote possibility given the complete dominance of politicians in India's "pocket" and control of Bangladesh's mass media.
As for the young generation.
Very few in Bangladesh's new generation have a balanced view of Pakistan or even know much about the country.

Any links to this baibar ?

Morarji Desai declined, and even though his government was toppled due to internal political conflict ( which the Soviet Union helped)

 

[Bambi]

Its not so much about view

As i said 71 is a sensitive topic. But pakistan today does not impact anyone in BD in anyway other than what BD media portays. However indian policies play a direct impact on the people of BD. Get it? Who will YOU hate more? The boogey man the media plays on your face or the one who is literally exploiting you day in day out? Majority hates the awami league and India is a known supporter of awami league . who would you hate more, someone who slapped you today or someone who slapped you 50 years ago? Which hate will influwnce your desicision?

Assuming there is a Treaty, that treaty will be null and void, if BD military gets sufficient diplomatic protection from china, that pak enjoys or atleast close to that. As we talk things are going that way, do you think the chinese invested 30 billion in BD so that BD can play india's poodle? Or let the indians destroy that investment?

And anyway what will army do to support india?Unlike pakistan, in BD if the ordinary people are pissed of at govt or anyone, the uniformed force wont be able to protect that entity, regardless of who they are . there is videos on youtube if you search, of mob beating up army men. That should tell you something.

the way i see it, the best way forward is when a govt comes in BD that will realy extend the hand of friendship and cooperation to pak. Pak should work with that govt, an apology for 71' from pak will smoothen the process and disarm the oppositions in BD for such co operation.

however pak should not apoligise to awami league as that will only strengthen their image and will give them a diplomatic victory while pak gains nothing.

China and Bangladesh have a defense cooperation agreement

2002, China and Bangladesh signed a “Defence Cooperation Agreement

China is the only country with which Bangladesh has a formal defence cooperation agreement
@Baibars_1260

India-Bangladesh defence cooperation: Coming of age, at last?

India-Bangladesh defence cooperation: Coming of age, at last?

www.orfonline.org

Bangladesh-China relations have metamorphosed into a strategic partnership

Bangladesh is an important player among South Asian states for China’s political-military realism. Such strategic partnership with Dhaka provides Beijing with added leverage to check Indian forces,…

blogs.lse.ac.uk

China, Bangladesh sign landmark defence pact - Times of India

World News: BEIJING: A day after inking a landmark bilateral defence cooperation agreement, Chinese leaders on Wednesday described Bangladesh as "a reliable and t

m.timesofindia.com

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/bangladesh-chinese-defence-minister-visit-change-raises-eyebrows/

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

“Incidents of 1971 cannot be forgotten. The pain will remain forever,” BSS quoted Hasina as telling the Pakistani envoy.

Pakistani envoy meets Bangladeshi PM in sign of warming ties

Pakistani High Commissioner Imran Ahmed Siddiqui meets Sheikh Hasina as they pledge to improve bilateral relations.

www.aljazeera.com

We couldn't give a flying f**k if bangladeshis can or cannot forget the pain of 1971.

 

[Baibars_1260]

Its not so much about view

As i said 71 is a sensitive topic. But pakistan today does not impact anyone in BD in anyway other than what BD media portays. However indian policies play a direct impact on the people of BD. Get it? Who will YOU hate more? The boogey man the media plays on your face or the one who is literally exploiting you day in day out? Majority hates the awami league and India is a known supporter of awami league . who would you hate more, someone who slapped you today or someone who slapped you 50 years ago? Which hate will influwnce your desicision?

Assuming there is a Treaty, that treaty will be null and void, if BD military gets sufficient diplomatic protection from china, that pak enjoys or atleast close to that. As we talk things are going that way, do you think the chinese invested 30 billion in BD so that BD can play india's poodle? Or let the indians destroy that investment?

And anyway what will army do to support india?Unlike pakistan, in BD if the ordinary people are pissed of at govt or anyone, the uniformed force wont be able to protect that entity, regardless of who they are . there is videos on youtube if you search, of mob beating up army men. That should tell you something.

Once again, points well taken...
If Bangladesh maintains minimum neutrality it is a desirable situation.
A recap again...with Bangladesh in the picture.

In 1987 with the Soviets still in Afghanistan India launched a huge military mobilization of its air, naval and land armor assets to destroy Pakistan called Operation Brass Tacks.
This was right in the middle of a Bangladesh sponsored SAARC summit. The Pakistani prime minister was actually inside India attending the summit.
The objective on the Indian side was that Pakistan had to be quickly overrun before it was successful in it's quest for nuclear weapons. The offensive was planned by one of India's most capable COAS Krishna Swamy Sundarji.
It is entirely unconfirmed,? and this is hearsay only ( will let other PDF members comment), but India did reach out to Bangladesh for both diplomatic approval and military participation.
In any event Pakistan's quick counter mobilization and the degradation of Soviet capabilities in Afghanistan due to Majahideen activity resulted in the operation being called off.
Bangladesh maintained neutrality, but then Bangladesh had a far more neutral oriented government.
The minimum hope is that all governments in Bangladesh maintain neutrality in an India Pakistan conflict.

 

[xyx007]

This is our future

https://twitter.com/x/status/1347090086459011072

 

[Bambi]

Once again, points well taken...

A recap again...with Bangladesh in the picture.

In 1987 with the Soviets still in Afghanistan India launched a huge military mobilization of its air, naval and land armor assets to destroy Pakistan called Operation Brass Tacks.
This was right in the middle of a Bangladesh sponsored SAARC summit. The Pakistani prime minister was actually inside India attending the summit.
The objective on the Indian side was that Pakistan had to be quickly overrun before it was successful in it's quest for nuclear weapons. The offensive was planned by one of India's most capable COAS Krishna Swamy Sundarji.
It is entirely unconfirmed,? and this is hearsay only ( will let other PDF members comment), but India did reach out to Bangladesh for both diplomatic approval and military participation.
In any event Pakistan's quick counter mobilization and the degradation of Soviet capabilities in Afghanistan due to Majahideen activity resulted in the operation being called off.
Bangladesh maintained neutrality, but then Bangladesh had a far more neutral oriented government.
We hope all governments in Bangladesh maintain neutrality in an India Pakistan conflict.

Your dates are wrong baibar janab
Basstracks took place on 1986-1987
The Bangladesh summit took place on 1985
2 year gap between the two
Also it was the Pakistani president who came to the Bangladesh summit

 

[Baibars_1260]

We couldn't give a flying f**k if bangladeshis can or cannot forget the pain of 1971.

Which raises a very pertinent point
( Rhetoric aside).
- There is no real advantage in Pakistan making an outreach , beyond a certain point to Bangladesh.
There is nothing of value beyond a normal relationship as with any other South Asian nation like Sri Lanka.
SAARC is dead ironically killed by Bangladesh which had started it.
Non-participation by Bangladesh in any SAARC summit in Pakistan has effectively killed the association (and good riddance ! )

- Bangladeshi neutrality ( or otherwise) has little impact on Pakistan, other than a minor irritant.

- Bangladesh poses no military threat to Pakistan even in the hypothetical piggy backing on an Indian military adventure.
On the contrary any such move by Bangladesh does expose it to a ( hopefully) limited Pakistani retaliation.

We should move on.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Which raises a very pertinent point
( Rhetoric aside).
- There is no real advantage in Pakistan making an outreach , beyond a certain point to Bangladesh.
There is nothing of value beyond a normal relationship as with any other South Asian nation like Sri Lanka.
SAARC is dead ironically killed by Bangladesh which had started it.
Non-participation by Bangladesh in any SAARC summit in Pakistan has effectively killed the association (and good riddance ! )

- Bangladeshi neutrality ( or otherwise) has little impact on Pakistan, other than a minor irritant.

- Bangladesh poses no military threat to Pakistan even in the hypothetical piggy backing on an Indian military adventure.
On the contrary any such move by Bangladesh does expose it to a ( hopefully) limited Pakistani retaliation.

We should move on.

Truth is, the only 1 country our destiny and future lies with is China. Perhaps to some extent, Turkey too. Other than China and Turkey, all other countries are meaningless and irrelevant to Pakistan. Not including China and Turkey, Pakistan shouldn't dwell on foreign relations too much.

 

[Bambi]

Which raises a very pertinent point
( Rhetoric aside).
- There is no real advantage in Pakistan making an outreach , beyond a certain point to Bangladesh.
There is nothing of value beyond a normal relationship as with any other South Asian nation like Sri Lanka.
SAARC is dead ironically killed by Bangladesh which had started it.
Non-participation by Bangladesh in any SAARC summit in Pakistan has effectively killed the association (and good riddance ! )

- Bangladeshi neutrality ( or otherwise) has little impact on Pakistan, other than a minor irritant.

- Bangladesh poses no military threat to Pakistan even in the hypothetical piggy backing on an Indian military adventure.
On the contrary any such move by Bangladesh does expose it to a ( hopefully) limited Pakistani retaliation.

We should move on.

Non-participation by Bangladesh in any SAARC summit in Pakistan has effectively killed the association

Bangladesh did attend the 4th and 12th summit
Only the 19th summit was not attended by anyone due to Uri terror attacks

 

[Baibars_1260]

Truth is, the only 1 country our destiny and future lies with is China. Perhaps to some extent, Turkey too. Other than China and Turkey, all other countries are meaningless and irrelevant to Pakistan. Not including China and Turkey, Pakistan shouldn't dwell on foreign relations too much.

Couldn't agree more. China #1, Turkey, Malaysia,Iran.
Even in South Asia our priority should be Afghanistan and Myanmar
Our relationship with Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka is normal.
Bangladesh has very little if any significance.

 

[fitpOsitive]

The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.
Can Bangladeshi "neutrality" be taken for granted?
Is it far fetched to assume Bangladesh is not neutral, and does pose a very minuscule but still possible threat to Pakistan?

Let's look at the facts:

1.0 Overall picture:
Bangladesh has supported India in all its military actions against Pakistan since 1971.
2.0 Military interoperability and alliance:
Bangladesh and India have a formal economic and military alliance , and a complete interoperability and mutual logistics support amongst their armed forces. Bangladesh and Indian armed forces ( particularly the Bangladeshi Navy) exercise and war game with their Indian armed forces counterparts regularly with an undisguised identification of who the "enemy " is.
A large batch of Bangladeshi army officers graduate from India's defense academies ( NDA, Khadakvasla, Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, OTS Madras, ) as well as undergoing advanced training at institutions such as Wellington Staff College. Sharing common equipment BAF maintenance and flying personnel are regularly trained in India.,
2.0 The diplomatic angle:
The Indian Pakistan military confrontations ( Siachen 1985, Operation Brasstacks 1987, Kargil 1999, 2002, 2019, LOC shelling ) have nowhere involved Bangladesh or in anyway affected Bangladeshi security, yet diplomatically Bangladesh has completely sided with India both at international forums such as the UN (or what's left of SAARC ) and on a one on one level echoing the Indian foreign ministry statements and condemning Pakistan.
3.0 Bangladeshi military activity against Pakistan
So far Bangladesh has limited its activity mainly to observers such as during Operations Brass Tacks (1987). Also the BAF takes a keen interest in downed Pakistani military aircraft such as the recovered debris of the PN Breguet Atlantic shot down inside Pakistani airspace by an IAF Mig 21 in 1999.
4. Open threats to Pakistan :
Particularly in 2019 and also before, there have threats made by the foreign office of Bangladesh against Pakistan, echoing the Indian Ministry of Defense and senior Indian Military officers. The threats have been made by the Bangladesh Foreign office only , unlike their ally where chiefs of the three armed forces wings have usually issued threats The Bangladeshi COAS, BAF, ACM, and BN Admiralty have not been making any comments so far.

But why would Bangladesh get involved in an Indian conflict with Pakistan. The simple answer in theory is that there is a mutual defense pact which is supposed to work both ways and India can ask Bangladesh and Bhutan ( and possibly Nepal) to join in a coalition in a war with Pakistan.

The next question is why would India want to involve Bangladesh and Bhutan in a war against Pakistan and would Bangladesh agree.
The answer is that for propaganda purposes India would very much like to have Bangladeshi forces fighting alongside ( deja vu 1971) even though Indian armed forces commanders know that the real impact of Bangladesh's participation in a war with Pakistan would be minimal. Showing a "coalition" is a great diplomatic and psychological warfare feat. Other countries have done this such as the USA who frequently coopts allies in its wars even though their contribution is minimal.
The USA brought Mongolian troops to fight in Iraq as part of the "coalition". The presence of the Mongols ( all 100 of them) was to demoralize the Iraqis recalling the sack of Baghdad by Hulaku Khan in 1258 C.E. The Mongol contingent left after several of their troops were killed by Iraqi resistance.
It's the famous "Us vs You" psychological stance.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)
The war game:
We have already war gamed the India Pakistan ultimate showdown scenario and how the war would escalate into a nuclear blood bath so this article is confined to a limited war initiated and planned by the India Bangladesh Axis for a diplomatic and military humiliation of Pakistan where the war would be brief and limited holding the threshold just short of a full Pakistani collapse where Pakistan would use nuclear weapons as a last desperate act of retaliation.
It's a different topic but the war would only be waged when Bangladesh and India believe that Pakistan is sufficiently isolated from its traditional West Asian alliance and economically weakened through international sanctions.
Going forward.
Bangladesh's contribution to India's war effort.
Realistically what would be Bangladesh's contribution to India's military actions on Pakistan's eastern borders.
Air support:
A few BAF Su 30s would probably be flying operations in support of the IAF within Indian airspace . Much of the BAF support would be from transport aircraft as both India and Bangladesh fly C130Js. BAF Mil 17s would probably pitch in. It is doubtful given the training and lack of war experience that BAF would carry out air strikes inside Pakistan, unless they can miraculously come with worthy successors to Rafique and Saiful Azam.
Naval support:
Bangladesh Navy would probably be assisting Indian Navy operations in the Palk Straits trying to intercept Pakistani maritime traffic en-route to China
Army support :
Bangladesh would probably like to avoid casualties hoping for a grand re-enactment of 1971 with the heavy lifting done by India.
BA units are unlikely to be involved in direct fighting especially as there is a severe danger of heavy casualties from a tactical nuclear strike. A few BA units might be positioned as reserves in the rear to function as an occupation force once a portion of the front collapses. India would like to keep the occupied areas under "Muslim" alliance control as their armor moves deeper towards other objectives.
Hopefully the presence of Muslim troops will deter a partisan Mujahid resistance.

The ultimate war game
Pakistan does not share borders with Bangladesh and so there are fewer ways Pakistan can retaliate in a limited conflict. Bangladesh's forces have a huge advantage operating from friendly Indian territory.
. Pakistani submarines would doubtless target Bangladeshi commercial maritime traffic through the Arabian sea and BAF aircraft operating in Indian airspace would be fair game. Bangladesh Army units stationed in the rear of the IB within artillery and MRLS range would definitely be targeted.
We could war game a huge number of scenarios elsewhere but to conclude with the question:

In an ultimate Apocalypse Pakistan would be targeting Kolkata. Would Pakistan strike Dhaka and the rest of Bangladesh as well, knowing that the vast majority of the civilian deaths would be of our so called "brethren in faith" ?

Pakistan can safely assume that Bangladeshi are non existing. I mean just forget them.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Couldn't agree more. China #1, Turkey, Malaysia,Iran.
Even in South Asia our priority should be Afghanistan and Myanmar
Our relationship with Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka is normal.
Bangladesh has very little if any significance.

Truth is, are Pakistan and Afghanistan REALLY south asian like india, bangladesh and Sri-Lankan are? We Pakistanis don't even belong to the same race as indians, bangladeshis and Sri Lankans. Pakistan and Afghanistan are on the crux of south asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. Hence we are a regional Juxtaposition nation.

 

[El Sidd]

Pakistan can safely assume that Bangladeshi are no existing. I mean just forget them.

All tools are valuable. Even the most dirty most crude.